2015 Mid Atlantic Region

[Mr.Right]

Also, looking around to other regions..There are a ton of regions with teams with possibly 3-4 wins v ranked..The South Atlantic a good example..The NJAC very well could get 3-4 Pool C's alone if an upstart like Camden wins the tournament. I think New England, Mid-Atlantic and North all suffer bids this year. The West, South Atlantic and Great Lakes pick up 1-2 more than usual.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Lycoming better hope they get to that final because Eastern and ETOWN both with 1 losses and right behind Lycoming have 2 regionally ranked wins

Eastern and Etown's SOS is poor though compared to Lycoming, Haverford and F&M. If there would have been a switch in the rankings it would have happened this week don't you think?

Quick comparison:

Etown SOS dropped to .526 from .538 and they added in the RvR of 2-1-0.
Eastern SOS went up from .503 to .508 and they added in the RvR of 2-0-0 which includes a head to head win @Lycoming.
Lycoming SOS dropped to .554 from .564 and they added in the RvR of 1-1-0.

If either of those teams would have passed them it would have happened yesterday. I think we can agree that SOS and winning percentage plays the biggest factor when comparing teams. Eastern and Lycoming have identical records, Eastern has the head to head, but Lycoming's SOS is through the roof compared to them which is why they are 2 spots ahead even with the loss to Eastern. But yes they do need to make it to the final. Anything short of that and they are in serious jeopardy of not making NCAA's. 

My thoughts are that if Eastern does not win the Freedom then they will not get an at large bid. If Lycoming loses to Messiah in the Commonwealth final then they are borderline and could go either way but it would depend on what other teams do like Etown, Eastern, Dickinson, F&M/Haverford etc. If Etown loses in the Landmark playoffs they would be in the same boat as Lycoming would be in. If all three of these teams win their respective conferences and F&M/Haverford win the Centennial you will have all 5 in right their which gives Dickinson and Messiah a great possibility of sneaking in...but both those teams, especially Messiah, need that to happen. Gettysburg is all but done after last night's loss and Hopkins is a loss or tie away from being finished as well as Dickinson. A lot is hindering on the Centennial playoffs for the rest of the teams in this region. 

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Lycoming's game vs. Oneonta St. was cancelled.  No way to know if that's to Lycoming's favor or not.  A win would have been huge should they not get the Commonwealth AQ, but would a loss have doomed them if they needed an at-large berth?

I agree with that 100%. Spot on FW! Maybe not doom but would not have helped the cause.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Oneonta St. maybe could have lifted Lycoming's SOS to around .570, but not .580.  But combined with Messiah in the Commenwealth final, an SOS around .580 wouldn't have been out of the question. (The Commonwealth semifinal won't help much at all, but wouldn't hurt.)

As it now stands without the Oneonta game, Lyco's SOS probably can only rise to the high .560's.

All depends how the Commonwealth shapes up from a seeding standpoint. We know Lycoming and Messiah will be 1 and 2 either way, but 3-5 is the question and the 1 seed won't know until 4 and 5 play. We do know after last night who 3 of the 4 teams will be and I think the biggest shock, at least for me, is the crash and burn of Alvernia. They will not making conference playoffs after only having 2 losses in non-conference play (5-2-4) which included a win over Dickinson and ties with Eastern, Etown, Cabrini, York, and a 1-0 loss to F&M. They are now 7-6-5 and 2-4-1 in conference play. One of the biggest disappointments since non-conference play has ended.

The MAC Commonwealth currently looks like this:

Lycoming * ----6-0-1-----19pts-----13-1-2
Messiah *------5-1-0------15pts-----11-4-1   
Widener *------4-3-0------12pts-----8-8-1
Lebanon Valley *4-3-0-----12pts------7-9-0   
Arcadia----------3-2-2-----11pts------10-5-3   
Hood------------3-4-0-----9pts--------12-7-0   
Alvernia---------2-4-1-----7pts---------7-6-5   
Stevenson------2-4-0------6pts--------5-10-1   
Albright---------0-8-0------0pts--------1-15-1

Remaining match-ups:

Stevenson @ Messiah---postponed from last night to tonight
Alvernia @ Messiah
Widener @ Lycoming
Leb Val @ Stevenson
Arcadia @ Hood----winner of this game will make playoffs

   

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Gettysburg wasn't ranked last week and Wesleyan was, so Haverford's record versus teams ranked last week is correct at 4-3-0.

What is shown in the data sheets (and on D3soccer.com) is the data used to rank teams this week.  So that data can't be based on who was ranked this week because that isn't yet known when the data sheets are compiled and given to the committee.

+K

[Shooter McGavin]

Also, looking around to other regions..There are a ton of regions with teams with possibly 3-4 wins v ranked..The South Atlantic a good example..The NJAC very well could get 3-4 Pool C's alone if an upstart like Camden wins the tournament. I think New England, Mid-Atlantic and North all suffer bids this year. The West, South Atlantic and Great Lakes pick up 1-2 more than usual.

