2015 Great Lakes Region

[PaulNewman]

Good analysis. 

Couple of thoughts. Oberlin has been really unlucky and will have to be basically flawless to get a NCAC playoff spot.  DPU is very fortunate and also hard to figure.  Beat Loras and Kenyon and go to double OT with Witt, although tremendous laser strike from 30+ yards to win it.  Should be in Great Goals.  Teams don't get punished for winning OT games but they sure are costly when you lose them as you get nothing.  RE: injuries....not good whenever they happen but there are better times and worse times.  I wish Kenyon had played a couple of tougher games, but the bigger problem is that they just haven't played that much at all.  Only 3 games in over 3 weeks I believe.  Other issue of course is that not having some tougher games may lead to less than desired SOS.  And of course hard to know ahead of time every year.  Waynesburg actually was pretty good last year, pushing TMC and Grove City but misery this year (and must have lost a large senior class).

[PaulNewman]

The other point about Kenyon and why they could have used a couple of more games, period, and one or two against solid competition, is that they are trying to gel together a line-up (including subs) of more than half a team.  Hopefully they won't pay too much for the lack of games and will peak at just the right time and while still relatively fresh and healthy.  We'll have to see.  I expect them to be VERY sharp against Denison and play their most complete game of the year.  They will need to be as Denison will be highly motivated because of rivalry, having a very good season themselves, and last year's game.

[TennesseeJed]

Kenyon's starting junior left back (Resnekov) was not in for the entire game vs. Oberlin and may not be in for a number of games, or potentially the rest of the season.  Unclear right now.  One of the two starting sophomore right backs slid over to left and the other played the right.  Lucky too that Barnes wasn't injured again.  It was concerning when he left for a few mins in 2H, limping off the field.  Losing Resnekov isn't a total loss for the Lords (and I'm not saying I don't think he's a really important player, but I think they can handle this one position for a couple of games), but it does take out a 60+ minute per game guy who's been very effective in his spot this year and requires Kenyon to rely on freshmen for subs (again, not being critical of their freshmen--they're talented, just not that much field time yet at the college level for many of them) during the most difficult and most critical time in their season.  If there's another critical injury (or illness), the Lords will have a tougher time coping than they did against the Yeomen.

Kenyon has OWU left, but the more dangerous game for the Lords IMO is Denison.  Not because it's more difficult, but because Kenyon really can't avoid another slip before the OWU game.  Denison always seems to give them major issues, and they'll be playing desperate.  One thing I've noticed, without watching a ton, is that Amolo has been scoring some big goals.  I thought (and still think) the thing that will get Kenyon over the top is if he can produce against the really good teams. 

Wondering if you meant can't afford rather than can't avoid?  I assume you meant the former, that they can't afford another NCAC slip up and I agree.  (If you actually meant avoid, then I respectfully disagree.)  The Denison game was pretty evenly matched last year, ending in a 1-0 Kenyon win as I recall, and I'd expect it to be tight again this year, particularly given Denison's significantly improved play this year vs. 2014.  Kenyon does have HFA this year and I'd expect the Lords to get a decent crowd to the field.  I don't think the Lords' fate lies as singularly on Tony's shoulders as I interpret your comment above, but he's clearly an important weapon for Kenyon and he, as well as the others, need to score goals more quickly, more reliably and more frequently under pressure.  I also don't think I'd necessarily agree that they'll play desperately either, though I acknowledge that this is very subjective and very much a matter of one's perspective, and I'm clearly biased towards the Kenyon side...  I'd expect them to play assertively and with real determination and to try to aggressively put points on the board early in the game.  I'd love to see them moving the ball through the midfield a bit more too and a few less long balls hoping to find a forward inside the opponent's 30 yd line...

