2015 Great Lakes Region

[PaulNewman]

RH, do you know who would have tie-breaker in Den-Obe draw?

[PaulNewman]

Kenyon barely survives against Wabash AT HOME in just a very poor, immature performance.  Needed a 2nd PK awarded to win in 2nd OT 2-1.  Amolo missed a PK in 1st half on a very soft call.  Then Carmona, who I have praised all year and should be a top candidate for NCAC ROY with teammate Lowry, seemingly tried to gift a goal by shielding a ball out that was never going out while Clougher was way out of the net and Wabash hit the post.  Literally within 5 minutes Carmona played a ball back very high in the air to Clougher who again was caught unawares and that one Wabash put in to go up 1-0.  The last two goals Kenyon has given up have been assisted by Kenyon.  Thought they would have learned from the OWU game.  Playing the ball back and using the GK is fine but you can't be sloppy, leave ball well short, or hit balls back to the GK that are too difficult to handle.  Passes throughout the game were sloppy and inaccurate by MANY players with frequent poor decisions and loss of the ball in bad spots.  Thank goodness Barnes scored on the 2nd PK.  I think that's his first goal of the year, which is astounding and he obviously is playing hard but seems just a bit out of rhythm or looking to make some spectacular play instead of just shooting when he right around or inside the box.  I could go on but I won't.  They end up winning the NCAC outright but if they play anywhere close to how they played today Oberlin will beat them 3-1.  This is a young team, with only one senior, but the junior class has been through the wars and should know the level of performance needed.  Just not sure they can rise to and sustain the levels of urgency and sharpness to win 3-4 NCAA games in a row or even 2 straight NCAC playoff games.

I would be remiss if I didn't mention Wabash's junior GK, Dayton Jennings, out of Noblesville, IN, who kept Wabash in the game with some nice saves and plays cutting out balls coming through the box.  He comfortably saved the 1st PK and nearly made a play on the 2nd one as he guessed correctly but the ball was blasted into the corner.  Definitely one of the better GKs in the NCAC.

[PaulNewman]

Ohio Northern crushed Marietta 6-0 and is 16-4.  Hard to imagine they won't be ranked.  That would help Case Western (and Brockport St) and hurt OWU.  Also will have to see what happens with Denison in terms of rankings.  Their situation now virtually identical to that of RPI.

[PaulNewman]

Where are we at in Great Lakes?  These are the teams as best I can figure that still have life (even if that life may be short-lived).  Teams in bold are ones in my estimation that have at least a pulse for a Pool C.  Others must win AQ.

Kenyon
OWU
DePauw
Oberlin

Carnegie Mellon
Case Western

Thomas More
Geneva
Grove City
Westminster (PA)

Ohio Northern
Capital
John Carroll
Heidelberg
Marietta
Mt Union

Rose-Hulman
Hanover
Earlham
Transy

Mt Aloysius
PS-Behrend

Still ranked -- Denison???

So that's 8 teams in bold, which matches the number of regional ranking slots.  Only question would seem to be whether Denison remains ranked and keeps one of those 8 out.  Whether Denison and Case Western remain ranked, and whether Ohio Northern gains a ranking, will also impact at least a few of the other ranked/bolded teams on RvR.  We'll know more after tomorrow's results for CMU and Case.  Any combination of Oberlin winning AQ and TMC, RHIT, and ONU not winning AQs would really make the picture chaotic and (and really depressing for at least a couple of teams).

[wingtips2]

Can we get the conference playoff homepage to reflect the fact that NCAC AQ goes to the team winning the tournament and not the regular season?

[Christan Shirk]

Can we get the conference playoff homepage to reflect the fact that NCAC AQ goes to the team winning the tournament and not the regular season?

The NCAC Champion is crowned based on regular season and that is what the "Conference Champions" table at the top of the Conference Championship Central web page is listing: the conference champions.  At the bottom of the page we have a second table, "NCAA Tournament Automatic Berths" which lists the AQ's.  We have an italicized note right above the Conference Champions list at the top which mentions that the championship and the AQ aren't always one and the same, and that there's a second table at the bottom for the AQ's.

[Domino1195]

Any combination of Oberlin winning AQ and TMC, RHIT, and ONU not winning AQs would really make the picture chaotic and (and really depressing for at least a couple of teams).

Here' hoping!

I think Denison lost their chance yesterday. Their theme song for the past two weeks seems to have been "Flirtin' with Disaster" - luck ran out yesterday.

