2015 D3 Season: NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

[TennesseeJed]

Chris Brown was the Great Lakes rep for the past few years.

Re JCU vs OWUin 2014, in the last regular season regional (Great Lakes) NSCAA ranking, OWU was ranked above JCU.  JCU and OWU both lost conference tournament games to Heidelberg and Kenyon, respectively.

http://www.nscaa.com/rankings/3948/NCAADivisionIII/men/GreatLakes/Poll11

OWU also ranked more highly than JCU in the 2014 last regular season national NSCAA poll:

http://www.nscaa.com/rankings/3954/NCAADivisionIII/men/Poll11

Guessing that made the difference for OWU over JCU last year? 

[PaulNewman]

Wasn't Chris Brown the regional representative for the Great Lakes for a number of the last few seasons?

And didn't OWU get in last year very questionably ahead of JCU?

I don't think that "biases" (as you may suggest) will play a role in it. If they did, OWU wouldn't have made the tournament last year.

It is too bad that the Case vs Kenyon game has not been rescheduled yet. I still think it was questionable to just cancel it. I'm curious why they didn't play it on 1 of their many training fields? It was a day game and the stadium field doesn't have lights so that shouldn't have been an issue. I imagine the training fields are in better condition than the game field.

NCAC, did you hear any more on this topic or if a re-scheduling has been discussed?

Midwest, Brown couldn't have kept OWU out even if he wanted to.  Martin is connected far beyond any clout Brown had.  Plus, OWU as regular season winner with no losses deserved to be in. JCU also deserved a bid but not over OWU. 

The situation could be different this year.  Let's assume 4 NCAC teams are fighting for 3 bids which is not a guarantee by any stretch especially with Case, CMU and Thomas More very much in the mix.  Kenyon could be in a position a very good DePauw team was 2 years ago IF the Lords drop points and/or lose to Oberlin, Wabash, or Denison, putting aside the OWU game.  Let's say they draw or lose to OWU and drop another game and then lose semi-final NCAC game, which in this scenario almost certainly would be an away game. I think they would be out.  So not much room for error.  A bid can come down to 1-2 plays you didn't make. Best case scenario would be winning all remaining home games, Denison or OWU beating DPU, and then Kenyon beating OWU.  I think they will pull through and barring anything fluky will be a handful for anyone in another month, but the DePauw loss hurts a lot.

I have no knowledge about the game with Case.  I've looked at both of their schedules, and while both have midweek openings they don't have them at the same time.  I don't see how they could play. Would be nice if Case could dump Waynesburg and play Kenyon that day.

[Midwest Soccer]

All good points. I think you may be putting too much stock into "clout" that Martin has. I agree with you that they deserved to be in last year, but had they dropped a conference game, I doubt Martin would have had the power to get them in. Just cause he's been around forever and knows people doesn't mean he can call in a favor to get an undeserving team in.

Agree with the Waynesburg game and Case. Case vs Kenyon would be great.

The NCAC is looking pretty darn good right now. Like you said, these teams are all hoping TMC takes care of their AQ and either Case/Carnegie does the same. Denison still being undefeated is impressive, DePauw already taking down Oberlin and Kenyon has them in the best shape of all of them to take the crown in my opinion.

[PaulNewman]

Midwest, I think CMU may be done.  The draw with Westminster (PA) was not a good omen.

As for Martin I would never underestimate his clout with ADs, SIDs, committees, press releases and media folks, referees, etc.  Phenomenal coach who apparently treats his players well, wins loyalty and has a deep alumni bench, and a master psychologist who knows how to drop a nugget or two strategically at just the right time. Given his legendary success I can't argue with any edges that come OWU's way.

[PaulNewman]

A couple of results lost in the chaos....Haverford knocked off Gettysburg to keep the 'Fords alive, and Macalester stays unbeaten with a big win over St Olaf.  Shaping up to be the Scots' best season in quite a few years.

[PaulNewman]

You're not gonna believe this...Whitworth 1-1 in 2nd OT with George Fox (a college).

1-1 FINAL

[TennesseeJed]

A couple of results lost in the chaos....Haverford knocked off Gettysburg to keep the 'Fords alive, and Macalester stays unbeaten with a big win over St Olaf.  Shaping up to be the Scots' best season in quite a few years.

