2015 D3 Season: NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

[Part_Bart]

With conference playoffs and last regular season games approaching this weekend what are the key match-ups?

East-centric offerings:
The four teams in first round of SUNYAC (Buff St @Cortland and Potsdam @Plattsburgh) all have NCAA aspirations, but likely the only way the aspiration becomes real is to win this first round game, then a second round game (on 11/4)  v. either Brockport (ouch) or Oneonta.

Only three of these four teams in Liberty league (RIT@Hobart and Skidmore@Union) will be in the playoffs with St. Lawrence.  Order of seeding (and first round home field advantage) are at stake.

In Empire 8 the final weekend's league games settle first round playoff opponents, though the real fireworks will be the conference final next weekend.

[PaulNewman]

A few odds and ends....

Very nice touch by RH with the "Open Letter."  This is a special time of the year for those closing out their careers and especially the seniors will never get this time back.  You can't be promised how it's going to end, and only one team is going to experience ultimate glory and the perfect storybook ending, and no one can over-emphasize the importance of embracing the ride wherever it goes and however it ends with teammates, parents, coaches, etc.  I know first hand that the experience can be just as exhilarating for parents and even harder for some of us to deal with the end (because the end signals a real end for us as well).  I'd also throw out there for players and parents to embrace all of the moments each year that you can.  There is no way to know in advance if the best (and/or most emotional) experiences will happen freshman, soph, junior, or senior year, and maybe the best ride is actually as a sub as a frosh on a team that makes a deep run, or as a junior on a team that doesn't even make the tournament but had a collection of guys that truly clicked and loved another.  As a related point, make the most of your opportunities when you have them as the best opportunity isn't always the year most thought it might be.

As I think more about the SoS issue and look more closely at more teams, I'd suggest there are at least 4 categories -- the legit high SoS's, the fortunately high SoS's, the unfortunately low SoS's, and the legit low SoS's.  My semantics might be off a bit but you get the point, and I write this understanding that for the most part these are not the kind of distinctions the cmtes make.

Let's consider these teams and their out-of-conference schedules.......

Rochester -- .620 -- @Geneseo, Rutgers-Newark, Morrisville St, @Hobart, @Buffalo St, @RIT (really a neutral/home game), St John Fisher, Lycoming, Moravian

Middlebury -- .579 -- @Norwich, @Green Mtn, Colby-Sawyer, Castleton, Plymouth St

Case Western -- .503 -- @Mt Union, Pitt-Greensburg, Thomas More, @Baldwin-Wallace, @Capital, John Carroll, Ohio Northern, @Wooster, @Wilmington, @Kenyon, Oberlin, Waynesburg

Rochester's high SoS (like Brandeis) looks very well earned.  Not necessarily any teams that would be considered top 10 teams, but with the SUNYAC schools, Lycoming, Hobart, Rutgers-Newark, and frequent NCAA team Morrisville St,  I would consider this to be a very tough and credible schedule, while keeping in mind that UAA schools have more out-of-conference games since there are only 7 conference tilts

Midd is one that I think surprised many of us (and we actually thought they might pay for a weak schedule) and for me is an example of an inflated SoS that is deceiving.  And imagine how high their SoS might be if you take out 1-16 Green Mountain.  There's not one team on their entire out-of-conference schedule that I would consider a high quality opponent, BUT, they did turn out to be teams with very decent to good records in very weak conferences.  Planning, gaming the system, or just some good luck?

Case has what I would term a schedule that was better than average (albeit not great) and which yielded an unfortunately low SoS.  We've noted elsewhere that they are going to get a bump from their last 3 UAA games, but I'm focusing here on just the out-of-conference schedules (and with the view that the UAA and NESCAC are similarly challenging with the difference being the number of teams).  They had really soft games like Pitt-Greensburg and Waynesburg, soft games with Baldwin-Wallace, Wooster and Wilmington, and then good to very good games with Capital, John Carroll, Ohio Northern, Thomas More and Kenyon.  For me, that's a slightly to moderately above average schedule and if they end up around .540 maybe that will be almost right, especially taking into account that they got ZERO from a scheduled away Kenyon game.

So what's the point?  I don't think Case has any argument on the single criterion of SoS with Rochester, but I would contend that the difference between Midd and Case is very artificial and on balance I think the Case schedule is better/tougher than Midd's.  I have no idea how they would do this, but I think the cmtes would be better armed if they had a method or calculation they could use in cases where differences, especially big differences, seem out of whack.

I'll offer some thoughts on this weekend's slate in a separate post.

[Shooter McGavin]

NCAC NE: Does the committee take into consideration games that have been cancelled? In Case and Kenyon's case that game would have elevated both teams SOS for the good...do they consider this when selecting teams with an SOS that might not be as high as it would have been had they played? I know in the Mid-Atlantic forum there has been dicussion about the Oneonta vs Lycoming game being cancelled and how not playing the game might hurt Lycoming. Knowing this I am sure they wanted to play the game but with no time to make the game up there is no chance for a reschedule. So how does the committee view these circumstances when they come about?

