2015 D3 Season: NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

[lastguyoffthebench]

Centennial gets two pool C, NESCAC could get three pool C with 2 definite.

[PaulNewman]

D3 family trivia...

Graham Koval (soph) scored with 2 seconds left to send Conn College into OT yesterday with Williams, and his brother Brice is a freshmen forward at Kenyon (who has been playing).

Zack Masciopinto (frosh) at CMU scored the winning goal for CMU today at Chicago.  His brother Alex (senior) is a defender for Case Western playing right now at Wash U.

[PaulNewman]

Apparently Pac Lutheran thinks Dark Knight's proposal has been implemented.  The Lutes are destroying George Fox 7-0 with time left.

[PaulNewman]

NCAC Top 25 (thru 11/1)


1) Calvin (probably not one of my final four picks but 18-0-1 with 70 GF and 4 GA can't be ignored, and this IS a national-level program that was in national title game as recently as 2011)
2) Haverford
3) Amherst
4) Montclair State
5) Brandeis
6) Kenyon
7) Thomas More
8) Oneonta State
9) Trinity (TX)
10) Franklin & Marshall
11) Elizabethtown
12) Middlebury
13) OWU
14) Macalester
15) Lycoming
16) Whitworth
17) Carnegie Mellon
18) Wheaton (Ill)
19) Redlands
20) MIT
21) Loras
22) Colorado College
23) SLU
24) UW-Whitewater
25) Messiah/Hobart/Stockton/Washington & Lee/Endicott/Pacific Lutheran (TIE)

Watch List (= key teams alive based on D3soccer.com forum interest and otherwise still alive and/or with potential to impact Pool Cs/B in conference tourney play, NOT exhaustive, and NO ORDER) -- Brockport St, Plattsburgh St, Cortland State, Rowan, Rutgers-Camden, Dickinson, Johns Hopkins, Skidmore, Tufts, Bowdoin, Conn Coll, Wesleyan, DePauw, Oberlin, Geneva, Grove City, Westminster (PA), Westminster (MO), Kalamazoo, Carthage, Elmhurst, Concordia (WI), Milw Engineering, Dominican, Randolph, Roanoke, Lynchburg, Gordon, WNEC, Wentworth, Stevens, Ohio Northern, Capital, John Carroll, Texas-Tyler, Texas-Dallas, Concordia (TX), King's, Eastern, Rose Hulman, Hanover, Transy, Salisbury, York (PA), Mary Washington, ECSU, UMass-Boston, Wheaton (MA), Babson, Springfield, WPI, St Scholastica, UW-Osh, Wash U, Chicago, Dubuque, Luther, St Johns, Centre, Millsaps, Scranton, Occidental, Chapman/La Verne, Greensboro, Methodist, Maryville (TN), Cabrini, Marywood

[lastguyoffthebench]

Appreciate your weekly top 25, but that will still not save you from losing to me in the bracket challenge...

Extreme sleepers not regionally ranked:  Cabrini, Susquehanna (if the beat E-town), W&L

[D3soccerwatcher]

D3 family trivia...

Graham Koval (soph) scored with 2 seconds left to send Conn College into OT yesterday with Williams, and his brother Brice is a freshmen forward at Kenyon (who has been playing).

Zack Masciopinto (frosh) at CMU scored the winning goal for CMU today at Chicago.  His brother Alex (senior) is a defender for Case Western playing right now at Wash U.

Staying with the D3 family theme...

Gordon soph Josh Cochran scored with :30 seconds left in regulation to tie their playoff game with Roger Williams 1-1 on Saturday.  Gordon went on to win the game in double OT.  Josh is brother to Will Cochran starting forward at Messiah.

[backyarddawg]

Hero's Ranking

http://herosports.com/college-rankings/d3-mens-soccer-rankings/

[Mr.Right]

D3 family trivia...

Graham Koval (soph) scored with 2 seconds left to send Conn College into OT yesterday with Williams, and his brother Brice is a freshmen forward at Kenyon (who has been playing).

