2015 D3 Season: NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

[PaulNewman]

Macalester a strange 6-0-5 after drawing with GAC.  Impressive stretch of 2-0-1 against Luther, St Olaf, and GAC.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Messiah has given up 3 goals in the first 2 conference games of the year...the Falcons only gave up 2 goals in all of conference play last season which includes conference playoffs.....

[Domino1195]

Domino's post today on Denison triggered a vague memory that the Big Red went on a preseason overseas trip.  I checked, and they did indeed go to the Netherlands in August.

I'm curious if posters have anecdotal evidence of teams doing particularly well in seasons preceded by an overseas trip.  In recent years I recall Brandeis, OWU, and Rochester going on trips.  I don't know why any relatively strong program wouldn't take advantage of the rule allowing these trips (once every 4 years, correct?), and I know Kenyon is such a school that has not had an overseas experience (at least not in the last 4-5 years). 

Two things that would seem to benefit good teams (i.e. teams that have expectations of "being in the mix") are 1) an early season trip out of region to play at least one really good team or at least two decent teams; and 2) an overseas training/team bonding experience.  One can wonder if Brandeis benefited from their trip out to Texas given their current impressive standing nationally.

I got to see Denison in the spring - versus Ohio Dominican, Capital and University of Northern Ohio (NAIA team that goes to the final 8 often - not a single American on their squad this season I believe).  Denison was the least effective on that day - could have been missing players,etc.  But this season they start 2 freshman versus the team we saw in the spring - is that the improvement that puts them inthe top 25?  I think not.  Maybe it was the bonding experience of going away in August: whatever it is they are all pulling in the same direction.

Interesting commentary about Chelsea last weekend - how dysfunctional they are this season, yet most of the players are the same as last year.  Allusions to problems in the locker room, etc. But whatever it is they are - they are not functioning like a team.

Sometimes losing one or two seniors can impact a team beyond what statistics measure.  On field leadership, the field general, organizer, cheer leader - these things don't show in boxscores except for the drastic change in results from one season to the next.  I think OWU went through that at the beginning of last year; new leadership emerged and they went about business as usual.

Maybe some of the teams some think are under-performing are suffering from similar intangibles that impact a teams performance.  For those who watch teams like Messiah and Wheaton: was there a leadership change - if so - has new leadership emerged or is it likely to emerge before October ends? 

Just positing some thoughts . . .

[lastguyoffthebench]

Upset special of the day... Babson at home over MA-Boston.   

Would this game even be considered an upset at this point?  Not familiar with MA-Boston at all...

[NERevs127]

Upset special of the day... Babson at home over MA-Boston.   

Would this game even be considered an upset at this point?  Not familiar with MA-Boston at all...

Babson is definitely having a down year compared to their norm. I think MA-Boston pulls this one out.

My upset of the day is Conn College over Eastern Connecticut. I'm not sold on either MA-Boston or ECSU yet this season.

[Brother Flounder]

Upset special of the day... Babson at home over MA-Boston.   

Would this game even be considered an upset at this point?  Not familiar with MA-Boston at all...

Babson is definitely having a down year compared to their norm. I think MA-Boston pulls this one out.

My upset of the day is Conn College over Eastern Connecticut. I'm not sold on either MA-Boston or ECSU yet this season.

Ill take Conn College also...

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

My upset alert watch of the day are Misericordia over Dickinson and Susquehanna over Etown.

Other games to watch are Haverford at Camden, Scranton at Drew, Salisbury at St. Marys, Rowan at Swat, and Union vs RPI...could be a trap game for RPI as they look ahead to their clash with St. Lawrence but I don't see them losing back to back conference games.

My predictions are as follows:

Dickinson 2
Misericordia 2

Susquehanna 1
Etown 0

Camden 3
Haverford 2

Scranton 2
Drew 0

St. Mary's 0
Salisbury 1

Rown 3
Swat 1

RPI 2
Union 1

[Mr.Right]

Neither of those are UPSETS... ECONN will sit 10 deep against CONN and try to frustrate them. Conn needs to get a quick lead and they should be ok.

[All NESCAC]

Upset special of the day... Babson at home over MA-Boston.   

Would this game even be considered an upset at this point?  Not familiar with MA-Boston at all...

Babson is definitely having a down year compared to their norm. I think MA-Boston pulls this one out.

My upset of the day is Conn College over Eastern Connecticut. I'm not sold on either MA-Boston or ECSU yet this season.

I'll take Conn College today and it won't be an upset.  Conn vastly outplayed EConn last year, but as was their story last year couldn't put away the multitude of chances they had.  Conn has a couple of very good frosh strikers Leon and Lockwood to go with Devlin in the middle and they will find a way to break through. 

