2015 D3 Season: NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Messiah down 2-0 with 10 to play.  Well, if it wasn't already off the table, a loss today certainly removes all chance of an at-large berth.  This was the only remaining chance for a win versus a potentially ranked team (of course, the catch-22 being that a win would have reduced the chances Lycoming is ranked).  Conference champs or bust at this point.

UPDATE: It's a final from Williamsport, PA.  Lycoming 2, Messiah 0.

Yes FW you are correct. One off the cross bar from 18 out and then another one saved off the goal line from a corner kick. Could have easily been 4-0. Messiah's fitness level dropped in the second half. The first half was fairly even but the second half was all Lycoming. Lycoming is for real as I have been saying since I have seen their game vs Rochester. They didn't score that game but owned UR.Same thing tonight except they owned for a half not the entire game but found a way to score. Both teams are very very good.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Box Score: Messiah vs Lycoming

Team Statistics
Statistic   1   2   T
SHOTS
MESSM   5   8   13 (5)
LYCOM   4   10   14 (6)
SAVES
MESSM   1   3   4
LYCOM   2   3   5
CORNER KICKS
MESSM   0   1   1
LYCOM   3   2   5
OFFSIDES
MESSM   0   0   0
LYCOM   1   0   1
() Shots On Goal.

[TennesseeJed]

DePauw trailing Wittenberg 1-2  with 17' left in 2H.

[PaulNewman]

Some stunning results today...

Lycoming beating Messiah, and the way described, may not be a surprise to some but it's still stunning for the result to come to fruition.

Kean is up 3-0 on Montclair late.

DePauw was losing to Wittenberg but last I checked was 2-2.

Bridgewater State beat Wheaton at Wheaton 2-0.

Midd, after losing last year to Castleton, barely beats Castleton 2-1.

In other news, St Johns got big win over GAC and St Thomas beat St Olaf.  Oneonta handled Hamilton.  OWU is hammering Wooster 7-0 with time left.

DePauw going OT.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Salisbury tied 0-0 today against Marymount. I guess that means they will move up 5 spots in the next poll 

[lastguyoffthebench]

NJAC is total chaos.   Any of the 6 that make it will have a legit shot to win the AQ.   Slowly working it's way to a 2 bid league.  The Kean result was a total shocker.   Haven't looked at the box score yet, but I'm guessing the tall target, Kherlopian had a brace.

CAC, IMO is between CNU and York.

[Flying Weasel]

Yeah, that Kean-Montclair scoreline was a shocker.  Given Kean's results to date, a close game going either way wouldn't have been a shocker, 3-0 to Kean!!!  FIrst goal was a PK in the first half.  Stats favored MSU slightly.  It continues to be a wild and crazy season.

[PaulNewman]

Great job as usual on the NCAA rankings process.  One quibble would be that I haven't seen anyone pooh pooh the national rankings.  Points were made about their lack of relevance for the NCAA regional rankings, but otherwise there has been more buzz, interest, and posting around the national and regional rankings each week than the last few years, including a good number of posters predicting and/or offering their own suggestions regarding the weekly rankings.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Messiah down 2-0 with 10 to play.  Well, if it wasn't already off the table, a loss today certainly removes all chance of an at-large berth.  This was the only remaining chance for a win versus a potentially ranked team (of course, the catch-22 being that a win would have reduced the chances Lycoming is ranked).  Conference champs or bust at this point.

UPDATE: It's a final from Williamsport, PA.  Lycoming 2, Messiah 0.

FW,

The only other team that the Falcons have left that could be ranked is Arcadia who is sitting at 8-3-3 (2-0-2). They lost to F&M 4-0 then lost to Eastern 3-2 in OT the next day after having a 2-0 lead. Lost at Kings 2-1. They have tied Marywood, Alvernia and Lycoming. Only good win is probably Misericordia who is struggling this year. Alvernia and Lycoming ties are good. Depending on how bad the Centennial teams beat each other up they might slip into the #9 or #10 spot in the region. Unlikely IMO but there is a glimmer of hope for that and the Messiah faithful. Especially if they finish 12-4-3 with Messiah being the other loss...they could sneak in to the 10 spot.