Finally, here's a wild scenario that could play out if OWU beats DePauw.  Kenyon @ OWU.  If OWU wins, they win the conference; if Kenyon wins, they win at least a share of the conference (with DePauw); if they draw, DePauw wins the conference.  That would make for a great game - tons of incentive to attack.  These games in recent years have been pretty tight, more physical and territorial than pure soccer.  But I thought the conference championship last year was by far the most open/entertaining one I've seen in a long time - and this year's might end up being exactly the same, especially if that scenario played out.

Couldn't agree with you more:  The conference championship was a great, entertaining game last year.  Bottom line is that all three teams have their work cut out for them--Kenyon potentially more than the other two just given their remaining schedule and the fact that they've dropped a game to DPU.  No matter what happens during the regular season (i.e., who wins the NCAC conference), the NCAC championship tournament games will be hard fought, fun to watch games, no matter who wins the season's top record.  Great year to watch NCAC soccer because there's so much strength across the conference this year.

[PaulNewman]

Agree with all TennesseeJed.  The Lords can absorb not having Resnekov for a few games if needed, especially as I think the top 3 (or 4) outside backs are fairly interchangeable (maybe lose a touch of pace with one and gain a bit on the technical side with another but really pretty even).  But they can't afford more key injuries of any serious nature.  They need all of their available firepower in the midfield and up top, and you don't want your young backline to be "a work in progress" as the move into the crunch part of the season.  Also agree that Amolo should expect help and I think he'll get it.  Great to have Glassman back at full or near-full strength and hopefully this will be his first year in three where he can be healthy for any post-season run.  Also thought Amolo looked much more in control of his game (and his emotions).  If the offensive talent around him -- Barnes, Eudy, Glassman, Jeon, Lee, etc -- step up and are sharp I think Amolo is too good not to break through himself or create goals for others moving forward.  I'd like to see Carmona get himself into more attacking positions, but he is valuable coming out of the holding area with his superb handling and distribution skills.  Don't want to downplay what it would mean to win a regular season NCAC title, or the conference tournament title, as I'm sure the Lords will go hard after both, but the success (or lack thereof) of Kenyon's season will be determined after all that.  In that sense, the only real pressure is to make sure you remain viable for a NCAA bid.

[TennesseeJed]

Agree with all TennesseeJed.  The Lords can absorb not having Resnekov for a few games if needed, especially as I think the top 3 (or 4) outside backs are fairly interchangeable (maybe lose a touch of pace with one and gain a bit on the technical side with another but really pretty even).  But they can't afford more key injuries of any serious nature.  They need all of their available firepower in the midfield and up top, and you don't want your young backline to be "a work in progress" as the move into the crunch part of the season.  Also agree that Amolo should expect help and I think he'll get it.  Great to have Glassman back at full or near-full strength and hopefully this will be his first year in three where he can be healthy for any post-season run.  Also thought Amolo looked much more in control of his game (and his emotions).  If the offensive talent around him -- Barnes, Eudy, Glassman, Jeon, Lee, etc -- step up and are sharp I think Amolo is too good not to break through himself or create goals for others moving forward.  I'd like to see Carmona get himself into more attacking positions, but he is valuable coming out of the holding area with his superb handling and distribution skills.  Don't want to downplay what it would mean to win a regular season NCAC title, or the conference tournament title, as I'm sure the Lords will go hard after both, but the success (or lack thereof) of Kenyon's season will be determined after all that.  In that sense, the only real pressure is to make sure you remain viable for a NCAA bid.

Well stated NCACNE.  Your last point reinforces my basic earlier message but is more to the point:  ultimately, the titles and recognition, and certainly HFA, AQ and seeding are all very important, but getting in the tournament, one way or another, is sufficient to give you a shot at the title that really counts and the season conf record doesn't count much once you're in...as the 2014 champs proved...  I think the worst-case scenario, and biggest potential risk for the Lords, is a second in conf loss, and a loss in the conf championship that could potentially put them in a third spot in the regional rankings, which would mean they're likely out of the tournament with no AQ and no pool C...  Hoping that someone can dethrone the Tigers and that Kenyon wins Denison and then pulls a W or T vs OWU. 

