2015 Great Lakes Region

[PaulNewman]

I thought Kenyon looked pretty listless tonight, especially in the midfield where a couple of key players they really count on just looked off and had several inexplicable loose touches and/or giveaways.  Allegheny can be a tough place to play, but Kenyon did enough to get the win and remain alive in the conference race.  Watching a game on video, especially on a football field, is kind of a listless experience in itself and rarely gives you a good sense of what the action really is like live.

I watched most of the OWU game and they definitely were dominant in attack and also did enough to get the win.  Ingham for Oberlin had a couple of good chances in the last 10 minutes, ones that he normally will finish but the OWU GK did make a good play on the first one.  Even though they had to defend a ton, I was really impressed with how Oberlin played the game.  Almost to a fault, they keep playing soccer and passing the ball around even in their own defensive third.  Oberlin is a good team with some good young talent coming through.  The GK played great, as he did against Kenyon, and he rarely if ever punted the ball, consistent with Oberlin's style, but I always wonder if occasionally they might just need to whack the ball out of there just to relieve the pressure and catch their breath.  Wertman in the middle is really good and composed on the ball and I thought Chazin-Gray had a spectacular game at right back.  He made some really big plays/strips on the defensive end, including on Schaefer and Lee, and he also was one of Oberlin's most dangerous players when they could get on the other end.  They have some other nice players in the midfield who played with good composure under pressure.

I think DePauw dropping points today took some pressure off for the OWU-Kenyon tilt.  At worst, a loss to Kenyon would put OWU in 2nd and still in the driver's seat for the #2 slot and a playoff home game, and a Kenyon loss would result in the Lords still being ahead of DePauw for the #2 slot as long as they beat Wabash at home.  Of course both teams will try like heck to win the title, but a silver lining for the loser might be avoiding an away semi in Crawfordsville.  Unfortunately for Oberlin they probably needed Denison to lose and/or get a result tonight themselves.  The loss at home to Wabash really hurts them, but I still think they have a quality team as reflected by a draw with Case and two 1-0 losses to Kenyon and OWU.

Actually I guess Wabash is still very much alive but I think would need at least a split of a couple of tough away games, DePauw and Kenyon.  And Allegheny amazingly is still alive and have DePauw at home for the final game of season assuming they get a win at Wooster.  Denison still has work to do and they may have to beat Oberlin on the final day at home, which I do not think will be easy.

[PaulNewman]

Just noticed that Capital beat John Carroll tonight.  Big setback for John Carroll and out of nowhere Capital is now 5-1-1 in the OAC and has improved to 7-8-1.

[Ryan Harmanis]

Yes, I was very impressed with Oberlin.  I really like what Coach New has done with them and respect how he approaches the game.  I think the next step for them, aside from just continuing to increase the overall talent level, is to learn how to change pace and vary their play.  As you alluded to, they were committed to keeping the ball on the ground, but they couldn't get out of their own half until the last 10 minutes or so.  And their best chance came on a long diagonal ball, rather than the short passing game they'd been working.

Wabash still has to go to Kenyon and DePauw, so I'm thinking we're going to see Oberlin at Denison with fourth place and a spot in the NCAC playoffs on the line next Saturday.

[PaulNewman]

Yes, I was very impressed with Oberlin.  I really like what Coach New has done with them and respect how he approaches the game.  I think the next step for them, aside from just continuing to increase the overall talent level, is to learn how to change pace and vary their play.  As you alluded to, they were committed to keeping the ball on the ground, but they couldn't get out of their own half until the last 10 minutes or so.  And their best chance came on a long diagonal ball, rather than the short passing game they'd been working.

Wabash still has to go to Kenyon and DePauw, so I'm thinking we're going to see Oberlin at Denison with fourth place and a spot in the NCAC playoffs on the line next Saturday.

If so, that will be a great game.  Ryan Fine is a really key player for Denison and he was injured during OT.  The camera cut away for a long time and he did not return so that would be a really bad break for Denison if he is unable to go.  And you just never know for sure what DePauw will do.  Obviously will be strong favorites at home vs Wabash but that's the game they play for that Monen Ball thing or something, right?

