2015 D3 Season: NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

[lastguyoffthebench]

COMMON OPPONENTS
                                            Lyco (shots)...................F&M
LVC......................................1-0 (13-6).....................2-0 (20-3)
Arcadia.................................1-1 (34-6).....................4-0 (19-4)
Alvernia................................2-1 (9-7).......................1-0 (16-2)
Stevenson.............................5-0 (23-4).....................1-0 (24-7)
Dickinson..............................2-1 (17-14)....................0-1 (17-6) / 0-1 (19-10)

[Shooter McGavin]

Good points on E-town vs the MACC and Lyco vs the Landmark...

If Lycoming would have lost to Messiah, would E-town have jumped them in the "secret rankings"?


MACC.............. Landmark
13) Lycoming.......................18) E-town
26) Messiah.........................57) Scranton
121) Alvernia.....................107) Drew
140) Arcadia......................127) Susqu
147) Widener.....................130) Merchant Marine
167) LVC...........................135) Catholic
192) Hood.........................225) Goucher
273) Stevenson..................229) Moravian
349) Albright.....................317) Juniata
avg...159............................avg...149

Pretty much identical. I guess I give the edge to MACC because of having two very strong teams at the top in Messiah and Lycoming (and keep in mind Etown use to be in the MACC up to 2013 which Lycoming beat Messiah and Etown to win the crown that year...and Messiah won the National Championship that year as well!) compared to the Landmark which has just Etown...now like you said top to bottom might give an edge to the Landmark. Very good topic for debate!

[lastguyoffthebench]

Catholic, Susqu, Scranton, Merchant Marine have made the tournament in recent years...

2014 Common Opponents for Lyco/FM with J&W a cross-over in 2014 and 2015.

                                    LYCO.......................F&M
LVC .............................4-0.........................4-0
Alvernia .......................1-0.........................3-3
Stevenson.....................3-1.........................3-1
Rochester......................2-1.........................2-2
Johnson&Wales..............1-0 (2015)..............1-0 (2014)

[Shooter McGavin]

Catholic, Susqu, Scranton, Merchant Marine have made the tournament in recent years...

2014 Common Opponents for Lyco/FM with J&W a cross-over in 2014 and 2015.

                                    LYCO.......................F&M
LVC .............................4-0.........................4-0
Alvernia .......................1-0.........................3-3
Stevenson.....................3-1.........................3-1
Rochester......................2-1.........................2-2
Johnson&Wales..............1-0 (2015)..............1-0 (2014)

Good comparison from 2014 as F&M got in and Lycoming missed out on NCAA's. And the Landmark was/is always a toss up because they don't have a dominating team in the league like the MACC does with Messiah and now Lycoming. No one has won the MACC in the last 15 years(since 2000) besides Messiah, Lycoming and Etown. Messiah has 12, Lycoming has 2 (2 out of last 3) and Etown had 2 in the mid 2000's.

[Flying Weasel]

Since the creation of the Landmark in 2007, the strength/depth edge would go to the Landmark over the Commonwealth in my opinion.  Catholic had a down year this season and besides Etown's surprising campaign it was a lot of mediocrity in 2015.  But the Landmark sent two teams to the NCAA tournament in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012 and 2013 with five different teams making NCAA appearances in the conference's nine year history.  Susquehanna reached the Sweet 16 and Scranton the Elite 8 in 2012.  Merchant Marine was in the Elite 8 in 2010. Catholic has been the conference's most consistently good team and they were PK's from advancing to the Sweet 16 last year.

[Shooter McGavin]

Since the creation of the Landmark in 2007, the strength/depth edge would go to the Landmark over the Commonwealth in my opinion.  Catholic had a down year this season and besides Etown's surprising campaign it was a lot of mediocrity in 2015.  But the Landmark sent two teams to the NCAA tournament in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012 and 2013 with five different teams making NCAA appearances in the conference's nine year history.  Susquehanna reached the Sweet 16 and Scranton the Elite 8 in 2012.  Merchant Marine was in the Elite 8 in 2010. Catholic has been the conference's most consistently good team and they were PK's from advancing to the Sweet 16 last year.