I've noted your previous desire in past posts to see Carmona play his holding mid position a bit more aggressively and I think that he showed some progress in the past 2 games, particularly against the Yeomen.  I don't think Wooster was the best game for evaluation but I think there was ample evidence there too.  I think that it can be difficult to play some midfield spots when there are a lot of long balls from CBs and GK across the center line looking for forwards, particularly when the opponent is credible and capable on a rebound attack.  They spend a lot of time running the field, expending energy for little incremental return, with turnovers and a return attack (possibly another long ball back to the Kenyon side) the most likely outcome.  Good for fitness, but not a high probability offensive strategy in my book.  Better defensively if you just want to clear the ball out of your end of the field, buy a little time and rest your CB's for a few seconds.  The CB's are doing well defensively 1-1 IMO but don't have the best ball handling skills and are definitely not the best distributors of the ball on the team.  Better to feed the outside backs or midfielders who are better on the ball and move it more precisely up field.  In fairness, there was a blend of strategies in the Oberlin game, but not as much as I would like to see and in interviews with players, I sense that many of them feel the same.  I agree that it's great to see JG healthy and playing more and it was great to see him put 2 in the net recently.  He's a workhorse for the Lords and one of their best at applying forward pressure to the opponent's defenders and GK.  I think he also gets the best out of Tony A many times, as they seem more in synch than some of the newer forwards.  Love to see his physicality and hope that his minutes continue to increase over next few games.

[TennesseeJed]

Ryan, I'm kind of directing this question to you since you played at OWU (congrats, btw!), but it's up for grabs too.  Why does OWU seem to play almost exclusively night games?  Is it just field scheduling?  Does Doc Martin prefer night games?  Just curious.

[Ryan Harmanis]

TJ - correct, I meant Kenyon can't afford another slip-up at this point (that's what I get for posting so late).  And to clarify, my reference in terms of playing desperate was to Denison, not Kenyon, as Denison hasn't been scoring goals and could really use a good result to get back on track.

The thing with Amolo, in my opinion, is that he's the guy that's usually been able to break games open for Kenyon against teams that sit and defend, or can't hang with Kenyon for a full 90 minutes.  But, particularly against OWU the last couple seasons, he hasn't caused many issues.  So I think if Kenyon can get him, as the focal point of the attack, to produce against the best opposition, that's going to put them in a much better position to win.

Kenyon often controlled much of the territory when I played at OWU, but a lot of the time they just failed to do anything with it.  For example, in 2010 they outshot us heavily in Gambier, but only put 2-3 on goal and we won 4-1.  The same thing happened in the first matchup last year, as Kenyon dominated field position but neither team came close to scoring.  That's what was so different in the conference championship - they were getting somewhere.

As for an NCAA run, the draw is key.  Kenyon's last three trips ended in a loss to Final Four OWU (2014), champ Messiah (2013), and Elite Eight OWU (2010).  You have to think that with a more favorable draw the Lords like their odds.  It would be nice to see the committee split the NCAC teams, especially if three get in this year, so that we aren't limited to only one with a shot at a deep run.

[Ryan Harmanis]

Why does OWU seem to play almost exclusively night games? 

I think it's mostly for the atmosphere, and I know the players prefer playing at night because it just feels more exciting.  It makes it much easier to get fans as well - all sports teams practice at 4pm so for midweek games that would decimate the student/parent attendance.  Aside from that, I assume it's just preference, having lights, all of that.  I don't know how much of an advantage it is come tourney time, except that OWU often gets to host and then they're used to playing at night.  The Final Four alternates years between guys and girls playing during the day or at night, so no real advantage there.

[TennesseeJed]

TJ - correct, I meant Kenyon can't afford another slip-up at this point (that's what I get for posting so late).  And to clarify, my reference in terms of playing desperate was to Denison, not Kenyon, as Denison hasn't been scoring goals and could really use a good result to get back on track.