In my opinion, they will not take a 4 or 5 loss team over a 1 or 2 loss team from those other regions if they have a good SOS as well (lets say an SOS above .545?). Teams that are pretty much done from the NJAC are TCNJ, Kean, Camden, and Newark. You will see MSU, Stockton and probably Rowan get in (at this point). TCNJ wins they are in and Newark is out and out for good of NCAA's. If TCNJ loses they are out and Newark is in and TCNJ would be out of NCAA's. 

Camden vs Stockton and Rowan vs TCNJ are huge games tonight in terms of at-large bids down the road.

If Camden wins the league then yes it is plausible that the NJAC may get 3-4 teams, but if MSU or Stockton win the league I think the NJAC gets 3 max in NCAA's. 

[Mr.Right]

All that I was saying is that it is quite possible the mid-atlantic gets only 1 Pool C....The Haverford / F&M loser. Dickinson and Messiah have no shot and ETOWN , Eastern and yes Lycoming all have very sketchy SOS or RvR...The committee will just move to one of those regions where you see teams with .580 or .575 SOS and 3-4 RvR...There is no rule that a committee MUST take a certain amount of teams for a region if any at all.

[Mr.Right]

Also, looking around to other regions..There are a ton of regions with teams with possibly 3-4 wins v ranked..The South Atlantic a good example..The NJAC very well could get 3-4 Pool C's alone if an upstart like Camden wins the tournament. I think New England, Mid-Atlantic and North all suffer bids this year. The West, South Atlantic and Great Lakes pick up 1-2 more than usual.

In my opinion, they will not take a 4 or 5 loss team over a 1 or 2 loss team from those other regions if they have a good SOS as well (lets say an SOS above .545?). Teams that are pretty much done from the NJAC are TCNJ, Kean, Camden, and Newark. You will see MSU, Stockton and probably Rowan get in (at this point). TCNJ wins they are in and Newark is out and out for good of NCAA's. If TCNJ loses they are out and Newark is in and TCNJ would be out of NCAA's. 




Then you have not observed the way this committee works..They most certainly will take a 4-5 loss team over a 1-2 loss team if deserved. RUN and for that matter the whole NJAC is a complete mess...Teams winning 3 in a row then losing 7-1. However, RUN still has an attractive resume if they can reach that NJAC Final. They def have work to do but they have played 7-8 ranked teams compared to Lycoming's 1-2...That factors in BIG TIME...If you do not believe me go back to the November months of each year the past 4 years on this board and look at all the complaining about how "their 1 loss side missed out and a 5 loss side got in"...

Camden vs Stockton and Rowan vs TCNJ are huge games tonight in terms of at-large bids down the road.

If Camden wins the league then yes it is plausible that the NJAC may get 3-4 teams, but if MSU or Stockton win the league I think the NJAC gets 3 max in NCAA's.

[Shooter McGavin]

All that I was saying is that it is quite possible the mid-atlantic gets only 1 Pool C....The Haverford / F&M loser. Dickinson and Messiah have no shot and ETOWN , Eastern and yes Lycoming all have very sketchy SOS or RvR...The committee will just move to one of those regions where you see teams with .580 or .575 SOS and 3-4 RvR...There is no rule that a committee MUST take a certain amount of teams for a region if any at all.

I understand that. I think only 1 would be harsh but there are other good teams out their. I think you will see 7 total(which includes AQ's) from the Mid-Atlantic. F&M/Fords as AQ and an at-large, Freedom AQ(probably Eastern-losing was the best thing for them), Commonwealth AQ(Lycoming or Messiah), Landmark AQ(Etown), CSAC AQ(Cabrini), and another at-large with a potential for a 8th(Lycoming if Messiah wins the Commonwealth + maybe a Dickinson??)  Did I miss any conferences for an AQ?

The RvR really hurts the bottom 4 teams(counting Gettsyburg so #6-#9) in this region which would hold them back when compared to other resumes. 

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Messiah is now 12-4-1 and have won 4 straight since losing to Lycoming. All of which have been shutouts. They have outscored their opponents 16-0 in that span. Seems like they are finally starting to click like many of us anticipated. Any thoughts on their postseason chances?

[backyarddawg]

MAF yes they are starting to roll but look at their opponents over that stretch.  They are a team if in NCAA tournament would be super dangerous. 

They are still 0-3 RvR.  They have to win conference to go to NCAA.

[Flying Weasel]

The only way Messiah gets onto the at-large bubble is if Washington & Lee gets ranked next week so the Falcons would have a win versus a ranked opponent.  If Messiah wins Saturday and in the semifinal, but lose to Lycoming in the final, they will have a 14-5-1  (.725) record and a SOS in the .605 range.  Give them a win verus a ranked team and that's as good a resume as some at-large selections over recent years (e.g. Dominican and Texas-Dallas last year).

But does Washington & Lee have any shot of being ranked next week? (Note: W&L being ranked in the final unpublished rankings does nothing for Messiah's record vs. ranked teams which for those rankings will be based on who was ranked in the third and final published ranking). 

