2015 D3 Season: NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

[lastguyoffthebench]

No, it does not count.

[jknezek]

All that matters now are the super secret rankings that we don't get to see.

[lastguyoffthebench]

Which doesn't really change.  Rarely have we seen the super secret rankings benefit a team on the outside looking in...

[jknezek]

Which doesn't really change.  Rarely have we seen the super secret rankings benefit a team on the outside looking in...

No. But in an age of increasing transparency pretty much everywhere from board rooms to the BCS playoff committee to PTO organizations, the NCAA continues to proudly buck the trend and irritate its fan base. Luckily for them knowledgeable DIII fans are pretty sparse, so it doesn't irritate people the way their plethora of other decisions do...

[PaulNewman]

Can anybody provide some more color on the SAA and ODAC conferences?  Centre is the only SAA team I have much familiarity with, and given how competitive the Colonels generally are with the better NCAC teams who they play often I am always surprised to see them struggle so much in the SAA.  I know that conference just within the past year or two was awarded an AQ (I guess as a new conference), but how should we evaluate Oglethorpe at something like 6-0-1 and 10-2-2?  And for the ODAC, I've watched a few games online and it seems like schools such as Roanoke and Lynchburg have nice stadiums and attract pretty big crowds.  Seems like their soccer games are kind of a big deal in those small Virginia cities.  If I knew nothing about the D3 scene from this site or followed the last few NCAA tourneys I would have assumed the ODAC would always get at least 2 and maybe 3 bids on a regular basis.

Well, apparently not, lol!

lastguy?  jknezek?

[TennesseeJed]

NSCAA NCAA Division III Men - National - Poll 6 - October 20, 2015
Rank    School    Prev.    W-L-T
1    Franklin & Marshall College    1    0-0-0
2    Amherst College    2    0-0-0
3    Calvin College    3    0-0-0
4    Whitworth University    4    0-0-0
5    University of Wisconsin-Whitewater    11    0-0-0
6    Thomas More College    6    0-0-0
7    Kenyon College    9    0-0-0
8    Eastern University    8    0-0-0
9    Montclair State University    5    0-0-0
10    Brandeis University    7    0-0-0
11    Plattsburgh State University    12    0-0-0
12    Kean University    NR    0-0-0
13    Washington University (Mo.)    NR    0-0-0
14    Colorado College    NR    0-0-0
15    Trinity University (Texas)    15    0-0-0
16    Stevens Institute Of Technology    20    0-0-0
17    Loras College    14    0-0-0
18    Elizabethtown College    16    0-0-0
19    North Park University    24    0-0-0
20    Christopher Newport University    13    0-0-0
21    Massachusetts Insititute Of Technology    21    0-0-0
22    University of Texas-Dallas    10    0-0-0
23    Skidmore College    22    0-0-0
24    Thomas College    NR    0-0-0
25    Ohio Northern University    NR    0-0-0

[Flying Weasel]

from http://www.d3soccer.com/columns/christan-shirk/2015/ncaa-regional-rankings-coming-next-week

Results versus Ranked Teams

Prior to 2013, a team's results versus ranked teams (one of the primary criteria) was based upon the official clarification in the Manual that "once a team is ranked  . . ., it is always considered ranked."  That was changed starting in 2013 with ranked teams being defined as those teams ranked "at the time of selection" (Pre-Championship Manual, pg. 21), in other words, only the teams ranked the previous week.

Obviously, for the first weekly regional rankings of the season, there is no previous ranking and thus there are no results versus ranked teams.  Consequently, the regional data sheets (see section further down) for the first weekly rankings do not include teams' records verus ranked opponents, but starting with the second weekly rankings this criteria is in play and is among the criteria listed in the regional data sheets.

For the . . . first weekly rankings:	N/A (no previous rankings)
second weekly rankings:	results versus teams ranked in the first weekly rankings
third weekly rankings:	results versus teams ranked in the second weekly rankings
final unpublished rankings:	results versus teams ranked in the third weekly rankings

FW,

Just want to clarify and sorry for beating a dead horse...so say Team A beats first week and second week regionally ranked Team B, but then third week Team B is not regionally ranked. Does this stil count as a win vs Ranked opponents for Team A? I am just confused on that process. Thanks in advance for any clarification! 

LGOTB is correct that that win will not be included in Team A's record versus ranked opponents in the data sheets produced for the committee to do its final unpublished rankings that form the basis for their at-large berth selections.

So, once the third regional rankings come out, we can figure out what the new record versus ranked teams is for everyone in an attempt to have a feel for how the final unpublished rankings may differ from the third published rankings.

[lastguyoffthebench]

When Haverford beats F&M and Wesleyan beats Amherst on Saturday, would they be the first 3 loss team to be ranked #1? haha

Would it be far-fetched to slot Haverford in at #2?  What's the value of the rankings then, if Haverford, beats the #1 team in both polls?