[PaulNewman]

NCAC NE: Does the committee take into consideration games that have been cancelled? In Case and Kenyon's case that game would have elevated both teams SOS for the good...do they consider this when selecting teams with an SOS that might not be as high as it would have been had they played? I know in the Mid-Atlantic forum there has been dicussion about the Oneonta vs Lycoming game being cancelled and how not playing the game might hurt Lycoming. Knowing this I am sure they wanted to play the game but with no time to make the game up there is no chance for a reschedule. So how does the committee view these circumstances when they come about?

I think the short answer is NO, although I clearly am not an expert.  As some have noted (including myself) I think there also is a view that there was plenty of time to re-schedule with knowledge that they both could need the game.  Now, in a virtual tie would a cmte consider that game not being played as a mitigating factor?  I don't know.

[Shooter McGavin]

NCAC NE: Does the committee take into consideration games that have been cancelled? In Case and Kenyon's case that game would have elevated both teams SOS for the good...do they consider this when selecting teams with an SOS that might not be as high as it would have been had they played? I know in the Mid-Atlantic forum there has been dicussion about the Oneonta vs Lycoming game being cancelled and how not playing the game might hurt Lycoming. Knowing this I am sure they wanted to play the game but with no time to make the game up there is no chance for a reschedule. So how does the committee view these circumstances when they come about?

I think the short answer is NO, although I clearly am not an expert.  As some have noted (including myself) I think there also is a view that there was plenty of time to re-schedule with knowledge that they both could need the game.  Now, in a virtual tie would a cmte consider that game not being played as a mitigating factor?  I don't know.

Right Kenyon vs Case was early in the season but games from this past week there really is no time to reschedule so that's what I was curious about. Thanks for your thoughts.

[PaulNewman]

NCAC's Cloudy Crystal Ball

If you're pulling for your team to get a Pool C (if they don't or can't get an AQ), you want these teams to get their own AQs, and if too many of these teams do not get their AQs your team may fall to the wrong side of the bubble or fall off entirely.

Absolute locks even if don't win AQs

Amherst
F&M
Calvin
Trinity (TX)
Montclair St
Oneonta St
Thomas More
Brandeis (unless 0-3 for next 3)

Very likely to likely without AQ

Haverford
Wheaton (Ill) (loss to North Park and also conf semi might be a problem)
Wash U (unless go 0-3 or 0-2-1 last 3)
Loras (do Duhawks need 1 more game?)
Macalester
Lycoming
Elizabethtown
Stockton
MIT
ECSU
SLU (need beat Clarkson and conf semi?)
Redlands (need conf final?)
Colorado College (need to win tomorrow and conf semi?)
Kenyon/OWU (there are probably scenarios where one doesn't get in but unlikely)
Middlebury/Tufts (same as above)
UW-W (if not Pool B)

Probables to Bubbles to Wrong side of Bubble (could fluctuate significantly over next 2 weekends)

Kenyon/OWU
Midd/Tufts
Brockport St
Dickinson (need 1 more game? or 2?)
Rowan
UMass-Boston
Endicott
UW-O???
St Johns???
DePauw (probable but probably scenarios where gets squeezed out)
CMU or Case (but probably not both)
Denison (need couple of wins IMO but could be wrong given regional rank)
Rose-Hulman (you definitely want them to win AQ)
Texas-Dallas (definitely want them to win AQ to ensure another bid not taken)
Hobart
Stevens
Plattsburgh
Chicago
Gordon
W&L
Messiah
North Park (I always almost forget North Park)
Pac Lutheran
Ohio Northern

Any glaring errors or omissions?  I realize the above is way too many teams, but one has to assume if favorites don't get the AQ that one of the other listed teams does get it.  Hopefuls definitely should pull for ECSU, Rose-Hulman, Thomas More, Wheaton (Ill), Calvin, Oneonta, etc winning AQs.

[PaulNewman]

Re-post from UAA thread...

Case loses to Chicago on PK in 1st OT.  Ref initially waved off the play and then changed his mind and awarded PK.  Case furious but looked like a legit PK foul and foul occurred on exact same kind of play in same spot as PK given up in OT last year to Brandeis.  Now Case really is in deep, deep trouble.

[PaulNewman]

Brandeis with yet another 1-0 win over Emory.  Wash U up 1-0 on CMU early in 2nd.  Trinity was up 2-0 on Santa Cruz but tied 2-2 at half.

[lastguyoffthebench]

When will Frostburg St be eligible for CAC Postseason?

[Flying Weasel]

When will Frostburg St be eligible for CAC Postseason?

They remained eligible for the playoffs this year, but the vacated games dropped them out of the playoff spots.

[Midwest Soccer]

NCACNE,

Think you left DePauw out...10-2-4 with a 2-2-3 record vs Regionally Ranked. I'd put them in same category as Kenyon/OWU. Thoughts?

Soccer is definitely 1 sport you can't do transitive property in....DePauw beats Kenyon who beats OWU who beats DePauw....ALL away from home.

