2015 D3 Season: NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

[PaulNewman]

NCAC's Barber Shop Trash Talk

Is this going to be a regular thing? I would very much support this being a weekly post. Fantastic name, too.

Haha....once you start a weekly official thing for the site then I will commit to an unofficial thing. 

[Mr.Right]

Wesleyan still has A LONG WAY to go...They still have to play Williams, Amherst, Midd, and Conn

Agreed.  That's why I hedged with IF they make it.  What do you figure they to do in those 4 games?  Is 2-2 enough, or do they need 2-1-1, and at least semis of NESCAC tourney?

Let's take a guess at the Pool Cs (by conference and not necessarily exact teams).....

NESCAC -- 3
NJAC -- 3
UAA -- 2-3
NCAC -- 2
Centennial -- 1-2
Liberty -- 1-2
NEWMAC -- 1?
Out West -- 1

That's 17 Pool Cs right there, not considering any extras for any other conferences yet.

Forgot about the SUNYAC.  Let's give them a Pool C and now we're at 18.

Still to early but I do not see the NJAC getting 3 Pool C's. I do not think the NEWMAC gets 1 either. Liberty might get 1 but not 2. Nescac will not get 3 if they keep beating each other up. UAA might only get 2...who knows yet. We will know better in 2 weeks. Wesleyan can only have 1 more loss IMO. They need a draw with Amherst. Amherst will be ready for them this year though as they will have a chip on their shoulder from last year. I could see Amherst winning that game 2 or 3-0. Frankly, I think Conn has a better schedule left and is a better team than Wesleyan. If Conn can get a result with ECONN, Bowdoin and somehow at least a draw with Amherst they could be good.

[PaulNewman]

Wesleyan still has A LONG WAY to go...They still have to play Williams, Amherst, Midd, and Conn

Agreed.  That's why I hedged with IF they make it.  What do you figure they to do in those 4 games?  Is 2-2 enough, or do they need 2-1-1, and at least semis of NESCAC tourney?

Let's take a guess at the Pool Cs (by conference and not necessarily exact teams).....

NESCAC -- 3
NJAC -- 3
UAA -- 2-3
NCAC -- 2
Centennial -- 1-2
Liberty -- 1-2
NEWMAC -- 1?
Out West -- 1

That's 17 Pool Cs right there, not considering any extras for any other conferences yet.

Forgot about the SUNYAC.  Let's give them a Pool C and now we're at 18.

Still to early but I do not see the NJAC getting 3 Pool C's. I do not think the NEWMAC gets 1 either. Liberty might get 1 but not 2. Nescac will not get 3 if they keep beating each other up. UAA might only get 2...who knows yet. We will know better in 2 weeks. Wesleyan can only have 1 more loss IMO. They need a draw with Amherst. Amherst will be ready for them this year though as they will have a chip on their shoulder from last year. I could see Amherst winning that game 2 or 3-0. Frankly, I think Conn has a better schedule left and is a better team than Wesleyan. If Conn can get a result with ECONN, Bowdoin and somehow at least a draw with Amherst they could be good.

Who in NJAC doesn't get a bid out of MSU, Camden, Kean, Rowan, and maybe Newark?

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Rowan and Newark until Kean stumbles IMO.

[lastguyoffthebench]

The NJAC is going to punish each other.  I think only 3 bids this year, but could be 4.


MINUTES TRAILED DURING SEASON
F&M and Calvin have not trailed this season
Amherst has only trailed once (28 min vs Williams)
Denison has only trailed once (25 min vs Capital)
Eastern has only trailed once by two goals (41 min vs Arcadia), won 3-2
Whitworth has only trailed once (54 min vs George Fox)
Kean has only trailed twice (52 min vs Swat + 17 min vs TCNJ)
Brandeis has trailed twice (32 min vs Hardin Simmons + 88 min vs Trinity)
Kenyon has trailed 3x (107 minutes)
CNU has trailed 5x (168 minutes)

[lastguyoffthebench]

Nearly impossible to determine who will come out of the NJAC this early in the season:

South Atlantic
CAC:  CNU (MW, Salisbury challenging); only a two bid league if CNU fails to win the AQ
NJAC: MSU (RUC, Rowan, Stockton, Kean, RUN, TCNJ challenging);  Kean, RUN, TCNJ on the outside looking in.
ODAC: Lynchburg (one bid league)
SAA: Millsaps (one bid league)
USAC:  Maryville or NC Wesleyan (one bid league)

