2015 Great Lakes Region

[Domino1195]

Perhaps not a justification, but here's possible reasoning if I'm the committee, loosely using their criteria.  (1) Denison has a good record/win%; (2) Denison has really good wins over Emory and Thomas More and a tie against region #1 OWU; (3) Denison has, by far, the highest SOS of the ranked teams, and it's light-years beyond Kenyon's right now; (4) Denison and Kenyon have identical 5-0 records against common opponents (Heidelberg, Marietta, Muskingum, Wooster, Hiram).

I get that Kenyon easily handled Denison, but we can't just go head-to-head for the regional rankings.  It's circular - Denison beat Thomas More beat OWU beat DePauw beat Kenyon beat Denison.  So once you look beyond the head-to-head, it becomes less surprising, especially given Kenyon's low SOS.  I said this in the other thread, but knowing Kenyon's SOS is below .500 makes it more surprising that they were ranked at all.  Kenyon has avoided blemishes, which does count for something, but that's partially because they've played few quality teams, and the committee isn't going to speculate as to what they would have done against a better schedule.

As for the fact that Waynesburg kills the SOS, you can avoid some of the risk by upping the average level of your opponent.  When you schedule several above-average teams, as Denison did, you can afford more blemishes because your SOS is so much higher.  What's killing Kenyon isn't Waynesburg, it's the low number of non-conference games and playing below-average teams for nearly all of them.  To put it in perspective, even if you substitute Waynesburg into Denison's and OWU's schedules for Thomas More - the biggest shift possible - both teams still have a much higher non-conference opponents' win%, with Denison at 0.525 and OWU at 0.516, compared to Kenyon's 0.452.  And that's not even including Denison's cancelled game against John Carroll, which offsets (valid) complaints about Kenyon missing out on the Case game.

I just want to re-emphasize this doesn't reflect my view of the teams, or (to your point) the actual result between them.  What it does reflect is that the committee works with data, and the criteria have been known and used for a long, long time,  so Kenyon was on notice this could happen.  Frankly, I'm guessing it's what happened in 2007, when Kenyon went 14-2-2, won the NCAC, played a very weak non-conference schedule and didn't get an at-large bid when they lost in PKs in the conference semis.  That, above all else, just reinforces that Kenyon still has total control of their destiny this year with regards to an NCAA bid.  Win the NCAC tournament and we've all just been spinning our wheels here.

Well said.  I saw Waynesburg last year - they weren't good then.  Same for Otterbein, Marietta, Muskingum.  Centre is the one opponent that, based on last year, you would think is hurting Kenyon's SOS. If you "just" look at stats and don't see the teams play you may read more into a team's strength than exists on the field.  Massey et. al. are fun for reference - but thank God for playing the games!

The ball is firmly in their possession and they HAVE to get results.  Allegheny is one of those "schedule-maker" games that young college kids can look past and hurt themselves by doing so.  Same for OWU at Oberlin.

TM, Rose Hulman are locks for 2 of the top 4 spots - nothing of consequence left on either schedule. Rose drops if their SOS declines - not because they will lose but due to previous opponents declining results.  OWU and Kenyon round out the top 4.  I think Denison will continue to fade and fall below the 6th spot.  ONU has cupcakes left - they may need help from teams they beat to "strengthen" their SOS - but they get 5th - but won't make the field unless they win their tournament. Case has some tough games left - if they sweep they could jump into the top 4 - I just don't think pull it off.  5th or 6th and on the bubble.

[PaulNewman]

Ughhh.  I ended the night thinking I was done, and then, this morning, with my head feeling a little clearer and seeing that there was a bit more activity later, I have a few points in response to a few points.  And this will be my last, double-secret last post on these matters...until 15 minutes after turns out it's not, lol.  Sorry and apologies to all in advance.

@FW, @RH, @anyone-else-interested....And FW, I'm moving our exchange over here for simplicity, politeness, etc.  Maybe should be its own thread.

A discussion starts in one place and after a few reactions and responses back and forth there is more than one topic that is going on, sometimes to the point that we lost what the original thing was as some of us get interested/invested in other points that emerge along the way.  One of my points is that I am interested in, not only like in this case how SOS works and whether it's component ingredients make sense to me, but also in what is happening on the board as we have the discussion.  These things are organic in some sense and as a discussion goes on multiple things can be happening , which can be even more interesting, convoluting, frustrating, etc, etc.