[PaulNewman]

NCACNE,

Think you left DePauw out...10-2-4 with a 2-2-3 record vs Regionally Ranked. I'd put them in same category as Kenyon/OWU. Thoughts?

Soccer is definitely 1 sport you can't do transitive property in....DePauw beats Kenyon who beats OWU who beats DePauw....ALL away from home.

No, I had them in my "probable" category.  DePauw I think is very likely to get a bid unless things get wacky with TMC losing an AQ or something, and now CMU is very much back in the mix.  Assuming NCAC games today hold form, it's possible DePauw @ OWU for a NCAC semi could have a bid on the line.

[PaulNewman]

Much of the attention today will be on the high-stakes NESCAC quarters, the NJAC and SUNYAC tournament games, and maybe the CAC opening round slate with Christopher Newport at risk with a road game straight away, but here are some other games and under-the-radar conference races to keep an eye on.

Oberlin plays at Denison at 1:00 to decide the 4th NCAC playoff spot.  Two pretty even teams who probably don't like each other much with potential for a lot of chippiness.  Oberlin has been in good form while Denison has struggled of late, but Denison has home field and still is very much alive for a Pool C with a solid regional ranking. 

Much later tonight Wheaton (Ill) travels to North Park in a game that doesn't mean as much as we might have projected.  Wheaton (I think) has home field sewn up, but a North Park win and a Carthage win could give Carthage a share of 1st place in the CCIW. 

Morrisville travels to Keuka to decide first place who will have home field advantage for the NEAC tourney.

Dickinson @ F&M should be a good one at 6:00 pm.

RIT @ Hobart and Skidmore @ Union should be good ones in the Liberty.

St. Olaf @ St Johns is key for MIAC tourney positioning.

Elizabethtown looks to stay perfect against visiting and second place Scranton in the Landmark.

Roanoke @ W&L should be a good one, with little at stake for the ODAC playoffs but W&L perhaps trying to bolster a case for a regional ranking as winning the AQ will require running a real gauntlet.

WPI @ MIT is a good one, and we'll see if MIT can go unblemished in the NEWMAC.  Springfield, Babson, and WPI all appear to be jockeying for the final 3 playoff spots as Wheaton (MA) has the inside track for the #2 seed.

Texas-Tyler and Concordia (TX) have a big game as they look to challenge Texas-Dallas in the ASC.  Concordia's game with Univ of the Ozarks (sitting in 4th in the ASC) was cancelled last night due to weather so will be interesting to see what happens with that game.

In tournament action today, the SAA has all teams in action with Oglethorpe as the #1 seed and Millsaps at #2.  #6 Centre @ #3 Berry (a re-match from last weekend) should be a good one.

The CCC playoffs are setting up to be very competitive, with their quarters beginning today and Endicott, Gordon, WNEC and Wentworth all very closely matched teams hoping to advance.

The USAC is frequently overlooked and their quarters begin today with top seeds Greensboro, Methodist, Maryville (TN), and NC Wesleyan looking to win at home and advance to attractive semifinal battles.

Staten Island and Brooklyn, top teams in the CUNYAC look to advance in their tourney today.

[Dark Knight]

As I think more about the SoS issue and look more closely at more teams, I'd suggest there are at least 4 categories -- the legit high SoS's, the fortunately high SoS's, the unfortunately low SoS's, and the legit low SoS's.  My semantics might be off a bit but you get the point, and I write this understanding that for the most part these are not the kind of distinctions the cmtes make.

I agree that strength of schedule can be deceptive. A team might play a couple of good teams, many bad teams, and have a poor strength of schedule, or many above-average teams (but no top teams) and have an excellent strength of schedule.

It's still a necessary part of the kind of ranking the NCAA does, but for my money, it's also important to look at how a team does against other top competition. (The NCAA actually does a decent job with this by comparing records against regionally-ranked teams, though it's only a secondary criterion, if I understand correctly.)

But for my money, the biggest flaw in the regional ranking system is that it's based on won-lost record, not margin of victory. A 5-0 victory is different from a 1-0 victory. They should be looking at goal differentials, not just won-lost records. I realize that there are problems with MoV, but the data shows that taking it into account gives better predictions of future games.

But then I'm never really sure whether the regional ranking system and other polls are supposed to compare how well teams have done so far or predict how they will do in the future. Different goals can lead to different results. (If a team's best player is injured, should they drop in the poll?)

If what you really want to do is predict outcome of future games, you'd want to use a system like Massey ratings that estimates the power of teams statistically based on game outcomes (including margin of victory).

In fact, if you really want to predict the outcome of future games as accurately as possible, you'd gather all the data you can (goals, shots, corner kicks, time of possession) and use statistical techniques to predict the outcome of future games.

[PaulNewman]

Dark Knight, I have to disagree on margin of victory.  How would it be fair to compare UAA teams with usual 0-0 and 1-0 games that are highly competitive with a Calvin who steamrolls far weaker competition 4-0 and 5-0?  And I think many of us agree that the RvR should be on a "once-ranked, always ranked" basis.