2015 Mid Atlantic Region

[igotthisfeeling]

I understand F&M's SOS is higher then Etown and Lyco but one criteria that is to be considered when they do their selections is recent performance - in which case F&M is not in a good place. Either way these rankings are pretty useless until we know who the AQ teams are and who drops into Pool C - then the rankings will matter for hosting/who makes it/etc. Until then its a good conversation topic to keep us occupied.

Curious what peoples thoughts are - what if Etown doesn't win the Landmark? I think they will win it, but what if they have a slip up like F&M did against Dickinson? Does Etown still get in? My opinion is yes they still get in but will not be playing at home...I think if they win their conference then they will/should host first rounds - just my thoughts!

[Flying Weasel]

Recent performance is NOT one of the primary or even secondary criteria to be used, by default at least.  The committee may request permission to weigh the final 25% of the season higher, but who knows if they ask for that permission and at what level it is used.  I suspect it would only be used for tie-breaking purposes when the five primary criteria leaves a couple teams level in the eyes of the committee.  Dickinson getting an at-large berth last year suggests the final 25% is either not always considered or if it is it is not weighted as high as the standard primary criteria.



from page 21 of the Pre-Championships Manual

PRIMARY CRITERIA

● Won-lost percentage against Division III opponents;
● Division III head-to-head competition;
● Results versus common Division III opponents;
● Results versus ranked Division III teams as established by the rankings at the time of selection. Conference
postseason contests are included; and
● Division III strength of schedule;
-- Opponents' Average Winning Percentage (OWP);
-- Opponents' Opponents' Average Winning Percentage (OO WP).
(See Appendix D on page 45)

Note: Contests versus provisional and reclassifying members in their third and fourth years shall count in the primary criteria.
Provisional and reclassifying members shall remain ineligible for rankings and selections.

Should a committee find that evaluation of a team's win-loss percentage during the last 25 percent of the season is applicable
(i.e., end of season performance), it may adopt such criteria with approval from the championships committee.

SECONDARY CRITERIA

If the evaluation of the primary criteria does not result in a decision, the secondary criteria will be reviewed. All the criteria
listed will be evaluated (not listed in priority order). The secondary criteria introduce results against all other opponents,
including those contests versus opponents from other classifications (i.e., provisionals, NAIA, NCAA Divisions I and II).

● Non-Division III won-lost percentage;
● Results versus common non-Division III opponents; and
● Non-Division III strength of schedule.

[lastguyoffthebench]

Third NCAA Ranking Prediction

1. Haverford
2. F&M
3. Lycoming
4. E-town
5. Dickinson
6. Messiah
7. JHU
8. Who knows... Kings?

Does Dickinson bump up to 4th with F&M sliding to 3rd or 5th?

Eastern, Cabrini, Kings, Scranton for that 8th slot possibly? It's up in the air.

Cabrini won't sniff the rankings due to the low SOS.  Aside from Eastern low SOS, the bad results alone could be enough to see them drop out.   

[igotthisfeeling]

FW, appreciate the reminder of all the criteria, even though I don't need it - been around this long enough...I was just making a comment that the committee could use recent performance for deciding selections/seeding/whether to take a team or not (which they have done in the past in various years)...didn't say to what level they use that info, but I said it could be considered. Never know what the committee is thinking as every year there are teams selected/teams left home for unknown reasons when you look at criteria that they are SUPPOSED to follow.

[backyarddawg]

Hero's rankings:

http://herosports.com/college-rankings/d3-mens-soccer-rankings/

[Mr.Right]

Dickinson will jump to #3 behind #1 Haverford and #2 F&M. That 1 win against F&M will bump them up over ETOWN and Lycoming. I talked about this in the UAA thread last week. Dickinson has available chances to win games against Ranked opponents where Lycoming and ETOWN do not. I just did not believe Dickinson would get it done. They still need to beat F&M one more time IMO opinion to get off the bubble

[Flying Weasel]

FW, appreciate the reminder of all the criteria, even though I don't need it - been around this long enough...I was just making a comment that the committee could use recent performance for deciding selections/seeding/whether to take a team or not (which they have done in the past in various years)...didn't say to what level they use that info, but I said it could be considered. Never know what the committee is thinking as every year there are teams selected/teams left home for unknown reasons when you look at criteria that they are SUPPOSED to follow.

