2015 Mid Atlantic Region

[Mr.Right]

I will be following that Lycoming v Rochester game closely. Lycoming has jumped off to another fast start this year but seem to have a bit more challenging schedule before league play. U of R has started 2-2-1 but have played a solid schedule to go along with their usual UAA nemesis's. U of R does need to start winning a couple of these games as they will finish with an above .600 SOS but might not have a favorable Record v Ranked.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Yes I noticed that too. Looks like they (Lycoming) have added York again (not sure why they dropped each other for one year), Scranton, SUNY Oneonta, and Eastern. All better teams than the ones they have replaced from last season.

I believe Lycoming and Rochester have split the past 2 years. Both winning at home. Lycoming prevailing last season 2-1 in OT. Very even game from what I remember and a PK save was made by the Lycoming keeper. Will have to check the box score on the stats though.

Two years ago Rochester won 2-0. Pretty dominating performance from what I recollect. Once again I would have to check the box score for stats. Think it was 1-0 Rochester until very late when Lycoming was pushing for a goal and gave one up in the last 10 minutes on a counter. Very good Rochester team that year.

Should be a fun game to keep an eye on! I am looking forward to how Eastern and Drew shape up with 2 tough games coming for both.

[Mr.Right]

I think Lycoming realized they needed to amp up that out of conference schedule after going 15-3-3 and not getting a sniff for the NCAA's. I would still like to see one more solid game to go along with Eastern, Scranton, York and Rochester. Again, why not play Oneonta St? I know its about 3 hours but well worth the travel..Why not combine the Rochester trip with a Hobart or Geneseo. Just some ideas..

Off topic:  I would like to vote The University of Rochester as the biggest CONUNDRUM in D3 Soccer the past 10 years..Any other nominations?

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

They do play Oneonta St in late October in the middle of their conference schedule this year. I'm guessing to gear up for playoffs in anticipation of facing Messiah.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Messiah and Gettysburg 0-0 halfway through the first half.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Messiah and Gettysburg 0-0 at half.

F&M up 2-0 on Etown at the half.

Lycoming beats Juniata 6-0.

Muhlenberg and Drew at 0-0 halfway through the first half of their game.

Eastern beats Swat 1-0 with 45 seconds left in the game. They keep finding a way to sneak by.

York vs Hopkins 0-0 at half.

[Mr.Right]

They do play Oneonta St in late October in the middle of their conference schedule this year. I'm guessing to gear up for playoffs in anticipation of facing Messiah.

Yes you are correct I missed that. So the out of conference is pretty good but would still  look for one more quality game

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

No worries Mr. Right. And Messiah and Gettysburg headed to OT. F&M beats Etown 4-2. Muhlenberg and Drew still notched at 0 30 minutes to play.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

I watched the Messiah game last night. First half was pretty even. Started out chippy with Gettysburg getting 2 cards early. Messiah had the better of the possession I would say 60/40. Even on shots (4-3 in favor of the falcons) and Gettysburg defended well. Second half and OT was a different story. I think Gettysburg got 1 shot off in the final 65 minutes of play and it came in OT. Messiah ended up out-shooting them 18-4 for the game. Corners were 8-1 for the falcons. Completely dominated the bullets. Gettysburg keeper had a couple scares when trying to smother the ball. Could have been the surface as players were slipping left and right. Messiah had opportunities and couldn't finish. One that comes to mind was a ball played back across from the end-line to the PK spot and the kid blew it over the bar. Anywhere on frame or a pass to the corner and it probably ends the game. Lack of focus and that's not something we are used to seeing from Messiah teams. Sloppy out of the back on occasion as well.

Overall Messiah will be just fine. They are trying to rebuild after losing arguably the greatest recruiting class ever in D3 soccer. It will take time. They are 3-1-1 with 4 shutouts. That's a fantastic start for anybody else. They will start to click. I was skeptical after watching the CMU game. The goalie was awful and they didn't defend well at all. Since then they have cleaned it up. Last night was a game they should have won 2-0 based off the chances they created. One of those games plus Gettysburg deserves credit. That's a good squad to have a showing like that on the road. 

[Flying Weasel]

I watched the Messiah game last night. First half was pretty even. Started out chippy with Gettysburg getting 2 cards early. Messiah had the better of the possession I would say 60/40. Even on shots (4-3 in favor of the falcons) and Gettysburg defended well. Second half and OT was a different story. I think Gettysburg got 1 shot off in the final 65 minutes of play and it came in OT. Messiah ended up out-shooting them 18-4 for the game. Corners were 8-1 for the falcons. Completely dominated the bullets. Gettysburg keeper had a couple scares when trying to smother the ball. Could have been the surface as players were slipping left and right. Messiah had opportunities and couldn't finish. One that comes to mind was a ball played back across from the end-line to the PK spot and the kid blew it over the bar. Anywhere on frame or a pass to the corner and it probably ends the game. Lack of focus and that's not something we are used to seeing from Messiah teams. Sloppy out of the back on occasion as well.

