2015 Mid Atlantic Region

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

What if they tie Oneonta St.?

Maalox Maxer on selection Sunday / Monday-------------Translation=Bubble

There will be plenty of bubble teams this year 

[Flying Weasel]

Lycoming OWP is .557 currently with it increasing to .560 over the remaining games on the schedule

Eastern OWP is .503 currently with it decreasing to .494 over the remaining games on the schedule.  They would need to win the AQ or hope atleast that King's makes it to the Final, because the other teams with near .500 records would not help their case if they were to lose in the final then.

Factor in say semi vs FDU and Final vs Kings = OWP .512 - the mysterious OOWP
Factor in semi vs FDU and Final vs Manhattanville = OWP .497 - the mysterious OOWP.

Assuming your numbers are correct for the OWP, it will be very interesting to see if Eastern's SOS is over or under .500 for the first regional rankings once the OOWP is factored in.  And if it is under .500, it will be very, vey interesting to see if they are ranked at all.  Last year, Luther mysteriously dropped from #2 to unranked when their SOS dropped below .500 between the first and second rankings.

[Mr.Right]

Lycoming OWP is .557 currently with it increasing to .560 over the remaining games on the schedule

Eastern OWP is .503 currently with it decreasing to .494 over the remaining games on the schedule.  They would need to win the AQ or hope atleast that King's makes it to the Final, because the other teams with near .500 records would not help their case if they were to lose in the final then.

Factor in say semi vs FDU and Final vs Kings = OWP .512 - the mysterious OOWP
Factor in semi vs FDU and Final vs Manhattanville = OWP .497 - the mysterious OOWP.

So Mr. Right how would they not get in with that kind of SOS, 15+ wins (potentially), and a winning pct above .845? Only loss at the moment to a top 10 Eastern team. TONS of soccer left to be played but if it ended today all 3 of the above are in IMO.

.560 SOS is just above the bubble so I would imagine they would look at Record v Ranked with comparing similar SOS bubble teams. Lycoming just does not have the Record v Ranked...The only team ranked will be Oneonta St...U of Rochester as it stands now will not be ranked

[lastguyoffthebench]

F&M currently sitting at .468 OWP - ? OOWP

Factor in the remaining road games of; JHU, Muhlenberg, Gettysburg, Haverford.  Home game vs Dickinson their OWP then bumps up to .556

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

On that data sheet that they produce with everybody from the region, is that just a final overall data sheet or will that be released and updated in the final weeks of the season as the NCAA regional rankings keep getting released?

[Flying Weasel]

Lycoming OWP is .557 currently with it increasing to .560 over the remaining games on the schedule

Eastern OWP is .503 currently with it decreasing to .494 over the remaining games on the schedule.  They would need to win the AQ or hope atleast that King's makes it to the Final, because the other teams with near .500 records would not help their case if they were to lose in the final then.

Factor in say semi vs FDU and Final vs Kings = OWP .512 - the mysterious OOWP
Factor in semi vs FDU and Final vs Manhattanville = OWP .497 - the mysterious OOWP.

So Mr. Right how would they not get in with that kind of SOS, 15+ wins (potentially), and a winning pct above .845? Only loss at the moment to a top 10 Eastern team. TONS of soccer left to be played but if it ended today all 3 of the above are in IMO.

.560 SOS is just above the bubble so I would imagine they would look at Record v Ranked with comparing similar SOS bubble teams. Lycoming just does not have the Record v Ranked...The only team ranked will be Oneonta St...U of Rochester as it stands now will not be ranked

Yeah, but a number of teams got in last year without high SOS and without more than 1 win versus ranked teams.  Looking at the 2014 Pool C selections:

Amherst: 13-1-4 / .587 SOS / 0-1-2 vs. Ranked
Brandeis: 17-2-0 / .633 SOS / 7-2-0 vs. Ranked
Brockport State: 10-3-6 / .568 SOS / 1-3-2  vs. Ranked
Coast Guard: 13-2-3 / .580 SOS / 2-1-1 vs. Ranked
Cortland State: 14-4-1 / .547 SOS / 3-2-1 vs. Ranked
Dickinson: 11-5-2 / .604 SOS / 3-3-1 vs. Ranked
Dominican: 14-5-2 / .545 SOS / 1-3-0 vs. Ranked
Emory: 13-3-2 / .603 SOS / 5-2-2 vs. Ranked
Franklin & Marshall: 15-1-2 / .573 SOS / 3-1-1 vs. Ranked
Loras: 15-2-2 / .575 SOS / 5-0-2 vs. Ranked
North Park: 12-5-1 / .597 SOS / 2-4-0 vs. Ranked
Ohio Wesleyan: 15-4-2 / .556 SOS / 4-2-2 vs. Ranked
Rochester: 9-5-3 / .627 SOS / 4-3-1 vs. Ranked
Rutgers-Newark: 15-5-0 / .557 SOS / 2-2-0 vs. Ranked
Salisbury: 11-2-5 / .556 SOS / 0-1-3 vs. Ranked
Texas-Dallas: 13-4-3 / .516 SOS / 1-0-0 vs. Ranked
Tufts: 10-2-4 / .576 SOS / 1-1-2 vs. Ranked
Wheaton (Mass.): 16-3-2 / .597 2-2-2 vs. Ranked
(Note: SOS value do not incluide final week beofre selections)

I've highlighted the teams with an SOS below .570, similar to what Lycoming will have if LGOTB's numbers are accurate.  Some of those resumes aren't just that great.  Ohio Wesleyan, Cortland St., and Rutgers-Newark had 4, 3, and 2 wins, respectively, versus ranked teams, but the others had little to hang their hats on.  Texas-Dallas smelled of a geographical-based, not merit-based, selection.  Dominican?  Highly questionable selection.  Salisbury?  They had the highest win pct. of the "bubble" teams at .750 so that might explain their selection. 

Given this topsy-turvy season, I'm not sure the Pool C resumes will be any better this year, and look at the teams that got selected last year.  If Lycoming wins all remainging games except for losses to Oneonta and in the conference final,  that would put them at 15-3-2 (.800) with a 0-2-0 record vs. ranked teams (assuming Eastern is ranked).  Compare that to Salisbury last year. A higher win pct., equal SOS, and a simialr lack of wins vs. ranked (but Salisbury had 3 ties).  And it is superior to Dominican and Texas-Dallas except for the their lone wins vs. ranked teams.  And a tie with Oneonta St. would improve Lyco's resume some.  Clearly a bubble team, but as long as the Pool C resumes are not stronger than last year, they could be on the right side of that bubble, getting in before it bursts.

[Flying Weasel]

On that data sheet that they produce with everybody from the region, is that just a final overall data sheet or will that be released and updated in the final weeks of the season as the NCAA regional rankings keep getting released?

With each of the three published weekly regional rankings, they also publish the regional data sheets that were referenced/used in ranking the teams that week.  Then, just as we never get to see the final unpublished rankings that immediately proceed and directly impact the at-large selections, we do not get to see the final data sheets.  So we are left not knowing the exact final SOS values, but one week (2 games) won't move a team's SOS much from the previous week.  We'll know each teams record and winning pct. and we can determine the new record vs. ranked teams, because that is based on who was ranked in the third published rankings.

[Mr.Right]

Lycoming OWP is .557 currently with it increasing to .560 over the remaining games on the schedule

Eastern OWP is .503 currently with it decreasing to .494 over the remaining games on the schedule.  They would need to win the AQ or hope atleast that King's makes it to the Final, because the other teams with near .500 records would not help their case if they were to lose in the final then.

Factor in say semi vs FDU and Final vs Kings = OWP .512 - the mysterious OOWP
Factor in semi vs FDU and Final vs Manhattanville = OWP .497 - the mysterious OOWP.

So Mr. Right how would they not get in with that kind of SOS, 15+ wins (potentially), and a winning pct above .845? Only loss at the moment to a top 10 Eastern team. TONS of soccer left to be played but if it ended today all 3 of the above are in IMO.