Emory remaining schedule 6-3-1.  9-5-3 with a strong SOS will not be enough...
10/10 vs. Washington U.  Draw
10/16 at Case Western Reserve * Loss 
10/18 at Carnegie Mellon * Win
10/21 vs. Birmingham-Southern  Win   
10/30 vs. Brandeis * Loss
11/1 vs. New York University  Win   
11/7 vs. Rochester Draw

[lastguyoffthebench]

NESCAC -- 3) Middlebury, Wesleyan, ?
NJAC -- 2) Camden, Rowan
UAA -- 3) Case Western, Washington (MO), possibly Rochester OR Chicago.  South Atlantic too deep for Emory to snag a spot.
NCAC -- 2) Denison, DePauw
Centennial -- 1) Haverford
Liberty -- 1) SLU OR RPI
CAC -- 1) CNU or Salisbury
SUNYAC -- 2) Plattsburgh St, Potsdam St
NEWMAC -- 0
Little East - 1) MA-Boston OR ECSU
Out West -- 1

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

I've watched F&M play twice this season and have not been impressed at all. They do not look like a #1 team IMO. I did not see the Etown game so maybe they play up or down depending on the opponent but either way I don't think they will be in the Final 4 come December based off of what I have seen so far.

[Mr.Right]

NESCAC -- 3) Middlebury, Wesleyan, ?
NJAC -- 2) Camden, Rowan
UAA -- 3) Case Western, Washington (MO), possibly Rochester OR Chicago.  South Atlantic too deep for Emory to snag a spot.
NCAC -- 2) Denison, DePauw
Centennial -- 1) Haverford
Liberty -- 1) SLU OR RPI
CAC -- 1) CNU or Salisbury
SUNYAC -- 2) Plattsburgh St, Potsdam St
NEWMAC -- 0
Little East - 1) MA-Boston OR ECSU
Out West -- 1

Potsdam at 7-3-1 I think is cooked. That SLU win is about it

[lastguyoffthebench]

F&M has really played any strong opponents...  We will find out just how good they are during this stretch:

10/17 at Johns Hopkins * •  1:00 PM   Draw
10/20 at Muhlenberg * •  7:00 PM    Win
10/24 at Haverford * •  2:00 PM    Loss
10/28 at Gettysburg * •  7:00 PM  Win
10/31 vs. Dickinson * •  6:00 PM  Draw

4 road games, so it would not surpise me to see F&M rack up 3 blemishes during the last 5... 

[PaulNewman]

lastguy, so who do you have missing out in the NCAC, Kenyon or OWU?  DPU is in driver's seat at moment for regular season, but, yes, AQ goes to tournament winner.

Great work on that minutes trailing post.  How did that even come into your head, lol?

[PaulNewman]

The NEWMAC tournament will be a toss-up between WPI, MIT, Babson and Wheaton.  The key is qualifying for the tournament to have a chance.  Very solid win for Babson but does nothing for them in terms of getting in NEWMAC tourney.  WPI likely only team with a shot at a Pool C but very low SOS may be a killer, although presumably SOS will rise over next few weeks.  And maybe MIT has a shot at a Pool C if they can limit themselves to one more loss and get to NEWMAC final.

[PaulNewman]

Washington & Lee, coached by Penn grad (I think) and former state coaching director in Mass and MIT coach, very quietly at 5-0 in the ODAC.  When was last time W&L made the tournament?  Definitely going to check out the Generals vs Messiah this weekend.  Roger Mudd I'm sure is pleased.

[Gregory Sager]

Wheaton (Ill) has really stumbled but how many of us think they won't win the the CCIW?

Well, after one match Wheaton's already a full game behind North Park in the standings. NPU beat an 8-2 outfit on the road (granted, Millikin's never been anything to write home about on the soccer pitch prior to this season), while Wheaton was upended by an Elmhurst squad that was 2-6-1 coming into the match.

I think NPU has a good shot at winning the CCIW. Then again, I freely admit that I'm not exactly objective about this subject.

[PaulNewman]

Apologies Mr. Sager.  I always have a voice in my head that says "Don't forget about that North Park guy."

Seriously, I was thinking about North Park when I wrote that and I did realize Wheaton already has a conference loss.  I'm figuring that by the time the CCIW tournament comes around your North Park may already be feeling good about nabbing one of those last 2-3 remaining Pool Cs and that Wheaton will be playing with mad desperation knowing that they have to win the AQ to get in.  In full disclosure, I've learned that, just like in the movies, "the bad guy" isn't dead when you think he's dead....like when you open the shower curtain and he's magically standing there with a menacing, blood-curdling laugh right at you.