2015 Great Lakes Region

[Domino1195]

Kenyon video not available today?!?!?

I've already sent 2 support requests to Stretch Internet.  No word back yet...

Update:  apparently technical issues with equipment at Kenyon.  No estimate given...

This blows.

I was "this" close to taking the day off to go to both games - said Nah - I watch the first and go to OWU tonight.  The OWU thing I can control . . .

[TennesseeJed]

Kenyon video not available today?!?!?

I've already sent 2 support requests to Stretch Internet.  No word back yet...

Update:  apparently technical issues with equipment at Kenyon.  No estimate given...

This blows.

I was "this" close to taking the day off to go to both games - said Nah - I watch the first and go to OWU tonight.  The OWU thing I can control . . .

I'm envious!  I'm 750-800 miles away from Gambier...  I was there for CMU, which was a great game to see, and Marietta for their double header weekend.  I'd love to see the DPU/OWU game in Delaware too.  Will be a great game to watch. 

[Domino1195]

Thomas More up to their ol' shenanigans! Losing with 4 to go, red card and 2 yellows given to Westminster players.  Why is it their opposition gets the cards???

And as I type this they tie it up off a corner.

And I try to do a little work this afternoon and miss Westminster stealing it at the death.  A bid is stolen . . .

>>Post game box score does not show a red card given - only 2 yellows to TM and 3 yellows to W'minster.  Watching it as it occurred a red card was posted in the play by play.

[TennesseeJed]

Kenyon beats Oberlin 1-0, outshooting the Yeomen 16-8, with Amolo scoring the only goal of the game in the 14th minute.  The Lords host the winner of tonight's other NCAC semi: DPU and OWU on Saturday afternoon.

[Ryan Harmanis]

Thoughts on the regional rankings, prior to TMC losing today (which gets its own post):

(1) Somewhat surprised Carnegie Mellon jumps to #1, but in context I guess not that surprising.  My guess would be that if DePauw, Kenyon, or OWU win the NCAC tournament they'll jump to number one given SOS boosts and additional ranked wins.  That'll be especially true if CMU loses or draws with Case this weekend.

(2) The ordering of the NCAC teams is slightly surprising but will sort itself out via the conference tournament.

(3) Kenyon should be a lock despite the very low SOS after today's win.  That gives the Lords five ranked wins (Oberlin x2, OWU, Denison, Carnegie Mellon).  A loss to either DePauw or OWU shouldn't change anything, and the SoS should stay above 0.510 or so, so that's not a concern.

(4) If DePauw beats OWU tonight they're a lock.  The SOS will be back up to 0.575 or higher after games at OWU and at Kenyon, and that would give DePauw four ranked wins (OWU, Kenyon, Loras, Oberlin).

(5) If OWU wins tonight they should be a lock.  That would give OWU three ranked wins (DePauw x2, Oberlin), plus a trip to Kenyon should bump OWU's SoS up to 0.590-0.600 - easily the strongest in the region.  That should push OWU above DePauw and TMC, and probably above Carnegie Mellon as well, especially if they lose to Case.

(6) Denison and Oberlin are done.

(7) AQ or bust for Rose-Hulman.

[Ryan Harmanis]

Okay, Thomas More.  I think TMC is in big, big trouble.  The Great Lakes regional rankings looked like this as of this morning:

(1) Carnegie Mellon
(2) DePauw
(3) Thomas More
(4) Kenyon
(5) OWU
(6) Denison
(7) Rose-Hulman
(8) Oberlin

Here's TMC's profile: 16-2-1 (0.868), RvR 1-1-1, SoS 0.526 (shouldn't change much after today).  First, let's accept that TMC will not jump Carnegie Mellon if they beat Case or DePauw if they beat OWU - that's an easy assumption as those two teams were already ahead of TMC.  Second, let's assume Kenyon jumps TMC with five ranked wins (to TMC's one), a higher winning percentage (worst-case scenario it's 0.889), and comparable SoS (both pretty low).

So here's TMC's problem - I don't think they can jump Carnegie Mellon or DePauw, even if CMU loses to Case and DePauw loses to OWU.  Let's compare profiles:

TMC: 16-2-1 (0.868), RvR 1-1-1, SoS 0.526
DePauw (loss to OWU): 11-3-4 (0.722), RvR 3-3-2, SoS 0.570 (bump from game @ OWU)
CMU (loss to Case): 11-3-3 (0.735), RvR 3-2-0, SoS 0.575 (bump from game @ Case)

With those profiles, I think TMC is objectively third.  Plus, the committee already said as much by having CMU and DePauw above TMC.  If TMC was behind them today, how could losses by all three teams - with TMC's coming to the weakest team and at home - allow TMC to jump the others?  So that means TMC is already in fourth in the Great Lakes, and third behind Carnegie Mellon and at least one NCAC team in the at-large line. 

