2015 Great Lakes Region

TennesseeJed · October 17, 2015, 02:20:40 PM

Quote from: blooter442 on October 17, 2015, 01:57:32 PM
Quote from: TennesseeJed on October 17, 2015, 01:52:51 PM
Well, you definitely called it that they'd likely at least catch up...currently tied at 2-2 w/ less than 8' left in 2H. Even a tie, which is still way too early to call, would really make for an interesting end to the NCAC season!

The second game in 24 hours that NCAC has predicted the team 2-0 down would come back to 2-2. Whether it's a case of being clairvoyant or pure coincidence, impressive nonetheless!

It'd be even more impressive if he can call the winner now that it's still 2-2 in 2OT! I'd be one happy dude to see the Scots dining on Tiger for dinner tonight! Not likely if they keep giving so many set pieces to DPU...

TennesseeJed · October 17, 2015, 02:28:35 PM

DPU @ Wooster 2-2 Final 2OT

PaulNewman · October 17, 2015, 03:25:11 PM

I was so disgusted watching DePauw equalize that after 2-2 I quit watching and took a nap. 2 soft goals for DPU IMHO as Wooster committed a terrible foul in the box and then let a fairly harmless free kick turn into EJ Moore getting loose and from a bad angle burying a shot to level. Can't believe Wooster held them off for the rest of the game and 2 OTs. The draw will do for now.

Still laughing 2 days later about Mr.Right's "white coats" post. When the white coats come for me, my only request is gonna be "well, can I at least finish this last post" lol.

PaulNewman · October 17, 2015, 03:40:32 PM

And now I'm calling for the white coats to come get me, as the Kenyon video not working.

TennesseeJed · October 17, 2015, 03:42:20 PM

Quote from: NCAC New England on October 17, 2015, 03:40:32 PM
And now I'm calling for the white coats to come get me, as the Kenyon video not working.

Funny, I was about to write the same thing...Live stats is now updating for me but I still have no video...

Surprising that Kennedy Kommor is not starting for Big Red. Any idea if it's injury-related? Big loss for Denison if he's out for today. Scratch that...he just subbed in.

TennesseeJed · October 17, 2015, 05:33:08 PM

Kenyon takes Denison Big Red 3-0 and goes to 4-1 in NCAC. Denison drops to 1-2-2.

PaulNewman · October 17, 2015, 06:30:10 PM

Good, very solid win for Kenyon. I worried they were letting the Big Red hang around too long after Amolo scored, as I could see Denison equalizing off a long free kick or a corner or something. Would like to see the Lords cut down the free kicks given away in their own half, and there are teams (Midd, Amherst, OWU, etc, etc) who will punish you if you give them too many of those. Also thought the Lords tried to play a little too fine at times, looking for the extra tight pass for a perfect shot when they could have let a few more go and then looked for a rebound. All in all, though, a pretty dominating performance. And most importantly the other forwards are starting to come up big which is going to help out Amolo moving forward.

PaulNewman · October 17, 2015, 07:14:55 PM

Hiram beats Wabash 2-1. The 4th NCAC playoff spot is wide open.

PaulNewman · October 17, 2015, 08:45:43 PM

The Great Lakes is the strongest its been in my handful of years following along IMHO.

The cream appears to be (alphabetically):

Case Western (big game tomorrow)
Kenyon
OWU
Thomas More

I'm guessing all of the above could beat each other on the day.

Closely behind in the next tier (alphabetically):

Carnegie Mellon
DePauw
Ohio Northern (quietly now 13-3, unblemished in the OAC, and holding a W over OWU)

Next tier (alphabetically):

Denison
Grove City
John Carroll
Oberlin
Penn State-Behrend
Rose-Hulman

Domino1195 · October 18, 2015, 10:42:07 AM

Quote from: NCAC New England on October 17, 2015, 08:45:43 PM
The Great Lakes is the strongest its been in my handful of years following along IMHO.

The cream appears to be (alphabetically):

Case Western (big game tomorrow)
Kenyon
OWU
Thomas More

I'm guessing all of the above could beat each other on the day.

