2015 NCAA North Region

[Flying Weasel]

I forgot one thing at the end of my last post and that is that after looking at the proportional representation in the AA selections, any argument that a bias against the Midwest and in favor of the East exists now requires making the case that the Midwest is stronger and deeper than the East and on that basis deserves a disproportionately greater number of AA selections.  Not sure if anyone wants to try to build that case or not.

So, returning to KICKIN's claim that got me started down this path:

I do think there is an East Coast bias, but there's also a super majority of the DIII players and fans to support them.  Loras (and other North & Central Region teams for that matter ) has had many players left off of AA squads because of this.  The numbers are so lop sided that you have to be an Uber player to even be considered. The past 5 years Loras has had a handful of 2nd team and Hon Men AA and I  believe 1 1st teamer. You place those 2nd team and HonMen in the East Coast and they are 1st teamers. One example is last years IIAC Defensive POY from Loras Mike Pizzello.  He was also the leading scorer in the conference with 14 goals.  A man child that dominated matches. He would have been a 1st teamer, but being in this Region I believe  kept him out of the top slot.

Since it has been shown that the East is clearly not getting a disproportionately greater number of AA selections than the Midwest, do you stand by your statement that many North and Central players have been overlooked due to east coast bias?  Do you stand by your statement that "the numbers are so lopsided that you have to be an Uber player to get considered"?

[PaulNewman]

I forgot one thing at the end of my last post and that is that after looking at the proportional representation in the AA selections, any argument that a bias against the Midwest and in favor of the East exists now requires making the case that the Midwest is stronger and deeper than the East and on that basis deserves a disproportionately greater number of AA selections.  Not sure if anyone wants to try to build that case or not.

So, returning to KICKIN's claim that got me started down this path:

I do think there is an East Coast bias, but there's also a super majority of the DIII players and fans to support them.  Loras (and other North & Central Region teams for that matter ) has had many players left off of AA squads because of this.  The numbers are so lop sided that you have to be an Uber player to even be considered. The past 5 years Loras has had a handful of 2nd team and Hon Men AA and I  believe 1 1st teamer. You place those 2nd team and HonMen in the East Coast and they are 1st teamers. One example is last years IIAC Defensive POY from Loras Mike Pizzello.  He was also the leading scorer in the conference with 14 goals.  A man child that dominated matches. He would have been a 1st teamer, but being in this Region I believe  kept him out of the top slot.

Since it has been shown that the East is clearly not getting a disproportionately greater number of AA selections than the Midwest, do you stand by your statement that many North and Central players have been overlooked due to east coast bias?  Do you stand by your statement that "the numbers are so lopsided that you have to be an Uber player to get considered"?

FW, so do you now think based on your data that the Midwest is benefiting from "Midwest bias"?  If not, your logic may be faulty in suggesting that a response "now requires" showing that the Midwest has a larger number of better players.

I don't think that has to be the case.  I started this to some degree by asking Kickin if he thought some players in other regions were overrated or underrated and if he had had any opinion on "east coast bias".  He did indeed respond by referencing the AA stuff and a specific player from Loras.  But the discussion/debate, from my POV doesn't have to be reduced to AA lists.  Your data and conclusions (and I question your conclusions) are limited to the D3 soccer AA lists from 2010 to 2014.  Yes, the data are interesting, but what do they reflect beyond the lists themselves?

In other words, I am going to suggest that there is a correlation error in your analysis.  AA lists, as well as all-conference lists are notorious for "spreading the wealth."  That's how I interpret the distribution and the fact that we see players chosen from schools most of us didn't even know existed or from normally weakly advertised area.  Not sure we can extrapolate this one list as proving or disproving whether any region enjoys a bias....not even with respect to just the D3 AA lists, if the panel who decides makes some intentional effort to "spread the wealth" or makes selections based on any number of perhaps other unintended factors/influences.  Facts are facts.  But why certain facts are used or how they are interpreted often is far from clear.

[Wisco21]

All this discussion really makes me wish that the resources were available to consistently pit teams from the midwest, north, and west against eastern teams. Maybe one day when money starts to grow on trees

Anywho here's my stab at predicting tomorrow's regional rankings:

1.) UW Whitewater 11-2. Knocking off Loras College should warrant the #1 spot. DA Loras, LA North Park.
2.) Loras College 6-3-1. Even at their current record, the DuHawks deserving of at least top 3. LH UWW, DA Central.
3.) College of St. Scholastica 10-1. Only beat 3W-8L Minnesota Morris 1-0 this past weekend, was expecting more from goals-galore CSS. DA Minn Morris.
4.) UW Oshkosh 9-1-1. Handled St. Norbert's 3-0 midweek. True tests on 10/7 home vs. Wheaton (Ill.) and on the road 10/11 at Scholastica. DH St. Norbert.
T5.) Macalester 6-0-4. Still undefeated Scots could either go above or below the Johnnies. Solid two wins at home. DH Luther, DH St. Olaf.
T5.) St. John's 8-1-2. Could either go above or below Scots. DH Augsburg, DA UW Superior.
7.) Dubuque 7-2-1. Two away wins since last Tuesday sees the Spartans above the Tommies. DA Monmouth, DA Simpson.
8.) St. Thomas 7-3. Loss at Hamline puts a blotch on Tommies' resume. DH Concordia-Moorhead, LA Hamline.
9.) Luther 7-3-2. Most likely Pool A or bust (sitting 2-0 in conference), could winning out attest for an at-large? LA Macalester, DH Buena Vista.
10.) UW Superior 10-3. UMAC's weak conference not doing the Yellowjackets any favors. DH Northland, DA Crown, LH St. John's.