I guess I just feel more strongly for the MACC because of how good Messiah is. No other teams really have to deal with that kind of powerhouse over a 15 year span. There are some of course but Messiah is Messiah and that's hard to compare to. It all depends how you look at it. If you put Catholic or any other team in the MACC would they win it? Probably not. If you put Messiah in the Landmark would they win it? Yes every time probably. Same for Etown before they switched(and are now winning it) and Lycoming recently has shown its dominance over Landmark opponents.

You just can't ignore that part of the equation.

[Shooter McGavin]

How many national championships have been won from a Landmark team compared to the MACC? NCAA tournament wins? Etc... Yes Messiah has a lot to do with that for the MACC but that is why I rank them as a better conference.

[Dark Knight]

Here's Massey's take on conference strength. The power number is measured in goals, so if an average team from conference A played an average team from conference B, and A's power was higher by one, then the team from conference A would win by 1 goal on average.


1. NESCAC      2.50
2. UAA         1.71
3. SUNY AC     1.57
4. Centennial  1.60
5. Liberty Lea 1.52
6. NJAC        1.25
7. C Coast N   1.01
8. NCAC        0.96
9. NE W&M      0.87
10. SCIAC      0.75
11. CCIW       0.69
12. Landmark   0.53
13. MIAC       0.49
14. MACC       0.50
15. Com Coast  0.45
16. Little East 0.40
17. MIAA       0.34
18. Mid Atl    0.32
19. WIAC       0.22
20. Capital    0.28
[27 omitted]
48. U Midwest -3.57

[lastguyoffthebench]

HeroSports Conference Strength
1 NESCAC
2 UAA
3 Liberty-League (5th Massey)
4 WIAC (19th Massey)
5 NJAC  (6th Massey)
6 SUNYAC  (3rd Massey)
7 NEWMAC (9th Massey)
8 North Coast Conference (same)
9 Centennial (4th Massey)
10 IIAC
11 Capital (20th Massey)
12 SCIAC (10th Massey)
13 Minnesota (same)
14 Landmark (12th Massey)
15 CCC (15th Massey)
16 CCIW  (11th Massey)
17 MACC (14th Massey)
18 Little-East (16th Massey)
19 MACF (18th Massey)
20 American Southwest
21 SAA
22 Ohio 
23 Empire 8 
24 NWC
25 Northern-Athletics
26 ODAC 
27 Southern-Collegiate
28 Michigan (17th Massey)
29 Presidents
30 MASCAC
44 Upper Midwest

[Shooter McGavin]

That's just for this year. We are talking present and long term since 2000. Ryan did a great post on the top conferences nationwide a few weeks back and MACC was on the list of top 6. If thats mainly because of Messiah then so be it but you can't discredit the league because of that. All those teams have to deal with Messiah just like other conferences have to deal with their opponents. 

[Flying Weasel]

Well, the Landmark came into existence in 2007, so there's no comparison back to 2000.  If you let the whole conference take credit for having the anomally that is Messiah, then the MAC Commonwealth is the best conference, as good as or better than the NESCAC, Centennial, UAA, etc.  So that's one approach.  I find that largely meaningless as it really only tells us how much better Messiah has been than everybody else in D-III; it tells us next to nothing about the conference as a whole.  I'm a Messiah alum/fan and have nothing against the Commonwealth, but in my opinion if you can get past Messiah, I think the Landmark has had more schools with good teams (2007 to 2014) than the Commonwealth. 