I was just clarifying for anyone else, since your original comment ("but one criteria that is to be considered when they do their selections is recent performance") certainly made it seem like the end of season performance was definitely considered, when all we really know (unless you or someone has insider info) is that it could be considered, and only if the selection committee requested and gained permission to do so.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Dickinson will jump to #3 behind #1 Haverford and #2 F&M. That 1 win against F&M will bump them up over ETOWN and Lycoming. I talked about this in the UAA thread last week. Dickinson has available chances to win games against Ranked opponents where Lycoming and ETOWN do not. I just did not believe Dickinson would get it done. They still need to beat F&M one more time IMO opinion to get off the bubble

I have to disagree with you on this one Mr. Right. Dickinson will not be #3 on Wednesday. 6 blemishes and a 1-2-1 RvR...only thing they have going for them will be their SOS which will be higher than Etown and Lycoming. Other than that everything else favors Etown and Lycoming (record, winning%, RvR, regular season championship, etc). If they do jump to #3 it's because of their SOS and them finally getting a win vs a ranked team. Etown 2-1-0 RvR and Lycoming 1-1-0 RvR. SOS will be much much higher for Dickinson than Etown and Lycoming will be in the middle of that spread. Etown around .520ish, Lyco .545ish, and Dickinson around .570ish (give or take a few for each).

[Mr.Right]

Well...I just noticed Etown beat Dickinson so they might be #3 but your telling me Dickinson's reward for beating the #2 ranked team is to move up one spot? 

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Well...I just noticed Etown beat Dickinson so they might be #3 but your telling me Dickinson's reward for beating the #2 ranked team is to move up one spot?

Right and Etown won't jump Lycoming so therefore Dickinson doesn't jump either of them. It's not about rewards? Why would you punish Etown or Lycoming for consistently winning like they are suppose to?

Let us compare some common opponents amongst the 4 teams:

Etown: 16-1-1 w/wins over Dickinson, Messiah, Scranton, Sus, loss to F&M, tie Alvernia,
Lyco: 14-1-2 w/wins over Messiah, Scranton, Sus, Alvernia, LVC, Stevenson, tie Arcadia
F&M: 15-2-0 w/wins over LVC, Arcadia, Etown, Stevenson, loss Dickinson
Dickinson: 10-3-3 w/wins over LVC, Scranton, F&M, losses to Etown and Alvernia

So you're telling me that Lyco and F&M beat Alvernia, Etown ties them, but Dickinson loses to them...so that's a strike for Dickinson.

Dickinson loses to Etown, F&M beats Etown
Dickinson beats F&M, F&M loses to Dickinson

My point being is that it's always going to be a toss up even with common opponents thrown together, but Dickinson's blemishes just in the common opponents category between the 4 teams has them arguably 4th out of 4.

SOS favors Dickinson over Etown and Lyco. But once again everything else favors Etown and Lyco over Dickinson especially Etown having the head to head win...Etown has no reason to jump Lyco so Lyco will stay ahead of them. It's going to come down to where F&M falls. F&M might fall inbetween Etown and Lyco. Dickinson shouldn't jump any of the top 4 and they don't deserve to jump any of the top 4.

[D3soccerwatcher]

Widener 3
Arcadia 2
Final - 2 OT

[D3soccerwatcher]

Widener will get a rematch with Lycoming on Wednesday afternoon.

[blooter442]

One would think that Rochester is done. Even if they win at Emory next weekend, yesterday's loss to Brandeis means that they'll finish 7-3-5 at best, 1-2-4 RvR, and they haven't been ranked in either of the two RRs so far. The last part, particularly, is the most telling part, and I can't see them sneaking into the 3rd poll (or the final poll for that matter, even if they beat Emory.)

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

One would think that Rochester is done. Even if they win at Emory next weekend, yesterday's loss to Brandeis means that they'll finish 7-3-5 at best, 1-2-4 RvR, and they haven't been ranked in either of the two RRs so far. The last part, particularly, is the most telling part, and I can't see them sneaking into the 3rd poll (or the final poll for that matter, even if they beat Emory.)

They aren't a Mid-Atlantic team but I agree with your statement 

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

D3 Soccer Top 25 Poll:

8. Etown
9. F&M
12. Haverford
18. Lycoming
25. Eastern
RV: Messiah(44), Dickinson(36), Cabrini(6)