[Domino1195]

Yes, I was very impressed with Oberlin.  I really like what Coach New has done with them and respect how he approaches the game.  I think the next step for them, aside from just continuing to increase the overall talent level, is to learn how to change pace and vary their play.  As you alluded to, they were committed to keeping the ball on the ground, but they couldn't get out of their own half until the last 10 minutes or so.  And their best chance came on a long diagonal ball, rather than the short passing game they'd been working.

Wabash still has to go to Kenyon and DePauw, so I'm thinking we're going to see Oberlin at Denison with fourth place and a spot in the NCAC playoffs on the line next Saturday.

If so, that will be a great game.  Ryan Fine is a really key player for Denison and he was injured during OT.  The camera cut away for a long time and he did not return so that would be a really bad break for Denison if he is unable to go.  And you just never know for sure what DePauw will do.  Obviously will be strong favorites at home vs Wabash but that's the game they play for that Monen Ball thing or something, right?

Did you see the back of my head? I was asked to move a couple times by the camera operator - me and a couple DePauw dads were practically arching backwards over the top railing so they could cover action down in the corner. Denison was really classless yesterday - constant bickering, foul language - you saw Russo get tossed. The ref did allow too much holding early on - but he was consistent in letting it go. When he complained after #7 got got yellow even some Denison fans were laughing as there was no doubt about the yellow. I think a less tolerant ref and DePauw wins that game 7 out of 10 times. I don't know if Oberlin will be willing to play a chippy game but that's what I expect they will get.

After a very difficult start, players leaving, starters out for the first 5 games Capital is playing good team ball. Guess it's better to end the season peaking -  second place is theirs to lose - Heidelberg on Wed will be very difficult.

[PaulNewman]

Yes, I was very impressed with Oberlin.  I really like what Coach New has done with them and respect how he approaches the game.  I think the next step for them, aside from just continuing to increase the overall talent level, is to learn how to change pace and vary their play.  As you alluded to, they were committed to keeping the ball on the ground, but they couldn't get out of their own half until the last 10 minutes or so.  And their best chance came on a long diagonal ball, rather than the short passing game they'd been working.

Wabash still has to go to Kenyon and DePauw, so I'm thinking we're going to see Oberlin at Denison with fourth place and a spot in the NCAC playoffs on the line next Saturday.

Wow, Domino, you do get around!  Can't recall as I watched a bunch of different games and there was one in particular where someone's head was getting in the way (actually maybe the OWU-Oberlin game).  Did it look like Fine (#12) for Denison was badly injured?  The situation itself, if it does turn out to be basically a play-in game for the 4th NCAC spot will be ripe for chippiness. Maybe not Oberlin's preference, but Coach New seems like he can hold his on (saw him and Brown going at it in the Kenyon game), and Ingham and Wertman as leaders of the team seem very willing to mix it up if needed.  Denison must feel a little chaotic and desperate right now....such a great start, stumbling down the stretch, the very high (maybe somewhat unexpected) regional ranking, and now at real risk of not even making the NCAC playoffs.  I haven't checked to see if that game is simultaneous with Wabash-Kenyon, in which case Oberlin-Denison might be connected to Wabash''s result.

Good luck to your Capital Crusaders!  And keep your insights coming as a neutral vis-a-vis your insights into the NCAC teams going forward.

If so, that will be a great game.  Ryan Fine is a really key player for Denison and he was injured during OT.  The camera cut away for a long time and he did not return so that would be a really bad break for Denison if he is unable to go.  And you just never know for sure what DePauw will do.  Obviously will be strong favorites at home vs Wabash but that's the game they play for that Monen Ball thing or something, right?

Did you see the back of my head? I was asked to move a couple times by the camera operator - me and a couple DePauw dads were practically arching backwards over the top railing so they could cover action down in the corner. Denison was really classless yesterday - constant bickering, foul language - you saw Russo get tossed. The ref did allow too much holding early on - but he was consistent in letting it go. When he complained after #7 got got yellow even some Denison fans were laughing as there was no doubt about the yellow. I think a less tolerant ref and DePauw wins that game 7 out of 10 times. I don't know if Oberlin will be willing to play a chippy game but that's what I expect they will get.

