2015 Great Lakes Region

[lastguyoffthebench]

Week 1 Rankings (guess):

1.  OWU    (3-0)
2.  Kenyon (3-0)
3.  CMU (3-0)
4.  Thomas More (2-0)
5.   Geneva (2-0-1)
6.  Ohio Northern (2-1).   Beat Wheaton MA.  OT loss at Babson
7.   Rose-Hulman (2-1).  Beat Centre.  Loss to Chicago.
8.   Case Western Reserve (2-1). Loss to TM, but weak wins
9.   Capital (1-1).   Beat K-zoo
10. John Carroll (1-1).  Beat Elmhurst

[PaulNewman]

Lastguy, looks about right.  Probably would have included 2-0 Denison (with good road win over Emory) and DePauw, and Grove City may be a sleeper.  Wabash also has a shot to run off 6-7 straight wins with a very soft schedule.  John Carroll ramped up their schedule but may suffer from it with big road trip to play NC Wesleyan and Methodist.  And I'm curious to see which way Oberlin's season will go.

Next 5 games....

OWU -- @Otterbein, Spalding, @Centre, @Ohio Northern, Thomas More (last 3 will be good tests but would be surprised to see OWU lose any of those, especially with Thomas More appearing to have less than stellar defense)

Kenyon -- CMU, Marietta, @Centre, @Muskingum, Wittenberg (CMU obviously is huge and Centre away always is a challenge, and next game after those 5 brings Case Western)

CMU -- @Kenyon, @Wooster, Bethany, Westminster (PA), Grove City (Grove City game will be big for both teams)

Thomas More -- @Capital, Denison, Centre, @OWU, @Heidelberg (toughest stretch in the region and TMC living dangerously giving up goals)

Denison -- Wilmington, @Thomas More, @Capital, Marietta, OWU (another tough set of games but wins away at TMC and Capital would be huge)

DePauw -- Franklin, @Olivet, @KZoo, Loras, Rose Hulman (Well, that looks rough too, followed by Oberlin and @TMC)

Case Western -- @Baldwin Wallace, John Carroll, @Wooster, @Wilmington (JCU game a big one and next game after these 5 is @Kenyon)

Ohio Northern -- Wittenberg, Thiel, Brockport, OWU, @Case (3 major tests there in a row)

Capital -- Thomas More, Case, Waynesburg, Denison, Hiram (some landmines there with OWU looming)

Oberlin -- Waynesburg, Earlham, @Grove City, Medaille, @Baldwin Wallace (looks soft except for @Grove City and need to run table on these 5 with @DePauw next)

Others -- Grove City, Geneva, Wabash, John Carroll, Rose Hulman

[Domino1195]

Based on Massey - Denison will most likely make it.  Based on what we saw from Denison in spring games, I thought they were going to be in for a long season. They did start 2 freshman this weekend, only have two seniors. Makes me wonder about Emory . . .

Got to feel bad for Kalamazoo.  I told some of their fans Friday as we drank away the rain-out that teams come in and expend tremendous physical and emotional energy playing OWU the first night and hit the wall the next.  Capital has been the beneficiary three times, beating Colorado College, K-zoo and tying Christopher Newport they day after these teams played OWU. Sunday's game was moved to Capital, on turf, humid and it was 100+ degrees on the field at kick off.

[lastguyoffthebench]

Massey Ratings:

Kenyon
OWU
Thomas More
John Carroll
CMU (Messiah result not posted), not enough for them to bump Kenyon or OWU.
K-zoo (3rd result not posted)
Denison
Ohio Northern
Case Western
DePauw
----------------
Rose-Hulman
Geneva


Is this the first year NSCAA has not posted rankings after the first weekend?  I can't remember....

[PaulNewman]

Lastguy, you don't have your game legs yet, lol.  Now you got Kalamazoo in Great Lakes!

[Domino1195]

Weather already impacting games today - Cap and Thomas More moved to tomorrow at 7pm.

[lastguyoffthebench]

Lastguy, you don't have your game legs yet, lol.  Now you got Kalamazoo in Great Lakes!

Son of a bee sting.

[TennesseeJed]

Kenyon now 4 from 1 after week 4 loss to DePauw on D3 Soccer poll.  Will be interesting to see where they land on NSCAA later today.  DePauw made it into top 25 for D3 as well.  Current Great Lakes teams in D3 top 25:

#4.  Kenyon (down from 1 after 1-0 loss to DePauw)
#9.  Denison (up from 13 following W's vs Heidelberg and Hiram)
#13. Carnegie Mellon (down from 7 following big 4-2 loss vs Brandeis
#17.  Thomas More (up from 24)
#24.  DePauw (just made list after 1-0 win vs previously #1 ranked Kenyon)

Receiving votes: Case Western (98), OWU (19)

I think I'd put TMC ahead of CMU in my own ranking due to the draw at Westminster, but it's not a quantitatively objective opinion.