I had been watching the Gettysburg scores closely.  They're on my radar because a couple of close friends are alums and former G'burg athletes. Really surprising that the Bullets had such trouble with Hopkins and Haverford after a 7-0-1 start and the tie being Messiah.  The early season games weren't that tough overall but I'd have given them the nod in both games.  Massey definitely favored them strongly.  Rest of the season is looking tough for the Bullets right now with F&M and Dickinson still to go... I had really high hopes for them but it's hard to be optimistic now about their NCAA run in 2015.

It really doesn't take much in a halfway decent conference to lose your bid...all teams on the bubble take notice!!

[lastguyoffthebench]

SUNYAC or NJAC will be taking a bid away from NESCAC.     NJAC looks to be wide open this year.

I do recall stating over 4 losses for Tufts and over 3.5 losses for Messiah prior to the season.  Both will need to earn the AQ to dance in November.   Still, the start to Wheaton's season is the shocker...

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

A couple of results lost in the chaos....Haverford knocked off Gettysburg to keep the 'Fords alive, and Macalester stays unbeaten with a big win over St Olaf.  Shaping up to be the Scots' best season in quite a few years.

I had been watching the Gettysburg scores closely.  They're on my radar because a couple of close friends are alums and former G'burg athletes. Really surprising that the Bullets had such trouble with Hopkins and Haverford after a 7-0-1 start and the tie being Messiah.  The early season games weren't that tough overall but I'd have given them the nod in both games.  Massey definitely favored them strongly.  Rest of the season is looking tough for the Bullets right now with F&M and Dickinson still to go... I had really high hopes for them but it's hard to be optimistic now about their NCAA run in 2015.

It really doesn't take much in a halfway decent conference to lose your bid...all teams on the bubble take notice!!

Some of those other teams also have tough games remaining. Haverford for example has this in their next 5:
Wed. 7     at Rutgers-Camden         
Sat. 10   Dickinson *         
Tue. 13   Catholic         
Sat. 17   Muhlenberg *         
Sat. 24   #2 Franklin & Marshall *

Keep in mind they have 2 more games after those 5. Could go 1-3-1 and their season would be over. They already have 3 losses. 2 more and they are probably done IMO. F&M could be a loss as well as Camden and Dickinson. I see them going 2-2-1 in this stretch but they need to go at least 2-1-2 to keep their hopes alive. Hopkins and Gettysburg are good wins and they are sitting at 4-0 in conference but they have the toughest slate ahead.

As for Gettysburg, they have been a surprise in my book this year. In their last 6 they have to face F&M and Dickinson then some other "easier" teams (still not easy games though). If they go 3-2-1 in their last 6 and end up 10-4-2 headed into conference I think they have a shot at a bid but it would depend on how they do in conference playoffs.

Time shall tell but the Centennial is a toss up and I still think they are only getting 2 bids even if F&M wins the league. There are too many other good teams this year across the country to snub this year. Last year we talked about 4 or 5 teams that got snubbed for Dickinson...that won't happen this year because then the committee will be snubbing 9-10 teams then.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Here is my top 5 poll (half prediction and half opinion/bias):

1. Amherst        8-0-0
2. Brandesis      9-1-0
3. F&M              10-0-0
4. CNU               8-0-3
5. Oneonta St.  8-2-1

I think 3 of the best teams in the country are in that top 5 (1,2,5) and the other 2 teams are there because of their record and historical performance (F&M and CNU). All 5 teams are good and deserve to be where they are at, but I do not think you will see F&M and CNU anywhere near the Final 4 come December.

[Mr.Right]

SUNYAC or NJAC will be taking a bid away from NESCAC.     NJAC looks to be wide open this year.

I do recall stating over 4 losses for Tufts and over 3.5 losses for Messiah prior to the season.  Both will need to earn the AQ to dance in November.   Still, the start to Wheaton's season is the shocker...

Nescac still will get 3 teams to the NCAA's IMO...with a possibility of a 4th. Amherst and Midd should be locks at this point. Wesleyan and Conn are close and need to keep winning. As for Tufts, Bowdoin and Williams they need to win OUT and reach the Nescac Final. I do not think any of them will be able to do that.

[lastguyoffthebench]

http://herosports.com/conference-standings/d3-mens-soccer-conference-rankings/?utm_source=HERO+Master&utm_campaign=12daaf21c8-MSoc10.5.2015&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_25ee8a514c-12daaf21c8-83879837#

NCAC is in Rodney Dangerfield territory, no respect!

