2015 Great Lakes Region

[TennesseeJed]

Jed have you been spending some time with the camera man?  Looks a little wobbly...

I am 800 miles away, about to pass out from dizziness after trying to watch the first half...   I'd definitely recommend someone at OWU give the cameraman a streaming under the influence test--I think your instinct about his condition is spot on.

[Ryan Harmanis]

1-1 at the half.  Not much in the last 20 minutes of the half, although Clougher saved Kenyon's bacon with a couple minutes left.  Threw himself at the feet of an OWU player free from 8 yards out, sure goal if he didn't get a touch.  Kenyon possessed a little bit better, but OWU generated more action in front of goal.

[Mr.Right]

OWU as usual looks very athletic and I like their CB but Kenyon looks to have team speed in a lot of places...Their GK made a nice save but looks awkward to me like he would have a tough time getting to the ground fast enough, kinda like Bull

[Ryan Harmanis]

2-1 Kenyon.  Another slip/bad touch - almost exactly what happened for Ohio Wesleyan's goal - and Kenyon find themselves back in front.

General quality of the game has dropped substantially this half.  Much more direct from both sides, lots of fouls and slipping.

The most active players have been the goalkeepers - and not in the good way, as each team, particularly Kenyon with the lead, keep playing the ball backward.  Kenyon is doing a nice job squeezing the life out of the game.

[Ryan Harmanis]

Final: Kenyon 2, Ohio Wesleyan 1.  I'd say a fair result based on the second half - Kenyon didn't do a whole lot going forward, but they kept OWU from creating anything in attack.  And in a game with two pretty even teams mistakes are often the difference.  Watching it, my biggest thought is that it's going to be very, very difficult for teams to come back on Kenyon. 

That was not a pretty game to watch, and I don't mean that because of the result.  My general test for the quality of a game is fouls versus shots.  Total fouls 35, total shots 32, SOG 11.  So yea, not very good for the neutral.  But both teams are capable of playing, and I would imagine that under different circumstances in the next few weeks we'll see better soccer.

Unless Kenyon drops points, they'll win the NCAC outright for the first time since 2007.  Even a draw will be good enough for homefield advantage in the NCAC playoffs.  DePauw beat Wabash and has probably sealed third, and Oberlin won as well.  Oberlin and Denison are tied in 4th place, and Oberlin will play @ Denison on Saturday with fourth place and a probable trip to Kenyon on the line.  Kenyon should be in good shape in the NCAA rankings with the SoS bump and 3-1 RvR for the next rankings.

OWU, on the other hand, is in a tough position.  The SoS should remain about the highest in the region, but going into next week the RvR will probably still be 1-2-1 (or 1-3-1 if Ohio Northern makes it back in).  They probably need to beat DePauw in the conference semis to get to 15 wins and two wins versus ranked to feel good about a bid.  The bigger concern is that the guy who dislocated his shoulder was a starting CB, and him going down meant OWU moved their target forward into the back four.  (Note: this is not meant to take anything away from Kenyon, more a commentary on how OWU will need to adjust going forward).  It's also a huge bummer, as the injured player is a really talented kid who was a starter on the 2011 national championship team and has been snakebitten by injuries every season since, including this year as a redshirt senior.  I really hope tonight wasn't his last time on the field.

[PaulNewman]

Not pretty at all, but big win for Kenyon....almost a must win, although I did like RH's scenario for Kenyon upping the SOS if they lost or drew because of getting another likely away game with OWU.  Also important that all of the young guys for Kenyon got the jitters out and managed to get through their first true test on a big stage.  Only one good goal in the game.  Kenyon with probably same number of yellows as Amherst today so might have to eat my words on that but thought the ref got a little crazy.  Brown did a good job getting Amolo on the ball early and into the game by playing him a little deeper than usual and I thought Carmona played a really strong game.  The Kenyon CBs were good and the defense overall very solid except for the 1st half miscue.  Seemed like Kenyon and maybe both teams had a hard time figuring out what pace to play the ball on a slowed surface, as Kenyon left passes short in the 1st half and then overplayed them quite a bit in 2nd half.  Kenyon almost scored a couple of times on the counter in the 2nd half to get an insurance goal but OWU GK made big saves, one in particular at point blank range.

Feel really, really bad for OWU's Hoge.  Seems like he's been at OWU forever but that's because of prior serious injuries.  Not the way you want to see a player like that who has worked so hard go out assuming he can't return.  And hurts OWU somewhat going forward as Hoge gave them flexibility to keep Lee up top.