FW, you know I'm not a newbie, and I know I'm not a newbie.  I think you missed the point with that, and I found that a tad insulting.  I thought I was pretty open about generally knowing how things work and admitting that I wasn't super-interested until "my team" was so directly impacted.  I've commented before about other teams seeming to get screwed on this or other issues, and just yesterday I was questioning Middlebury's SOS and TMC's regional placement, but, yes, I'm not likely to go on for a bunch of posts or get "into a thing" about perceived extra-generous or bad happenings to teams I may be interested in but not both interested AND invested in.  Not saying others don't do better at this or aren't more vigilant about appearing neutral when maybe they really aren't or whatever, but at least to some degree I think we all can fall prey to such weaknesses.  I also think that, formally/officially/unofficially we all wear different hats or personas, depending on the topic, depending on the team involved, depending on how much it matters to us, etc, etc.  I personally have tried hard to offer content and opinions far afield from "my team" and I'm sure the consensus would be that my better stuff has been when I do that, and I would suggest that this is more or less true for some other posters.  There are times when something on your own team, as a retrospective or in hingsight, or providing insight that otherwise might not be provided, can be very good and pretty non-controversial.  I think RH's piece way back on the anatomy of an upset and my own backstory/reflection on the impact of Kenyon's last graduating class on the standing of the program both at least roughly fall into that category.  Certainly there are plenty of times when analysis involving one's own team can be quite good where any bias can be nicely handled and/or accounted for.  And then there are times when I think things can get a little muddled and I'll be the first to admit that I am muddled in this moment or at least last evening.  That doesn't necessarily insights are worthless or for anyone else who might be a bit muddled as well, but seems natural to expect an invested interested (vs just an interest)  to be, well, more invested, and for that to influence what data I find and choose to present and what potential data doesn't even my mind to look into because I'm looking for the data that supports my point.  There's also of course differences in style and how are brains work based on our own backgrounds. professions, etc....so some may be more logical/psychological/legal/ mathematical, etc and so some of apparent stalements may come down to some point that seems absolutely cyrstal clear from my perspective but not yours, and vice versa.  So on to what I hope will just be a couple of points from some of last posts last night.

First, the idea that "your coach should have known, after all he was the chair of the cmte...our team planned for this so we're good, and that's what you guys should have done."  In a word, EXACTLY.  My guess is that that is exactly what "my team" did precisely because they do know, and obviously the plan is not panning out as expected.  I was one of the first to complain about the Case game, so we can put some portion on that.  Before I get to the "numbers" issue, I'll concede 1 game or even 1.5 games of a lesser schedule.  I think I recall RH lamenting in the preseason or early season that OWU had an atypically soft schedule this year FWIW.  Anyway, I think, aside from the # of home games issue that TJ has correctly underscored, I don't think anyone would have suspected the Kenyon was "too light" with CMU, Centre, Heidelberg (a NCAA team) and Case scheduled along with a NCAC schedule (a conference I believe RH just quantatively identified as one of the top 4-5 conferences in the country).  "Planning" doesn't account for how few wins Waynesburg, Witt, Woos, Muskingum would rack up, and planning doesn't account for weather or bad field conditions (although the latter and not having the turf field ready for soccer if that was an issue I do at least put partly on the school).  It's actually counter-intuitive to suggest that the coach didn't know what he was doing (and frankly, a tad insulting).  I would bet that the coach has a very keen sense of how SOS works and what he planned for.  [Domino, saw your post....Waynesburg may have been bad but they were 9-7-4 and 5-2-1 in conference last year and the year before 10-3-4....agree on Muskingum and Marietta but I think Kenyon, OWU, Denison, etc all play at least at least a couple of these teams every year in part due to location and in part maybe as favors?  Certainly nothing unusual or different this year about having them on the schedule.]

Secondly, regarding the numbers, yes, the numbers are the numbers. TJ has raised a good point about weighting.  And when so many are so surprised about so many teams, not just mine, regarding the results, that naturally is going to lead to even non-newbies taking a closer look at "OK, now how exactly is that SOS derived?" and does that make sense.  Now I get that whether it makes sense or not is irrelevant to whether it's going to happen, but that's not irrelevant to discussion and whether it makes sense.  I'd like to hear how TMC being as low as they are makes sense given their schedule, and whether they should be at risk if they don't get their AQ.

Third, the idea of "well, geez, just win your AQ and there's no problem" is the doozey for me, and impresses as pretty convenient, all things considered.  Well, of course, that makes sense.  But teams do the planning mentioned and try to have strong seasons just in case they don't win the AQ!  Isn't that the/a point?  Isn't that why you try really hard to limit your blemishes and feel pretty good when you do?  Just comes across as a little dismissive and, to borrow the analogy from last night, a lot like a throwing up of exasperated hands, to say, well, yeah, you've had a great season, but go win the AQ just like an 8th place NESCAC team or 6th place NJAC team.  We could just say that about every single team in D3 that has access to an AQ.  And Whitworth having their AQ in hand is great for them and makes worrying about their SOS unnecessary, sure, but it doesn't negate whether they should be in that position.  What about other NWC teams down the road?  Will they almost by definition always have to win their AQ because of geography?  Does a Whitworth have to spend a lot of money for an early season Messiah/Montclair double? [And yes, I know they played Wheaton last year.]

