2015 D3 Season: NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

[Mr.Right]

I do not see how OWU is a lock even if they win tonight. That is only 2 wins v ranked. I have never seen so many teams with 5+ regionally ranked wins. I feel like this has been inflated a bit for some reason but oh well.

OWU is a lock, IMO, because they now have three ranked wins for next week - Oberlin jumped into the rankings, meaning OWU has wins over DePauw x2 plus Oberlin.  And with a game at Kenyon plus tonight's game OWU's SoS is going to be around 0.600.  Even with a loss to Kenyon, OWU should be a lock at 15-4-2, 3-3-1 RvR, and SoS 0.590-0.600.

Won't OWU SOS go down against Kenyon? Listen after watching both teams I think they are both NCAA teams I just feel a .510 SOS should not be considered a LOCK

[PaulNewman]

No, it will go way up because Kenyon is 16-1 and an away game for OWU.

[Mr.Right]

Right....My head is still spinning from the Record v Ranked.

Can anyone calculate the 2014 Record v Ranked Totals against 2015

[Ryan Harmanis]

Won't OWU SOS go down against Kenyon? Listen after watching both teams I think they are both NCAA teams I just feel a .510 SOS should not be considered a LOCK

Nope, it'll actually get a really big boost.  Kenyon's win%, taking out their W over OWU, is 0.9375, plus you get the road multiplier.  So even if Kenyon's OOWP is 0.510 (its SOS), I'd roughly calculate the SOS boost to be (stealing from Flying Weasel's approximate method):

[(2/3)*0.9375 + (1/3)*.510]*1.25 = 0.994.  OWU will also get a slight boost for DePauw, as two of DePauw's three losses came to OWU, so once you remove those DePauw's win% is 0.8125.  Even with the home multiplier the SOS OWU gets for playing DePauw, if we assume DePauw's OOWP is close to its SoS around 0.550, would be:

[(2/3)*0.8125 + (1/3)*.557]*0.85 = 0.618.  Now, to get really math-heavy, if we weight those two games against OWU's previous 0.578 SOS for its first 19 games, you end up with:

(19/21)*0.578 + (1/21)*.994 + (1/21)*0.618 = 0.600.  That might be slightly off depending on the OOWP, but basically OWU's SOS is going to be above 0.590.  If you do the same for Kenyon, their SOS should be somewhere between 0.515-0.520 (I get 0.519).

(Also, I'm willing to do this calculation for any team if we throw someone's name out there, obviously I have the OWU ties which means I do it on my own for them).

[PaulNewman]

I think blemishes matter, it's just that this year there are so many teams with a high number of blemishes.  Also, in recent seasons teams such as Rochester (the board's favorite example) have gotten in despite a ton of blemishes because they hit the rest of the criteria (SoS, ranked wins) very well.  So either things have shifted with the committee or our collective understanding of what matters has improved.

Maybe a little of both.  I could almost swear that 2-3 years ago we talked about the number of blemishes the way we've talked about SoS this year.  SoS is the new blemishes, I guess.

[PaulNewman]

Macalester losing in 72nd minute 1-0.

[PaulNewman]

Well, now what happens with Macalester?  And Redlands down 1-0 early.  Both CCIW games deadlocked.  Maybe the best strategy is NOT to make your conference tourney, lol.  RPI and North Park can't pick up any more losses if they aren't playing.

[Wisco21]

Wheaton falls to North Central in penalties. Another Pool C sucked up.

[PaulNewman]

Unreal.  Along with Haverford I thought Wheaton was one of the hottest teams in the country.  In another couple of days Amherst will be on the bubble lol.

[Footy23]

Was a fun game to attend. NCC left it all on the field and got a bit lucky, but came out on top in the end. Wheaton was in and out of sync all night and couldn't put away any of their chances. Only 5 sog out of 24 attempts is a good summary of how the night went for the Thunder. A few unconverted sitters kept the game tight when it should of been blown wide open. Hats off to NCC who went into conference with a 1-9 record and is now in the championship against Carthage who nipped them 1-0 in ot on an own goal a month ago

[lastguyoffthebench]

So Stockton just lost 2 players for the NCAA's?

Stockton and Rowan both picked up losses, but Rowan was ahead in regional ranking AND playing a 17-2 away.  I don't see Stockton jumping them after losing a home game.   Camden now 5-3-1 RvR.   With Wheaton and Macalaster falling spots are filling fast. NJAC or SUNYAC could end up only being 2 bid leagues. 

This is Rutgers-Camden's fifth consecutive NJAC Championship appearance.  That's a pretty phenomenal accomplishment considering the depth of the league... 

[blooter442]

Two conference favorites upset yesterday. Not even counting Amherst getting bounced by a team it had beaten 5-0 the week before.

Gonna set the over/under for conference favorites upset between now and the selection show (including yesterday's two): 5.

[Ji Sung Park the Bus]

So Stockton just lost 2 players for the NCAA's?

Stockton and Rowan both picked up losses, but Rowan was ahead in regional ranking AND playing a 17-2 away.  I don't see Stockton jumping them after losing a home game.   Camden now 5-3-1 RvR.   With Wheaton and Macalaster falling spots are filling fast. NJAC or SUNYAC could end up only being 2 bid leagues. 

This is Rutgers-Camden's fifth consecutive NJAC Championship appearance.  That's a pretty phenomenal accomplishment considering the depth of the league...

So I get taking a whole season into consideration and some wins / losses can be one offs but let's look at the NJAC.  Montclair makes the tournament whether they win or loose the final.  Camden should make the tournament if they loose the final but that would leave them w/ 8 losses and at this point Rowan and Stockton are ranked higher regionally according to the NCAA.  So if NJAC gets a third team in it will be up to Rowan and Stockton.  Both teams are relatively strong and can go on a run in the tournament (no way am I suggesting either can win the tournament but stranger things have happened).  Stockton beat Rowan at Rowan this year, would that be taken into consideration at all when looking at who makes it?  No chance both make it and the NJAC is a 4 team league?  Lots of questions to be answered!!  It's going to be a nervous rest of the week for some teams!!

[lastguyoffthebench]

I would say that the NJAC at this point is a 2 bid league.  Camden has beaten Stockton twice, Newark twice, Rowan once.   Even with their 7 losses at the moment, you'd think they are in contention for a POOL C over both Rowan SA#2 and Stockton SA#3.

Rowan benefits from an away game vs MSU, whereas the home loss hurts Stockton.  If there were a 3rd team, I'd lean Rowan (but even a second team is no guarantee at this point).

Also, I do not think an 8 loss or 9 blemish team has ever received an at-large bid... 

[lastguyoffthebench]

REGION BY REGION SOS RANKINGS

0.5083   New England
0.5069   West
0.5065   South Atlantic
0.5057   East
0.4978   North
0.4970   Central
0.4970   Mid-Atlantic
0.4961   Great Lakes