Interestingly, Massey now has:

TMC 1st of all Great Lakes teams at #8
Kenyon 2nd at #11
Denison 3rd at #14
Case Western 4th at #22
DePauw 5th at #25
OWU 6th at #34
CMU 7th at #46

I think Massey has it closer to my sense of current team strength/ability than D3 Soccer.  Kenyon vs. TMC would make a very interesting game, as it did last year in round 1 in Gambier, ending in PK's... 

[TennesseeJed]

Huge week for NCAC.  NCAC game picks and predictions for current week:  (Home teams listed first, scores listed in same order as teams.)

Saturday 10/10/15:  Relatively easy day for more highly ranked teams, but upsets always possible.  Oberlin vs. Wabash (@Oberlin) is game of the day.

• DePauw vs. Hiram:  2-1  DePauw will stay at top of NCAC at 3-0-0 if they pull a W at home; shouldn't be much of a problem for the Tigers.
• Allegheny vs. Denison:  0-1  Definitely give Big Red the W, but they haven't been scoring big and Allegheny has held a number of teams to low scores.  Could easily be 0-2 or 1-2 if Denison offense plays well
• Oberlin vs. Wabash:  2-1  Wabash last 3: losses to OWU and Centre and draw vs. Allegheny; Oberlin held strong UAA team Case Western to 1-1 draw in 2OT, plus Oberlin has HFA
• Wooster vs. Kenyon:  0-3  Not much of a contest; wish Kenyon had a tougher schedule today going into next 2 games
• Wittenberg vs. OWU:  0-3  Not much of a contest here either.  Wittenberg has HFA, but not enough to matter much if OWU momentum continues and players healthy

Wednesday 10/14/15:  Much bigger game day for NCAC!  Game of the day is Kenyon vs. Oberlin (@Kenyon).

• Kenyon vs. Oberlin:  2-1  Kenyon takes a W at home vs. the Yeomen (the sting of DePauw loss still fresh) if they can penetrate a defensively postured Oberlin squad
• Wabash vs. Denison:  0-1  Wabash has HFA, but Denison is the better team.  Crawfordsville crowd tough, but betting on Big Red to ride home with a W
• Allegheny vs. Hiram:  1-2  This is pretty close to a pick 'em for me but I'm giving Hiram a slight edge, even though they're on the road.
• OWU vs. Wooster:  3-0  Not much of a contest here, even worse in Delaware, OH for the Scots.  2 easy games for OWU not necessarily best for them going into following week, but easy game for Bishops
• Wittenberg vs. DePauw:  0-2  Not much of a contest here either.  DePauw will collect another W and go 4-0-0 in NCAC

[TennesseeJed]

10/10 recap (home team first, scores ordered home first, away second)

Wooster vs. Kenyon:  1-6 Kenyon
Oberlin vs. Wabash:  0-1 Wabash
DePauw vs. Hiram:  1-0 DePauw
Allegheny vs. Denison:  1-0 Allegheny
OWU vs. Wittenberg:  6-0 OWU

1 big upset (Allegheny over Denison) and 1 surprise (Wabash over Oberlin).  Definitely makes NCAC dynamics interesting!  DePauw maintains only perfect NCAC record; OWU and Allegheny w/ no losses, but one tie each.  Kenyon, Denison with one loss each and Oberlin with 2 losses.  Kenyon maintains current best overall record at 9-1-0.  OWU strong momentum continues but tougher games ahead for both Bishops and Lords.