[TennesseeJed]

Sorry to see a player injured and down early in the game.  Hopefully, it won't be as serious as it appears it may be on the video feed.

Hats off to Mason Hoge of OWU and best wishes for a speedy and complete recovery.

[PaulNewman]

Very happy Oberlin is getting a shot on Saturday.  Denison has home field but barely got by Wittenberg while Oberlin romped.  That will be a fascinating game.  Hopefully Kenyon will not let down against Wabash especially Wabash handed them their only loss until the 3rd OWU game last year.

[PaulNewman]

And Capital just keeps on winning.

Juniet for TMC pads his stats with 2 more goals and 2 more assists in rout of Bethany.

[Domino1195]

And Capital just keeps on winning.

Juniet for TMC pads his stats with 2 more goals and 2 more assists in rout of Bethany.

Not a thing of beauty for sure. Two set pieces - two header goals. Heidelberg started 5,6 freshmen? Tenacious pursuit of the ball - pressured and caused turnovers the entire game. I can see how they beat ONU.

Capital has done a good job limiting quality looks at goal these last two games. Shots conceded have been from long range and from the flanks. Lost a key starter to a season ending injury (stress fracture - not from this evening) and another who played sparingly tonight. But win on Sat and they'll finish no worse than second.

The change in SOS was interesting to me as I was looking for the impact from teams who dropped points and saw their SOS drop as well as those they played. Example - Otterbein and their impact on teams like Kenyon. Kenyon takes care of business but feels the impact of previously beaten opponents like Otterbein (who very surprisingly lost at home to Marietta tonight)

[TennesseeJed]

The Kenyon Lords left Delaware, OH with a big W vs. OWU on OWU's home turf.  It was, as expected, a hard fought game on both sides.  I thought OWU stuck to their passing game a bit better in 1H and really struggled to find their mojo in 2H, as Kenyon continued to find effective ways to thwart most of their offensive attacking opportunities.  Kenyon, who has many times this year been back on their heels and down a goal before they found their stride, got the early scoring lead on OWU in both halves.  Kenyon had a few decent scoring opportunities in 2H, and could have arguably made it a 3-1 game, had they been a bit more composed near the OWU box, but they weren't able to convert more than 1 in 2H, winning by a one goal margin.

The very unfortunate injury to OWU senior starter Mason Hoge aside, I thought the game had all the qualities of a conference championship game.  It wasn't as exciting as the tournament final in Delaware last year IMO, but nevertheless it was still a battle from minute 0 through 90, and I fully expected it to go into OT.  I don't think I've seen a much closer, more evenly matched game in the NCAC (including out of conf games by both teams) this year. 

Hope that someone in the NCAA regional committee was watching the game and taking note.  I don't think hardly any observer could walk away from that game and conclude that the NCAA's current process is effectively capturing regional ranks, at least in the GL region...  This was definitely more like a regional semi-final match, with 2 teams in the top 3 duking it out for top dog, IMO...  Hope that the NCAA is open minded enough that its regional ranking process will continue to evolve.  This was just one great example--but by no means the only one we'll see in D3 soccer over the next week--that SoS, as currently calculated, isn't sufficiently informative to be so heavily weighted in regional rankings.

[Domino1195]

Interesting match-ups on the final regular season day for the OAC:

• John Carroll at Muskingum.  JC has sealed 3rd place - win or lose Saturday does not impact either JC or Muskingum's postseason placement
• Otterbein and Mt Union play at Otterbein for the 6th and final tournament spot - winner takes it. Otterbein could have clinched a spot last night but lost at home to Marietta 2-0.  Actually, an Otterbein win and losses by Marietta and Heidelberg would give them 4th place, so they have a lot to play for!
• Marietta hosts ONU.  An ONU victory and first place is theirs.  A Marietta victory would give them 4th place and home field advantage for their tourney game next week
• Capital hosts Baldwin Wallace.  A win secures second place and a first round bye; a win and a ONU loss puts them in first
• Heidelberg visits Wilmington. A Heidelberg win and and Marietta loss gives Heidelberg 4th spot in the tournament.

[Flying Weasel]

You make it sound like John Carroll couldn't move up to second.  Why can't they?  If they win, they are 7-2-0.  If Capital losses, they are 6-2-1.

[Domino1195]

You make it sound like John Carroll couldn't move up to second.  Why can't they?  If they win, they are 7-2-0.  If Capital losses, they are 6-2-1.

Yes - an error.  Counting chickens perhaps???