.560 SOS is just above the bubble so I would imagine they would look at Record v Ranked with comparing similar SOS bubble teams. Lycoming just does not have the Record v Ranked...The only team ranked will be Oneonta St...U of Rochester as it stands now will not be ranked

Yeah, but a number of teams got in last year without high SOS and without more than 1 win versus ranked teams.  Looking at the 2014 Pool C selections:

Amherst: 13-1-4 / .587 SOS / 0-1-2 vs. Ranked
Brandeis: 17-2-0 / .633 SOS / 7-2-0 vs. Ranked
Brockport State: 10-3-6 / .568 SOS / 1-3-2  vs. Ranked
Coast Guard: 13-2-3 / .580 SOS / 2-1-1 vs. Ranked
Cortland State: 14-4-1 / .547 SOS / 3-2-1 vs. Ranked
Dickinson: 11-5-2 / .604 SOS / 3-3-1 vs. Ranked
Dominican: 14-5-2 / .545 SOS / 1-3-0 vs. Ranked
Emory: 13-3-2 / .603 SOS / 5-2-2 vs. Ranked
Franklin & Marshall: 15-1-2 / .573 SOS / 3-1-1 vs. Ranked
Loras: 15-2-2 / .575 SOS / 5-0-2 vs. Ranked
North Park: 12-5-1 / .597 SOS / 2-4-0 vs. Ranked
Ohio Wesleyan: 15-4-2 / .556 SOS / 4-2-2 vs. Ranked
Rochester: 9-5-3 / .627 SOS / 4-3-1 vs. Ranked
Rutgers-Newark: 15-5-0 / .557 SOS / 2-2-0 vs. Ranked
Salisbury: 11-2-5 / .556 SOS / 0-1-3 vs. Ranked
Texas-Dallas: 13-4-3 / .516 SOS / 1-0-0 vs. Ranked
Tufts: 10-2-4 / .576 SOS / 1-1-2 vs. Ranked
Wheaton (Mass.): 16-3-2 / .597 2-2-2 vs. Ranked
(Note: SOS value do not incluide final week beofre selections)

I've highlighted the teams with an SOS below .570, similar to what Lycoming will have if LGOTB's numbers are accurate.  Some of those resumes aren't just that great.  Ohio Wesleyan, Cortland St., and Rutgers-Newark had 4, 3, and 2 wins, respectively, versus ranked teams, but the others had little to hang their hats on.  Texas-Dallas smelled of a geographical-based, not merit-based, selection.  Dominican?  Highly questionable selection.  Salisbury?  They had the highest win pct. of the "bubble" teams at .750 so that might explain their selection. 

Given this topsy-turvy season, I'm not sure the Pool C resumes will be any better this year, and look at the teams that got selected last year.  If Lycoming wins all remainging games except for losses to Oneonta and in the conference final,  that would put them at 15-3-2 (.800) with a 0-2-0 record vs. ranked teams (assuming Eastern is ranked).  Compare that to Salisbury last year. A higher win pct., equal SOS, and a simialr lack of wins vs. ranked (but Salisbury had 3 ties).  And it is superior to Dominican and Texas-Dallas except for the their lone wins vs. ranked teams.  And a tie with Oneonta St. would improve Lyco's resume some.  Clearly a bubble team, but as long as the Pool C resumes are not stronger than last year, they could be on the right side of that bubble, getting in before it bursts.

I totally agree with you but 1 thing I did notice in all of the highlighted is all teams had at least 1 win or 1 draw against ranked...Lycoming would be 0-2-0 or 0-1-0..

[Flying Weasel]

I totally agree with you but 1 thing I did notice in all of the highlighted is all teams had at least 1 win or 1 draw against ranked...Lycoming would be 0-2-0 or 0-1-0..

Exactly, . . . and I should have stated that (and that's kind of what I was getting at with the parethetical that Salisbury had three ties vs. ranked teams).