From 2007 TO 2014 . . .
The Landmark has five teams with 8-year overall records above .600; the Commonwealth has two: Messiah and E-town (seven years before move to Landmark).
The Landmark has had five different teams finish the regular season in first (including ties); Messiah has finished in first every year with LVC tying them in 2008.
The Landmark has had four different tournament champions; Messiah has been Commonwealth champs all but 2013 when Lyco upset them and took the title.
The Landmark has had five different teams in the NCAA's versus just two for the Commonwealth.
The Landmark has received two Pool B at-large berths (2008) and four Pool C at-large berths  (2009-2014); the Commonwealth only has the one Pool C at-large selection in 2013 when Messiah was upset in the playoffs.
Landmark teams have appeared in the NCAA tournament 12 times (five different teams ranging from 1 to 4 appearances); Commonwealth teams have appeared in the NCAA tournament 9 times (Messiah 8x, Lyco once).
Landmark teams have a collective 8-11-2 NCAA record with a Sweet 16 and Elite 8 run.  Commonwealth teams have a collective 32-4-1 NCAA record (31-3-1 for Messiah, 1-1-0 for Lyco) with Messiah's 5 titles and Elite 8 run.

If you matched up conferences' #1 teams, #2 teams, #3 teams, and so on, I think the Landmark would have been a little more competitive in spots #2 through #5 against other conferences over the last 8 years than the Commonwealth would have been.

[Shooter McGavin]

Well, the Landmark came into existence in 2007, so there's no comparison back to 2000.  If you let the whole conference take credit for having the anomally that is Messiah, then the MAC Commonwealth is the best conference, as good as or better than the NESCAC, Centennial, UAA, etc.  So that's one approach.  I find that largely meaningless as it really only tells us how much better Messiah has been than everybody else in D-III; it tells us next to nothing about the conference as a whole.  I'm a Messiah alum/fan and have nothing against the Commonwealth, but in my opinion if you can get past Messiah, I think the Landmark has had more schools with good teams (2007 to 2014) than the Commonwealth. 

From 2007 TO 2014 . . .
The Landmark has five teams with 8-year overall records above .600; the Commonwealth has two: Messiah and E-town (seven years before move to Landmark).
The Landmark has had five different teams finish the regular season in first (including ties); Messiah has finished in first every year with LVC tying them in 2008.
The Landmark has had four different tournament champions; Messiah has been Commonwealth champs all but 2013 when Lyco upset them and took the title.
The Landmark has had five different teams in the NCAA's versus just two for the Commonwealth.
The Landmark has received two Pool B at-large berths (2008) and four Pool C at-large berths  (2009-2014); the Commonwealth only has the one Pool C at-large selection in 2013 when Messiah was upset in the playoffs.
Landmark teams have appeared in the NCAA tournament 12 times (five different teams ranging from 1 to 4 appearances); Commonwealth teams have appeared in the NCAA tournament 9 times (Messiah 8x, Lyco once).
Landmark teams have a collective 8-11-2 NCAA record with a Sweet 16 and Elite 8 run.  Commonwealth teams have a collective 32-4-1 NCAA record (31-3-1 for Messiah, 1-1-0 for Lyco) with Messiah's 5 titles and Elite 8 run.

If you matched up conferences' #1 teams, #2 teams, #3 teams, and so on, I think the Landmark would have been a little more competitive in spots #2 through #5 against other conferences over the last 8 years than the Commonwealth would have been.

Great stuff FW. And my point I was trying to get at but I guess I didn't convey it well (turkey on my mind  ) is that if you take Messiah out of the picture from the Commonwealth you would have that same kind of parity in the MACC as the Landmark has because they don't have a Messiah to suck up all the championships. Am I making sense? I'm not arguing at all with you or Last Guy. Just trying to convey my thoughts and possibly sway your thoughts too 

[Flying Weasel]

Good discussion. Agreed, without Messiah you'd likely have the same number of different teams getting the AQ's from the Commonwealth as the Landmark.  That is, a lot of parity and musical chairs in the standings year to year.

