2015 D3 Season: NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

[Shooter McGavin]

F&M has the stronger SOS and much tougher conference.  Aside from the Dickinson results, F&M is ranked higher in NCAA Regional and D3Soccer.com Top 25.  That's like saying F&M beat E-town, who beat Messiah.   

I'm almost never putting Lyco ahead of F&M given the data points. On top of that, I think F&M would win the head to head battle.

My mid Atlantic rankings
Haverford
F&M
Lyco
E-town
Dickinson
Eastern
Messiah

Jumping here because I find this debate intriguing...

Lycoming is ranked #15 in the NSCAA National Top 25 as to F&M only RV(3)----Advantage Lycoming

Lycoming is ranked 2nd behind Haverford in NSCAA regional rankings as to F&M at 5th!----Advantage Lycoming

F&M was ahead of Lycoming in 3rd NCAA regional rankings by one spot (2 and 3)----Advantage F&M(barely)

One would assume that Lycoming jumped F&M in the final unpublished poll. This can be assumed because of the fall of F&M int he last week of the season as to where Lycoming kept winning.----No advantage to either here

Both teams hosted 1st and 2nd rounds----No advantage either way

F&M SOS slightly higher than Lycoming----Advantage F&M

RvR= Lycoming 2-1 F&M 3-3 (2-3 if Gettysburg doesn't get this magical 9th slot that appeared after the first rankings?)----No advantage either way.

18-2-2 overall record compared to 17-4---Advantage Lycoming

Lycoming beats Dickinson...F&M loses twice to Dickinson

Lycoming 4-2 vs tournament teams...F&M 2-4 vs tournament teams....I think this stat tells it all.

If you total this up it gives an edge to Lycoming. I would have loved to see these teams play each other this year. But Lycoming definitely jumped F&M in the unpublished NCAA rankings and will be ahead of F&M in both the final poll done by D3soccer and NSCAA after the Final 4 concludes. They are only one spot behind F&M in D3soccer in the final regular season poll so that will be an easy jump for them.

[Shooter McGavin]

Both are great teams this is just my philosophy in getting to my point. Honestly they are probably even but I think you have to give the edge to Lycoming. They proved that all the "top 5 of the Centennial is great" talk is just garbage when they took care of Dickinson...something F&M couldn't do either time.

[Shooter McGavin]

F&M has the stronger SOS and much tougher conference.  Aside from the Dickinson results, F&M is ranked higher in NCAA Regional and D3Soccer.com Top 25.  That's like saying F&M beat E-town, who beat Messiah.   

I'm almost never putting Lyco ahead of F&M given the data points. On top of that, I think F&M would win the head to head battle.

My mid Atlantic rankings
Haverford
F&M
Lyco
E-town
Dickinson
Eastern
Messiah

My Mid-Atlantic Rankings:
Haverford
Lyco
F&M
Dickinson
Eastern
Etown
Messiah

[Mr.Right]

Your telling me that Eastern is better than Messiah?  Now I am no Messiah hoorah fan but after watching Eastern play RUC and I know only 1 game and 10 men there is no way that team would beat Messiah.

[lastguyoffthebench]

Im seeing:

F&M   4-4 RvR

Lyco   3-2 RvR

[Shooter McGavin]

Your telling me that Eastern is better than Messiah?  Now I am no Messiah hoorah fan but after watching Eastern play RUC and I know only 1 game and 10 men there is no way that team would beat Messiah.

I do not think they are better than Messiah Mr. Right. I don't think they are better than Etown either. But all the teams listed above Messiah and Etown made the tournament. That's my justification for that. 

[Shooter McGavin]

Im seeing:

F&M   4-4 RvR

Lyco   3-2 RvR

I was doing pre-tournament games. If you include the tourney then yes those are correct(I should have included tourney-oops!).