As I said with my initial reaction yesterday, I think my team will be fine.  Also ironic that I was putting the brakes on earlier in the year about the high rankings and I believe you, FW, challenged, well, I get your reasoning for wanting them lower but who else are we going to put higher. 

I'll close with the reference to the 2007 team, which I think makes one of my points.  Perhaps it was the schedule.  I honestly do not know what it was.  I don't know if it was the ONLY time a regular season winner of the NCAC didn't get a bid or not, but that is an angle that could have been chosen to inquire about.  While we may cite certain "facts" or numbers (or whatever), which facts we choose to highlight and which we decide not to explore quite as much are all part of what we all do.  I think it's an assumption to suggest that the schedule might have been the primary reason (unless there is some real insider knowledge), but more importantly, I think that reflects what we all do....in terms of whether we react to a post here or not, choose to ignore a post, feel compelled to respond, or whatever.  What we do, and what and how we choose to investigate, and what we deem as most notable, what games we follow or commentate on more closely than others, who we side with or don't side with, etc, etc, often is influenced by our own allegiances...whether in those moments our "client" is one of our teams, a colleague, the site in general, a conference, some muddled version of some or all of those, etc, etc.

Until next time...

[Shooter McGavin]

By far the most confusing region this year as some have stated earlier. Reminds me of Happy and Bob Barker getting into on the course...weird and confusing day that was. Anyways enough about my glory days. I vote TMC and Kenyon as the top 2 in this region. Kenyon has a horrid SOS though. CWR right behind them. If CMU makes the tournament that is a crime. Most overrated team in D3 Soccer this year.

[PaulNewman]

I'm starting an online petition....Case and Kenyon should play at Case Sunday afternoon.  Kenyon plays a 5:00 game at Allegheny Saturday and can stay at Lebron's place Saturday night.  Case plays at Waynesburg at 6:00 and can ride home that night.  Will get in a bit late but then they are at home.  Conversely, Kenyon comes home Friday night and Case drops by on their way back to Cleveland for a 3:00 game at Kenyon.  Gives Kenyon full 2 days of rest (almost 3) before night game at OWU and Case doesn't play again until next Friday.  Both teams benefit.  Pull a Popovich and just have subs go against subs if needed.

[Shooter McGavin]

NCAC NE I like the way you think. I am guessing all your negative Karma is from Mr. Right? Wouldn't surprise me as you have good thoughts and logical conversations. That equals negative Karma from Mr. Right. I agree. I wish Kenyon and Case wouldn't have cancelled. Was actually a game I planned on attending. Very disappointing it didn't get rescheduled somehow.

[PaulNewman]

NCAC NE I like the way you think. I am guessing all your negative Karma is from Mr. Right? Wouldn't surprise me as you have good thoughts and logical conversations. That equals negative Karma from Mr. Right. I agree. I wish Kenyon and Case wouldn't have cancelled. Was actually a game I planned on attending. Very disappointing it didn't get rescheduled somehow.

Shooter, Mr.Right and I gave each other probably 40-50+ negative karmas towards the end of last year, but we are on pretty good terms so far during this campaign.  It's quite a sight when men over 50 act like children, but sometimes men over 50 need to act like children and one day you'll understand what that means.  Try to appreciate his insights.  He knows his stuff and he is a huge net plus for the site, especially when he is on his game, which has been pretty much all of the time straight through this season.  Now let's get back to getting this Case-Kenyon game scheduled. 

[Shooter McGavin]

I agree and noted that in my last post before I even read this one. NESAC thread/topic though. He does know his stuff. It's fun to get him excited though. Adds to great conversation and friendly debate. Had a little fun earlier. Don't worry it will be mostly business from here on out.  Who would you take in that game though if they did play? Kenyon or Case?

[PaulNewman]

I agree and noted that in my last post before I even read this one. NESAC thread/topic though. He does know his stuff. It's fun to get him excited though. Adds to great conversation and friendly debate. Had a little fun earlier. Don't worry it will be mostly business from here on out.  Who would you take in that game though if they did play? Kenyon or Case?