Closely behind in the next tier (alphabetically):

Carnegie Mellon
DePauw
Ohio Northern (quietly now 13-3, unblemished in the OAC, and holding a W over OWU)

Next tier (alphabetically):

Denison
Grove City
John Carroll
Oberlin
Penn State-Behrend
Rose-Hulman

I think we're going to see the tale of two seasons with several of these clubs. The OWU shut-out streak seems to support the MO for this team two years running - early bumps, team gels and wins out. I was surprised that Denison had the start they had but it seems the team over achieved early on - great pre-conference record none-the-less. Thomas More's challenge is going to be staying focused during weak conference play and somehow enter the post season sharp. ONU is a solid team with many of the same types of players on the field. They remind me of both Case and TM as to how their teams are built. John Carroll is clearly missing all those seniors from last year - they're getting results but hardly dominating their opposition.

Kenyon and OWU have a diversity of players - especially on the attacking side - that give them the edge versus the rest of the field. ONU has a couple of guys that know how to score - TM has their standout attacker - that on any given day can lead them to victory. But of the teams I've seen first hand (8 on this list) I think OWU and Kenyon have the best chance of going to the final four.

Ryan Harmanis · October 18, 2015, 02:34:04 PM

NCAC - appreciate the more detailed info on Mr. Amolo. I wasn't trying to knock him at all either, just know he's usually the game-winner for Kenyon and in the tourney teams that go deep get production from those guys. So I think my view is that he's a proxy for Kenyon's success - if he performs they're likely to do well.

DePauw dropping points yesterday is rough. I do think the style of play factors in, as maybe they're just built to counterattack and prefer playing that was as opposed to breaking down a team that concedes possession. Will be interesting to see how they handle OWU coming to town. OWU looks like they're playing well but it's going to be a drastic step up in competition, especially on the defensive side. Question is whether the shutouts are results of schedule or a real improvement in the back.

PaulNewman · October 18, 2015, 03:32:52 PM

Huge weekend for Case and really muddies how to figure out the top 4 in Great Lakes as projected above. Congrats to them and great for their program. Really too bad the game Kenyon didn't and isn't happening. And Ohio Northern appears to be the hot team in the next group waiting for a falter. CMU was down 1-0 to Emory last I checked.

PaulNewman · October 18, 2015, 06:10:29 PM

I got curious about the stats raised by TJ for the NCAC, so this is where we appear to be today, expanded to include the Great Lakes region overall. I may have missed someone, so please chime in if I did.

Brian Schaefer -- OWU -- 13 G, 7 A (15 games)

Tony Amolo -- Ken -- 12 G, 4 A (12 games)

John Ingham -- Ober -- 12 G, 2 A (14 games)

Matt Kinkopf -- Ohio Northern -- 11 G, 6 A (16 games)

William Webb -- CMU -- 10 G, 5 A (12 games)

Chris Cvecko -- Case West -- 10 G, 2A (14 games)

and the punch line....

Austin Juniet -- TMC -- 12 G, 17 A (14 games)

Brian Runyon -- TMC -- 13 G, 9 A (14 games)

So aside from games played, TMC has two players ahead of the others. TMC had as tough as schedule as anyone until conference play, and in fairness, the numbers for Juniet and Runyon should continue to inflate from here until tournament time. Juniet, for example, had a goal and a whopping 5 assists in yesterday's game versus Westminster (PA). Regardless, 17 assists is a boatload.

Amolo and Schaefer likely will battle to the end of the regular season or whatever the cut-off is for conference POY. Both appear to be healthy and in form. Amolo will have less games and I'm sure plays less minutes based on Kenyon's usual subbing patterns. I'm on record on the site describing Schaefer as an excellent, dangerous player, and I will say that he's even better than I thought. He had a very strong season last year, but he's doing everything and more that one would expect in terms of him taking over as the leader of the team in the wake of Colton Bloecher's graduation. I don't think there is any question that Juniet, Schaefer and Amolo are on pace for All-American honors, and IMHO Juniet has to be a serious contender for NPOY or national offensive POY especially if he, Runyon, RJ Best, et al can take TMC on a deep run.

TennesseeJed · October 19, 2015, 11:40:51 AM

Quote from: NCAC New England on October 14, 2015, 06:03:18 PM
...

P.S. I really credit the Oberlin coach for the style of their play and strides they have made in that program. Oberlin is a fantastic school and probably edges Kenyon as the top academic school in the NCAC, but it also has a reputation for being a very artsy, alternative, progressive kind of school and not an "athletic" school by any stretch. Getting good soccer players there I'm guessing is not easy, and they now have some very good soccer players.