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

F&M has the stronger SOS and much tougher conference.  Aside from the Dickinson results, F&M is ranked higher in NCAA Regional and D3Soccer.com Top 25.  That's like saying F&M beat E-town, who beat Messiah.   

I'm almost never putting Lyco ahead of F&M given the data points. On top of that, I think F&M would win the head to head battle.

My mid Atlantic rankings
Haverford
F&M
Lyco
E-town
Dickinson
Eastern
Messiah

Fair enough and I appreciate your opinion. I can assure you that after seeing both teams play numerous times this year...Lycoming would breeze by F&M. Just my thoughts. As for my rankings(if we are doing who is the best regardless of making the NCAA tournament or not)I would go like this:

1. Fords
2. Lyco
3. F&M
4. Messiah
5. Dickinson
6. Etown
7. Eastern

Etown put together a nice record but they were/are way overrated. I have no beef with Etown or any other team in the region...but they play in a crap conference(to put it nicely). Should they have gotten in the tournament? Yes they should have. But should they have also won their conference tournament? Yes they should have. Its not like the Commonwealth where 2 teams realistically could have made NCAAs. The Landmark is a 1 bid league and that bid went to Scranton. If Messiah were to play Etown later in the year there is no doubt they cruise in that game. They lost on a wonder goal earlier in the year which shows that it was a fluke(how I feel personally). I have studied this region extensively which by no means makes me an expert but if you check my pre-NCAA predictions for this region they were all spot on of how they would shape up in the bracket. My only glitch was a toss up game between Morrisville St and Cabrini.

Messiah and Dickinson probably would have been the most even game all year if they had played. But I give the edge to Messiah in the rankings because I think they were better than what their record showed...which was still better than Dickinson's overall record at the end of the day even with less games. Fords, Lyco, and F&M are straight forward as no one should have any arguments with that. I explained 4-6 and Eastern wouldn't have a chance against any of those teams if you put them in a 10 game series. Sure they might sneak one out here or there but if they had to play a team 10 times they would consitently lose more than they would win against the top 6 ahead of them.

[lastguyoffthebench]

Hero                        Massey
1) Oneonta St.............Amherst
2) Calvin....................Calvin
3) Amherst.................Oneonta St
4) Haverford...............Haverford
5) Loras.....................Middlebury
6) F&M.......................Trinity (TX)
7) Kenyon..................Kenyon
8) Middlebury.............Brandeis
9) Messiah.................Tufts
10) SLU.......................F&M
11) MSU......................MIT
12) Lycoming...............Bowdoin
13) Trinity (TX).............Lycoming
14) Bowdoin.................MSU
15) Tufts......................Loras
16) Cortland St.............Dickinson
17) OWU......................SLU
18) Wheaton IL.............E-town
19) Rowan...................Williams
20) MIT.......................Chicago
21) Wesleyan...............Wesleyan
22) Williams.................Connecticut
23) Thomas More..........Gordon
24) North Park..............Brockport St
25) Dickinson...............Redlands

[lastguyoffthebench]

F&M has the stronger SOS and much tougher conference.  Aside from the Dickinson results, F&M is ranked higher in NCAA Regional and D3Soccer.com Top 25.  That's like saying F&M beat E-town, who beat Messiah.   

I'm almost never putting Lyco ahead of F&M given the data points. On top of that, I think F&M would win the head to head battle.

My mid Atlantic rankings
Haverford
F&M
Lyco
E-town
Dickinson
Eastern
Messiah

Fair enough and I appreciate your opinion. I can assure you that after seeing both teams play numerous times this year...Lycoming would breeze by F&M. Just my thoughts. As for my rankings(if we are doing who is the best regardless of making the NCAA tournament or not)I would go like this:

1. Fords
2. Lyco
3. F&M
4. Messiah
5. Dickinson
6. Etown
7. Eastern

Etown put together a nice record but they were/are way overrated. I have no beef with Etown or any other team in the region...but they play in a crap conference(to put it nicely). Should they have gotten in the tournament? Yes they should have. But should they have also won their conference tournament? Yes they should have. Its not like the Commonwealth where 2 teams realistically could have made NCAAs. The Landmark is a 1 bid league and that bid went to Scranton. If Messiah were to play Etown later in the year there is no doubt they cruise in that game. They lost on a wonder goal earlier in the year which shows that it was a fluke(how I feel personally). I have studied this region extensively which by no means makes me an expert but if you check my pre-NCAA predictions for this region they were all spot on of how they would shape up in the bracket. My only glitch was a toss up game between Morrisville St and Cabrini.