[Wisco21]

Score predictions of matches that I'll be following this evening:

UWW 5
Central 0

UST 3
Carthage 2

Wheaton 1
UWO 1

Aurora 0
MSOE 4

Dubuque 3
UWP 1

[SuperSub15]

St. Thomas loses to Carthage 1-0 in the 89th minute. Stats looked about even.

[Wisco21]

Wow goals hard to come by this Wednesday! Surprised at the MSOE-Aurora result!

[TennesseeJed]

Wow goals hard to come by this Wednesday! Surprised at the MSOE-Aurora result!

I was surprised too, especially after looking at Box Score.  19 shots for MSOE vs. 4 for Aurora.  Obviously, it only took one!  Must not have been the Andryk bros day.

[casualfan]

I was able to see the 2nd half of MSOE-Aurora live. Walked up as Aurora was celebrating their goal right before half. From the murmurs in the crowd, it sounds like it was quite the goal for Aurora.

Second half, Aurora was content to sit in and counter. They have 2 forwards who are big, strong, and fast which allowed for them to have a half-chance or two in the second half but it was all MSOE other than that.

But with Aurora packed in, MSOE seemed content with serving balls in from distance that Aurora was able to deal with fairly easily. Set pieces are always a danger for opposing teams against the Raiders as Logan Andryk hits a perfect serve just about every time. They also have 2-3 guys who are fairly good in the air, Skow & Cwiok in particular.

MSOE did have a penalty shout with 10 minutes or so left that I felt was warranted. Judging by the angle the referee had, he may not have been able to see it. Braden Andyrk was tripped up from behind just as he was about to strike one on goal from about 10 yards. AR was on the far side and had no view of it either.

[dontshootthegoose]

1. Whitewater (12-2) with a rough 1-0 win against Central at home   
2. Loras (7-3-1) with a 4-0 and 2-0 win both at Central and Wartburg 
3. St. Scholastica (11-1) with a huge game today at home against  (4.)Oshkosh (9-1-2), this will be the ultimate test for both teams. If Scholastica wins, you can almost write the Pool B bid to UWW. If Oshkosh wins, then that showdown against UWW looks very interesting.
5. Macalester (7-0-5) pulls 3 goals late for their 7th win at St. Thomas. Reminds me a lot of 2013's Oshkosh team, they have a lot of ties but no loses.
5. St. Johns (9-1-2) barely gets by Bethel 1-0. They will have a huge test against GAC coming up.
7. Dubuque (9-2-1), continues to roll. But still lack a key win.
8. St. Thomas (7-5) have just dropped 3 straight losses (including hamline). Unless they win the MIAC tournament, their post season activities look dull.
9.Luther (7-3-3) with a tie against Simpson. Play Dubuque later on this week. Like St. Thomas, are really hoping from a conference tournament championship to have any hope.
10. Superior (11-3) with no key wins. Only hope is to win the UMAC conference tournament. If that were to happen, (which I don't think will) I see Scholastica having a hard case to make it into the NCAA Tournament as an "at large bid"


My thoughts so far,

I think Loras, UWW, Oshkosh, Macalester, and Scholastica are looking pretty.

Loras because they have an extremely tough schedule and have had some really good results. And also I see them cruising in the conference tournament.

UWW- Have some good wins (possibly 4 regional ranked wins). Would still have to play Oshkosh, depending on how today's game goes, could have serious implications with regards to the pool B. But I see this as a year where Oshkosh and UWW take the Pool B and a Pool C bid, all dependent on the national conference tournament time.

Macalester, they haven't lost and have had a couple key wins. Need to grab another couple wins to not worry about winning the conference tournament.

Scholastica, as long as they win there conference tournament (which they easily should) will make another tournament appearance.


With all that being said, MSOE just dropped their second straight. One against Dominican, their conference rival. Which really has serious implications when regional rankings come out, because in my opinion that drops them out of the top 5 central rankings. Which takes a W out of UWW and UWOs regional win column.

I had the chance to watch Dominican at Rockford, and was in shock of how much the level of play Dominican dropped. They only won 2-0  against a young Rockford team. That being said, I think Rockford played extremely well for their normal level of play. But Dominican looked young, inexperienced, and like a team that would struggle in the North.

[PaulNewman]

Nice analysis, goose. 

[dontshootthegoose]

Thanks New England!



Currently watching the Scholastica/Oshkosh game.