I think SOS for teams that played Otterbein, for example, will be impacted negatively. I thought Mt. Union would give them a game yesterday. They started 10 sophomores earlier in the year - and they could be a pain for John Carroll on Tuesday (it took JCU 75 minutes to get the goal in their 1-0 win over Mt. Union last week). Otterbein had some key injuries - two starting defenders missed the last couple of games.

Cap gets a first round bye for only the fourth time in school history. Not scoring a lot but much improved defensively. ONU and JCU had "statement" games yesterday - ONU by three barely 20 minutes in. Let the third season begin . . .

[Ryan Harmanis]

My thoughts/predictions:

-Ohio Northern will not be ranked.  Their SoS was only 0.502 last week, and they played Baldwin Wallace (4-13-3) at home and Marietta (9-9-1) on the road.  That's going to put their SoS below 0.500, and they don't have anything resembling Kenyon's win% or RvR to deserve a ranking.  On that note, the OAC is a one-bid league IMO.

-I don't think Rose-Hulman can get an at-large bid.  Kenyon is going to jump them, DePauw probably will too, if Carnegie Mellon wins today they will as well, and Rose-Hulman's SoS is going to tank because they just played Anderson (3-11-4) and Bluffton (0-15-2).

-Carnegie Mellon has a chance to jump big time if they win today.  That would give them three ranked wins, and games at Wash U. and at Chicago will give the SoS a big boost.  Case is probably done, unless they win both remaining games and get some help elsewhere I don't think they can jump enough.

-In the NCAC, I think Denison is done.  Having said that, I'm guessing they remain ranked - I just don't know who's going to pass them.  If they drop out, the team that hurts the most is Kenyon from a RvR perspective.

-Kenyon will jump, and although a conference semis loss would hurt because it would keep the SoS pretty low, the wins versus ranked, win% and winning the NCAC should mean they're probably already guaranteed a spot.

-The winner of DePauw-OWU on Wednesday should be sitting pretty for Pool C, as that's another win versus a ranked team and a (probable) trip to Kenyon to boost the SoS even further.  The loser will be firmly on the bubble, especially because Carnegie is playing their way up the rankings.  If you're the NCAC, Carnegie is your biggest worry.

-Everyone in the Great Lakes wants/needs Thomas More to win the AQ, otherwise that's taking an at-large bid away from the other teams in the region.

[PaulNewman]

My thoughts/predictions:

-Ohio Northern will not be ranked.  Their SoS was only 0.502 last week, and they played Baldwin Wallace (4-13-3) at home and Marietta (9-9-1) on the road.  That's going to put their SoS below 0.500, and they don't have anything resembling Kenyon's win% or RvR to deserve a ranking.  On that note, the OAC is a one-bid league IMO.

-I don't think Rose-Hulman can get an at-large bid.  Kenyon is going to jump them, DePauw probably will too, if Carnegie Mellon wins today they will as well, and Rose-Hulman's SoS is going to tank because they just played Anderson (3-11-4) and Bluffton (0-15-2).

-Carnegie Mellon has a chance to jump big time if they win today.  That would give them three ranked wins, and games at Wash U. and at Chicago will give the SoS a big boost.  Case is probably done, unless they win both remaining games and get some help elsewhere I don't think they can jump enough.

-In the NCAC, I think Denison is done.  Having said that, I'm guessing they remain ranked - I just don't know who's going to pass them.  If they drop out, the team that hurts the most is Kenyon from a RvR perspective.

-Kenyon will jump, and although a conference semis loss would hurt because it would keep the SoS pretty low, the wins versus ranked, win% and winning the NCAC should mean they're probably already guaranteed a spot.

-The winner of DePauw-OWU on Wednesday should be sitting pretty for Pool C, as that's another win versus a ranked team and a (probable) trip to Kenyon to boost the SoS even further.  The loser will be firmly on the bubble, especially because Carnegie is playing their way up the rankings.  If you're the NCAC, Carnegie is your biggest worry.

-Everyone in the Great Lakes wants/needs Thomas More to win the AQ, otherwise that's taking an at-large bid away from the other teams in the region.

RH, agree with your analysis overall.  RE: ONU.... I hadn't checked their SoS (assumed it would be decent because of OWU, Case, the New England trip, etc).  So I agree about actually getting a Pool C, but I'm less sure about whether they won't be ranked because there are 8 slots and somebody has got to fill them.  If either Denison or Case drops out, or both, then who would you seeing filling a spot other than ONU?  PS-Behrend?  Oberlin?