Thanks for clarifying both, and I agree with you on both.  It's getting down to the wire and after a fantastic start to the season, the Big Red have definitely waned a bit in the Allegheny and Wabash games.  Sorry I misinterpreted the reference.

The thing with Amolo, in my opinion, is that he's the guy that's usually been able to break games open for Kenyon against teams that sit and defend, or can't hang with Kenyon for a full 90 minutes.  But, particularly against OWU the last couple seasons, he hasn't caused many issues.  So I think if Kenyon can get him, as the focal point of the attack, to produce against the best opposition, that's going to put them in a much better position to win.

Tony definitely is capable of opening games up.  I agree entirely.  His play can be a bit streaky and he needs to find and fully hit his stride for sure.  He played well against Wooster, but we need to see him play with that level of success against Denison, Allegheny and OWU, when the teams are capable of pressuring the Lords' attacks more effectively and have him under deep cover.  I think he suffered in the DePauw game from being called too many times for offensive fouls under 2-3x coverage, honestly rendering him almost unable to move forward for a good chunk of the game and forcing a lot of turnovers, but I openly admit I'm biased and may not be seeing it fully objectively.   As I said above, I think it's great that Glassman is back in because I think he seems to often be more able to push Tony and raise his game than some of the other Kenyon forwards.

Kenyon often controlled much of the territory when I played at OWU, but a lot of the time they just failed to do anything with it.  For example, in 2010 they outshot us heavily in Gambier, but only put 2-3 on goal and we won 4-1.  The same thing happened in the first matchup last year, as Kenyon dominated field position but neither team came close to scoring.  That's what was so different in the conference championship - they were getting somewhere.

I think this played out to some extent in the details underlying the box score stats when both teams played Wooster (though in fairness, I only saw 5-10 mins of the OWU vs. Wooster game).  OWU scored 3 in 1H and 4 in 2H, with roughly even shooting across both halves, if I remember correctly.  Kenyon outshot Wooster dramatically (as they did Oberlin and others), but allowed them to go up 1-0 early in 2H before they got (you fill in the blank:  mad enough, enough composure, serious, focused, etc...) to finish and convert SOG's to G's...Similar end results, but very different ways of getting to the W.  Kenyon has had many games this season and last, where there are more than enough shots and sog's to win games more convincingly than they have but they've suffered from a low conversion rate.  They should have scored more than once vs. Oberlin IMO but the Yeomen freshman GK played a fantastic game and avoided a lot of GA's that some other teams and GK's would have ceded. 

As for an NCAA run, the draw is key.  Kenyon's last three trips ended in a loss to Final Four OWU (2014), champ Messiah (2013), and Elite Eight OWU (2010).  You have to think that with a more favorable draw the Lords like their odds.  It would be nice to see the committee split the NCAC teams, especially if three get in this year, so that we aren't limited to only one with a shot at a deep run.

Couldn't agree with you more.  Thought the same last year.  Would be great to see a couple of NCAC teams in different quadrants and not see each other until later in the matches.  I don't get the sense that there's any real chance of that happening, but you could easily make the case that DePauw could play with North and/or Central teams.  It might be harder to separate Denison, Kenyon and OWU on purely geographic reasons, but if there was another way to segment them, it'd be great.

[PaulNewman]

I'm guessing that normally it's almost impossible to have OWU and Kenyon (or most Ohio schools) in different sectionals and even the other side of the sectional as the other side last year played at Emory (where Whitworth prevailed).  Last year I think they could have because Wheaton got placed out West and hosted and OWU could have been sent to Wheaton, just as Kenyon was sent to Wheaton the prior year.  Don't know exactly but might have been even closer for OWU than going to Calvin last year.

Speaking of sectionals and sites and such, I wonder if TMC has a shot at hosting if they win out (which is more than likely).

[TennesseeJed]

P.s., just a quick point re: earlier discussions on Tony Amolo's play this season, given the sometimes very high expectations for him...