Also if Messiah finishes 13-4-1 as I expect them to, or maybe 12-4-2, win the semi-final playoff game and lose in the final and finish 14-5-1 do you think they have any chance of getting in? I mean we saw Dickinson not win a game in literally the final month of the season and somehow make the tournament with an 11-5-2 record. I think Messiah's name carries a lot of weight that people are under estimating. I would take a 14-5-1 Messiah team over an 11-5-2 Dickinson team any year. Just curious on your thoughts!

[Flying Weasel]

Well, regarding Arcadia, it's that catch-22.  If Messiah beats them to get the win versus ranked, they reduce Arcadia's chances to be ranked.  I can't see Arcadia being ranked if they lose to Messiah, can you?

I am wholely convinced after closely following and studying the rankings and at-large selections for over a decade that name recognition has not gotten anybody an at-large berth.  Messiah would be the ultimate test of that, as there is no bigger name, but the committee has shown themselves to be very quantitative/numbers-driven in their approach and selections. In my opinion, they let the numbers decide too much at the expense of human discernment and judgment. But most of the criteria laid out in the manual for them to apply can be quantified.  However, I would argue that the manual says those are the things to consider, it doesn't say they must select the team with the higher SOS, or greater number of wins versus ranked teams (are two wins against the #7 and #8 teams more impressive than a single win versus the #2 team in the region?), etc.  But by making it as quantitative as possible, they can much more easily explain and defend their selections. Heck, it can make the decision-making process quicker and easier. Anyway, I don't see Messiah's name helping them unless they are in a tie-breaker for the last at-large berth.  And even then, that situation could go either way.  Maybe some committee members are sick and tired of Messiah's dominance and would go with the other team in a tie-break situation.  Right now, it's hard to see Messiah's numbers (win pct., SOS, and wins vs. ranked) getting them positioned to even be in the discussion for at-large berths.  But we will know soon enough with the regional rankings letting us know where they stand in the eyes of the committee.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Like I said that would put Arcadia at 12-4-3 so possibly but I doubt it. Think they will end up around 11 or 12 and won't make the top 8. Too many other teams that can jump them like Kings who has the win over Arcadia etc... As for name recognition the only team I can think of is Rochester. They were like 8-5-3 and made it one year I think? But other than that you are right. And I think it is great to have Messiah in the tournament. Are people sick of them? Probably. But do people love to watch them(whether it's to hope they lose or to admire their style)? Yes. But at the end of the day it does come down to numbers. With how crazy everything has been I would not be surprised if they made it and I would not be surprised if they didn't make it. Messiah is now 0-4 vs potentially NCAA ranked/currently NSCAA ranked opponents. Not a favorable stat for them. Still have everything to play for though as the AQ leaves all of these discussions in the dust if they win that.

[Mr.Right]

There is no way Messiah is getting a Pool C. They must get the AQ as that league is most certainly a one-bid league unless Lycoming losses in Final.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

There is no way Messiah is getting a Pool C. They must get the AQ as that league is most certainly a one-bid league unless Lycoming losses in Final.

Dominican: 14-5-2 / .545 SOS / 1-3-0 vs. Ranked (Last Year)

Messiah: 14-5-1/ ? / 0-4-0 vs Ranked

Dominican got in with this resume last year...wouldn't count Messiah out if this is how they end up.

1-4 if Wash. Lee gets ranked which they probably will. 1-4-1 if Gettysburg sneaks in. If Randolph gets in it would be 2-4-1. I don't think Gettysburg will get in so they would have a best shot of 2-4 most likely scenario 1-4 because I don't think Randolph will get in either. Wash. Lee has the best chance. Then losses to CMU, Etown, Rowan, and Lyco. And if they lose to Lyco again then that would be a 5th loss but we don't see that poll.

Keep in mind that CMU is sitting at #9 right now in the region so if they somehow drop out that takes away a loss for Messiah and they would be 0-3-0 and if Wash. Lee gets in then they would be the exact same 1-3-0 like Dominican with a bigger name. Just saying it could happen. Will it? I don't know. But it definitely could so to say there is 0% chance is asinine.

[Mr.Right]

Well done Ryan on the column.

[PaulNewman]

Interesting new poll, although I can't imagine how anyone could really figure out who to vote for.