However, my key points in support of the Landmark being the better/strionger/deeper conference of the two would be the overall winning percentages, number of at-large berths, and how each conference would stack-up #1-vs-#1, #2-vs-#2, etc. with other conferneces.  For example, it is my opinion that without Messiah, the Commonwealth would never have had a shot at any at-large berths, whereas the Landmark has gotten a second team in via a Pool C at-large berth four times in the previous six years (2009-2014) and got two Pool B at-large berths in 2008 (when the conference was still in provisional status).  That's two tournament teams in five of seven years from 2008 thru 2014.  That's not bad at all.  When did the Commonwealth have two tournament-worthy teams in that time frame? But enough about the Landmark and Commonwealth already!

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Interesting information as I see both sides to the debate. I would have to lean towards FW in saying that the Landmark top to bottom has been the better league since 2007, but with that being said I think the league with the best contenders for NCAA's clearly goes to the MACC. The Landmark actually gained strength with Etown and the MACC lost strength by there departure. Lycoming has come on the scene strong since 2013 when Gibboney took over as head coach. I don't think Lycoming's success is an accident. And as long as he stays the head coach they will be a team we will be talking about for many years to come. The MACC is setting up for a great rivalry in years to come between Messiah and Lycoming if it's anything like the past 3. Both teams are 3-3 with some fantastic games and finishes. I do agree that the MACC has/will become a 2 bid league. The Landmark will always be a 1 bid league unless they get a "Messiah" and then a "Lycoming" to meet the challenger. (Based off of this year---not counting since 2007---FW is right about 2 bids since 08 and etc...).

Both leagues have 9 teams which makes it nice for comparisons.

Landmark:

Rank-------Team---------Overall Record
1   Elizabethtown.........17-2-1                     
T2   Scranton...............11-7-2                   
T2Susquehanna................9-7-2                   
4   Catholic.................7-10-2                        
5   Drew....................12-5-3                         
6   Merchant...............9-7-1                         
7   Goucher...............6-11-1                        
8   Moravian...............7-9-2                        
9   Juniata.................4-13-1   

5 winning records and 4 losing records

82-73-15


MACC:

Rank-----Team--------Overall Record
1. Lycoming.............18-2-2
2. Messiah...............14-5-1
3. LVC....................8-10-0
4. Arcadia................11-7-3
5. Widener...............9-10-1
6. Hood..................12-9-0
7. Alvernia................9-7-6
8. Stevenson............5-12-1
9. Albright................1-15-1       

5 winning records and 4 losing records

87-77-15

They are almost identical. So if they are an even league(this year) and you needed to pick a clear cut winner it would have to go to the MACC because of how top heavy it is with Lycoming and Messiah and based off NCAA tournament advancement this year Lycoming also gives the MACC the edge over Scranton and the Landmark.

I like the topic guys it makes for great discussion and it would be interesting to see a year by year comparison for overall records. Might do that in some spare time.
            

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Good discussion. Agreed, without Messiah you'd likely have the same number of different teams getting the AQ's from the Commonwealth as the Landmark.  That is, a lot of parity and musical chairs in the standings year to year.

However, my key points in support of the Landmark being the better/strionger/deeper conference of the two would be the overall winning percentages, number of at-large berths, and how each conference would stack-up #1-vs-#1, #2-vs-#2, etc. with other conferneces.  For example, it is my opinion that without Messiah, the Commonwealth would never have had a shot at any at-large berths, whereas the Landmark has gotten a second team in via a Pool C at-large berth four times in the previous six years (2009-2014) and got two Pool B at-large berths in 2008 (when the conference was still in provisional status).  That's two tournament teams in five of seven years from 2008 thru 2014.  That's not bad at all.  When did the Commonwealth have two tournament-worthy teams in that time frame? But enough about the Landmark and Commonwealth already!

Correct and the MACC has only had 2 worthy teams the past 3 seasons(personal opinion). They should have had 2 in 2013(and they did) 2014 (Lyco got snubbed) and 2015 (Messiah got snubbed). Honestly Messiah was one of the better teams in the country this year. It's a shame they couldn't scrape out a win for one of their losses. They would have been dancing and been fun to see progress but I guess there is always next year!