Shooter, I think Kenyon would handle Case pretty comfortably at Kenyon on grass.  I've watched Case several times, like them a lot, and I'm a fan pulling for them to get in the tournament, but I don't think they present a ton of danger outside of Cvecko.  Very solid defensively but my guess is that Kenyon's overall talent would break through.  Similar to Kenyon-CMU game, but probably lower scoring and final score was deceiving there as that really was a 4-2 game.  On the turf at Case I think would be more dicey with a higher chance for a draw.  Case needs the game as much as Kenyon but Case also has to get through a gauntlet in the last 3 UAA games, so they might not want an extra very difficult game at this late stage in the season.

[Shooter McGavin]

I like the analysis and agree. I watched 2 Case games this year. I think they have a boatload of potential which is why I tend to favor them as well. I also like Kenyon and think they can make a deep run in NCAA's. I would take Kenyon 2-1 on either field. Maybe a draw at Case as you mentioned.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

I agree and noted that in my last post before I even read this one. NESAC thread/topic though. He does know his stuff. It's fun to get him excited though. Adds to great conversation and friendly debate. Had a little fun earlier. Don't worry it will be mostly business from here on out.  Who would you take in that game though if they did play? Kenyon or Case?

Shooter, I think Kenyon would handle Case pretty comfortably at Kenyon on grass.  I've watched Case several times, like them a lot, and I'm a fan pulling for them to get in the tournament, but I don't think they present a ton of danger outside of Cvecko.  Very solid defensively but my guess is that Kenyon's overall talent would break through.  Similar to Kenyon-CMU game, but probably lower scoring and final score was deceiving there as that really was a 4-2 game.  On the turf at Case I think would be more dicey with a higher chance for a draw.  Case needs the game as much as Kenyon but Case also has to get through a gauntlet in the last 3 UAA games, so they might not want an extra very difficult game at this late stage in the season.

NCAC NE and Shooter,

Kenyon 3
Case 1

[Domino1195]

Denison continues to scratch and claw their way through the NCAC schedule. Not the best side in today's game, the beneficiary of a generous PK for their second goal. Their keeper did very well to secure their the point.

[Ryan Harmanis]

Kenyon Allegheny scoreless at half.  Almost nothing has happened.  Kenyon mis-hit a cross that glanced off the crossbar and Allegheny's GK took the ball off a Kenyon player's foot, but aside from that the game has been played in the midfield.  Kenyon has had more of the ball and territory, but no real cutting edge yet.  Allegheny isn't offering a ton going forward, but they're defending pretty well and trying to play a little bit.  Kenyon has come close to getting in behind when they've chosen to go direct, which may be their way to a breakthrough in the second half.

Kenyon takes a 1-0 lead early in the second half off a fortuitous deflection that completely wrongfooted the GK.  The goal had been coming, as the game is a little more open and Kenyon is getting deeper into the Allegheny end (and 18) with possession.  Hard to see Allegheny coming back.

2-0, free header from Amolo.  Allegheny had a little stretch of pressure, but that opened up the field and Kenyon put in a great cross, headed down and in from 8 yards out.  Game, set, match.

[Ryan Harmanis]

OWU-Oberlin kicks off in a torrential downpour.  Oberlin's field is top-notch, so hopefully it won't impact the game.  Slip count at 8 17 26 (including one by each goalkeeper) and picking up speed...

0-0 at half.  OWU put the squeeze on for the last 30 of the first half, but have created mostly half-chances.  It's like watching a hockey game - nobody can change direction, every pass has to be to feet because it's so slick.  But the field is holding up, and as players get tired it'll really favor the attacking players from each side and I'd expect someone to break the deadlock.

[Ryan Harmanis]

And Oberlin's GK has started to stand on his head.  Several shots from point blank range, keeper makes some spectacular saves.  Finishing could be better, but wow that was impressive.  Oberlin holding on right now, but still dangerous on the counter with the field conditions.

1-0 OWU.  There's the breakthrough.  Just a long free kick, flicked in.  Tough on Oberlin GK who has been really good, but fair on the balance of play so far.

Wow, Oberlin with the great chance.  OWU misjudges the ball and it falls to an Oberlin player on the back post, GK closes the angle, stands tall and makes the save with his face.  9 to play, but you have to wonder if that was Oberlin's chance.

[Ryan Harmanis]

OWU 1 Oberlin 0.  Kenyon and OWU square off Wednesday for the NCAC.  An OWU win clinches the NCAC outright and a draw means they only need to beat struggling Hiram for the NCAC outright.  A Kenyon win puts them in pole position for the crown.

**Edit because I can't do math.  If they draw and Kenyon wins next Saturday while OWU draws/loses, Kenyon wins the NCAC.