2015 NCAA North Region

[Homegrown Harry]

Wisco
I agree with you assessment.
Last year's Wartburg being smashmouth, I think last year they only way they got in was to win the AQ.
They had like 6 draws last year.
They did some good things and some bad as Loras last weekend.
For them to win the AQ, they need to figure out a few things out like scoring/finishing.
They have their highlights (if you can call it that) up on their website and they show two pretty good chances but couldn't put the ball in the net.

[Wisco21]

Overlooked Wartburg's schedule a little bit. They have six matches remaining, all of which are very winnable. That would put them at 14-4-1 if they win out, with momentum into the IIAC tourney. Five blemishes with losses to Loras, Dubuque, Colorado College, UW Superior and a draw with undefeated Macalester.

Is 5 blemishes too many? I think they're right on the bubble, the Knights have no room for error if they wanna make some noise

[dontshootthegoose]

Hey guys!

I completely agree with Wisco's analysis with the IIAC. I think Wartburg is in an extremely tough spot, regardless of how they close out the regular season. Their 5 blemishes have been to good teams,the problem there though is that these are the teams they need to beat for "regional wins". Hypothetically, even if they win out, put their record/results against an Oshkosh or Dubuques, or even a MIAC team that finishes second, I don't think would look favorable.

The rankings by NSCAA/D3/Massey/HEROsports have been published for the last week, very interesting.

UWW:                      11/10/34/29
LORAS:                   14/20/30/10
UWO:                      17/23/28/12
CSS:                       23/NR/81/49


So obviously NSCAA/D3 are what we are accustomed too. NSCAA is a coaches poll, so some bias can interfere with rankings.  The D3soccer.com Top 25 is voted on by a panel of coaches, Sports Information Directors and D3soccer.com staff, and is published weekly. And both Massey and HERO are calculated approaches including: SOS, OFF ranking, DEF ranking, Estimated wins/losses, home advantage, and "heat"".

[Wisco21]

Goose and others,

Going of off these rankings that Goose has so nicely laid out for us, I will be venturing out on a limb....what are the chances one or more of these four teams (or other  north region squads) can make a deep run into the NCAA tournament? Elite 8? Final 4? Ambitious, I know, but with the season playing out like it has so far, what's stopping any team from saying, "hey, we really have a chance to blow this thing open, this national title is anyone's for the taking!"

Would be very interested to hear everyone's opinions on this!

[dontshootthegoose]

Hey Wisco21,

The chances for each of the four teams mentioned are good. I would even throw the MIAC victor into the mix as well. Problem is that we all are clumped together in the same region and we beat up on each other. Normally a couple teams will slip else where into one of the other quadrants (North Park last year).  If you look at last years Sweet 16, it was Wheaton/ Wartburg/Loras/ Trinity TX.

Obviously this year, UWW/UWO/Loras all have the tools to be in that mix. Problem is that they will be going up against the best of the central region (Wheaton/WashU/Chicago/Calvin/North Park) and they love to throw Trinity our way too.

[dontshootthegoose]

Down goes Oshkosh!

[PaulNewman]

Down goes Oshkosh!

Yep, I'm devastated.

[Wisco21]

Ugh, me too NCAC. I was at the match, UWO simply didn't show up today. Platteville wanted it more and they deserved the victory. The lads need to figure it out quick as they have two MUST WIN matches this upcoming week at home vs. Luther and UWW if they want to stay in the mix.

Hopefully this is one of those losses that can help them refocus, mind you, Oshkosh hasn't experienced a loss since September 1st at the hands of Loras. Under these circumstances, it will be interesting to see how the regional rankings look this Wednesday, St. Scholastica did win today.

[Dubuquer]

Just left the Luther-Loras game with 30 minutes left.  Loras was up 5-0.  It looked the nice guys from Decorah were bent on ensuring a successful Senior Day in the Rock Bowl for the Duhawks.

