2015 D3 Season: NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Which men's head coach do you think has done the best job so far in 2015, taking into account expectations, program history, improvement, challenges, etc.

Justin Serpone, Amherst (60) - 12%     

Justin Serpone's Career Coaching Record
Amherst College (9th season, 120-16-22 Overall)
2007: 15-2-1
2008: 15-4-3
2009: 12-4-1
2010: 13-2-4
2011: 16-2-2
2012: 17-0-3
2013: 18-1-2
2014: 14-1-6
2015: 13-0-0 and counting
Records and NCAA performances speak for them-self.

Mike Coven, Brandeis (38) - 8%

Ryan Sounders, Calvin (14) - 2%

Brandon Bianco, Case Western (18) - 3%

Mark Wagner, Eastern (19) - 4%
Undefeated with a 12-0-2 record and counting.
17 Seasons at Eastern (205 W - 95 L - 13 T)
Looking for 3rd straight season w/14+ wins.

Skip Roderick, Elizabethtown (27) - 5%
Currently 13-1-1 and counting.
Career record of 498-139-58
Running away w/Landmark Conf.

Dan Wagner, F&M (43) - 9%

Rob Irvine, Kean (15) - 3%

Nate Gibboney, Lycoming (81) - 17%
Gibboney Year-By-Year
Year   W   L   T   Pct.   Note
2013   11   8   4   .565   Won first conference title and NCAA Tournament games in school history
2014   15   3   3   .786   Highest winning percentage in program history
Total   26   11   7   .670   
Currently 11-1-2 and counting.
Took a 4-10-2 program and won MAC in first year w/wins over Messiah and Etown.

Jake Beverlin, Mass-Boston (8) - 1%

Todd Tumelty, Montclair St. (12) - 2%

Jeremiah Kneeland, Skidmore (15) - 3%

Eric Busener, Thomas More (10) - 2%

Wytse Molenaar, UW-Oshkosh (27) - 5%

Tony Guinn, UW-Whitewater (12) - 2%

other (72) - 15%

In bold are my picks for finalists. Obviously being a Mid-Atlantic fan I might be bias in my selections   

[PaulNewman]

Good call on Montclair, TJ.  The 3-0 Kean game completely slipped my mind.  I think I was thinking that was Rut-Camden.  I'm comfortable with MSU at #4, based on entire body of work and Kean game sandwiched between wins over Rowan and Rut-Camden, and considering that some of those NJAC schools (see Rut-Camden) play brutal schedules and have LOTS of opportunities for slip-ups.  That said, if I had accounted for the Kean game I think I would move them to #7 and move Calvin, TMC and Kenyon up a spot.  Montclair and Brandeis could flip-flop at that point.  As for UR, they are definitely good enough to be in RV or watch list, but I consciously left them out because I don't see a way through for them.  The loss to Case for me was the final straw.  They lived on the edge last year and even if they win out I can't see them getting the benefit of the doubt this time, especially with so many UAA teams with overall better records.  We'll see.

As for a couple of others, I don't expect this to show in the real polls necessarily but I think Amherst is the overwhelming #1 at the moment.  F&M can't be lower than #2 based on merit, but there are a handful of teams I likely would pick in a head-to-head with F&M.  I pushed Whitworth to #3 (over Montclair ironically) to account for built-in systemic/regional bias that always seems to have Whitworth at least a couple of spots lower than they might be.  Calvin is a real challenge, as sometimes the Knights get the benefit of the doubt but as the season progresses perhaps they've been even underrated.  They move up now that you've clued me in on MSU.  I really don't know how anyone could argue with Haverford, at least until they lose again.  I was thinking of OWU even higher, but I couldn't justify getting them ahead of the others today.  Part of having OWU as high as I do is trying to stay ahead of the curve.  They are hot and are going to be a handful.  Having them at #14 today will look really smart if they win the next 3, and then they would be even higher.  Similar thinking for Loras and Oneonta.  Loras has more blemishes than I would like but they are on track now and just crushed Luther.  The SUNYAC is really tough and Oneonta again has emerged as top dog.  The SUNYAC is again threatening to get 3 bids.  I had a hard time pushing Tufts out of the top 25, as I think they still are a contender, but results dictated that they had to go at least for this week.  The Jumbos were #1 just a few weeks ago!  How can you keep Macalester out, even though I'm not totally sold, which is sort of how I feel about E'town and maybe (maybe) Lycoming.  Case deserves their spot IMO on balance, and Ohio Northern was a surprise even for me.  I sort of remember them at something like 5-3, and now all of the sudden they are 13-3.  There are teams in the RV category that are scary -- Tufts, Wheaton (Ill), Messiah, SLU.  Wheaton has demolished last 3 opponents.  And seems like Dickinson and never-mentioned Springfield have come out of nowhere as well.  BTW, my odds of Messiah winning their AQ stand at 70/30 with an expectation that the line moves to 80/20 by gametime.

Related to the Rochester question, I have Denison/Oberlin as a pair because I see them fighting for that last NCAC playoff spot.  And the more I think about Oberlin, despite their record, I think they may be the 3rd best team in the NCAC after Kenyon/OWU.  Fortune went their way 2 years ago, but not so far in this campaign.  BTW, if it still matters at the time, Oberlin and Denison play on the final day of the season.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

70/30 and 80/20 by game time that Messiah wins the AQ? Just clarifying that's all. And I like your logic for the poll. Makes a lot of sense. I personally think Loras is too high in yours but deserving none the less which is why I like your poll overall. As I mentioned earlier well done. 