If Washington & Lee defeat Roanoke Saturday, this is how they will compare to the currently ranked Salisbury and TCNJ who have none and one win verus ranked teams, respectively.

#5 Salisbury 11-3-3 (.735)  |  0-1-1 RvR  |  0.563 SOS last week, unlikely to change much
#8 TCNJ 10-5-2 (.647)  |  1-4-1 RvR  |  0.561 SOS last week, probably moves up from Rowan away loss
Wash & Lee 12-3-2 (.764)  |  0-2-0 RvR  |  .511 SOS last week, but will climb a bit with Randolph away, Roanoke at home

It's not unreasonable to think W&L could snag the last spot in the rankings with a win Saturday.  And while going undefeated in claiming the ODAC #1 seed doesn't directly count for anything in the quantitative criteria the committee considers, I think it would assure that their numbers are given full and fair consideration.

So, who knows.

Looking back at Messiah's position in the Mid-Atlantic rankings as that's half the battle before even getting compared to Pool C teams from other regions.  They could move up ahead of Dickinson by selection time.  If Eastern crashed out in the Freedom semifinals Messiah could even conceivably move up another spot since in that scenario, Eastern's SOS might be at or below .500 with missing out on playing King's in the Freedom final.  But let's assume that Eastern reaches the Freedom final and the best Messiah can do is jump ahead of Dickinson.  How could that happen?

If Dickinson beats F&M this Saturday then forget about Messiah passing them.  But, if the Red Devils, who are also without a win versus a ranked team, lose to F&M this Saturday they probably drop into the Centennial #4-#5 match which won't help their SOS and if they lose in the playoffs (regardless which round) it would give them 5 total losses like Messiah to go along with a lower SOS.  Then it might come down whether Dickinson can get a win vs. a ranked team. That would probably require winning a semifinal match as whoever they would play in a #4/#5 game most likely won't be ranked (Gettysburg already picked-up another loss this week, for JHU to drop into the #4/#5 match would mean losing Saturday, and Swat isn't and won't be ranked).

So, if . . .
. . . Washington & Lee wins Saturday and gets ranked next week, and
. . . Dickinson loses to F&M Saturday and doesn't reach the Centennial final next week,
all of which are reasonable scenarios, Messiah, even losing in the conference final to Lycoming, could end up #6 in the Mid-Atlantic with a .725 win pct., .605 SOS and 1 win vs. ranked teams. 

And, if . . .
. . . Eastern and E-town claim their conferenc AQ's, and
. . . one of F&M and Haverford wins the Centennial AQ
Messiah would be the second Pool C team in the region behind F&M or Haverford.

And that would have them on the bubble for an at-large berth.  Lots of if's and assumptions, but not unreasonable.

But I'm not counting on that.  The Falcons NEED to beat Lycoming (or whoever upsets Lyco with them looking ahead) in the Commonwealth final.

[lastguyoffthebench]

Rutgers-Camden finds themselves in nearly the same situation where they were last season, 11-7-1 heading into the NJAC tournament and playing Newark for the 2nd time.    However, Camden will have played 9 games or so vs ranked.    If they make it to the NJAC title beating Newark 2x, Stockton 2x, Rowan...  They will get a Pool C with 8 blemishes

It looks like MSU and Stockton will make it, with the wildcard team that gets to the NJAC final as the 3rd team.



Messiah earns the AQ, Lycoming pool C
MACF only gets 1 again this season, IMO
Dickinson gets in along with Haverford and F&M

[Shooter McGavin]

Rutgers-Camden finds themselves in nearly the same situation where they were last season, 11-7-1 heading into the NJAC tournament and playing Newark for the 2nd time.    However, Camden will have played 9 games or so vs ranked.    If they make it to the NJAC title beating Newark 2x, Stockton 2x, Rowan...  They will get a Pool C with 8 blemishes

It looks like MSU and Stockton will make it, with the wildcard team that gets to the NJAC final as the 3rd team.



Messiah earns the AQ, Lycoming pool C
MACF only gets 1 again this season, IMO
Dickinson gets in along with Haverford and F&M

I can see that playing out. Freedom is a one bid league. Kings and Eastern's SOS just kills them.

[Flying Weasel]

I can't imagine an 8-loss team getting a Pool C berth.  Never been done.  If they win Saturday and are ranked next week, and then win the semifinal, then I'll take a second look at their chances. 

Dickinson still has work to do, IMO.  Their SOS is solid but not high (it will get a bump from F&M Saturday) and they still lack a win versus ranked teams.  And right now they only have one tie versus ranked teams, so it's not like Salisbury's three ties to make up for no wins last year.  In other words, I don't think they can lose to F&M Saturday and lose in the #4/#5 playoff game still get an at-large berth.  I don't see how a single tie vs. ranked teams can compensate for no wins vs. ranked teams, 5 overall loses, and a solid but not outstanding SOS.  That's not saying I don't think they'll get a berth, only that I think they still have to add something to the resume.  Whether they can do that or not, I don't know and won't try to predict.