[Flying Weasel]

2014 Elite 8 Teams
Tufts (5-3-1) (2014: 16-2-4)
Wheaton (Ill.) (6-3-1) (2014: 22-4-0)
Oneonta State (8-2-1) (2014: 21-1-2)
Ohio Wesleyan (8-2-2) (2014: 17-5-4)
Messiah (6-3-1) (2014: 21-1-1)
Brandeis (9-1-0) (2014: 19-3-1)
Trinity (Texas) (9-2-0) (2014: 24-2-0)
Christopher Newport (8-0-3) (2014: 19-3-5)

2014: 159-21-17 (.850) - overall
2014: 133-16-12 (.863) - regualr season
2015: 59-16-9 (.756) - first 5 weeks

• Three teams with three losses already.
• Collectively already as many losses through 5 weeks as in the entire regular season & conf. playoffs last year,
• Collectively averaging 2 losses in first 5 weeks after average just 2.6 losses for the entire 2014 season incl. the NCAA tournament.

And you have these 2014 Sweet 16 teams also struggling:
Wartburg (8-3-1) (2014: 13-4-6)
Loras (6-3-1) (2014: 17-3-2)
Cortland State (6-3-2) (2014: 16-5-1)
Muhlenberg (3-5-1) (2014: 15-2-3)


Reminds me of when only one of the 2010 Final Four teams even made the tournament the next year, and two went on to have losing records.  In fact, of the 2010 Elite 8 teams, only four made the 2011 tournament and only two managed to win a tournament game (of course, those two went to the final)

2010 Elite 8 Teams (2010 record / 2011 record)
Messiah (23-1-0 / 18-1-1) - one-and-done in NCAA's
Lynchburg (20-5-1 / 7-9-4) - missed NCAA's
UW-Oshkosh (20-1-3 / 10-6-2) - missed NCAA's
Bowdoin (15-2-4 / 4-7-3) - missed NCAA's
Ohio Wesleyan (19-2-2 / 23-2-0) - 2011 Champion
Calvin (16-3-5 / 19-6-2) - 2011 runner-up
Middlebury (16-4-1 / 8-4-4) - missed NCAA's
Merchant Marine (13-3-5 / 11-7-1) - one-and-done in NCAA's

2010: 142-21-21 (.829)
2011: 100-42-17 (.682)


So as bizarre as this season (2015) seems, it isn't on pace to be a bad as the 2011 season was.

[lastguyoffthebench]

HERO......................................MASSEY
1)Amherst...............................Amherst
2)MSU....................................F&M
3)Calvin..................................MA-Boston
4)Brandeis..............................MSU
5)Oneonta St...........................Oneonta St
6)Loras...................................Brandeis
7)Middlebury...........................Eastern
8)F&M....................................Kenyon
9)Wesleyan.............................Calvin
10)Messiah..............................Thomas More
11)Tufts..................................Rowan
12)Kenyon...............................Denison
13)Bowdoin.............................Wesleyan
14)Haverford...........................Middlebury
15)Stevens Tech......................Plattsburgh St
16)CNU...................................RPI
17)SLU...................................SLU
18)Rutgers-Camden.................Whitworth
19)Chicago..............................Haverford
20)Rutgers-Newark..................Postdam St
21)North Park.........................Skidmore
22)Dickinson...........................E-town
23)Wheaton (IL).....................Case Western
24)Wheaton (MA)....................Kean
25)Kean.................................DePauw

Sometime this week I'll post the side-by-side SOS of Massey and Hero ratings just for general info. 

[Flying Weasel]

http://herosports.com/conference-standings/d3-mens-soccer-conference-rankings/?utm_source=HERO+Master&utm_campaign=12daaf21c8-MSoc10.5.2015&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_25ee8a514c-12daaf21c8-83879837#

NCAC is in Rodney Dangerfield territory, no respect!

Just another example of how unreliable and unrealistic the Bennett rankings are, and why I don't really pay them any attention.  The SAA ahead of the NCAC this year . . ., any year?!?!?!?  Com' on!  The MAC Commonwealth and Landmark as well?!? Just to cite the most ridiculous, as the NCAC could/should be much farther up.  And someone should tell them that the WIAC doesn't exist anymore on the men's side.  Calvin at #3, Wesleyan at #9, Messiah at #10, Bowdoin at #13, Haverford at #14, Rutgers-Newark at #20, etc...  Really?  I know some of you on here like to use and reference the Bennett rankings. I just don't see the point.