2015 Mid Atlantic Region

[Mr.Right]

With Haverford having the strongest schedule in the country they would have to basically collapse to not get into the NCAA's at this point. Their SOS, OWP and OOWP have to be VERY HIGH.

[igotthisfeeling]

Have to disagree with your list to a degree. I think each of the top teams have played tough schedules - however I think based on results Etown has done just as well if not better then some of the other teams. They have only trailed to F&M this season *if memory serves me right* and have scored 2+ goals in every game but 2 (1-0 win over Messiah and 0-0 with Alvernia and only given up 10 goals all year *4 of which were against F&M* 
My list would be :
1. F&M - although they are getting closer and closer to dropping a game with their results lately--another close one against DeSales yesterday
2. Eastern - agree with this one - will be interesting to see how they handle conference games down the stretch - should do well
3. Etown - good wins against Messiah and Dickinson and yea a loss to F&M but did not perform on the day. If they would meet again, I can see scoreline being different - in my opinion.
4. Lycoming - good results but some tough tests coming up to finish up the regular season. Messiah game is the big one for them.
5. Haverford - Some good results but only 4-2 against the tough opponents you mentioned and 2 tough games to finish with too.
6. Messiah - good team - but not clicking this year to get all the results. Expect them to make a good run in conference play and make NCAA's but will be done early this year.
7. Dickinson
8. JHU
9. Drew
10. Alvernia - could be the team to throw a wrench into the Commonwealth Conference and upset Lyco or Messiah in the playoffs.
11. Gettysburg
12. Kings - can see them taking Eastern down
13. Cabrini
14. Merchant Marine - bad tie yesterday against Moravian

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Can't disagree with your assessment IGTF and thanks for your input. I feel that Etown has played tough teams, but the other games are against cupcakes and I mean cupcakes. As to where the other schools mentioned at least played average to good teams...not hard but at least they weren't cupcakes. Not trying to take away from Etown as they are an excellent squad this year, but I think they might be a bit over hyped still.

As for F&M I agree that they have been sliding by as of late. I watched them yesterday and posted how I am not impressed with them being #1. Are they a quality team...of course. But are they #1 quality...no where near it.

And I love the stats you have provided to back that up, but a lot of teams have similar or better stats than Etown in that regard, and teams that had incredibly good stats last year still didn't make it to the dance. The committee doesn't care unfortunately.   

[igotthisfeeling]

Yea unfortunately Etown's opponents are having a down year (for some teams) which is making their schedule look weaker then say it would be in other years. But good part for them is they are beating the teams they are supposed to beat based on those schedules. And then with the tough games they are doing well so far - just the one loss against F&M.

And yea stats are just that - stats. Only thing that matters is what goes on between the white lines for 90 minutes...can teams maintain where they are or will other teams make a run at things?! Will find out who the true contenders are in the next few weeks!

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

2 examples from last year (and I will be bias w/my Eagles and then Lycoming from the other side of the MAC):

Eastern:
15-4 overall record
6-1 conference record
L @ #25 Camden 3-1 (Stats were pretty even)
L Albright 2-1 (Bad loss)
L Desales 2-1 OT (Everybody slips up once in conf.)
L Kings 2-1 2OT (Conf. Final)

Not a good enough resume to get them in without the AQ because they only played 1 ranked team all year and lost 3-1. Even if they win that game they still don't get in.

Lycoming:
15-3-3 overall
6-2 conference
L @#3 Messiah 3-0 and 4-0(conf final)
L @Albright 1-0 (Bad Loss/Conf. slip up)
T @Kings(Freedom Champs)
W #13 Rochester 2-1 OT (Good win)
13 shut-outs and was last team to give up a goal in the country.

Still didn't matter because they only played 3 good teams (Messiah 2x, Kings, and UR) Not a bad resume but wasn't good enough.

My point being is that both teams had fantastic seasons a year ago and couldn't get it done in their conference playoffs. One blemish (Albright) killed any chance for both of them. If you look at the schedules this year, they both picked up more quality teams and dropped the cupcakes. If Etown slips up in conference tournament and say they end up around 14-2-2 win their first round game 15-2-2 and then lose somehow in the final and go 15-3-2...do they get in over a Haverford who plays so many tough teams or a Lycoming team who has a tougher schedule or an Eastern team ranked in the top 10 in some polls who have an equally tough schedule or Messiah who is "Messiah" and has a tough schedule (Etown w/ Head to Head win).

Everything is so close this year and most years. One game can turn a season upside down. But I anticipate Etown winning the Landmark and not having to worry about any of that  It really comes down to the loser of Lycoming/Messiah and Centennial schools battling for the at-larges from this region.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Yea unfortunately Etown's opponents are having a down year (for some teams) which is making their schedule look weaker then say it would be in other years. But good part for them is they are beating the teams they are supposed to beat based on those schedules. And then with the tough games they are doing well so far - just the one loss against F&M.