Overall Messiah will be just fine. They are trying to rebuild after losing arguably the greatest recruiting class ever in D3 soccer. It will take time. They are 3-1-1 with 4 shutouts. That's a fantastic start for anybody else. They will start to click. I was skeptical after watching the CMU game. The goalie was awful and they didn't defend well at all. Since then they have cleaned it up. Last night was a game they should have won 2-0 based off the chances they created. One of those games plus Gettysburg deserves credit. That's a good squad to have a showing like that on the road. 

Pretty good review of the game.  On the balance of play, a 2-0 win for the Falcons would have seemed fair and reasonable.  Finishing (or the lack of it) cost them, plain and simple.  Gettysburg did well with their ball pressure and good marking making it more difficult for the Falcons, but Messiah still managed enough quality chances to expect to score and win the game.  They will need to do better in that department, for sure.  If they can improve the finishing and get more effective center forward play, they could be very, very good come November.  Goalkeeping has been much better since the shaky opening weekend, but probably the other big question mark.  After that I wonder how the centerbacks will do against a team with fast, top level forwards.  Will be interesting to see the season play out and see how things develop.

[Mr.Right]

This is all well and true but Messiah will not have a top echelon SOS. Their schedule is fairly weak this year compared to the last few. My guess is they will have a SOS of around .565-.570. What will their record be vs ranked opponents? I believe in the end Carnegie Mellon , Lycoming, Misericordia and York will be ranked. Rowan and Gettysburg possibly but not a definite. If Messiah does not win its league tournament they might be sweating a NCAA bid out if they cannot get results against York, Lycoming and Misericordia.

[Flying Weasel]

You're right. And that's why I said in the National thread that Messiah's margin for error is as narrow as its been in a very long time due to their SOS being lower than normal.  But it should still be equal or higher than Salisbury's was last year and the Gulls got in with a 12-2-5 record (7 blemishes) and no wins vs. ranked teams (3 ties).  Can't count on getting in with that resume, of course, but just illustrating that it's not clear yet just how narrow their margin of error is. 

Shame their schedule dropped off like this.  York's fall-off couldn't have been predicted and planned for.  Losing Catholic isn't an issue if they are replaced with another regionally ranked opponent.  Losing Dickinson is a head-scratcher, and maybe it's a one-year scheduling conflict and they'll be back on the slate next year, but that's hurt the SOS.  And a shame that Montclair S. wasn't retained or replaced with another high profile team.  And, BTW, I have no expectations of York being ranked.  Already have two losses so no signs yet that we should expect a dramatic turn-around after they missed out on the 6-team CAC playoffs last year and nowhere near beig ranked regionally. It would help Messiah if they were, but not counting on that. 

Messiah should be sweating it if they can't get results against York, Lycoming, and Misericordia.  But until they drop those games, it's too early to put them on the at-large bubble.  Playing the way they are right now, a couple more blemishes would seem likely, but they won't be static.  Players and coaching staff will be dedicated to improvements, so we need to see how this re-built side develops and how quickly.

[Mr.Right]

You are correct as I was just re-checking the schedules. We certainly do not know if York will even be ranked as they have a daunting schedule coming up. Also, Misericordia has a couple challenging non-conference games coming up and if they slip up in conference that will spell trouble. Rowan is 5-1-0 but have beaten cupcakes and lost to SLU 4-0. I had no heard any info from the SLU guys about that Rowan v SLU game which would be helpful for us to gauge Rowan. I am guessing they are a bit better than a 4-0 loss to SLU but how much better is unknown

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Alvernia coming from behind on the road to upend Dickinson 2-1. Trailed 1-0 at the half too.

[Mr.Right]

It seems some of the Centennial teams this year that are usually on the NCAA bubble are losing or drawing games they would need come November. I am noticing Dickinson, Muhlenberg and Swarthmore struggling to start the year before conference play starts. Gettysburg just had a great draw against Messiah, Washington College has played more cupcakes than tough games, Hopkins has played an excellent Out of Conference schedule and that win over Brockport State( who also has played a brutal schedule) might be a big factor come November. F&M's schedule to me is not that impressive but they also have gotten off to a fast start