2015 D3 Season: NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

[SuperSub15]

In regards to Wheaton (IL), if North park beats Wheaton and Carthage beats Elmhurst. Carthage would win the title outright.

[PaulNewman]

In regards to Wheaton (IL), if North park beats Wheaton and Carthage beats Elmhurst. Carthage would win the title outright.

Good catch.  I thought they would have same record and that Wheaton won head-to-head.  So Carthage would win by a point.  Wheaton needs a draw at a minimum, right?

[lastguyoffthebench]

Calvin has has the easiest/quietest run for a 36 game unbeaten streak... Look at Amherst, Camden, Messiah from 2012-13.   Totally different level of competition, but you still have to appreciate just how hard it is to string that kind of impressive streak together.

Calvin will reach the sweet 16, but lose to Thomas More or an NCAC school.  I'm hoping they get some tough draws and prove their worth with quality results...

[SuperSub15]

Yes A Wheaton draw and Carthage Win would result in a share of the title. If North Park loses and Carthage loses North Park could be on the outside looking in depending on the North Central result.

[Dark Knight]

Dark Knight, I have to disagree on margin of victory.  How would it be fair to compare UAA teams with usual 0-0 and 1-0 games that are highly competitive with a Calvin who steamrolls far weaker competition 4-0 and 5-0?  And I think many of us agree that the RvR should be on a "once-ranked, always ranked" basis.

Calvin hasn't played a strong schedule this year. They have only 5 games outside of conference, and only two or three of them were scheduled against pretty good teams, only one regionally ranked. So it's pretty tough to compare them against teams that have beaten several strong opponents.

Still, if you have to make a comparison, you have more information if you know the margin of victory. For example,

Brandeis 1-0 vs Chicago -- a pretty strong result. Chicago has Massey power 1.77, for a game score of 2.77.
Brandeis 1-0 vs. Lasell -- weak result. Lasell has power -2.21, weaker than any team on Calvin's schedule.

Calvin 4-0 vs. Olivet -- strong result. Olivet has power -0.93. With a victory by 4, that's a total of 3.07
Calvin 5-0 vs. Adrian -- Adrian, the weakest team on Calvin's schedule, has power -1.75. With a +5 result, that's 3.25. Strong result.

Now these numbers are far from the best way to compare teams; it could be that when Calvin hits top defenses they'll have a hard time scoring. But those kinds of comparisons are much more informative than

Brandeis, 2-0 vs. Chicago and Lasell
Calvin, 2-0 vs. Adrian and Olivet

[Flying Weasel]

(The NCAA actually does a decent job with this by comparing records against regionally-ranked teams, though it's only a secondary criterion, if I understand correctly.)

No, results against ranked opponents is one of the primary criteria and always has been.  That's why it's mentioned and discussed so much on here. 

Every year the criteria is mentioned numerous times on D3soccer.com in articles and pages about the regional rankings, at-large selections, and NCAA tournament.

From page 21 of the 2015 Pre-Championships Manual:

Primary Criteria (not listed in priority order)
● Win-loss percentage against Division III opponents
● Division III head-to-head competition
● Results versus common Division III opponents
● Results versus ranked Division III teams at the time of selection
● Division III strength of schedule

Secondary Criteria (not listed in priority order)
● Non-Division III win-loss percentage
● Results versus common non-Division III opponents
● Non-Division III strength-of-schedule

[pad3fan]

The Wheaton/North Park match is at Wheaton tonight, not North Park as mentioned earlier. Additionally, on the chance that Wheaton and Carthage ended in a points tie, Wheaton is the #1 seed for the CCIW Tournament and would host. Finally, at this point, Wheaton is the only team that has qualified for the tournament.

[Dark Knight]

Calvin will reach the sweet 16, but lose to Thomas More or an NCAC school.  I'm hoping they get some tough draws and prove their worth with quality results...

Your NCAC prediction has history behind it and seems pretty likely. Calvin got knocked out of the tournament by OWU last year in a 1-1 draw, losing the shootout. In 2013 and 2011, Calvin lost to OWU. In 2012, Calvin lost to DePauw. You have to go back to 2005 for a Calvin victory over OWU in the tournament.

In fact, if you do the kind of comparison of result + opponent strength I suggested above for the last 8 games, OWU is averaging 4.2, which is extremely good. It's better than Amherst, averaging 3.9, and Calvin, averaging 3.6. I haven't checked, but I'm guessing those are near top results nationally.

[PaulNewman]

Just noticed Texas-Dallas got crushed by Belhaven 3-0.  I'm sure this was covered somewhere but I see Belhaven isn't credited with any wins in the ASC.  They have 13 or 14 wins on the season.  Are they ineligible for the post-season?  And if so, does the loss still count for Texas-Dallas in terms of bid deliberations?

[PaulNewman]

Looks like 8th seed Sewanee knocked off #1 SAA seed Oglethorpe in PKs.

Centre advanced over Berry on PKs.

[PaulNewman]

Pac Lutheran won today, and now 14-4 and 10-2.

[Flying Weasel]

Just noticed Texas-Dallas got crushed by Belhaven 3-0.  I'm sure this was covered somewhere but I see Belhaven isn't credited with any wins in the ASC.  They have 13 or 14 wins on the season.  Are they ineligible for the post-season?  And if so, does the loss still count for Texas-Dallas in terms of bid deliberations?

Belhaven, formerly NAIA (national champs in 2012) is a D-III provisional member (first year of four years) and not eligible for either the ASC tournament or the NCAA tournament.  However, they and McMurry (re-classifying back to D-III) are playing full ASC schedules, but their games do not count in the standings for them or the other teams. 

[Standfree]

From this point on the records up to this point aren't what matter. What really matters are what teams really want to win and bring it in the conference tournament up to the NCAA tournament. I believe there will be some upsets this year along with some of the expected teams to win. Even if the highest seeded team is better statistically and skillfully, there have been plenty of games both collegiate and professional where one goal can win a game. Even if the better team dominated their opponent, if the opponent scores it's a whole different game. There will be a few teams who haven't got much spotlight like the typical schools do and they will turn heads in the NCAA tournament.

[PaulNewman]

Wheaton looking impressive against North Park.  Now up 3-1.

4-1.

[PaulNewman]

Anybody know who would own the tiebreaker for Elmhurst or North Park for 4th CCIW spot?  Elmhurst and Carthage just went OT, and draw would leave them level with North Park.