[PaulNewman]

With the passage of time, a bit of embarrassment at my initial wild reactions because of being caught so off guard in week # 1 of the rankings, and the medicinal effects of a critical win, I think I'm now able to consider Kenyon's SoS situation with a modicum of rationality.

First, this had never been a problem for Kenyon before, at least in the most recent years.  If memory serves the Lords since I've been following have been in the .550 to .570 or so range.  Nothing stood out to me at the beginning of this year about their schedule that looked significantly different than any other year.  I was glad they were playing CMU after playing in Pittsburgh the year before, and I was pleased to see them playing Case Western, a new opponent for them from an excellent conference who was supposed to have a good year.  What I did not know, or had never really paid attention to, were the costs of home games, because, as a parent, I actually had silently cursed the coach for so few home games in the preceding 2 years.  My first reaction as a parent would be excitement about having more home games than usual.  Now of course I see that completely differently, but that also is part of why I don't like that multiplier, which I've expressed previously, as there are several reasons why all of us (players, coaches, parents, fans, etc) want our teams to have a fair share of home games.

I also knew that Coach Brown had just been the cmte chair for several years and so I could not imagine him being caught in the predicament that unfolded.  I think he did have bad luck and a few impossible-to-account-for eventualities conspiring together to deflate the SoS, but certainly Kenyon has some responsibility.  I can't lie.  It was embarrassing both of the last two weeks, and especially yesterday when the Lords clearly had the lowest SoS out of all ranked teams.  Geez, even my boys out at Whitworth got over .500.  That said, I think there was indeed some element of bad luck and which leaves an impression that is deceptive and probably distorted.

Not only did Kenyon have fewer away games this year, but the records of those away teams (until last night) generally have been just abysmal and at least some would not have been anticipated (at least to the degree) -- Waynesburg at 2-14-1, Centre at 7-8-1, Muskingum at 4-13, Wittenberg at 3-12-3, Wooster at 3-12-2, Hiram at 6-8-3, and Allegheny at 4-10-2.  The teams with better records all ended up being home games -- Otterbein at 8-6-3, Heidelberg at 6-8-4 (lower than expected), CMU at 9-2-3 (good record but UAA schools play less games so not 11 or 12 wins), DePauw at 10-2-4, Denison at 11-2-3, and yet to play Wabash at 11-4-2.  So certainly not-so-great records could have been expected for some of those away and home games, but how bad some of them turned out at the extreme end would not have been expected.  Also, and this isn't Kenyon's fault, it turned out that all of the in-conference NCAC teams with good records were home games (DePauw, Denison, Oberlin, Wabash) with the single exception of OWU.  So while it's a bonus to play better teams at home (in terms of advantage to win) there is the high cost of how the multipliers work.

I know there has been discussion of what is the lowest SoS for Pool C's that have gotten in before, and we've discussed the situations of John Carroll last year and maybe Luther, but I don't know how many times we've had a situation where really deserving (by general consensus) teams didn't get in by virtue of the SoS alone (as I think JCU's situation was different as to why they got snubbed).  In other words, yes, the lowest team to get in last year might have been at .515 or whatever, but were there teams that didn't get in due to SoS that almost everyone thought should get in?  That's a little bit different question, and I'd be interested in whether this year is a little unique in this way.  I think FW may have mentioned a team like Swat a number of years ago being ranked #1 nationally but being at risk. Amherst likely will hold on to their #1 spot, but at least in theory we could see a team ranked #1 in the country by one of the major polls while still being ranked #7 in their own region.

A few related odds and ends.  1) As I noted in the UAA thread, in regard to how much teams should have accounted for SoS, the two teams with a real predicament in terms of SoS in Great Lakes have been Kenyon and Case.  Let's think about that.  The exiting regional cmte chair was Brown, the Kenyon coach.  The current chair is Bianco, the Case coach.  You would think those two guys are pretty clued in, and that maybe the method of calculation is questionable.  2) Is home field advantage that big of deal in D3, aside from Messiah, OWU, and maybe Loras and a few others?  I mean, it's not like going into Rupp Arena and trying to knock off the Wildcats.  3) Kenyon, OWU and DePauw all have only lost one game in conference -- ALL AT HOME.

And, btw, I can also better see now how the criteria, as they are, really do put the cmtes in a bind.  And as I suggested in the UAA thread, even two games can really swing the SoS.  For Case, take away Waynesburg and add Kenyon and you get a huge 25 games swing without even counting the away multiplier.