2015 Great Lakes Region

[Christan Shirk]

FYI: There is a revised Pre-Championships Manual out.  We at D3soccer.com found numerous inaccuracies in the manual, most regarding school's conference affiliation but also things like how the HCAC AQ is awarded.  We contacted the NCAA we out list of suspected error and they issued a revised manual on October 21.  We have the revised version up on our website under the NCAA Tourney drop-down menu.

[Footy23]

The first HCAC tie-breaker is head-to-head. Going off of that, I believe it is set up so that if the regular season meeting between those two programs ended in a draw (2-2)...then the away team (Hanover) will receive the #1 seed come conference tourney time. I would assume they will be named Regular Season Co-Champions.

[TennesseeJed]

The first HCAC tie-breaker is head-to-head. Going off of that, I believe it is set up so that if the regular season meeting between those two programs ended in a draw (2-2)...then the away team (Hanover) will receive the #1 seed come conference tourney time. I would assume they will be named Regular Season Co-Champions.

Thanks Footy!  Very helpful.

[Flying Weasel]

Following the links in the post above, both schools report as having won a share of the league title/championship.  Why would they do that if there is a tie-breaker that would have resulted in a single champion?  You'd say a share of first place, not a share of the title or a share of the championship, if a tie-breaker would produce a single winner of the title/championship.

https://www.hanover.edu/athletics/news?article=6078: The Panthers finish 7-0-2 in Heartland Collegiate Athletic Conference play and have clinched a share of the program's first league title.

http://athletics.rose-hulman.edu/sports/msoc/2015-16/releases/20151031qbywuw: Rose-Hulman Institute of Technology won a share of the Heartland Collegiate Athletic Conference men's soccer regular season championship with a 2-0 victory at Bluffton University on Saturday.

[Domino1195]

Following the links in the post above, both schools report as having won a share of the league title/championship.  Why would they do that if there is a tie-breaker that would have resulted in a single champion?  You'd say a share of first place, not a share of the title or a share of the championship, if a tie-breaker would produce a single winner of the title/championship.

Some conferences award "bling" - which can be as important/prestigious to the student athletes as their placement in the post season tournament. In the case of of a tie players from both teams would receive championship rings.

[Domino1195]

Checking Massey's SOS changes from this past week - in the OAC - 7 of the 9 teams saw their SOS drop - exceptions Heidelberg and Capital.  In NCAC only two teams saw their SOS drop - Wooster (-.10) and Wabash -(0.02) - while many increased .5 or better.  Per the previous discussion, ONU versus Denison, I would expect Denison to remain seeded over ONU.

[TennesseeJed]

Copying a picture of an Excel table with some analysis on top 10 teams in GL region, all of whom have been ranked by NCAA, or could possibly be, based on last week's matches.  Data ranked from highest to lowest based on Week 2 NCAA regional SoS figures.  Numbers shaded in green are highest in column.  Numbers shaded in yellow are lowest in column.  Possible that there are some small mathematical errors--I checked this several times but there's a lot going on in the calcs...

If you click on the table, it will zoom in and expand so you can see the detail much more easily.



Some quick observations:

OWU: Week 2 Rank #2:  Loss to Kenyon at home hurts Win% and RvR but still boosts region's already highest SoS of .580; Hiram at home hurts SoS, but not enough to matter.  Avg. Win% of .789 and 4th lowest RvR  at .375 are biggest issues for OWU, who should and will stay ranked, likely remaining in top 4.  #2 seed in NCAC tourney, always with legit shot at AQ and deep run in NCAA tourney.  Best odds for a Pool C bid in GL region if they don't win AQ in NCAC tourney.
Denison: Week 2 Rank #3:  Denison's loss to Oberlin takes them out of the NCAC tourney, but they still retain the 2nd highest SoS and a .500 RvR.  Last 2 games will marginally drag on SoS.  Denison likely to lose more ground in region than any other team, if they retain a rank.  If SoS, RvR and Win % are top 3 criteria, Denison still may be ranked.  Win % just below average for region at .735.  Expect Denison to duke it out with CWRU, Oberlin and ONU for bottom spots in GL rankings, if they retain a rank after poor recent conf. record.
DePauw: Week 2 Rank #5:  3rd highest SoS in region will be slightly weighed down by Allegheny game, but will still be above average for region.  RvR at .500 and .765 Win % both middle of the pack for region.  Expect DePauw to hold current rank or even notch up to 4.  #3 seed in NCAC tourney with potential to win AQ.  Not a lock for Pool C, but a legit contender, likely depending on how they play in post-season games.
RH: Week 2 Rank #4:  RH is just about exactly average for the region on almost all metrics.  Their respectable .552 SoS will be weighed upon heavily this week by games at Anderson and Bluffton which produced OWP's of .368 and .079, resp. even as away games due to their extremely low win%'s.  RH is favored to win HCAC, so they may be taken out of Pool C if they win AQ in their own conf. tourney.
CMU:  Week 2 #6:  Huge weekend for CMU, with away wins at Chicago and WashU, significantly helping their SoS and RvR.  CMU is strong candidate for positive movement in rankings this week.  RvR's could be affected by rankings for other UAA teams in other regions.  CMU not eligible for an AQ bid in the UAA so CMU will be holding out strongly for a GL region Pool C bid.
Oberlin:  Week 2 NR:  Oberlin's strong recent play, great frosh GK and tenacity keep them in at #4th seed in NCAC tourney.  Weak Win % and RvR not enough last week to get them an NCAA rank, even with a higher than average region SoS of .546.  Hiram will weigh on SoS but Denison away game will more than offset it and will likely put slight upward pressure on SoS.  Good enough to knock off CWRU?  Hard to say--they'll be in a 4 way battle with CWRU, Denison and ONU for the bottom few spots.
TMC:  Week 2 Rank #1:  Just below region avg (.540) SoS, at a still respectable .537, and 2nd highest Win% and RvR keep TMC towards the top of GL region.  Bethany and W&J games pull SoS down slightly but still likely respectable.  TMC odds on favorite for AQ in PrAC, with virtually no other team even close on conf or overall record.  Could easily drop out of Pool C contention w/ a Pool A bid.  A loss in the PrAC tourney would be bad for others in the GL region counting on a Pool C bid.  CWRU dropping out would hurt their RvR and Denison dropping out would help.
CWRU:  Week 2 #8:  Tragic losses for CWRU @Chicago and @WashU tank Win% and RvR.  Both games will be very positive for CW's currently weak .503 SoS, but the Spartans are tied w/ Denison for 2nd lowest Win% of all 10 teams and CW has the lowest RvR of all 10 teams with a current 1-4-0 record against ranked teams.  Doubt that CW will hold on to it's current #8 spot, but anything's possible.
ONU: Week 2 NR:  ONU has the 2nd lowest SoS of all 10 teams and the 2nd highest Win%.  Their current RvR of 1-2-0 (.333) is uninspiring and their game at Baldwin Wallace is going to drag on their already weak SoS more than an away game at Marietta is likely to help.  ONU could be the beneficiary of CW's trouble, or they could lose out to Oberlin, who has significantly stronger SoS and comparable RvR.  ONU remaining out is a positive for OWU and a negative for CWRU and Brockport St.  ONU is far and away the favorite in the relatively weak OAC, with only John Carroll likely to put up much resistance to ONU's AQ bid, if any.
Kenyon:  Week 2 #7:  NCAC regular season champ Kenyon sports the lowest SoS in the region of any ranked team, currently.  Their recent away game at OWU and home game at Wabash will both give Kenyon's lagging SoS a much needed boost and should get it comfortably above .500 this week.  Kenyon currently has the highest Win% of all 10 teams (.938) and highest RvR in the region (.750).  Oberlin coming into the rankings would help Kenyon.  CMU staying in also helps.  The only negative RvR stat Kenyon has is the loss to DePauw, which is very unlikely to go away at this point, even if they lose to OWU in the NCAC semi's or lose in the NCAC final.  Their stats are too good.  Kenyon is poised, with improvement in their SoS, to be the biggest potential gainer in the region this week.  Kenyon and OWU are the favorites to battle for the NCAC's AQ spot next Saturday in the finals, but Oberlin and DePauw are both capable of upsets with either of the top two seeds. 

[lastguyoffthebench]

PREDICTION
1) Thomas More
2) OWU
3) CMU
4) Kenyon
5) Rose-Hulman
6) DePauw
7) Denison

[TennesseeJed]

PREDICTION
1) Thomas More
2) OWU
3) CMU
4) Kenyon
5) Rose-Hulman
6) DePauw
7) Denison

Who do you give #8?

[lastguyoffthebench]

Wild card in Geneva.  Perhaps John Carroll, Oberlin, ONU in the mix?   Does CWRU stay in?   I'd still lean Geneva

[TennesseeJed]

Wild card in Geneva.  Perhaps John Carroll, Oberlin, ONU in the mix?   Does CWRU stay in?   I'd still lean Geneva

Problems, as I see it, for Geneva are:  horrible incremental impact to SoS from last 2 games (Thiel 3-14-1 and St. Vincent 2-15-2), both at HOME, 0-2-0 RvR and .676 Win %.  Only redeeming factor is a SoS of .541 last week, but it's definitely gonna come down this week.

JC's SoS, while higher last week than some of the lower ranked teams, has a 0-2 RvR and played relatively weak teams for their past 3 games since the last ranking, so they're not going to get much of a boost--if anything, it might come down because of Muskingum, as the Mt. Unions will pretty much offset one another (one home and one away and close to .500 record).  Don't see them breaking in above CW.

CW's SoS is going to have a big jump since they played both Chicago and WashU away.  Their RvR is going to tank however and even if they stay in the rankings at #8, I don't see any way for them to remain in contention for a Pool C bid.

Oberlin and ONU make the most sense to me for potential entrants at the low end of the region and Denison may drop lower than your original prediction, in spite of their very strong SoS, by missing the NCAC tourney and a middling .500 RvR.

We'll know soon enough! 

[Ryan Harmanis]

I may end up being wrong, but I see no way ONU is ranked.  I'd project their SoS to fall below 0.490, and they don't have anything resembling Kenyon's profile when they barely snuck in the lower portion of the rankings with below-0.500 SoS.

[TennesseeJed]

We now have our answer!  New data sheets are not up yet, so can't see the revised stats yet.


Great Lakes   In-Division Record   Overall Record
1.   Carnegie Mellon   11-2-3   11-2-3
2.   DePauw   11-2-4   11-2-4
3.   Thomas More   16-1-1   16-1-1
4.   Kenyon   15-1-0   15-1-0
5.   Ohio Wesleyan   14-3-2   14-3-2
6.   Denison   11-3-3   11-3-3
7.   Rose-Hulman   12-2-4   12-2-4
8.   Oberlin   11-6-1   11-6-1

[Domino1195]

Kenyon video not available today?!?!?

[TennesseeJed]

Kenyon video not available today?!?!?

I've already sent 2 support requests to Stretch Internet.  No word back yet...

Update:  working now!

Amolo just scores at '15.  1-0 Kenyon.