2015 D3 Season: NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

[Golden_Fan]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hQHM8wfzWBg

Swat goal vs Camden... 25 yd upper 90

Nice shot!!!

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

I am still baffled with Messiah's SOS.  Considerably weak, but playing E-town and Lycoming on the road with the 1.25 factor bolsters their numbers.   They are the benefactors, much like Calvin and Kean for playing so many road games.

I still believe that Messiah wins the AQ and Lyco will get an at-large bid.

Yes the Messiah SOS is completely baffling, especially when the past few years they have had a much stronger schedule and had much lower SOS...I will say this gain but Lycoming IMO is a bubble team but on the right side of the bubble..

I guess no one enjoyed my Mid-Atlantic regional break down in that forum that I posted earlier....       

[Mr.Right]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hQHM8wfzWBg

Swat goal vs Camden... 25 yd upper 90

Great strike but I m ust say the defender should have been in his mug so a shot could not get off....Lazy defending but a Great shot

[blooter442]

Did anyone think that possibly the reason Thomas (ME) made it into the NSCAA Top 25 at 10-4 was because someone - maybe multiple people - meant to vote for Thomas More but instead just wrote "Thomas"? Would be pretty funny if true.

[Mr.Right]

Off topic but the coach up at Thomas(ME) Chris Parsons is one of the least trusted coaches in the business...He is shady to say the least..

One example was he got red carded in a conference game on a Saturday a few years back and then proceeded to coach the next day against a non-conference team on Sunday. He got caught because the opposing coaches had spoken...He claimed he did not know that was the rule....Very Shady

[1970s NESCAC Player]

Did anyone think that possibly the reason Thomas (ME) made it into the NSCAA Top 25 at 10-4 was because someone - maybe multiple people - meant to vote for Thomas More but instead just wrote "Thomas"? Would be pretty funny if true.

Blooter, I had the identical question . . .

[Flying Weasel]

I am still baffled with Messiah's SOS.  Considerably weak, but playing E-town and Lycoming on the road with the 1.25 factor bolsters their numbers.   They are the benefactors, much like Calvin and Kean for playing so many road games.

I still believe that Messiah wins the AQ and Lyco will get an at-large bid.

Yes the Messiah SOS is completely baffling, especially when the past few years they have had a much stronger schedule and had much lower SOS...I will say this gain but Lycoming IMO is a bubble team but on the right side of the bubble..

Interesting that Messiah's SOS has come up.  It's been bothering me since the data sheets came out, because like many I had the perceived their schedule to be weaker than usual this year.  So a SOS as high as I could ever remember was very surprising.   But I ran the numbers this morning to just come up with the OWP, removing the head to head results and applying the home/away multipliers and I came up with an OWP of .652.  Now that can be expected to drop to around .590 by the end of their regular season schedule and then bounce back some probably (up to as high as +/- .610) if they reach the conference final and depending who their two opponents are.  Hood in the semis and Lyco in the final would be the best-case scenario for boosting their OWP and SOS.

Anyway, looking over their schedule here's some observations and explanations for such a high SOS.

Well, first, let's review who they dropped and added to their schedule, and who remained.

DROPPED (6) : Montclair St., Dickinson, Catholic, Redlands, TCNJ, Neumann
ADDED (5): Carnegie Mellon, Washington & Lee, Randolph, Houghton, Allegheny
NON-CONF. CARRY-OVERS (5): Elizabethtown, Rowan, Gettysburg, York (Pa.), Misericordia

Subjectively, before the season, the teams dropped seemed better on the whole than the new additions, but there have been some surprises.

● Of the non-conference hold-overs Rowan and especially Elizabethtown have been surprisingly good
● The two winningest teams on their schedule, Elizabethtown and Lycoming, were played on the road which was a huge boost to their SOS with the away multiplier.
● New addition Washington & Lee has been surprisingly good
● New addition Randolph had been better than last year
● Dropped Catholic is having a poor season, their worst by far since 2007, so losing them actually helped
● Carnegie Mellon is having a better season than last year and were played on the road, so a helpful addition.
● They have played the top half of the Commonwealth Conf. (that won't hurt their SOS) already with the bottom half (that will pull down their SOS) yet to come.
● Conference foe Hood is having their best ever season and were played on the road.

Put that all together (W&L, Rowan, and E-town having unexpectently good to great seasons; two winningest opponents played away, playing best conf. foes first), and you have a surprisingly high SOS at this point of the season.  The fact that the overall non-conference schedule isn't as strong was more than offset by a bunch of unexpected or fortunate things.

[D3soccerwatcher]

I am still baffled with Messiah's SOS.  Considerably weak, but playing E-town and Lycoming on the road with the 1.25 factor bolsters their numbers.   They are the benefactors, much like Calvin and Kean for playing so many road games.

I still believe that Messiah wins the AQ and Lyco will get an at-large bid.

LastGuy,

I agree that Messiah wins the AQ. I don't think Lycoming has ever beaten Messiah twice in one season (FW would know for sure).  That being said, Messiah's SOS won't matter.  SOS only matters for those teams that don't get the AQ by winning their conference.  My guess is Messiah doesn't pay an inordinate amount of attention to SOS.  They have rarely had to worry about it for decades.  They just plan to win their conference and move on.  It's been two decades since Messiah missed the national tourney.  I don't think that will change this year.

[lastguyoffthebench]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hQHM8wfzWBg

Swat goal vs Camden... 25 yd upper 90

Great strike but I m ust say the defender should have been in his mug so a shot could not get off....Lazy defending but a Great shot

Tough call, the overlapping run is there so if he steps to win the ball it gets through for a 1v1 with the GK.

[ECSUalum]

Thought this might be fun to watch:
Zlatan Ibrahimovic ● Craziest Skills Ever ● Impossible Goals
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ln35qLphK4I

[Ryan Harmanis]

In a big, big NCAC game featuring No. 20 DePauw at No. 23 Denison - also #2 and #3 in the Great Lakes regional rankings - Denison takes an early 1-0 lead.  A Denison win would be big for their NCAC playoff hopes, but even bigger to cement their NCAA regional positioning.

1-1 now, spectacular side-volley, nearly a scissor kick (but not quite) by Gonzalez of DePauw to draw even.  That kid can play.

[D3soccerwatcher]

F&M 1
Haverford 1
9 mins into the game

[D3soccerwatcher]

#1 F&M now down 2-1 to Haverford
18 to go in first half

[Mr.Right]

Goals galore all over the country today...Haverford I think is the better team, let's see if they can hold onto the victory.

[Ryan Harmanis]

3-1 Haverford, really nice goal.  Game is extremely open, I'm guessing it won't be the last goal.