[Ryan Harmanis]

I doubt Denison drops out, but good point on the possibility of Case, especially if they lose today.  Hmmmm, maybe ONU gets a spot then?  PSU-Behrend isn't making it with zero games versus ranked teams and an SoS below .475.  So I guess if somebody drops ONU is the only logical team to replace them.  Let's compare profiles assuming Case loses today, because if they win they're staying in over ONU:

Case (loss today): 12-4-1 (0.735), SoS 0.525 (bump from last week), RvR 1-4-0, head-to-head win over ONU.
Denison: 11-3-3 (0.735), SoS 0.565 (slight drop from last week), RvR 1-1-2, head-to-head loss versus Oberlin.
ONU: 16-4-0 (0.800), SoS 0.490 (drop from last week), RvR 1-1-0, head-to-head loss versus Case.
Oberlin: 11-6-1 (0.639), SoS 0.550 (about the same), RvR 1-4-1, head-to-head win over Denison, draw versus case.

I don't see how Denison drops below ONU because of the enormous SoS gap.  I also think Oberlin's win% is too low to get it into the conversation for this week's rankings.  That really brings us to Case versus ONU.  ONU has a slight win% edge.  Case has a slight SoS edge, but it's made greater because ONU's SoS is below the dreaded 0.500 mark.  Both teams have one win versus ranked opponents - my understanding is they only really look at wins - although ONU maybe has a slight edge because they've only lost once to a ranked opponent.  Then again, Case's only losses would be to ranked teams, whereas ONU has lost to three unranked teams, so let's say that's a wash.  Case has the head-to-head, which settles it IMO.

That's really just a long-winded way to say that you're probably right that ONU (or possibly longshot Oberlin) are the only real options to replace Case or Denison, but I doubt it happens.

[PaulNewman]

The Kenyon Review (get it?)

I stand by the critique of yesterday's performance, but now a few words on the bigger picture. 

I expected Kenyon to have another strong season but so far (the hullabaloo with the SoS notwithstanding), the Lords have exceeded expectations.  Or rather, perhaps better put, the way they have done it this year is a real surprise.  The huge question coming into the year was how Kenyon would or could replace their entire back four, or, as the players have suggested, the back five (inclusive of the holding mid), that was one of the best back lines in the country a year ago.  As it happens, Kenyon's back line probably has performed better and certainly more consistently than any group on the team.  Brown converted two sophomore attacking mids, Myers and Wynn, to the back line, added a frosh, Lowry, at CB who has had a remarkably outstanding season, and had returning junior and sophomore natural left and right backs, Resnekov and O'Neill, who were regular subs a year ago.  Even with the junior left back out with illness the back line has had hardly a stumble all season.  Clougher, the D3soccer.com GK of the year a year ago, has been good but not as great as last year.  He may have been the player most impacted by an entirely new back line early in the season, but lately its really been misplays between him and the midfield that have led to occasional blips.  The strength of the team coming into this year was supposed to be the returning front five.  The forwards generally have been very good, with Amolo having another strong campaign and Glassman and Jeon combining to produce good numbers at the other forward slot.  The midfield, which I expected to be one of the top midfields on the country, has been the most inconsistent part of the team.  There certainly have been moments of brilliance, but from my vantage point they have yet to play their best all at the same time.  Carmona, the young frosh star, consistently has been very good, although I'd love to see him more consistently involved and creating in attack with less reliance on playing balls back to the back line and GK.  Early in the season Lee seemed complacent to me, but in the last handful of games he has really come on and become a top performer.  He is a key player for Kenyon who needs to play well and with high intensity (but with focus and under control).  Eudy, a D1 transfer who had a pretty good year last year, I think has struggled a bit finding where in the midfield he can be most effective.  He has a high soccer IQ/vision with excellent distribution skills but his overall impact at times seems to wax and wane.  I am sure Barnes has been exceptional in his roles as the lone senior and leader of the squad, but perhaps those duties have been a drag on his end product on the field.  He is for my money one of the top players in the NCAC and a player I expected to have an AA-worthy type of season.  Bottom line is that how far Kenyon goes will ride heavily on whether the midfielders can get fully in sync and raise their level, and then sustain that over a number of games in a row.  Carmona needs to be outstanding and clean in his play with no lapses (i.e. not play like a frosh), Lee needs to continue playing well with high intensity and smart decisions, and Eudy and Barnes need their play to reflect their talents.  One plus from the Wabash game is that frosh Anderson played very well in the midfield, and Kenyon has been needing a reliable and effective sub in an attacking mid role.  The good news is that so far no team has made Kenyon look like the inferior team on the field.  Aside from OWU, which I would characterize as within the range of "even," Kenyon has significantly outplayed every opponent including in the OT loss to DePauw.

