2015 Mid Atlantic Region

[Christan Shirk]

Repeating my post from over on the New England thread (seemed appropriate here as well given the talk about SOS and OWP).



Just a word of caution and clarification.  Obviously it's next to impossible to do the full SOS calculation on your own.  So, yes, just considering the OWP gives you a ball park feel that's pretty useful.  But (and I'm stealing my own thunder for an article I'm preparing for the website) there's a few other wrinkles in the calculations that effect the OWP that I don't believe anyone is accounting for (and maybe not remembering or even aware of).

So, it's not even "as simple" as just SOS = 2/3 OWP + 1/3 OOWP.

(1) A team's result against each opponent is removed from each opponents W-L-T record before computing their winning percentage.  Now this is relatively minor, so again, for ease and simplicity can be neglected.  (The same thing is done for computing each opponent's opponents' winning percentage, the OOWP).

(2) There are multipliers for home and away games that factor each opponent's winning pct. up (away game) or down (home game).  (The same thing is done for computing each OOWP).  And these factors are not insignificant.

          Factored OWP = opponent's winning pct. x SOS multiplier

          Multipliers:
          0.85 for home games (or -15%)
          1.25 for away games (or +25%)

So there's a 40% value difference between home and away games.  That means that playing a team a little over .500 away is as helpful to your SOS as playing a team a little under .800 at home as can be illustrated as follows:

          Away game: .543 win pct.  x  1.25 home/away multiplier  =  .677 factored OWP

          Home game: .792 win pct.  x  0.85 home/away multiplier  =  .673 factored OWP

Interesting, isn't it?  Two teams with a difference in winning percentages of .249 contribute the same to a team's SOS if the better team is played at home and the lesser team is played on the road.  What does everyone think about that?  The multipliers are pretty drastic, aren't they?  And it can really affect a team's SOS if in a given year by happenstance they host most of the top teams in their conference versus playing them away, or vice versa.

So, I do not want to discourage the simple method of collecting the straight OWP (without removing the head-to-head result and without applying the home/away multiplier), but everyone should be aware that these components of the calculations can make the actual numbers somewhat different that the quick and dirty ones being thrown out there.  How much different will vary of course.  And there's usually going to be some balancing out within each team's calculations.  But it certainly could change who has a better SOS among a group of teams. 

So things to keep in mind.  Maybe the home/away multipliers could be accounted for in the OWP calculations to be a little more accurate without getting too burdemsome.  And I hope you'll all still read my upcoming article on D3soccer.com even though I just gave a good chuck of it away! 

[lastguyoffthebench]

Yes,

All the calculations posted today have the multiplier.

This would probably work if every score was plugged in... http://www.techgraphs.com/an-rpi-spreadsheet-for-you-yes-you/

I calculated the SOS and will not release them until after the NCAA releases the regional rankings.  Mainly because the calculation does not factor in Draws.  It took me about 2 hours to plug in all the South Atlantic scores, so if the numbers are close in proximity to the NCAAs, then I'll post just for reference and then enter the rest of the regions for the 2nd Regional Ranking.

[Flying Weasel]

That's awesome that you have the multipliers factored in, LGOTB!  It's not much harder to include them (as opposed to trying to do all the OOWP's)!

[backyarddawg]

Big games today in Mid-Atlantic

McDaniel @ F&M

Misericordia @ Eastern

Dickinson @ Haverford

Drew @ Catholic

Etown @ Merchant Marines

Scranton @ Goucher (Scranton 6-1-1 in last 8)

Gettysburg @ Swat (Getty coming off 0-2 week)

Lycoming @ Arcadia

W&L @ Messiah (Messiah cannot afford another loss)

Manhattanville @ King's


Who's everyone got?

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

McDaniel @ F&M
F&M 4-1

Misericordia @ Eastern
Eastern 2-1

Dickinson @ Haverford
Tie 2-2

Drew @ Catholic
Catholic 2-1

Etown @ Merchant Marines
Etown 2-0

Scranton @ Goucher (Scranton 6-1-1 in last 8)
Scranton 2-1 OT

Gettysburg @ Swat (Getty coming off 0-2 week)
Gettysburg 1-0

Lycoming @ Arcadia
Lycoming 2-1

W&L @ Messiah (Messiah cannot afford another loss)
Messiah 3-0

Manhattanville @ King's
Manhattanville 4-2

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Massey Ratings as of 10/09/15:

4. F&M
6. Haverford
11. Eastern
16. Etown
18. Lycoming
25. Messiah
--------------------
45. Dickinson
47. Gettsyburg
55. John Hopkins
--------------------
81. Drew
83. Scranton
84. Alvernia
90. Merchant Marine
91. Kings
94. Cabrini