[PaulNewman]

NCAC Review

DePauw 3-0 (@Wittenberg, @Wooster, OWU, @Denison, Wabash, @Allegheny)

OWU 2-0-1 (Wooster, Allegheny, @DePauw, @Oberlin, Kenyon, Hiram)

Kenyon 2-1 (Oberlin, Denison, @Hiram, @Allegheny, @OWU, Wabash)

Denison 1-1-1 (@Wabash, @Kenyon, Wooster, DePauw, @Wittenberg, Oberlin)

Wabash 1-1-1 (Denison, @Hiram, Wittenberg, Wooster, @DePauw, @Kenyon)

Oberlin 1-2 (@Kenyon, @Wittenberg, Allegheny, OWU, Hiram, @Denison)

****Allegheny is 2-0-1 but with only 3 total wins all season not considered a strong contender for a NCAC playoff spot

DePauw should be 5-0 and OWU 4-0-1 when the Tigers host the Battling Bishops on 10/20 for a mid-week night game.  The DePauw-OWU game should go a long towards determining the regular season winner and home field for the NCAC playoffs, at least until OWU hosts Kenyon for another mid-week showdown on 10/28.  Getting OWU at home definitely adds to DePauw controlling their own fate, with an away game at Denison the only obvious potential remaining serious challenge thereafter as the Tigers get the Little Brown Jug game (or something like that) with Wabash at home.

With a win at DePauw, OWU would trump the Tigers as the frontrunner and squad controlling their own fate, creating even more drama for the Kenyon visit 8 days later, assuming the Lords can be clean at home in their back-to-back rivalry games with Oberlin and Denison.  No easy task for the Lords as Oberlin and Denison always play well against the Lords, usually producing very tight 1-goal kinds of games.  The Lords also would have to handle road games with Hiram and Allegheny leading into the short trip to Delaware to make the OWU tilt as compelling as possible.

Preseason one would have guessed that DePauw, OWU and Kenyon would be the top NCAC contenders, but Denison can put themselves very squarely back in the mix with away wins at Wabash and Kenyon.  The Wabash game, with long travel mid-week, will not be easy, especially if the Big Red are even mildly looking ahead to the Lords.  If Denison can somehow navigate the coming week they'll still face home games down the road with DePauw and Oberlin.  If Wabash can knock off Denison at home, then the Little Giants would be favored in the next 3 and a very competitive 5-1-1 heading into back-to-back road games with DePauw and Kenyon, a daunting challenge to end the season.  Oberlin, already with 2 losses, must be considered on the outside looking in as games with Kenyon, OWU and Denison remain.

The edge at the moment belongs to DePauw and OWU.  Knowing that a win for DePauw would likely be handing the regular season trophy to the Tigers, I expect OWU to prevail in that one, especially as the Tigers were very fortunate to leave Gambier with a win after being mostly dominated against Kenyon.  As noted, the Lords have considerable work to do but an OWU win at DePauw would provide an opening for Kenyon to regain control of their own destiny.  Denison is a longshot for one of the top two spots but certainly still very viable to land one of the other two playoff slots.  Denison's trip to Wabash could be key in terms of determining the final playoff spot.

[TennesseeJed]

NCAC Review

DePauw 3-0 (@Wittenberg, @Wooster, OWU, @Denison, Wabash, @Allegheny)

OWU 2-0-1 (Wooster, Allegheny, @DePauw, @Oberlin, Kenyon, Hiram)

Kenyon 2-1 (Oberlin, Denison, @Hiram, @Allegheny, @OWU, Wabash)

Denison 1-1-1 (@Wabash, @Kenyon, Wooster, DePauw, @Wittenberg, Oberlin)

Wabash 1-1-1 (Denison, @Hiram, Wittenberg, Wooster, @DePauw, @Kenyon)

Oberlin 1-2 (@Kenyon, @Wittenberg, Allegheny, OWU, Hiram, @Denison)

****Allegheny is 2-0-1 but with only 3 total wins all season not considered a strong contender for a NCAC playoff spot

DePauw should be 5-0 and OWU 4-0-1 when the Tigers host the Battling Bishops on 10/20 for a mid-week night game.  The DePauw-OWU game should go a long towards determining the regular season winner and home field for the NCAC playoffs, at least until OWU hosts Kenyon for another mid-week showdown on 10/28.  Getting OWU at home definitely adds to DePauw controlling their own fate, with an away game at Denison the only obvious potential remaining serious challenge thereafter as the Tigers get the Little Brown Jug game (or something like that) with Wabash at home.

With a win at DePauw, OWU would trump the Tigers as the frontrunner and squad controlling their own fate, creating even more drama for the Kenyon visit 8 days later, assuming the Lords can be clean at home in their back-to-back rivalry games with Oberlin and Denison.  No easy task for the Lords as Oberlin and Denison always play well against the Lords, usually producing very tight 1-goal kinds of games.  The Lords also would have to handle road games with Hiram and Allegheny leading into the short trip to Delaware to make the OWU tilt as compelling as possible.