I'll be the first to admit that I have undervalued Scholastica's level of play. Both these teams play beautiful soccer. Scholastica had more opportunities in the first half, I did miss the Scholastica goal. But Oshkosh has picked up the pace and has gone more direct. Oshkosh's goal came off a rebound in the box off a free-kick/corner.

Scholastica has some really good offensive threats and can score goals, whereas Oshkosh won't blow a team out of the water but are extremely hard to score on.

As I am typing, a slotted ball across the box finds an Oshkosh player from about 10 yards out on the right side of the box and slots it to the opposite side netting. [/b]

[Wisco21]

Predictions for tomorrow

1.) UWW - no change
2.) Loras - no change
3.) UWO - beat CSS
4.) CSS - lost to UWO
5.) Macalester - still undefeated but holy 5 draws
T7.) UD - lack a key win
T7.) SJU - lack a key win
9.) Wartburg?
10.) Luther?

My opinion: The top 3 are starting to separate themselves from the rest of the pack. CSS will be fine with AQ. The mess in Minnesota is very real with Macalester, Dubuque, and St. Johns all in the same boat. UD has two matches left to really make a statement vs. the two top dawgs in the north, University Of Water That Has Absence Of Color and the DUHAWKERS & CO. SJU is @ Macalester on 10/27 -- could be fun. Don't forget about St. Olaf who are 4-1 in conference. Is it too late for anyone in the MIAC get anything else besides an AQ???

It's been a long day lads, waiting until Tuesday for these rankings is really killing my Monday vibes

[dontshootthegoose]

Completely agree with your rankings and analysis Wisco.

The top 3 in UWW, Loras, and UWO are not only the top teams in the region, but also the nation. I do think Loras has taken a step down from where they have been in years past, but still are a deadly team.

The Minnesota conference is and always has been chaos. They have so many talented teams that beat up on each other and struggle to set themselves apart from one another. I think there will be only one AQ from that conference as well, I can't see a team from that conference who doesn't win an AQ receive a Pool C over either UWW/UWO (whoever doesn't receive the Pool B).

As for Dubuque, they can either win that conference tournament against Loras/Wartburg/Luther, or can win against UWW and Loras to close out the season. And that would make a good case for the NCAA tournament.

St. Olaf's only chance is to win the AQ. 6-5 and only real wins are in conference among each other.



So my predictions for tournament bids (so far):

UWW: Pool B
Loras- will make it regardless of AQ
UWO: Pool C- Far superior than any other team battling for a Pool C (even across the nation)
CSS: Should win conference against a Superior team that lost 10 players


And then there is everyone from the MIAC for that one spot. Even if Macalester were to lose, they may have an outside chance depending on how many pool c's are still open and how they finish out.

As for the IIAC, UD will probably have the best chance to get an at-large depending on how they finish out and if Loras wins the tournament. But if Wartburg/Luther wins the conference tournament, Dubuque would be out.

And then the MWC with all those average teams, only one AQ will come from that.

[Homegrown Harry]

Goose and others, just curious to how you see the IIAC playing out.
Goose as you posted
"As for the IIAC, UD will probably have the best chance to get an at-large depending on how they finish out and if Loras wins the tournament. But if Wartburg/Luther wins the conference tournament, Dubuque would be out."

Loras - safe to say they are in the dance regardless of the rest of the season
UD - must they get the AQ?  Not sure about their SOS.  They do have two tuff matches left and could conceivalbly drop both.
Wartburg - in theory have a good chance to run the table the rest of the regular season, weak SOS and loss to UW-S could hurt them.  Do they need the AQ to get in?  Stranger things have happened such as Luther last year not getting an at large.
Luther- probably need to get the AQ.

So, if Loras wins the AQ, are they the only IIAC team to represent??

[Wisco21]

Mr. Harry, this is my prediction for the IIAC:

I'll preface this by saying the only I have only seen Loras, Dubuque, Wartburg, and Central play this year either in-person or via stream.

Loras - The swarm will take care of teams most of the time. However, with 6 matches still to play in two weeks, can the DuHawks stay healthy through the end of the season and conference tournament? I believe Loras has already punched their ticket to go dancing.

Dubuque - I saw them take on MSOE and Wartburg via video feed. Their last six games have been: WWWWWW. Still have Luther, UWW, Loras. They will need to get a W in at least TWO of these matches to even have some sort of chance at Pool C. The subjective NCAA committee loves SOS and results against regionally ranked opponents- two categories not in UD's favor. I believe Dubuque must win the IIAC tournament.

Wartburg - I miss the smashmouth Wartburg of last year. This year's team is too inconsistent for me. That being said, they still have the tools to salvage the end of the year conference tournament. This is the Knight's only way in. I believe Wartburg must win the IIAC tournament.

Luther - Have not see them yet this year. They have 5 matches left, 4 of which look pretty tasty (Dubuque, Loras, UWO, Wartburg). Like Dubuque, the Norse are up against it for a Pool C. I do not see them getting an At-Large. I believe Luther must win the IIAC tournament.

Only Loras will receive a Pool C bid if things get shaky and the DuHawk favorites lose in the IIAC conference tournament. Luckily for us viewing at home, end of the year conference tournaments are almost always shaky!

Love this time of year.