[D3soccerwatcher]

McDaniel @ F&M
F&M 4-1

Misericordia @ Eastern
Eastern 4-1

Dickinson @ Haverford
Hverford 2-1

Drew @ Catholic
Catholic 2-1

Etown @ Merchant Marines
Etown 3-1

Scranton @ Goucher
Scranton 2-0

Gettysburg @ Swat (Getty coming off 0-2 week)
Tie 1-1

Lycoming @ Arcadia
Lycoming 2-1

W&L @ Messiah
Messiah 4-1

Manhattanville @ King's
Manhattanville 4-1

[lastguyoffthebench]

I agree 100% with Massey ratings and I do think the Fords knock off F&M


NCAA Regional Projections

1 F&M
2 Haverford
3 Eastern
4 E-town
5 Lycoming
6 Messiah
7 JHU
7 Dickinson

[backyarddawg]

Any surprises in Mid-Atlantic?

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Results from this past weekend:

McDaniel @ F&M
F&M 5-0

Misericordia @ Eastern
Eastern 2-0

Dickinson @ Haverford
Hverford 3-1

Drew @ Catholic
Drew 2-1

Etown @ Merchant Marines
Etown 1-0

Scranton @ Goucher
Goucher 1-0

Gettysburg @ Swat
Swat 2-1

Lycoming @ Arcadia
Tied 1-1 2OT

W&L @ Messiah
Messiah 1-0 OT

Manhattanville @ King's
Tied 1-1 2OT

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

I agree 100% with Massey ratings and I do think the Fords knock off F&M


NCAA Regional Projections

1 F&M
2 Haverford
3 Eastern
4 E-town
5 Lycoming
6 Messiah
7 JHU
7 Dickinson

My only change to this would flip Haverford and Eastern. Spot on!

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

NSCAA Mid-Atlantic Regional Poll for October 13th:

Rank   School   Prev.   W-L-T
1   Franklin & Marshall College
DA DeSales University 1-0; DH McDaniel College 5-0;   1   12-0-0
2   Eastern University
DH Misericordia University 2-0;   2   11-0-1
3   Elizabethtown College
DH Susquehanna University 3-1; DA United States Merchant Marine Academy 1-0;   3   11-1-1
4   Lycoming College
DA Stevenson University 5-0; TA Arcadia University 1-1;   4   9-1-2
5   Haverford College
DA Rutgers University-Camden 3-0; DH Dickinson College 3-1;   9   9-3-0
6   Cabrini College
DA Berkeley College 2-1; DA Summit University 2-1;   6   8-1-2
7   Messiah College
DH Lebanon Valley College 4-2; DH Washington & Lee University 1-0;   8   8-3-1
8   Drew University
LH University Of Scranton 1-2; DA Catholic University 2-1;   5   9-2-2
9   Dickinson College
DA Misericordia University 3-1; LA Haverford College 1-3;   7   7-3-2
10   Johns Hopkins University
DH Ursinus College 3-2;   NR   7-3-2


http://www.nscaa.com/rankings/4638

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

So to clean that up a bit...

Rank   School                             W-L-T
1   Franklin & Marshall College     12-0-0
2   Eastern University                  11-0-1
3   Elizabethtown College            11-1-1
4   Lycoming College                   9-1-2
5   Haverford College                   9-3-0
6   Cabrini College                       8-1-2
7   Messiah College                     8-3-1
8   Drew University                      9-2-2
9   Dickinson College                  7-3-2
10   Johns Hopkins University     7-3-2

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Games of the Week:

10/13/15
Gettysburg @ Susquehanna      Both teams desperate for a win...especially Gettysburg.

Other Notable Games:
Catholic @ Haverford   Can the Fords keep it going? I think so.

10/14/15
Messiah @ Lycoming    MACC championship rematch. Probably the GOW for the entire country. MSU vs Kean being the other nationally recognized GOW.

Other Notable Games:
Kings @ FDU    Two top 4 teams in MACF clash. Playoff implications/seeding on the line already.
Arcadia @ Leb Val    LVC has surged back into contention after a horrible non-conference start and Arcadia coming off a big tie vs Lycoming. 
Merchant Marine @ Stevens    Would be a nice rebound game for MM but still think it's too little too late for them.
Scranton @ Dickinson    Would be a nice win for either side.
Neumann @ Cabrini    In the CSAC can a struggling Neumann upend surging Cabrini? I doubt it but we will see.

[lastguyoffthebench]

In 2013, Messiah outshot Lycoming something like 30-2.   Will Lycoming sit back and counter or do they throw the kitchen sink at the Falcons now that the talent seems to be leveled?

If Messiah doesn't come away with the 3 pts, it will be like they are running a 5k with a 50lb backpack.