[lastguyoffthebench]

Surprised to see MSU over Kean in terms of rankings.  Granted MSU has had stronger wins, but Kean beat MSU on the ROAD!

[PaulNewman]

Some bizarre results in the NSCAA poll.  UW-W at 5?  Eastern at 8?  Wash U at 13?  North Park?  Thomas???

[blooter442]

Despite my glowing praise for them last week, a little surprised to see Thomas in there, especially considering they're 10-4. However, two of their losses were in the first two games of the season, and I'll say again that I think LaBrie and Nicholas are good enough to play - and start - for a mid-level NESCAC team, perhaps a Bates, and could really surprise some people if they get to NCAAs this year. That said, must be the first time that they've been nationally-ranked, and a little questionable in my book.

[TennesseeJed]

Some bizarre results in the NSCAA poll.  UW-W at 5?  Eastern at 8?  Wash U at 13?  North Park?  Thomas???

Agreed!  Rankings, like superstitions, only have validity if you believe them to be true.     Having said that, the NCAA regional rankings actually matter for something, so I guess they are "true" as far as Pool C bids are concerned.  All others are just for "sport."

[jknezek]

Can anybody provide some more color on the SAA and ODAC conferences?  Centre is the only SAA team I have much familiarity with, and given how competitive the Colonels generally are with the better NCAC teams who they play often I am always surprised to see them struggle so much in the SAA.  I know that conference just within the past year or two was awarded an AQ (I guess as a new conference), but how should we evaluate Oglethorpe at something like 6-0-1 and 10-2-2?  And for the ODAC, I've watched a few games online and it seems like schools such as Roanoke and Lynchburg have nice stadiums and attract pretty big crowds.  Seems like their soccer games are kind of a big deal in those small Virginia cities.  If I knew nothing about the D3 scene from this site or followed the last few NCAA tourneys I would have assumed the ODAC would always get at least 2 and maybe 3 bids on a regular basis.

Well, apparently not, lol!

lastguy?  jknezek?

Sorry. I missed this completely. My knowledge of ODAC soccer, despite soccer being the game I played growing up and even, briefly, tried for in college, is much more limited than my knowledge of football and lacrosse. You are correct about Roanoke, Lynchburg, Va. Wes, EMU, and even Randolph. Those schools do not play football and soccer is the big sport in the fall on some of these campuses, although big sport is somewhat relative. Large followings at 'Noke and 'Burg, smaller at the rest.

Lynchburg has a multipurpose field turf field, which is nice but it's still turf. Kerr Stadium at Roanoke is even nicer. No track and very much a stadium feel, sadly it is also multi-purpose and turf. Randolph's Wildcat stadium is also not bad. Multi-purpose, has a track, odd seating arrangement you need to see to believe.

http://randolphwildcats.com/information/wildcatstadium

The thing about these schools is there isn't really anything that differentiates them from dozens of other liberal arts schools. There is no hook, they are primarily local, the endowments aren't great, the admission rate isn't great (66-80%), the athletic history is OK. So what is the big draw? You need a transcendent coach to push them forward, and while the programs are good, nobody has come in and really made that happen. Yeah I know, Lynchburg had their run, but it was a couple year flash, not sustained greatness.

So that brings up the "good but not great" issue. The ODAC has a lot of parity. There are a bunch of good teams, but no one really gets the long standing leg up on another to build that self-perpetuating greatness. Going backward from last year here are the tournament finals:

Lynchburg beats Roanoke
Va Wes beats Randolph
Roanoke beats Va Wes
Randolph beats Lynchburg
Lynchburg beats H-SC
Lyncburg beats Noke
Va Wes beats Noke
Noke beats W&L
Lynchburg beats Va Wes
Va Wes beats EMU
Noke beats Lynchburg
Va Wes beats W&L
Noke beats R-MC
Noke beats W&L
W&L beats Va Wes

On and on it goes. They just clobber each other in season and in tournament. So no one gets a reputation and therefore no one gets credit for beating anyone else. Lots of good, no great, is no way to make a splash. Then you get middling tourney seeds and you don't make a splash again. Then again, given the OOC outcomes against the best teams, the ODAC doesn't always help themselves either. So good but not great is really what you have, and you have a lot of it.

That being said, I think it's about to change. W&L is the team to watch for a bunch of reasons, but the biggest is the coaching change. I loved Coach Piranhian, even though he was there when I discovered I wasn't going to make it, he was great. But he was there a long, long, long time. And I think he had settled after that long time. If he ended up with a great player, he could build a good team. But if he didn't, well, sometimes it seems like the program just coasted. Now W&L has the hook (academics and reputation), the facilities, a somewhat national scope, and a coach with the energy and desire to build a better program. Scheduling Messiah is a good indication of intention. If W&L improves, I expect they can drag some of the others along with them and sooner or later you will see a break through for the conference. Not this year, but I'm thinking if it happens it will in the next 2 or 3.