[dontshootthegoose]

I mean I absolutely hate to do this, but what happens if Platteville finishes strong?   They are 8-3-3 and have UWW at home, Wartburg at home, and away at Loras....
Hypothetically, if they were to win out, that Pool B could be calling their name (with head to head wins against UWO/UWW)

My honest prediction is that although they will show up and play tough against all the teams, they may win 1 and grab a tie. Still the biggest game of the year comes down to UWW/UWO.  But this goes to show, you have to show up each and every night.

UWW has the ball in their court, but still has a tough test with their 3 road games: Dubuque, Oshkosh, Platteville. For the pool b bid, they MUST beat or tie Oshkosh. I think regardless of those other games, they are in a good spot.


I'll leave this here....... What happens if UWO beats UWW, and then UWW beats Platteville???

[Medicated Pete]

and down goes Loras, Tommies with the 2-1 victory 

[Wisco21]

Hmm I'm both surprised/unsurprised at this result. Surprised in how Loras dominated on Saturday and then wasn't able to ride their momentum into today. Possibly a senior night hangover? Unsurprised in how the Tommies had the DuHawk's number last year and now again this year. Maybe Loras made the same mistake as UWO did this past weekend of overlooking a 5 loss St. Thomas squad. It's easy to get hyped for the Saturday night conference match, not so easy to do the same on a Monday afternoon.

[dontshootthegoose]

As I said before (not to take away from St. Thomas/UWW/Depauw/St.John's), Loras is not the same team they have been in years past. It shows in their roller coaster of a season. Not to understate their talent, because on any single night they can beat any team in the nation, but they are very streaky and are unpredictable.

With both Loras and UWO losses, UWW is even sitting prettier as the top dog. 

My regional rankings:

1.) UWW - Win vs Simpson (2-1)
2.) Loras - Win vs Coe (4-0), Win vs Luther (5-1), Loss to St. Thomas (2-1)
3.) Macalester -Win to St. Mary's (3-0), win at Carleton (1-0)
4.) UWO - Loss at Platteville (3-2)
5.) CSS -  Win to UWS (3-1), win to Bethany Lutheran (2-0), tie to Carleton.


Wartburg- Win vs. Buena Vista (9-0), win vs Central (3-0), loss at St. Olaf (1-0)
Luther- Win vs. Dubuque (3-0) and loss at Loras (5-1)
St. Thomas- Win at St. Olaf (2-1), win vs Loras (2-1)
Platteville- Win vs Edgewood (3-0), win vs Oshkosh (3-2)
UD - Loss at Luther (3-0) and Win to Buena Vista (4-0)
SJU - Win vs. GAC (1-0) and Loss at Concordia Moorehead (1-2)
Finlandia- Win vs Northland (1-0), Win vs Robert Morris (6-0), loss to Fontbonne (3-0)


I could only do top 5, because beyond that point I have absolutely no idea. St. Thomas has the best shot to crack the rankings because of their current hot streak. Then more than likely one of the remaining IIAC teams will also sneak in, that is up for debate.

[Homegrown Harry]

First Regional Ranking is out and no bones with what they have in the North except for Knox.
Weak schedule but great record.  I think one of the MIAC or IIAC schools with a lesser recorder but stronger SOS would be warranted.

[dontshootthegoose]

Yea I am really surprised by the Knox selection. Luther/CSS/MIAC teams would be a much better selection.

UWW with a huge win on the road at Dubuque, and UWO drops a 1-0 defeat at home to Luther.

UWW 14-2-  Key Wins- MSOE, Carthage, Loras, Dubuque, St. Olaf        Blemishes: On road to NP, at home in overtime to a good Concordia Wisconsin Team (13-2-1)      SOS: 577

UWO 10-3-2-  Key Wins- MSOE, North Park, CSS           Blemishes: loss at home to Loras, Loss at Platteville, loss at home to Luther.  Tie at Wheaton, tie at Williamette      SOS: 549

Think it's safe to say that UWW  has taken the Pool B bid, regardless of their match with Oshkosh this Saturday.