I was just curious about the relative admissions of the 2 schools (Oberlin vs. Kenyon, because I know there is definitely some competition amongst students at both schools...) after your recent post, so I did a little digging on comparable acceptance rates among top performing DIII soccer programs w/ highly competitive admission standards and low acceptance rates (proxy for strong academics), as reported by US News and World Report. I listed every school on the list that I was familiar with as being a competitive DIII men's soccer program. Apologies if I left any off the list--not intentional--I just didn't recognize the name, or it was an oversight. Many of the most competitive schools on the USNWR list are DI (Ivies, Georgetown, Stanford, etc...), so this list is not close to 100 because it only lists DIII programs that I knew of that had DIII soccer programs.

MIT, NESCAC, UAA and a few Centennial conference schools are no surprises, but there are a few here and there that might surprise you!

From US News and World Report Article on Top 100 Colleges with Lowest Acceptance Rates in 2014: http://colleges.usnews.rankingsandreviews.com/best-colleges/rankings/lowest-acceptance-rate

College/Univ. Accept. Rate Conference
MIT: 7.9% NEWMAC
U Chicago: 8.8% UAA
Caltech: 8.8% SCIAC
Claremont/Mudd/Scripps: 10.8%/14.3%/27.3%, resp. SCIAC
Pomona-Pitzer 12.2%/13%, resp. SCIAC
Amherst: 13.8% NESCAC
Bowdoin: 14.9% NESCAC
Johns Hopkins: 15% Centennial
Swarthmore: 17% Centennial
Wash U: 17.1% UAA
Middlebury: 17.2% NESCAC
Tufts: 17.3% NESCAC
Colorado College 17.9% SCAC
Coast Guard 18.1% NEWMAC
Williams 19.3% NESCAC
W&L 19.6% ODAC
Carleton 22.8% MIAC
Vassar 23.5% Liberty
Wesleyan 23.9% NESCAC
CMU 24.6% UAA
Haverford 24.7% Centennial
Kenyon 25.1% NCAC
Bates 25.4% NESCAC
Babson 26.3% NEWMAC
Hamilton 26.4% NESCAC
Emory 26.8% UAA
CUNY-Baruch 27.9% CUNYAC
Colby 28.1% NESCAC
CUNY-Lehman 28.9% CUNYAC
Oberlin 32.7% NCAC
Trinity 33.0 NESCAC

Totals # Schools on List/Total Schools in Conf Region Schools in Region
NESCAC: 10/11 New England 13
UAA: 4/8 Multi-Region {Great Lakes (1), Central (2), South Atlantic (1)} n/a
SCIAC: 3/8 West 4
NEWMAC: 3/8 New England incl. above
Centennial: 3/10 Mid-Atlantic 3
CUNYAC: 2/9 East 3
NCAC: 2/10 Great Lakes 3
SCAC: 1/8 West incl. above
Liberty: 1/9 East incl. above
MIAC: 1/11 North 1
ODAC: 1/12 South Atlantic 2
Central 2
Total 31 31

I'd have to say that based on gut feel and history, I would have agreed with you that Oberlin might slightly edge Kenyon academically, but the stats and data above potentially suggest otherwise (though I freely admit that this is just one factor and acceptance rate is not a perfect determinant of academic rank--which is subjective in any case). With respect to SCIAC schools, I also consider Pomona and Pitzer as one, and same for Claremont/Mudd/Scripps, because they are listed as a single school for soccer and conference listing purposes, so each only counts as 1 school in the overall conference totals. So, of the top 100 most competitive (or lowest acceptance rate) colleges and universities, strong d3 soccer programs account for 32 of the top 100 schools, by my count and they are pretty widely distributed amongst regions too but with concentrations geographically that likely won't surprise anyone...

PaulNewman · October 19, 2015, 01:07:24 PM

Interesting stats but maybe a little misleading. Certainly acceptance rate is a huge factor to consider and one of the more compelling, but I don't think it's the sole or even overriding factor, as Williams has been ranked #1 for as long as I can remember and you wouldn't conclude that just from these stats, nor, for example, would almost anyone conclude that Colorado College is academically "higher" than a Carleton. Also would need to get admit rates for like 5 and 10 year periods. You're highlighting Kenyon's lowest rate in the school's history. Many years Oberlin's has been lower, and I can't think of a year where Kenyon was ahead of Oberlin in US News (although they are almost tied this year I think). For me, they are very much in the same tier of schools academically and saying much beyond that is probably pretty meaningless.