2015 NCAA Tournament

[KnightSlappy]

Concordia at Stevens Point could be good. Concordia is hot after knocking off the #1 and #2 NACC seeds on the road. Point still rememberS their struggles in the tourney last year and they just dropped one at home to middle-of-the pack Oshkosh.

I'm not sure how hot Concordia really is. Massey has them at 117, right behind Eau Claire and River Falls (who they lost to in game #3 by 16). They also lost to Dubuque in the first game of the year.

Really, John? It's tourney time and I claim they're hot because they've won 7 games in a row including 2 on the road against higher seeded teams. You counter by telling me they lost the 1st game of the season...27 games ago. I'm sure their confidence is high and they are obviously playing well.

Six games, and those were all close games against medium-to-bad opponents.

[Greek Tragedy]

Yeah. Like I said, I thought it was BV but it was still a trek. In the back of my mind I thought GAC, but didn't feel like looking. 

[Greek Tragedy]

You guys are missing my point. I'm not saying they ran through CCIW/WIAC/UAA quality opponents.  They played their conference schedule and won 2 tourney games on the road. Beating Aurora on the road was big since they hadn't beaten them yet. That can't hurt their confidence.

[Gregory Sager]

I'm sure it doesn't, Tom.

But the pertinent question concerns the Falcons' competence, not their confidence.

[Just Bill]

Concordia isn't as good as Marian was last year. I don't think that game will be particularly close.

[Greek Tragedy]

And Point isn't as good as last year either. 

[David Collinge]

Curious what people think is the best 1st game is.

I think St. Norbert has a lot to prove and this is their chance. A home game vs a good team from a power conference.

VWU and John Carroll could be another good game.

Concordia at Stevens Point could be good. Concordia is hot afyafter knocking off the #1 and #2 NACC seeds on the road. Point still rememberS their struggles in the tourney last year and they just dropped one at home to middle-of-the pack Oshkosh.

Your first two are pretty good candidates.  I'd add WPI @ SJF, OWU v. Olaf @ UWW, Albertus v. Springfield @ Dickinson, and DePauw @ WashU.  Seems like far more quality first-round games than usual this year.

I would not be surprised to see Washington win that game by 25.

[John Gleich]

And Point isn't as good as last year either. 

I dunno.... they both had the same conference record!

This Concordia team isn't senior laden. They've got a lot of juniors (7) and the leading scorer is a sophomore, followed by 4 juniors, so they might be a team to watch next year. I guess they did beat Aurora, who had 7 seniors, but Benedictine seems like they're a year away too (7 juniors, though leading scorer is one of the two seniors, and the other started half the games this year).

If you think about the NACC teams that have caused some troubles or been highly regarded (at least high enough to host, like Concordia in '11-'12, or who have either won a game like Edgewood @ UWRF also in '11-'12, or came darn close, like Marian last year), they've all been senior laden teams with very good records (Concordia was 21-5, Edgewood was 22-6, Marian was 21-6). When Concordia loses, it will be loss #10. It's a good season... but it doesn't show the trajectory like those other teams (who went a combined 1-3 in the tournament anyway).

But maybe I'm wrong and they'll beat Point. More likely if Lutz can't go. And even then I'll end up eating my shoe, drenched in crow sauce.

[augie_superfan]

For anyone interested, I simulated the tournament using Massey ratings.  You can see the full results in the attached PDF file (won't let me upload so here is a link to it)

https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=sites&srcid=ZGVmYXVsdGRvbWFpbnxkM2Jhc2tldGJhbGxpbmRleHxneDoxZjUwMWM4YTE1Yzg5ZWM5

The way to read the spreadsheet is value is the probability of the team reaching a certain round (last column is probability of winning it all).

Top Chances of Winning Tourney
St. Thomas                                17.3%
UW-Whitewater                          14.9%
UW-Stevens Point                       8.8%
Randolph-Macon                         8.7%
Babson                                        8.6%
Augustana                                   8.6%

From this simulation, I can compare it to a "properly seeded" (according to Massey) tournament to rank the "Easiest" and "Hardest" roads to the Final Four.  Here they are below:

Easiest
Richard Stockton
Trinity (CT)
Endicott
Eastern CT
Salisbury
Dickinson
Johns Hopkins

Hardest
Elmhurst
Ohio Wesleyan
Wash U
IWU
St. Olaf
St. Norbert
CMS

[Greek Tragedy]

And Point isn't as good as last year either. 

I dunno.... they both had the same conference record!

You know as well as I do the conference was also down this year.

[David Collinge]

Curious what people think is the best 1st game is.

I think St. Norbert has a lot to prove and this is their chance. A home game vs a good team from a power conference.

VWU and John Carroll could be another good game.

Concordia at Stevens Point could be good. Concordia is hot afyafter knocking off the #1 and #2 NACC seeds on the road. Point still rememberS their struggles in the tourney last year and they just dropped one at home to middle-of-the pack Oshkosh.

Your first two are pretty good candidates.  I'd add WPI @ SJF, OWU v. Olaf @ UWW, Albertus v. Springfield @ Dickinson, and DePauw @ WashU.  Seems like far more quality first-round games than usual this year.

I would not be surprised to see Washington win that game by 25.

Then again, I guess DPU is on a roll. They lead WUSTL 40-35 at the half.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Curious what people think is the best 1st game is.

I think St. Norbert has a lot to prove and this is their chance. A home game vs a good team from a power conference.

VWU and John Carroll could be another good game.

Concordia at Stevens Point could be good. Concordia is hot afyafter knocking off the #1 and #2 NACC seeds on the road. Point still rememberS their struggles in the tourney last year and they just dropped one at home to middle-of-the pack Oshkosh.

Your first two are pretty good candidates.  I'd add WPI @ SJF, OWU v. Olaf @ UWW, Albertus v. Springfield @ Dickinson, and DePauw @ WashU.  Seems like far more quality first-round games than usual this year.

I would not be surprised to see Washington win that game by 25.

Then again, I guess DPU is on a roll. They lead WUSTL 40-35 at the half.

David, David, David.  If I say it will be a good game, there is at least a 40% chance it will indeed be a good game!

(Sorry about the opening.  My older son is David, so I got used to saying ....)

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Curious what people think is the best 1st game is.

I think St. Norbert has a lot to prove and this is their chance. A home game vs a good team from a power conference.

VWU and John Carroll could be another good game.

Concordia at Stevens Point could be good. Concordia is hot afyafter knocking off the #1 and #2 NACC seeds on the road. Point still rememberS their struggles in the tourney last year and they just dropped one at home to middle-of-the pack Oshkosh.

Your first two are pretty good candidates.  I'd add WPI @ SJF, OWU v. Olaf @ UWW, Albertus v. Springfield @ Dickinson, and DePauw @ WashU.  Seems like far more quality first-round games than usual this year.

I would not be surprised to see Washington win that game by 25.

So, is it fair to say you're surprised - or is that a logical fallacy?

[Greek Tragedy]

Or lose. Not looking good. 79-73 DePauw with 15 seconds left.

[Gregory Sager]

DePauw 83
Washington (MO) 73

Fun game to watch until the free-throw parade at the end. DePauw center Tommy Fernitz was huge down the stretch.