[PaulNewman]

70/30 and 80/20 by game time that Messiah wins the AQ? Just clarifying that's all. And I like your logic for the poll. Makes a lot of sense. I personally think Loras is too high in yours but deserving none the less which is why I like your poll overall. As I mentioned earlier well done.

Presuming a Lycoming vs Messiah MACC tourney final.

[PaulNewman]

70/30 and 80/20 by game time that Messiah wins the AQ? Just clarifying that's all. And I like your logic for the poll. Makes a lot of sense. I personally think Loras is too high in yours but deserving none the less which is why I like your poll overall. As I mentioned earlier well done.

Yeah, you can definitely question Loras, but they have played 9 quality opponents where most would say they had some chance to lose.  If CMU could be at #12 with a few blemishes then Loras can be there.  How many teams in the country would feel super-confident playing Loras 2-3 weeks from now?  The answer may be ZERO.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Got ya and I agree. I would not want to play a team like Loras or Haverford in the NCAA tournament. As I said deserving. Too high for me by like 3 or 4 spots so nothing drastic by any means. I tend to agree with your polls more than the other national polls! Wanna start your own D3 poll? I'll take a spot on the ranking committee if you do! 

And on your watch list I would keep an eye on Lynchburg. 7-1-4...decent results against good teams. Problem is that there SOS isn't the greatest (176 on Massey). Loss to Randolph Macon and ties against VA Wesleyan, Randolph, Wash. Lee, and CNU. No signature wins and no chances remaining for one either. 

[lastguyoffthebench]

How does RvR come into play if a team is on the first poll, but then drop in the 2nd or 3rd?  I forgot how the fluctuation factors in to the rankings.   How does this impact teams that have played them, do they get credit for the RvR or does it fall off?

[Mr.Right]

Remember Luther in 2014....Their RvR dropped them off the rankings completely.

[lastguyoffthebench]

Mr.Right, once dropped did that impact Loras RvR or did it still count as a result vs a ranked opponent because at one point Luther was ranked.

[Mr.Right]

It did not count..

[Flying Weasel]

from http://www.d3soccer.com/columns/christan-shirk/2015/ncaa-regional-rankings-coming-next-week

Results versus Ranked Teams

Prior to 2013, a team's results versus ranked teams (one of the primary criteria) was based upon the official clarification in the Manual that "once a team is ranked  . . ., it is always considered ranked."  That was changed starting in 2013 with ranked teams being defined as those teams ranked "at the time of selection" (Pre-Championship Manual, pg. 21), in other words, only the teams ranked the previous week.

Obviously, for the first weekly regional rankings of the season, there is no previous ranking and thus there are no results versus ranked teams.  Consequently, the regional data sheets (see section further down) for the first weekly rankings do not include teams' records verus ranked opponents, but starting with the second weekly rankings this criteria is in play and is among the criteria listed in the regional data sheets.

For the . . . first weekly rankings:	N/A (no previous rankings)
second weekly rankings:	results versus teams ranked in the first weekly rankings
third weekly rankings:	results versus teams ranked in the second weekly rankings
final unpublished rankings:	results versus teams ranked in the third weekly rankings

[Mr.Right]

I have said this numerous times that I liked it better when the system was once ranked, always ranked...There by affecting record v Ranked incredibly. The new system bothers me for a number of reasons.

[Flying Weasel]

Remember Luther in 2014....Their RvR dropped them off the rankings completely.

SOS was what did Luther in.  It dropped below .500 between the first and second regional rankings and they went from #2 to unranked with no other results suggesting so many teams would leap-frog them.  The NCAA said there was no .500 SOS threshhold.  Nevertheless . . .

John Carroll got hurt by the RvR issue in the final unpublished rankings last year (2014) and that might partially explain their not being selected for an at-large berth (that still doesn't make sense).

[Mr.Right]

This is correct but since the 1st poll does not include record v Ranked, I assumed that this would play a major factor in why teams move up and down frequently in the 2nd poll...It was just a hunch so I respect that FW knows more about these things than I do.

[Flying Weasel]

NCAA Great Lakes Regional Rankings - October 29, 2014 (Second Week)

Rank	Team	Record	SOS	RvR
1.	Loras	13-2-1	.593	5-0-1
2.	Wartburg	10-3-4	.548	3-1-0
3.	UW-Whitewater	10-3-3	.568	3-1-0
4.	St. Olaf	11-3-2	.561	0-3-1
5.	Gustavus Adolphus	11-4-1	.536	1-1-1
6.	UW-Oshkosh	12-5-1	.558	0-2-1
7.	St. John's	9-6-0	.564	1-4-0
	Luther	13-2-0	.493	1-2-0

Compare Luther to teams 4 thru 7.  St. Olaf and UW-Oshkosh who have no wins vs. ranked teams.  GAC and St. John's only have 1 win vs. ranked.  SOS is where Luther fell glaringly short, not so much RvR.  But what still doesn't make sense is that their SOS was .519 the week prior, still very low and much lower than everyone else in the rankings and yet they were ranked #2.  If SOS was so important to the commitee, why #2 the first week?