[Mr.Right]

Let's all just calm down and wait until the real Regional rankings come out tomorrow and then discuss....Also, even then there will be some discrepancies until the 2nd regional rankings the following Wednesday. Haverford will show up on both and near the top.

[PaulNewman]

Can anybody provide some more color on the SAA and ODAC conferences?  Centre is the only SAA team I have much familiarity with, and given how competitive the Colonels generally are with the better NCAC teams who they play often I am always surprised to see them struggle so much in the SAA.  I know that conference just within the past year or two was awarded an AQ (I guess as a new conference), but how should we evaluate Oglethorpe at something like 6-0-1 and 10-2-2?  And for the ODAC, I've watched a few games online and it seems like schools such as Roanoke and Lynchburg have nice stadiums and attract pretty big crowds.  Seems like their soccer games are kind of a big deal in those small Virginia cities.  If I knew nothing about the D3 scene from this site or followed the last few NCAA tourneys I would have assumed the ODAC would always get at least 2 and maybe 3 bids on a regular basis.

Well, apparently not, lol!

lastguy?  jknezek?

Sorry. I missed this completely. My knowledge of ODAC soccer, despite soccer being the game I played growing up and even, briefly, tried for in college, is much more limited than my knowledge of football and lacrosse. You are correct about Roanoke, Lynchburg, Va. Wes, EMU, and even Randolph. Those schools do not play football and soccer is the big sport in the fall on some of these campuses, although big sport is somewhat relative. Large followings at 'Noke and 'Burg, smaller at the rest.

Lynchburg has a multipurpose field turf field, which is nice but it's still turf. Kerr Stadium at Roanoke is even nicer. No track and very much a stadium feel, sadly it is also multi-purpose and turf. Randolph's Wildcat stadium is also not bad. Multi-purpose, has a track, odd seating arrangement you need to see to believe.

http://randolphwildcats.com/information/wildcatstadium

The thing about these schools is there isn't really anything that differentiates them from dozens of other liberal arts schools. There is no hook, they are primarily local, the endowments aren't great, the admission rate isn't great (66-80%), the athletic history is OK. So what is the big draw? You need a transcendent coach to push them forward, and while the programs are good, nobody has come in and really made that happen. Yeah I know, Lynchburg had their run, but it was a couple year flash, not sustained greatness.

So that brings up the "good but not great" issue. The ODAC has a lot of parity. There are a bunch of good teams, but no one really gets the long standing leg up on another to build that self-perpetuating greatness. Going backward from last year here are the tournament finals:

Lynchburg beats Roanoke
Va Wes beats Randolph
Roanoke beats Va Wes
Randolph beats Lynchburg
Lynchburg beats H-SC
Lyncburg beats Noke
Va Wes beats Noke
Noke beats W&L
Lynchburg beats Va Wes
Va Wes beats EMU
Noke beats Lynchburg
Va Wes beats W&L
Noke beats R-MC
Noke beats W&L
W&L beats Va Wes

On and on it goes. They just clobber each other in season and in tournament. So no one gets a reputation and therefore no one gets credit for beating anyone else. Lots of good, no great, is no way to make a splash. Then you get middling tourney seeds and you don't make a splash again. Then again, given the OOC outcomes against the best teams, the ODAC doesn't always help themselves either. So good but not great is really what you have, and you have a lot of it.

That being said, I think it's about to change. W&L is the team to watch for a bunch of reasons, but the biggest is the coaching change. I loved Coach Piranhian, even though he was there when I discovered I wasn't going to make it, he was great. But he was there a long, long, long time. And I think he had settled after that long time. If he ended up with a great player, he could build a good team. But if he didn't, well, sometimes it seems like the program just coasted. Now W&L has the hook (academics and reputation), the facilities, a somewhat national scope, and a coach with the energy and desire to build a better program. Scheduling Messiah is a good indication of intention. If W&L improves, I expect they can drag some of the others along with them and sooner or later you will see a break through for the conference. Not this year, but I'm thinking if it happens it will in the next 2 or 3.

Thank you!!!  Much appreciated.  So similar to the NESCAC in terms of parity top to bottom and the "beating each other up thing" but without prestige except for W&L.  Am I correct that Roanoke and Lynchburg draw from beyond their campuses into the community?  I recall them having pretty sophisticated broadcast teams and a really good atmosphere compared to most D3s.

Now maybe one of these days someone will chime in on the SAA.

SAA seems similar in terms of parity and has a handful of the Colleges That Change Lives colleges.  As I noted before, I am familiar with Centre, who are always pretty competitive and yet seem to end up with a very mediocre SAA record.