Two wild card players for other teams in my scouting report.  I'll credit myself for highlighting Oberlin's Chazin-Gray after the OWU game, as he made the play to create the header for Wertman in OT at Denison.  Really good player that a team might not fully account for because he's at right back.  His service from the right side after deep runs is outstanding.   And for OWU, among several others more expected, the player who always scares me and is a risk to create something really dangerous is Nick Norman.  He did it last night, with a "marauding run" into the box (as the announcer termed it) to draw a PK against Hiram.  He seems to float between left back and left mid, but if you don't cut him off early he's going to penetrate very deep and put you under heavy pressure.  And then there is Gonzalez for DePauw who can win a game by himself with a sudden strike.

[PaulNewman]

Juniet now sitting on 16 G and 22 A.  Teammate Runyon on 17 G and 10 A.

[TennesseeJed]

Rose Hulman and Hanover are tied for 1st in the HCAC at 7-0-2 each in conf records and they tied in their season head-to-head match up.  2015 Champ. Central lists both as regular season champs.  I went and looked on the HCAC site and can't find any info about the awarding of conf champs.  Are there no secondary criteria for determining the season champ outside of conf record?  RH has a stronger overall season record.  Just curious if the listing on conf central is definitive or not.  Peculiar to me too that Hanover is listed as the #1 seed for the HCAC tourney, given the same info above and their lower overall record, but perhaps that doesn't matter?

[Christan Shirk]

Sometimes it is very difficult to tell who is considered a conference's champion.  And it almost seems like some conferences allow for two teams to call themselves champions in the same year: one a regular season champion, one a tournament champion.  However, for the HCAC, we at D3soccer.com have been under the impression that the conference champion is the highest regular season team.  Look at the program for the 2014 tournament final: http://static.psbin.com/l/o/4tfkq0d9fidloi/14_msoccer_program_2.pdf  Note the list of Annual Conference Champions.  If you look through the archives, that matches with the top regular season finishers, NOT with the tournament winners.  And note occurrences of co-champions as we have again this year (ref. https://www.hanover.edu/athletics/news?article=6078 and http://athletics.rose-hulman.edu/sports/msoc/2015-16/releases/20151031qbywuw). Here's the comparison for the years 2019 - 2013 just to illustrate.

Year	Annual Champion	1st Reg. Season	Tourn. Winner/AQ
2014	Earlham	Earlham	Rose-Hulman
2013	Earlham	Earlham	Rose-Hulman
2012	Transy./RHIT	Transy./RHIT	Transylvania
2011	Transylvania	Transylvania	Rose-Hulman
2010	Transylvania	Transylvania	Transylvania
2009	Rose-Hulman	Rose-Hulman	Transylvania

We at D3soccer.com certainly try our best to be as accurate as possible and try to do our due diligence on issues like this.  But we are far from infallible and we welcome (encourage, really) your corrections when we have an error.  In this case I think we have it right, but I can't be 100% sure give some conflicting language/terminology used the HCAC).  And we are far from certain about the NEAC, for example.  Is their champion the top regular season team or the tournament winner?  Very hard to tell from their website.

[TennesseeJed]

Thanks Christian.  I think we're in total agreement that their Conf champ is the regular season winner and that their AQ is based on the HCAC tournament champion, similar to the NCAC and others who split Conf champ and Aq to Conf tournament champ.

My question was more about whether there were definitely two HCAC men's regular season Conf champs this year or just one. I wasn't sure if both were listed because they were tied and it wasn't clear who won yet or because they both won and are sharing the title. I was also just asking whether anyone had any info on how the HCAC handles ties because I couldn't find it on their site. I was just a little surprised that they would tie and thought that the HCAC must have some secondary criteria used for tie breaking purposes. Then, I thought it was even more curious that Hanover was listed as the higher seed, given RH's stronger overall record. I do see in your reply the Transylvania and RH shared the reg season title in '12 so maybe they do allow ties and title sharing.

Honestly, the whole HCAC Conf awards process seemed tough to figure out.  (The NCAA pre-Championship manual was wrong about the HCAC AQ process too.)