NCAC Stats Leaders: (Does not include most recent games on Saturday):


Rank           Name                  School      Points        GP      G       A      Shots    Goals/shot     Points/GP
   1              B. Schaefer         OWU           30           14      12      6        61          .197              2.14
   2              T. Amolo             Kenyon       24           10      10      4        36          .278              2.40
   3              J. Ingham            Oberlin       24           12      11      2        47          .234              2.00


Quick conclusion:  Tony is 2nd (I believe)  in points after the Oberlin game, with 4 fewer games played than Schaefer and 2 less than Ingham.  Not saying there haven't been a lot of unfortunate missed opportunities for him to score even more, but the same could be said for Schaefer, Ingham and other stats leaders.  Easy to get down on very talented players when their teams are not putting up as many goals as we'd like to see, but his goals/shot and points/game played ratios are better than the other two leaders, so had he played as many games as the others and maintained his current point ratio, he'd likely be first in the NCAC.  Still have high hopes (and expectations) but just don't want to fail to recognize success and credit where credit is due, not just for Tony, but for the others as well.

[PaulNewman]

Fair, good points, TJ.  Barring injury, Amolo is on pace to shatter all Kenyon scoring records.  And he has produced in some big games.  He got what turned out to be the GW as a frosh vs Wheaton in the round of 32 at Wheaton, notched a PK in the shootout vs TMC last year in the tournament, scored against CMU and last week against Oberlin this year, and there are more.  I think he has the whole package in terms of playmaking, passing, shooting and finishing.  While he is physically solid and sturdy, he's not a big kid who is going to steamroll you, and while he has very good pace he's not lightning fast.  He does need the players around him to be threatening to create some space for him to operate.  Teams no doubt try to mark him out of games, and I agree with you that he got beat up against DPU and wasn't given any leeway against those tactics.  I wasn't on him so much because he didn't do more but because I thought he had some responsibility in letting DPU and the ref get him out of sorts which in my opinion led to the ref not giving him any breaks on the day.  And I was really impressed with how he handled himself against Oberlin and basically just played.  RH is correct...he's hasn't gotten a lot done or scored against OWU yet (but of course no one else really has either and their best games against OWU were real team efforts).  I will say that he had a terrific free kick just a few minutes into the 2nd half of the Sweet 16 game that might have really turned that game with @40 minutes left, and Beemiller, the GK for OWU, made a phenomenal save on a ball that was bending into the top right corner.  At any rate, I know Tony personally and he knows I'm a huge fan.    He can be mad at me after the season  .  Ironically, I actually took some shots on this board last year for pumping him up too much!  Beyond my own craziness, I'm hard on him (and the team in general) because I know how much they want it.  I also can afford to be a bit freer with my commentary compared to prior years.  Looking forward to the game today.  Should be a good one.

[PaulNewman]

Wow.  DePauw is really playing with fire.  Down 2-0 to Wooster in 1st half.  They most likely will come back and win, but very surprising after they barely, barely escaped from Wittenberg.  OWU just beat Wooster 7-0.  Of course if they win the game will count just as much as the others, but not great messages to send out with OWU about to head to Greencastle.

[TennesseeJed]

Well, you definitely called it that they'd likely at least catch up...currently tied at 2-2 w/ less than 8' left in 2H.  Even a tie, which is still way too early to call, would really make for an interesting end to the NCAC season!  I guess Wooster really got their mojo flowing after two floggings by Kenyon and OWU.  Unfortunately, Wooster has some of the lowest quality video around...  I've only seen just a few mins of the game, but the Wooster GK is earning his pay today!  Scots are playing the Tigers in late 2H like they played Kenyon in early 1H.  Didn't get to see the OWU game...

Update:  Going to OT

[blooter442]

Well, you definitely called it that they'd likely at least catch up...currently tied at 2-2 w/ less than 8' left in 2H.  Even a tie, which is still way too early to call, would really make for an interesting end to the NCAC season!

The second game in 24 hours that NCAC has predicted the team 2-0 down would come back to 2-2. Whether it's a case of being clairvoyant or pure coincidence, impressive nonetheless!