After a very difficult start, players leaving, starters out for the first 5 games Capital is playing good team ball. Guess it's better to end the season peaking -  second place is theirs to lose - Heidelberg on Wed will be very difficult.

[Domino1195]

Looking at changes to SOS from wek one to week two, ranked according to largest increases to largest decreases.

Institution	SOS week 1	SOS week 2	Overall WL Pct	Delta SOS
Mount Aloysius	0.414	0.459	11-5-1 ( 0.676)	0.045
Wooster	0.492	0.525	2-12-2 ( 0.188)	0.033
Muskingum	0.445	0.475	4-12-0 ( 0.250)	0.03
DePauw	0.544	0.571	9-2-4 ( 0.733)	0.027
Thiel	0.43	0.455	2-13-1 ( 0.156)	0.025
Hilbert	0.425	0.448	3-10-1 ( 0.250)	0.023
D'Youville	0.463	0.485	1-14-0 ( 0.067)	0.022
Hanover	0.485	0.506	10-6-1 ( 0.618)	0.021
Thomas More	0.516	0.537	14-1-1 ( 0.906)	0.021
La Roche	0.446	0.466	9-8-0 ( 0.529)	0.02
Bethany (WV)	0.478	0.495	5-10-2 ( 0.353)	0.017
Ohio Wesleyan	0.564	0.58	13-2-2 ( 0.824)	0.016
Heidelberg	0.528	0.54	6-7-4 ( 0.471)	0.012
Bluffton	0.397	0.409	0-13-2 ( 0.067)	0.012
Capital	0.533	0.543	7-8-1 ( 0.469)	0.01
Penn St.-Altoona	0.391	0.401	11-4-2 ( 0.706)	0.01
Baldwin Wallace	0.454	0.463	4-11-3 ( 0.306)	0.009
Berea	0.452	0.459	1-7-0 ( 0.125)	0.007
Allegheny	0.58	0.585	4-9-2 ( 0.333)	0.005
Carnegie Mellon	0.541	0.546	9-2-3 ( 0.750)	0.005
Penn St.-Behrend	0.447	0.451	14-2-1 ( 0.853)	0.004
Saint Vincent	0.454	0.458	2-14-2 ( 0.167)	0.004
Hiram	0.535	0.538	6-7-3 ( 0.469)	0.003
Rose-Hulman	0.549	0.552	10-2-4 ( 0.750)	0.003
Geneva	0.539	0.541	9-4-3 ( 0.656)	0.002
Earlham	0.493	0.494	7-6-1 ( 0.536)	0.001
Mt. St. Joseph	0.485	0.486	6-9-1 ( 0.406)	0.001
Medaille	0.474	0.472	11-5-1 ( 0.676)	-0.002
Denison	0.578	0.575	10-2-3 ( 0.767)	-0.003
Marietta	0.52	0.517	8-8-1 ( 0.500)	-0.003
Ohio Northern	0.506	0.502	14-4-0 ( 0.778)	-0.004
Westminster (PA)	0.508	0.504	8-5-3 ( 0.594)	-0.004
Kenyon	0.494	0.489	13-1-0 ( 0.929)	-0.005
Oberlin	0.551	0.546	9-6-1 ( 0.594)	-0.005
Pitt.-Bradford	0.458	0.453	1-13-1 ( 0.100)	-0.005
Transylvania	0.474	0.468	7-3-6 ( 0.625)	-0.006
Franklin	0.497	0.491	6-8-2 ( 0.438)	-0.006
Wittenberg	0.583	0.577	3-11-3 ( 0.265)	-0.006
Manchester	0.501	0.493	4-6-5 ( 0.433)	-0.008
Wilmington (OH)	0.547	0.539	4-13-0 ( 0.235)	-0.008
Grove City	0.535	0.525	10-5-1 ( 0.656)	-0.01
Waynesburg	0.51	0.496	1-14-1 ( 0.094)	-0.014
Defiance	0.435	0.418	6-9-1 ( 0.406)	-0.017
Pitt.-Greensburg	0.48	0.46	4-11-1 ( 0.281)	-0.02
CWRU	0.523	0.503	12-2-1 ( 0.833)	-0.02
John Carroll	0.546	0.524	10-4-1 ( 0.700)	-0.022
Mount Union	0.462	0.44	8-6-1 ( 0.567)	-0.022
Wabash	0.511	0.487	11-3-2 ( 0.750)	-0.024
Franciscan	0.471	0.445	6-10-1 ( 0.382)	-0.026
Otterbein	0.517	0.491	8-5-3 ( 0.594)	-0.026
Wash. & Jeff.	0.495	0.462	9-5-2 ( 0.625)	-0.033
Anderson (IN)	0.537	0.498	3-9-4 ( 0.313)	-0.039