Preseason one would have guessed that DePauw, OWU and Kenyon would be the top NCAC contenders, but Denison can put themselves very squarely back in the mix with away wins at Wabash and Kenyon.  The Wabash game, with long travel mid-week, will not be easy, especially if the Big Red are even mildly looking ahead to the Lords.  If Denison can somehow navigate the coming week they'll still face home games down the road with DePauw and Oberlin.  If Wabash can knock off Denison at home, then the Little Giants would be favored in the next 3 and a very competitive 5-1-1 heading into back-to-back road games with DePauw and Kenyon, a daunting challenge to end the season.  Oberlin, already with 2 losses, must be considered on the outside looking in as games with Kenyon, OWU and Denison remain.

The edge at the moment belongs to DePauw and OWU.  Knowing that a win for DePauw would likely be handing the regular season trophy to the Tigers, I expect OWU to prevail in that one, especially as the Tigers were very fortunate to leave Gambier with a win after being mostly dominated against Kenyon.  As noted, the Lords have considerable work to do but an OWU win at DePauw would provide an opening for Kenyon to regain control of their own destiny.  Denison is a longshot for one of the top two spots but certainly still very viable to land one of the other two playoff slots.  Denison's trip to Wabash could be key in terms of determining the final playoff spot.

Great analysis, as always!  A few random thoughts to add:

• Agree completely that the Tigers vs. Battling Bishops matchup is the most important near term game for NCAC in terms of HFA and regular season champs.
• I caught enough of the Allegheny Denison game yesterday to walk away feeling that, while Allegheny is still not a serious contender, they have serious potential to be a spoiler for the other contenders for rest of the season and a team that nobody should take lightly as an easy W.  This is supported by the relatively low-scoring and/or close games they've had vs. stronger teams recently.  During the portion of 2H that I watched, I thought the Gators controlled possession far more than Big Red and outplayed them pretty completely, making the big home W entirely deserved.  In fairness, I did not see 1H.
• Wooster came out strongly against Kenyon yesterday, at least relative to my expectations.  Said differently, the Lords came out flat and sluggish in 1H vs. the Scots relative to my expectations too.  The tide clearly reversed in 2H and Kenyon decided to do what they're capable of doing...  Playing weaker teams is not great for prepping the Lords for tougher games.  I'd love to see them schedule a few more tougher, non-conference matches (like Case and CMU) earlier in the season to get them ready for tougher NCAC conference games and NCAA play.  The Lords do have HFA for Oberlin on Weds, but they need to start winning games in 1H and not need to be trailing to get their mojo flowing.  It won't work against OWU IMO, and it's a high risk strategy for Oberlin, Denison and Wabash.
• Oberlin playing Wittenberg and Allegheny is not great prep for the OWU game for them either (unless they have injuries)...though, as I said above, Allegheny is capable of surprising teams and should not be overlooked.
• Wabash is a key game for Denison going into the Lords game, with both games away for the Big Red.  The Allegheny game definitely takes some wind out of their sails.  Personally, I'd like to see Denison prevail, but Wabash is tough in Crawfordsville and, from personal experience, a tough crowd of home fans to support the Little Giants (they were shockingly unsportsmanlike last year for the Lords game).  Agree that a W for Wabash puts them in strong shape with only DePauw and Kenyon to stop them.  Kenyon did get vindication for the 1-0 loss in Crawfordsville with a tournament win, but the sting is still fresh in many players' minds from 2014.  I expect to see the Lords very fired up for this game at home and to have a good home crowd to support them.
• OWU has 3 relatively easy games in a row, all at home, before they go on the road to face DePauw and Oberlin and then return home to face Kenyon.  I'd give OWU the edge on both away games, but a loss at either is possible.

[PaulNewman]

VERY important result for Kenyon, and they desperately needed that kind of game for games ahead.  Also very fortunate to get the win.  Not saying Oberlin deserved to win, but they could have.  Oberlin is much better than a 7-5-1 team and I'm sure the home loss to Wabash where they really outplayed Wabash is tough to take.  More than a few times Kenyon players underestimated the athleticism of Oberlin players and lost the ball, and they have some dangerous attacking players to help Ingham out now.  Their GK was outstanding.  Oberlin should win a bunch of games but probably will have to win out and beat OWU in order to have a chance at a playoff spot (and then they still may need a little help).  Kenyon has A LOT of work to do if they are going to ensure a bid and make a serious run.  At times they get so stretched they look they there is no midfield and little resistance through the midfield as numerous times Oberlin quickly transitioned from a Kenyon attack all the way back to Kenyon's CBs (who are playing well btw).  Kenyon also IMHO looked very sloppy, with poor touches and resorting to long ball too frequently.  Again, there are moments of good passing but not really sustained build-up through the midfield.  They looked more athletic than technical today, and perhaps so desperate to score and get ahead that they sometimes are just too hurried.  And the stretch that TennesseeJed referred to in the 2nd half was not good.  After an excellent play and finish by Amolo, Brown went to the bench and Oberlin dominated and threatened for a solid 15 minutes.  Almost waited too long to get Amolo and others back in, and as soon as he did the game tilted back dramatically to Kenyon's favor again.  The potential is definitely there for Kenyon but they certainly are not there yet.  They really need to get focused and get more solid and crisp over the next 3 games.