It's a little harder to deduce how much ties versus ranked teams is valued by the committee.  I think we both are on the same wavelength in understanding that the committee loves high SOS and wins vs. ranked teams.  Got to think they help some, but not as sure just how much ties help.  Are two ties worth the same as one win, for example?  What would the committee like better: 1-1-0 vs. ranked or 0-1-2?  What about 1-1-0 or 0-1-3?

But in Lycoming's case they don't have any ties unless Rochester would get themselves ranked by the end and Lyco could draw with Oneonta St.  And thus, a non-Commonwealth champion Lycoming will probably be a bubble team even in a best case scenario (i.e. beating Oneonta).

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

I don't think anybody anticipated Messiah not to be a ranked opponent as they would have most likely 2 games with them to add to the total which would put them at 1-1 right now and 1-1-1 if UR sneaks in. Geneva is also RV votes in their region so if they somehow go on a roll and sneak in to the regional rankings that's another win to add to it. All what ifs though.

If they beat Oneonta St. I think they are in no doubt as long as they have no other slip ups.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Lycoming OWP is .557 currently with it increasing to .560 over the remaining games on the schedule

Eastern OWP is .503 currently with it decreasing to .494 over the remaining games on the schedule.  They would need to win the AQ or hope atleast that King's makes it to the Final, because the other teams with near .500 records would not help their case if they were to lose in the final then.

Factor in say semi vs FDU and Final vs Kings = OWP .512 - the mysterious OOWP
Factor in semi vs FDU and Final vs Manhattanville = OWP .497 - the mysterious OOWP.

So Mr. Right how would they not get in with that kind of SOS, 15+ wins (potentially), and a winning pct above .845? Only loss at the moment to a top 10 Eastern team. TONS of soccer left to be played but if it ended today all 3 of the above are in IMO.

.560 SOS is just above the bubble so I would imagine they would look at Record v Ranked with comparing similar SOS bubble teams. Lycoming just does not have the Record v Ranked...The only team ranked will be Oneonta St...U of Rochester as it stands now will not be ranked

Yeah, but a number of teams got in last year without high SOS and without more than 1 win versus ranked teams.  Looking at the 2014 Pool C selections:

Amherst: 13-1-4 / .587 SOS / 0-1-2 vs. Ranked
Brandeis: 17-2-0 / .633 SOS / 7-2-0 vs. Ranked
Brockport State: 10-3-6 / .568 SOS / 1-3-2  vs. Ranked
Coast Guard: 13-2-3 / .580 SOS / 2-1-1 vs. Ranked
Cortland State: 14-4-1 / .547 SOS / 3-2-1 vs. Ranked
Dickinson: 11-5-2 / .604 SOS / 3-3-1 vs. Ranked
Dominican: 14-5-2 / .545 SOS / 1-3-0 vs. Ranked
Emory: 13-3-2 / .603 SOS / 5-2-2 vs. Ranked
Franklin & Marshall: 15-1-2 / .573 SOS / 3-1-1 vs. Ranked
Loras: 15-2-2 / .575 SOS / 5-0-2 vs. Ranked
North Park: 12-5-1 / .597 SOS / 2-4-0 vs. Ranked
Ohio Wesleyan: 15-4-2 / .556 SOS / 4-2-2 vs. Ranked
Rochester: 9-5-3 / .627 SOS / 4-3-1 vs. Ranked
Rutgers-Newark: 15-5-0 / .557 SOS / 2-2-0 vs. Ranked
Salisbury: 11-2-5 / .556 SOS / 0-1-3 vs. Ranked
Texas-Dallas: 13-4-3 / .516 SOS / 1-0-0 vs. Ranked
Tufts: 10-2-4 / .576 SOS / 1-1-2 vs. Ranked
Wheaton (Mass.): 16-3-2 / .597 2-2-2 vs. Ranked
(Note: SOS value do not incluide final week beofre selections)

I've highlighted the teams with an SOS below .570, similar to what Lycoming will have if LGOTB's numbers are accurate.  Some of those resumes aren't just that great.  Ohio Wesleyan, Cortland St., and Rutgers-Newark had 4, 3, and 2 wins, respectively, versus ranked teams, but the others had little to hang their hats on.  Texas-Dallas smelled of a geographical-based, not merit-based, selection.  Dominican?  Highly questionable selection.  Salisbury?  They had the highest win pct. of the "bubble" teams at .750 so that might explain their selection. 