Messiah and Dickinson probably would have been the most even game all year if they had played. But I give the edge to Messiah in the rankings because I think they were better than what their record showed...which was still better than Dickinson's overall record at the end of the day even with less games. Fords, Lyco, and F&M are straight forward as no one should have any arguments with that. I explained 4-6 and Eastern wouldn't have a chance against any of those teams if you put them in a 10 game series. Sure they might sneak one out here or there but if they had to play a team 10 times they would consitently lose more than they would win against the top 6 ahead of them.

I would say the Landmark conference is stronger than the MACC from top to bottom...  You say that the Landmark is a 1 bid league, but so is MACC.  If Messiah were to win the title, Lycoming would have been in a pickle with one of the last spots in with Thomas More.

E-town beats the same teams that Lyco beat, but they are overrated?   

Common Opponents
                          Lyco                   E-town
Dickinson             2-1.....................2-1
Susqu                  4-2.....................3-1
Scranton              3-0...................2-0 / 2-3
Juniata                 6-0.....................4-1
Alvernia                2-1.....................0-0
Messiah             2-0/1-0..................1-0

[Shooter McGavin]

F&M has the stronger SOS and much tougher conference.  Aside from the Dickinson results, F&M is ranked higher in NCAA Regional and D3Soccer.com Top 25.  That's like saying F&M beat E-town, who beat Messiah.   

I'm almost never putting Lyco ahead of F&M given the data points. On top of that, I think F&M would win the head to head battle.

My mid Atlantic rankings
Haverford
F&M
Lyco
E-town
Dickinson
Eastern
Messiah

Fair enough and I appreciate your opinion. I can assure you that after seeing both teams play numerous times this year...Lycoming would breeze by F&M. Just my thoughts. As for my rankings(if we are doing who is the best regardless of making the NCAA tournament or not)I would go like this:

1. Fords
2. Lyco
3. F&M
4. Messiah
5. Dickinson
6. Etown
7. Eastern

Etown put together a nice record but they were/are way overrated. I have no beef with Etown or any other team in the region...but they play in a crap conference(to put it nicely). Should they have gotten in the tournament? Yes they should have. But should they have also won their conference tournament? Yes they should have. Its not like the Commonwealth where 2 teams realistically could have made NCAAs. The Landmark is a 1 bid league and that bid went to Scranton. If Messiah were to play Etown later in the year there is no doubt they cruise in that game. They lost on a wonder goal earlier in the year which shows that it was a fluke(how I feel personally). I have studied this region extensively which by no means makes me an expert but if you check my pre-NCAA predictions for this region they were all spot on of how they would shape up in the bracket. My only glitch was a toss up game between Morrisville St and Cabrini.

Messiah and Dickinson probably would have been the most even game all year if they had played. But I give the edge to Messiah in the rankings because I think they were better than what their record showed...which was still better than Dickinson's overall record at the end of the day even with less games. Fords, Lyco, and F&M are straight forward as no one should have any arguments with that. I explained 4-6 and Eastern wouldn't have a chance against any of those teams if you put them in a 10 game series. Sure they might sneak one out here or there but if they had to play a team 10 times they would consitently lose more than they would win against the top 6 ahead of them.

I would say the Landmark conference is stronger than the MACC from top to bottom...  You say that the Landmark is a 1 bid league, but so is MACC.  If Messiah were to win the title, Lycoming would have been in a pickle with one of the last spots in with Thomas More.