P.S.  I really credit the Oberlin coach for the style of their play and strides they have made in that program.  Oberlin is a fantastic school and probably edges Kenyon as the top academic school in the NCAC, but it also has a reputation for being a very artsy, alternative, progressive kind of school and not an "athletic" school by any stretch.  Getting good soccer players there I'm guessing is not easy, and they now have some very good soccer players.

[PaulNewman]

Wow.  Great end to end action in Denison @Wabash game.  Ended 0-0 but both teams desperately trying to score and Wabash almost got caught twice in last minute with no numbers back.  Denison hits cross bar and then chips GK under 10 secs and not sure how ball didn't go in (although also looked like at least 3 Denison players were offsides and not called so maybe they weren't).

[Ryan Harmanis]

General thoughts on the NCAC:

Technically, it's a four team race: DePauw, Kenyon, OWU, and...Allegheny?  Not to discount the Gators, but they had a non-conference record of 1-6-1, with 23 goals against and only 9 goals for.  Now they sit at 3-0-1 in the NCAC, tied for second.  In reality, their record is a mirage - they haven't played the other big three teams, and they've won their last two games with 6 shots (3 SOG) in each.  That's just not going to cut it.

Denison is out of the race, and the Big Red have a small margin of error for making the conference tournament.  They've already dropped 7 points, and they still have to face Kenyon, DePauw, AND Oberlin.  Only blessing is they seem to have caught OWU just before they hit their stride.  But it may come down to Denison vs. Oberlin, and whether either of those teams can pick up points off of the top 3 teams.

As for the title, I don't know if there's a clear favorite.  Leg up to DePauw because they haven't dropped any points.  OWU/Kenyon is a wash IMO because OWU has one extra point but still has to play both teams.  OWU getting the soft part of the conference right now is a blessing, as they were extremely beat up (still no excuse for the debacle that was the Thomas More game) and seem to be getting healthy and on the right track.  On that note, I'll politely disagree about playing tough competition - I think it's important to see tough competition at some point during the season, but don't think it's nearly as important as health or having a team playing well.  Messiah won all those titles despite a cupcake conference.  They played tough teams early to get used to it, then used the conference slate to heal up, bed in the new guys for depth, and get their offense and possession play flowing.

As for the big matchups.  I think the current OWU squad matches up better with DePauw than a few years ago.  The 2010-2013 teams really dominated the ball, and that was exactly what DePauw wanted - they'd just soak up pressure and hit ridiculously quick on the counter. They pasted the 2011 title team 4-2 that way in the conference championship, and it's been close to even since then. But OWU has been playing a little more direct at times, varying the tempo, and that is tougher for DePauw.  Also, DePauw has to feel confident based on results (Witt in OT aside), and they're at home.  That might encourage them to come out and play a little more, but I don't think they want to get into a shootout.  I wouldn't.  OWU's speed is built for the counter, it's just something they've never used much until the last season or two.

Kenyon has OWU left, but the more dangerous game for the Lords IMO is Denison.  Not because it's more difficult, but because Kenyon really can't avoid another slip before the OWU game.  Denison always seems to give them major issues, and they'll be playing desperate.  One thing I've noticed, without watching a ton, is that Amolo has been scoring some big goals.  I thought (and still think) the thing that will get Kenyon over the top is if he can produce against the really good teams. 

Finally, here's a wild scenario that could play out if OWU beats DePauw.  Kenyon @ OWU.  If OWU wins, they win the conference; if Kenyon wins, they win at least a share of the conference (with DePauw); if they draw, DePauw wins the conference.  That would make for a great game - tons of incentive to attack.  These games in recent years have been pretty tight, more physical and territorial than pure soccer.  But I thought the conference championship last year was by far the most open/entertaining one I've seen in a long time - and this year's might end up being exactly the same, especially if that scenario played out.