[Ryan Harmanis]

Since most of the conversation centered on Thomas More and Kenyon, my quick thoughts. 

(1) A bit surprised TM jumped all the way to #1, but very understandable.  With RvR included and the jump in SoS, TM beats OWU on win%, RvR, and head-to-head, so OWU's big (but not as big) SoS advantage isn't enough.

(2) I don't think Kenyon is in as much trouble as the low ranking suggests.  The fact that Kenyon is ranked at all is a sign of respect from the committee, because their SOS is easily the lowest of any ranked team - men's or women's - and they're only one of two ranked teams below 0.500.  My thought process:

(a) Domino's stats showed SoS can jump in a single week.  Kenyon plays @ OWU tonight - the best possible SoS game you could get - and then gets Wabash (decent win%) at home.  Include the NCAC tournament, and I'm predicting Kenyon's SoS gets up to at least the 0.510 range, probably higher.  At least in the ballpark of the low-end SoS teams from previous years.

(b) Carnegie Mellon is now ranked.  If Kenyon wins tonight, they'll be 3-1-0 versus ranked teams next week, plus the SOS bump.

(c) If Kenyon loses/draws, odds are they're @ OWU for the conference final.  Two more games against DePauw and @ OWU bump the SoS even higher.  So a draw is not a bad result at all tonight.  Yes, OWU probably wins the regular season, but a rematch @ OWU means another SoS bump.  Then if Kenyon loses the AQ they'd finish 15-2-1 (or 15-3-0 if they lose tonight), with a RvR of 3-2-1 (or 3-3-0) and an SoS in the 0.520 ballpark.  TM and Rose-Hulman probably get AQs or drop, OWU gets the AQ, and Kenyon could pass Denison/DePauw/CMU based on head-to-head and an increased SoS.  That would make Kenyon top of the GL for at-large consideration.

[Ryan Harmanis]

Here we go.  No. 2 Kenyon (13-1-0, 6-1-0) @ No. 17 Ohio Wesleyan (13-2-2, 6-0-1).  Delaware got a decent amount of rain but much less than expected, and it's been dry there for a few hours and no rain for the rest of the evening.  The field has been in great shape all year, so hopefully it holds up and lets these guys play.

1-0 Kenyon very early.  First attack of note, Kenyon gets the end line and drills one off the post, rebound to Amolo who puts it in the corner, nice finish.  Can't ask for a better start if you're Kenyon.  Ball is moving well so field looks playable.

[TennesseeJed]

Sorry to see a player injured and down early in the game.  Hopefully, it won't be as serious as it appears it may be on the video feed. 

[TennesseeJed]

Delaware got a decent amount of rain but much less than expected, and it's been dry there for a few hours and no rain for the rest of the evening.  The field has been in great shape all year, so hopefully it holds up and lets these guys play.  Ball is moving well so field looks playable.

Looks quite windy from the flag, trees and fence!

[Ryan Harmanis]

Looks quite windy from the flag, trees and fence!

And now here comes some rain.  Shows you what I know - or rather what the Weather Channel knows.

[Ryan Harmanis]

1-1 now.  Long diagonal ball, one mistake and OWU scores.  Game is pretty open at the moment, going to make for a lot of scoring opportunities, especially with the elements.

Also looks like OWU has the wind (although it's hard to tell).  There's a wind screen around the field which lessens it when the ball is on the ground, but anything in the air right now is being affected

[Ryan Harmanis]

Jed have you been spending some time with the camera man?  Looks a little wobbly...

[Mr.Right]

God Jay Martin looks about 90 years old....His time has gotta be coming...