Zack Masciopinto (frosh) at CMU scored the winning goal for CMU today at Chicago.  His brother Alex (senior) is a defender for Case Western playing right now at Wash U.

Staying with the D3 family theme...

Gordon soph Josh Cochran scored with :30 seconds left in regulation to tie their playoff game with Roger Williams 1-1 on Saturday.  Gordon went on to win the game in double OT.  Josh is brother to Will Cochran starting forward at Messiah.

That goal was scored with 30 seconds left...any info on that game? Tough way to end a season for Roger Williams. Still not as bad as the way Williams bowed out against Conn

[blooter442]

That goal was scored with 30 seconds left...any info on that game? Tough way to end a season for Roger Williams. Still not as bad as the way Williams bowed out against Conn

Gordon seemed to be pretty dominant, outshooting their opponents 19-9 and 7-4 SOG. However, RWU took the lead about 13 minutes in. The Scots tied it on a scrum in front of the net. I wrote a bit about the team's contrasting fortunes, and also how it was eerily similar (except a different outcome) to the 2013 semi, also played at Gordon, also decided in OT, and also a 2-1 score in the NE Soccer Discussion.

[4231CenterBack]

Gordon thoroughly dominated. Just like a week earlier down in Rhode Island. Roger Williams tried to compress the space as much as possible. Conceding Gordon the ball until midfield. But they couldn't hang on quite long enough.  Gordon had numerous golden opportunities that were just wide or high. The Roger Williams goal was actually an own goal off a Gordon defender's head.

[NEsoccerfan]

Hero's Ranking

http://herosports.com/college-rankings/d3-mens-soccer-rankings/

Not sure how much value should be given to these rankings. Brandeis ranked #35 with an SOS of 11? They had the best SOS in the country as of the last regional rankings and should certainly be ranked in the top 20 if not the top 8/10. Also, Rowan at #8? Messiah at #11? Amherst at #12? Williams at #30?

[nw_ds]

Those rankings are for the most part nonsense and a perfect example of why you don't let algorithms make all the decisions. I suspect they may take margin of victory into account and hence are penalizing Brandeis for all of the 1-goal wins. I can't think of anything else it could be when you look at it ranking teams above Brandeis that have worse records against weaker schedules.

[Part_Bart]

Hero's Ranking

http://herosports.com/college-rankings/d3-mens-soccer-rankings/

This ranking is based on Greg Bennett's statistical analyses.
You can read more about this at http://herosports.com/featured/bennettrank-preseason-rankings-methodology/
I'm generally supportive of such efforts to use the data of competition to assess competition, and it certainly gives one a different view.
Because it factors in strength of schedule differently, provides some historical weighting, and is a cumulative data ranking, some programs rank much differently than in the NCAA and NSCAA rankings. I note that the Bennett people do mid-season 'corrections' or updates to their algorithm, to reflect performances beyond or below their estimations. Its not clear to me how these get calculated.  And, in doing these, the Bennett rankers both acknowledge their algorithm's imperfections and work hard to update it for reality. From from interacting with the Bennett people, I've learned that their algorithm works better with 20+ data points (so it is a better estimator at season's end than season's beginning, but still not quite enough data to be fully stable).

All this said, my sense is that the Bennett Ranks are pretty solid reflections of the various teams. Those who follow NESCAC and UAA will like how Bennett rankings reflect the strengths of those leagues and teams relative to so many other D3 leagues.  Fans of leagues with weaker teams will find that the Bennett ranking drives down the best teams of that league (the Messiah effect is what Bennett calls this). Its more data for discussion, the teams still have to play to know the outcome....

[Mr.Right]

Yes I cannot wait until Calvin faces a real team.

[NEsoccerfan]

A couple weeks back Amherst seemed like a near lock for a first round bye. Given the last two games I think they've lost that opportunity. Do you all think any other NE team has a chance at a bye? In my opinion, the only two teams that have a chance would be MIT or Brandeis, assuming they both win out. What other teams (including outside of NE) do you think are deserving of a bye if they were to win out? (Tossing out a few guesses: Calvin, Haverford, Montclair St., Oneonta, Thomas Moore, Trinity)