2015 Mid Atlantic Region

[lastguyoffthebench]

Mid-Atlantic  In-Division Record  Overall Record
1. Franklin & Marshall  13-0-0  13-0-0
2. Lycoming  11-1-2  11-1-2
3. Elizabethtown  13-1-1  13-1-1
4. Haverford  11-3-0  11-3-0
5. Eastern   12-0-2  12-0-2
6. Dickinson  9-3-2  9-3-2
7. Messiah  9-4-1  9-4-1
8. Johns Hopkins  7-4-2  7-4-2

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NCAA Regional Ranking Predictions by MAF

1. F&M
2. Haverford
3. Etown
4. Lycoming
5. Eastern
6. Dickinson
7. Messiah
8. Cabrini/Hopkins

WELL DONE!
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NCAA Regional Ranking Predictions by LGOTB:

1. F&M
2. Haverford
3. Eastern (based on result over Lycoming, but never a guarantee)
4. Lycoming (draw vs Rochester not as strong)
5. E-town (tied Alvernia, as did Eastern).  Eastern win % a factor, bumping E-town
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6. Dickinson
7. Messiah
8. Kings*

1-5 fairly set.   Gets realllly thin in terms of 6-8 slots.    Expect JHU and Drew to also be in the mix. 
*Kings possibly not ranked until SOS improves and will need help...
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Surprised with Haverford and Eastern slot(s).

[Flying Weasel]

Eastern's SOS was .503 as per the data sheet which is more along the lines of what I thought I remembered you calculating.  And that certainly explains them being lower than in the NSCAA and D3soccer.com rankings.

[lastguyoffthebench]

Lycoming OWP is .557 currently with it increasing to .560 over the remaining games on the schedule

Eastern OWP is .503 currently with it decreasing to .494 over the remaining games on the schedule.  They would need to win the AQ or hope atleast that King's makes it to the Final, because the other teams with near .500 records would not help their case if they were to lose in the final then.

Factor in say semi vs FDU and Final vs Kings = OWP .512 - the mysterious OOWP
Factor in semi vs FDU and Final vs Manhattanville = OWP .497 - the mysterious OOWP.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Eastern "should" be around .530 SOS.   F&M will be the first team I am looking for, if not completely absent...

Haverford should be #1 or #2

You probably just mis-typed and switched the three and the zero by mistake. .530 .....  .503   It's an easy flip.

[backyarddawg]

Seems like the 3 losses for Haverford are hurting them in every poll.

Their 3 losses came against teams with a combined record of 33-9-4 and 2 of the teams have 2 losses or less.

The vs RR teams will be interesting for next week as it looks like this from week 1:

As of 10/22:

F&M - 2-0
Lycoming - 1-1
Etown - 2-1
Haverford - 3-3
Eastern - 2-0
Dickinson - 0-2-1
Messiah -0-4
John Hopkins - 0-3-1

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Teams that just missed the cut IMO record vs ranked would be...

Gettysburg: 0-3-1 w/F&M remaining
Drew: 0-1 w/Etown remaining
Cabrini: 0-0
Arcadia: 0-3-1
Kings: 0-0 w/Eastern remaining

Cabrini needs to win the CSAC and King's needs to win the Freedom for any shot at NCAA's. At-Large berths are over/have been over for them. Arcadia needs to win the Commonwealth but could sneak into the rankings. Drew most likely needs to win the Landmark and may slide into the rankings but at-large berths for them and Arcadia are very slim, like 2% chance slim. Gettysburg with the best hope of cracking the top 8 if Hopkins slips up which is unlikely considering they have the bottom 3 of the Centennial remaining.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Also if Hopkins and Dickinson both end up 11-4-2 what's the tie breaker? They tied each other 1-1. Right now Hopkins has edge on SOS over Dickinson.

SOS:
JHU=.615
Dickinson=.562

RvR:
JHU=0-3-2 none remaining 
Dickinson=0-2-1 w/F&M remaining

Will be interesting but JHU's SOS will drop slightly over the next 3 games and Dickinson's will remain around the same with a slight bump after they play F&M. I would imagine JHU will have the higher SOS which is what it will come down to when finalizing rankings unless Dickinson gets a win or draw vs F&M.

I think both right now are on the wrong side of the bubble and need to go deep in conference playoffs if they want a chance.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Seems like the 3 losses for Haverford are hurting them in every poll.

Their 3 losses came against teams with a combined record of 33-9-4 and 2 of the teams have 2 losses or less.

The vs RR teams will be interesting for next week as it looks like this from week 1:

As of 10/22:

F&M - 2-0
Lycoming - 1-1
Etown - 2-1
Haverford - 3-3
Eastern - 2-0
Dickinson - 0-2-1
Messiah -0-4
John Hopkins - 0-3-1

JHU is 0-3-2 vs ranked. 3 losses=F&M, Haverford, Newark  Ties=Dickisnon, TCNJ

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Centennial Playoffs looking like this:

1. F&M/Haverford
2. F&M/Haverford
3. JHU/Dickinson
4. JHU/Dickinson
5. Up for grabs...Wash. Coll/Swat/Gettysburg

[Shooter McGavin]

Mid-Atlantic  In-Division Record  Overall Record
1. Franklin & Marshall  13-0-0  13-0-0
2. Lycoming  11-1-2  11-1-2
3. Elizabethtown  13-1-1  13-1-1
4. Haverford  11-3-0  11-3-0
5. Eastern   12-0-2  12-0-2
6. Dickinson  9-3-2  9-3-2
7. Messiah  9-4-1  9-4-1
8. Johns Hopkins  7-4-2  7-4-2

I think these are spot on. NCAA did a good job in this region.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

I agree that they got it right with this region. Wish I could say that for all the regions!!

[Mr.Right]

Im sorry Haverford should be #2 and I believe after next week will be

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

The 3 losses hurts them. If they are 3-3 vs ranked that's no different than being 1-1 or 2-2.

[Flying Weasel]

The 3 losses hurts them. If they are 3-3 vs ranked that's no different than being 1-1 or 2-2.

Experience tells me you are wrong.  3-3-0 is much, much better than 1-1-0.  As Mr. Right and I have numerous times said, it's the wins in the record versus ranked that seems most important. That is, how many times have you proven you can compete with and defeat ranked teams, the kind of teams you'll face in the tournament after the first round.  The committee encourages teams to play tough schedules by the high value they seem to place on SOS, but they recognize that the more the top team play each other, the more most of them will pick up blemishes.  And it seems that they are a lot less concerned with those blemishes you pick up along the way so long as you are also winning some to prove you belong in that upper tier of teams.

[Shooter McGavin]

I get both angles you guys are picking at here MAF and FW. I agree and disagree with both. Yes more ranked teams the better. But if you have the same record then its still the same winning % against ranked teams right? So essentially you're saying the committee is giving bonus points for having the same record vs ranked but because they played against 2 more that makes them better? 1-1 and 2-2 are the same so MAF is correct in his thinking. And FW is correct in the fact the more ranked you play the more favorable but that should reflect in your SOS and OWP and OOWP. Shouldn't get EXTRA points for 2-2 or 3-3 compared to 1-1. That was a mouthful!