[lastguyoffthebench]

UPSETS

Manhattanville over Stevens
St. Mary's over Salisbury (not really a big upset, IMO).
Scranton over Drew in OT
Aurora vs MSOE DRAW
Cal Lutheran (2-8-2) to atleast Draw at Occidental (7-1-3)
UW-O over Wheaton (Ill).
PSU-Harrisburg over York DRAW
Oberlin vs Case Western DRAW
MSU at TCNJ DRAW

[Mr.Right]

The issue with ECONN all of a sudden is that those early season wins over Muhlen and Babson do not look that good to the committee as they usually would. The Wesleyan win on the road is a big one and a Conn win today and UMASS Boston win would do it I would think.

[PaulNewman]

NCAC's Barber Shop Trash Talk

The parity theme held water for a while but the dam is about to break.  Oneonta and OWU after early stumbles are right where they want to be.  Does anyone doubt that Loras and Trinity (TX) will be Sweet 16 teams in the West?  Wheaton (Ill) has really stumbled but how many of us think they won't win the the CCIW?  Wheaton may even lose or draw to UW-Oshkosh tonight, but would you feel more than a little nervous about your team playing the Thunder in the 1st or 2nd round of the NCAA tournament?  Perhaps we underestimated the impact of a coaching change, as we also see Williams struggling, but in the case of Wheaton I think the Thunder will be a force to reckon with in November.  Tufts?  The Jumbos are in a little more trouble being in the NESCAC, but again, I expect their quality to come through for a bid and the Jumbos ironically will be more feared as the tourney begins than they were a year ago.  Tufts losing to Middlebury might make me change my mind, but I don't see that happening.  Tufts should also benefit from the relative lack of at-large competition in New England this season.  Messiah?  Same deal as Wheaton, and the Falcons will almost have to throw a game to miss out on an AQ.  Yes, Lycoming is good and a challenge, but Lycoming can't match the Falcons once the latter finish working out their kinks.  Anyone really hoping their team gets the Falcons that first weekend of the NCAAs?  Messiah's game with W&L will be an underrated tilt this weekend as the Generals are leading the ODAC.

How good is Brandeis?  A few seem a little down on the Judge's performance last night, but I watched most of that game and always thought Brandeis was more likely to score with the one exception of the shot MIT flubbed right around the 12 which should have given the Engineers the game.  Bottom line is that Brandeis did not LOSE, as as the OTs were going I was trying to rememeber the last time they lost a game in OT....maybe away to Chicago last year...but over the last two years they have prevailed in a bunch of tight ones, which I think speaks to the consistency of their approach, competitiveness, leadership, and overall expectations to win.  MIT obviously is pretty darn good, and this was a mid-week game after much recent success that I thought was ripe for Brandeis to lose.  As for the offense, yes, we can want more, but they did lay the wood to Carnegie Mellon for 4 goals.

I expect Brandeis to use the MIT game as a wake-up call and get a win over Case, which makes Case's game tonight with Oberlin even more critical.  Case certainly doesn't want to take on Brandeis after what would be considered a bad loss, but that said, Oberlin is solid with a dangerous offensive player.  I'm pikcing Case tonight, but a 2-1 Oberlin win wouldn't surprise me at all.

I tend to agree with the predictions above for Babson beating UMass-Boston.  Babson has been disappointing, but as long as team chemistry isn't badly splintering, I see the Beavers as an underperforming squad that is always a decent bet to follow up a loss with a good result.  The Babson game represents a great opportunity for UMass-Boston.  Will this be a start of 3 losses inside of two weeks for the Beacons (ECSU next and then MIT later), or will they prove that they can more than compete on equal footing with traditionally bigger reputation schools?  I also favor Conn Coll over ECSU, but mostly because Conn lost a tough one to ECSU last year and it's hard to see ECSU winning two years in a row.

WPI plays at Wentworth tonight, the latter cooling after a hot start.  This one could be a struggle for WPI.

In the bigger picture I've got my eye on Haverford and Wesleyan, two teams that if they make the tournament could go on runs to the Sweet Sixteen.  Haverford @Camden has got to be the game of the day.

[Mr.Right]

Wesleyan still has A LONG WAY to go...They still have to play Williams, Amherst, Midd, and Conn

[PaulNewman]

Wesleyan still has A LONG WAY to go...They still have to play Williams, Amherst, Midd, and Conn

Agreed.  That's why I hedged with IF they make it.  What do you figure they to do in those 4 games?  Is 2-2 enough, or do they need 2-1-1, and at least semis of NESCAC tourney?

Let's take a guess at the Pool Cs (by conference and not necessarily exact teams).....

NESCAC -- 3
NJAC -- 3
UAA -- 2-3
NCAC -- 2
Centennial -- 1-2
Liberty -- 1-2
NEWMAC -- 1?
Out West -- 1

That's 17 Pool Cs right there, not considering any extras for any other conferences yet.

Forgot about the SUNYAC.  Let's give them a Pool C and now we're at 18.

[blooter442]

NCAC's Barber Shop Trash Talk

Is this going to be a regular thing? I would very much support this being a weekly post. Fantastic name, too.