Given this topsy-turvy season, I'm not sure the Pool C resumes will be any better this year, and look at the teams that got selected last year.  If Lycoming wins all remainging games except for losses to Oneonta and in the conference final,  that would put them at 15-3-2 (.800) with a 0-2-0 record vs. ranked teams (assuming Eastern is ranked).  Compare that to Salisbury last year. A higher win pct., equal SOS, and a simialr lack of wins vs. ranked (but Salisbury had 3 ties).  And it is superior to Dominican and Texas-Dallas except for the their lone wins vs. ranked teams.  And a tie with Oneonta St. would improve Lyco's resume some.  Clearly a bubble team, but as long as the Pool C resumes are not stronger than last year, they could be on the right side of that bubble, getting in before it bursts.

I totally agree with you but 1 thing I did notice in all of the highlighted is all teams had at least 1 win or 1 draw against ranked...Lycoming would be 0-2-0 or 0-1-0..

Also thanks for the great info FW. It's a great visual to look at as a benchmark for last year to this year. +K

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Massey Ratings as of 10/15/15:

Top 5
2. F&M------------12-0-0      SOS=73
5. Haverford------10-3-0       SOS=6
8. Eastern--------12-0-1       SOS=99
12. Etown--------12-1-1       SOS=81
15. Lycoming-----10-1-2      SOS=71
------------------------------------
Next 3
35. Messiah-------8-4-1       SOS=14
43. Dickinson-----8-3-2       SOS=32
47. Hopkins-------7-3-2       SOS=16
------------------------------------
Outside Looking In
49. Gettysburg----8-3-1       SOS=46
66. Drew----------10-2-2     SOS=125
83. King's---------10-2-1     SOS=197
86. Arcadia--------8-3-3       SOS=165

*Cabrini's record is not fully up to date but they are sitting in the 120's at 7-1-3 but their actual record is 9-1-3. I still don't think this would jump them past the top 80 though as Cabrini's SOS=211*

[backyarddawg]

What did the weekend tell us?

Massey Ratings as of 10/15/15:

Top 5
2. F&M------------12-0-0      SOS=73
5. Haverford------10-3-0       SOS=6
8. Eastern--------12-0-1       SOS=99
12. Etown--------12-1-1       SOS=81
15. Lycoming-----10-1-2      SOS=71
------------------------------------
Next 3
35. Messiah-------8-4-1       SOS=14
43. Dickinson-----8-3-2       SOS=32
47. Hopkins-------7-3-2       SOS=16
------------------------------------
Outside Looking In
49. Gettysburg----8-3-1       SOS=46
66. Drew----------10-2-2     SOS=125
83. King's---------10-2-1     SOS=197
86. Arcadia--------8-3-3       SOS=165

*Cabrini's record is not fully up to date but they are sitting in the 120's at 7-1-3 but their actual record is 9-1-3. I still don't think this would jump them past the top 80 though as Cabrini's SOS=211*

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

4/5 top 5 all win. Eastern tied. Messiah and Dickinson win and Hopkins lost to F&M. Gettysburg, Drew, and Arcadia all lose pretty much guaranteeing an AQ to get in the tournament.

[backyarddawg]

We are three days away from the all important first poll?

What's the mid-Atlantic look like after this weekends results?

1. F&M
2. Haverford (SOS is so much higher then all others and will grow more with showdown with F&M)
3. Etown
4. Eastern (beat Lycoming)
5. Lycoming (loss to Eastern)
6. Dickinson
7. Messiah
8. JHU
9. Kings
10. Drew

4/5 top 5 all win. Eastern tied. Messiah and Dickinson win and Hopkins lost to F&M. Gettysburg, Drew, and Arcadia all lose pretty much guaranteeing an AQ to get in the tournament.