E-town beats the same teams that Lyco beat, but they are overrated?   

Common Opponents
                          Lyco                   E-town
Dickinson             2-1.....................2-1
Susqu                  4-2.....................3-1
Scranton              3-0...................2-0 / 2-3
Juniata                 6-0.....................4-1
Alvernia                2-1.....................0-0
Messiah             2-0/1-0..................1-0

Well looking at the common opponents you put up (good info btw!) it looks like Lycoming has a better record vs common opponents right?

Lycoming= 7-0-0 with 20 GF and 4 GA
Etown=5-1-1 with 14 GF and 6 GA

Lycoming went 3-0-0 vs Landmark opponents compared to Etown going 1-0-1 vs MACC opponents.

I don't see how this helps your Etown argument? Good info for comparison though so +K for that! 

And to say Lycoming was in a pickle if they had lost to Messiah is outrageous? I think they proved to everybody by their performance throughout the year and in the NCAA tournament that they were/are deserving of their record, accolades, and achievements. I am curious to why so many people hate on certain teams like LastGuy and Mr. Right with Lycoming and some people with Eastern and a couple in other threads that hated on Tufts? I hated on Camden because of the accumulations of losses they had. Didn't mean they weren't a good or dangerous team and they proved my point of teams getting hot at the right time. Luckily they won the NJAC. But at least I back up my logic on why I feel that way. And to back up MAF with Etown I am assuming he will point out Etown's weak SOS as a major reason why he feels that they were a bit overrated. And to be fair I am not sure that the Landmark is better than the MACC...pretty similar if you ask me. But the Landmark has just Etown compared to the MACC that had Lycoming and Messiah...big difference right there if you ask me.

Good discussion though lets keep it going! 

[Shooter McGavin]

Also I forgot to add that the MACC will now be a 2 bid league every year as long as Messiah gets back to where we expect them to. I would also be curious to see the comparison between Lycoming and F&M with common opponents and scores. 

[lastguyoffthebench]

Good points on E-town vs the MACC and Lyco vs the Landmark...

If Lycoming would have lost to Messiah, would E-town have jumped them in the "secret rankings"?


MACC.............. Landmark
13) Lycoming.......................18) E-town
26) Messiah.........................57) Scranton
121) Alvernia.....................107) Drew
140) Arcadia......................127) Susqu
147) Widener.....................130) Merchant Marine
167) LVC...........................135) Catholic
192) Hood.........................225) Goucher
273) Stevenson..................229) Moravian
349) Albright.....................317) Juniata
avg...159............................avg...149

[lastguyoffthebench]

Common Opponents
                          Lyco                   E-town
Dickinson             2-1.....................2-1
Susqu                  4-2.....................3-1
Scranton              3-0...................2-0 / 2-3
Juniata                 6-0.....................4-1
Alvernia                2-1.....................0-0
Messiah             2-0/1-0..................1-0


Shot Count       Lyco                 E-town

Dickinson        (17-14)              (13-4)
Susqu             (17-15)              (19-15)
Scranton         (12-2)                (11-8 / 12-16)
Juniata           (25-7)                 (23-15)
Alvernia          (9-7)                  (16-10)
Messiah          (14-13 / 6-12)     (12-13)

[Shooter McGavin]

                   Common Opponents

                           Lyco.................F&M

LVC                    1-0..................2-0
Arcadia               1-1..................4-0
Alvernia              2-1..................1-0 OT
Stevenson          5-0..................1-0 2OT
Dickinson           2-1..................0-1, 0-1

Lyco went 4-0-1 with 11 GF and 2 GA
F&M went 4-2-0 with 8 GF and 2 GA

Lyco went 1-0 vs Centennial Conference as F&M went 0-2(just common opponents)
Lyco went 3-0-1 in MACC play as F&M went 4-0 (common opponents)