And yea stats are just that - stats. Only thing that matters is what goes on between the white lines for 90 minutes...can teams maintain where they are or will other teams make a run at things?! Will find out who the true contenders are in the next few weeks!

Yep conference play will be all telling for most of these teams. Agree 100% with you!

[lastguyoffthebench]

Haverford OWP with the multiplier 0.85 for home games and 1.25 for away games.

6   3   1   0.553   Scranton
8   1   2   1.023   @ Stevens Tech
0   10   1   0.056   @ Rosemont
6   2   1   0.614   Wesleyan
12   1   0   1.154   @ MSU
6   3   2   0.795   @ JHU
10   3   0   0.654   Stockton
2   7   2   0.232   McDaniel
5   5   0   0.625   @ Washington
7   2   1   0.938   @ Gettysburg
8   3   1   0.885   @ Rutgers-Camden

Current OWP is an insane .684 with even playing 0-10-1 Rosemont
----------------------------------------------------------------------
7   2   2   0.618   Dickinson
4   6   1   0.348   Catholic
3   5   1   0.331   Muhlenberg
11   0   0   0.850   F&M
1   6   3   0.313   Ursinus
4   7   1   0.319   Swarthmore

Drops to a still impressive .606 before factoring in conference playoffs which would feature games vs the likes of Dickinson, JHU, and F&M.

Impossible to determine the SOS due to OOWP calculations.  I'd have to do a pivot table and enter every single score this year...   Did the South Atlantic region, but it is inaccurate due to unrecorded scores of teams from different regions.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Thanks for providing that! Any way you could calculate that out for Messiah, Etown, Lyco, and Eastern by chance? Don't mean to be a pest but that's a great statistical viewpoint for people. Great information!

[Mr.Right]

I wouldn't worry about it....I would guess all 4 of those teams are not even close to Haverford. The better question would be if Haverford dropped 2 or 3 more games even with 6 losses it would be VERY HARD to keep them out.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

I don't think they are close either but it's more to compare those 4 to each other if they are battling for bids with the exception of Haverford. And if they have 6 losses I don't think they get in. IMO.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

14-6 (assuming no ties). I guess it would depend who those other 3 losses came to. If they get in with 6 losses and F&M wins the conference I think those are the only teams that get in from that conference. That's a better way to look at it maybe? It's a tough call because they do play a brutal schedule, but 6 losses is a lot compared to other good teams who will end up with 2 or 3.

[lastguyoffthebench]

I need FWeezy to verify that I'm calculating these correctly.    When I did Eastern they were around the .545 OWP.  E-town and F&M were floating around the .500 range.

F&M
at LVC   4   7   0   0.455
Arcadia    7   3   2   0.567
Alvernia   5   2   5   0.531
Houghton   5   4   2   0.464
Randolph   5   3   2   0.510
Etown   9   1   1   0.734
Swat   4   6   1   0.348
at Steven   3   7   1   0.398
At Wash   5   5   0   0.625
Ursinus   1   6   3   0.213
Mules   3   5   1   0.486
DSU   4   6   0   0.500

F&M at .486 now, but will increase significantly (.545) with 3 road games and Dickinson.
-----------------------------------------------------

McDaniel   2   7   2   0.232
at JHU   6   3   2   0.795
at Hav   7   3   0   0.875
at Gburg   7   2   1   0.938
Dickinson   6   2   2   0.595

Keep in mind this is ONLY OWP, which accounts for 2/3 of the SOS; the other 1/3 being OOWP.

[Flying Weasel]

Typically, 5 losses seems to be the cut-off, but . . .

In 2013 Williams got in at 11-6-0.  Their record vs. ranked teams was an incredible 6-3-0 and their SOS entering the final week was .592.

In 2012 Emory got in at 10-6-2.  Their record vs. ranked teams was 3-3-1 and their SOS entering the final week was .597.

If Haverford was at 13-6-0 (a higher win pct. than either those above examples), they'd probably have a decent shot if they have 2 or 3 wins versus ranked teams.

[lastguyoffthebench]

Eastern OWP  =.532
9   1   1   1.080  @Lyco
5   2   5   0.625  Alvernia
7   3   2   0.667  Arcadia
2   5   2   0.417  @Marywood
2   6   1   0.347  @Neumann
4   7   1   0.319  Swarthmore
4   5   0   0.680  Centenary
6   3   0   0.833  @Salisbury
1   9   1   0.170  @Albright
0   10   1   0.039  Rosemont
6   5   1   0.677  @Manhattanville

[lastguyoffthebench]

E-town OWP   =0.502         
2   5   2   0.283   PSU-Harrisburg
7   2   2   0.618   Dickinson
4   7   0   0.309   DSU
3   8   0   0.341   at Wilkes
3   8   0   0.341   at GMC
11   0   0   1.250   at F&M
4   6   1   0.348   Catholic
5   2   5   0.781   at Alvernia
2   8   1   0.284   at Juniata
7   3   1   0.580   Messiah
5   5   1   0.425   Moravian
5   4   2   0.464   Susqu