Then there's OWU.  If OWU wins the AQ, TMC is probably done, because that would make TMC fourth in the Great Lakes pecking order for at-large bids behind CMU, DePauw, and Kenyon.  It's possible - TMC's profile would be comparable to the last teams in from previous years - but really, really difficult to pull off, as the GL only got one at-large last year.  If OWU needs an at-large, then fourth in the GL comes down to OWU versus TMC.  Let's compare using the NCAA's criteria.  There are two versions of OWU for this exercise, and note that Oberlin making the rankings gives OWU an additional win versus a ranked team for next week:

If OWU beats DePauw but loses to Kenyon
Head-to-Head: TMC wins (decent edge)
Win%: TMC 0.868, OWU 0.761.  TMC wins (slight edge)
RvR: TMC 1-1-1, OWU 3-3-1.  OWU wins (decent edge for two extra ranked wins)
SoS: TMC 0.526, OWU 0.590+ (bump from DePauw and @Kenyon, by far highest in region).  OWU (huge edge)
Common Opponents (Wittenberg, Capital, Denison, Centre, DePauw): TMC 3-1-1, OWU 4-0-2.  OWU wins (slight edge).
Conclusion: If OWU beats DePauw tonight, they're jumping TMC, and probably jumping Carnegie Mellon and DePauw as well.  That leaves TMC at 5th in the Great Lakes, and fourth in line for an at-large bid.  Unlikely to get a bid, but not out of the realm of possibility (would have to compare other regions).

If OWU loses to DePauw
Head-to-Head: TMC wins (edge)
Win%: TMC 0.868, OWU 0.750.  TMC wins (slight edge)
RvR: TMC 1-1-1, OWU 2-3-1.  Even or slight edge to OWU (NCAA usually cares about ranked wins more than losses)
SoS: TMC 0.526, OWU 0.580 (highest in region).  OWU wins (huge edge)
Common Opponents (Wittenberg, Capital, Denison, Centre, DePauw): TMC 3-1-1, OWU 3-1-2.  Even (0.700 vs 0.667).
Conclusion: It's close.  Very, very close.  I would probably have TMC slightly above OWU on the basis of head-to-head, and the committee already has TMC above OWU.  But I'm not sure what the committee does here, because everything is basically even with the exception of head-to-head and strength-of-schedule.  That leaves two outcomes: (1) put TMC ahead because of head-to-head; (2) put OWU ahead because of SOS.  The national committee might put OWU ahead simply because OWU's profile is more competitive nationally, where head-to-head won't come into play.  But I'd call it either a toss-up or a 55-45 edge to TMC.

Bottom line - if you're TMC, you're really, really rooting for DePauw tonight.  And if you're OWU, you either sleep easy tonight and take your shot at Kenyon, probably for first in the GL, or else you have a very nervous rest of the week.

[Ryan Harmanis]

OWU-DePauw underway.  Game has started at a really, really high tempo, high pressure from both teams.  Also looks like the videographer has sobered up since the Kenyon game (**disclaimer, this is a joke**).

OWU has been dominant in the early stages, but has yet to make DePauw pay.  Already 12 shots in the first 20 minutes, including a 1v1 save by DePauw's keeper and a shot off the post.

[PaulNewman]

First 20 minutes DPU looked like they needed to call a timeout.  Settled down a little but OWU still dominant.

Announcer might want to take it easy on the Neuer GK references lol.

[Ryan Harmanis]

Announcer might want to take it easy on the Neuer GK references lol.

He's been comparing OWU's style to the German national team all year, not sure how I feel about it.  I think he's pretty decent for a freshman announcing by himself, all things considered, but yea, Neuer is not the comparison I'd be making.

1-0 OWU at half, great through ball, inch-perfect cross and a simple header.  If you're OWU, I think you're a little concerned that you should be at least two goals up - Shots 17-3, SOG 5-0 (plus one off the post), corners 4-2.  DePauw has yet to get a breakthrough, but they've only been shut out once this year, so they have goals in them.

[PaulNewman]

No, you're right, I'm kidding.  He has done a good job and he's subdued enough that he doesn't really get in the way.  I was mostly laughing because I've noticed he always mentions the German NT and I he think knows Martin has or had some ties to Germany.

DPU doesn't look they are going to put up much of a fight in this one.  Also looks like OWU got Hoge back if I read the # correctly.  And that's great news if that's true.

Wonder if DPU thinks they are safe, and if that plays any role at all in how they look tonight.

[Ryan Harmanis]

DPU doesn't look they are going to put up much of a fight in this one.  Also looks like OWU got Hoge back if I read the # correctly.  And that's great news if that's true.

Unfortunately no - season-ending shoulder surgery.  And yea, I laugh when he does it too, and assume he's done some research or something to know the OWU-Germany connection.

[PaulNewman]

Oh, I'm sorry, I saw a #18 come in and thought that was him but now I'm remembering he was #16 (I think).

[Ryan Harmanis]

Wow.  OWU looks to have gone up 2-0 off a pair of headers, but the ref calls it back.  The announcer seemed to think it was offsides, but the stats (and the ref's hand signal) showed a foul.  I couldn't see anything there, but a big, big letoff for DePauw. 

Game has devolved, haven't seen a shot in ages.  OWU is obviously fine with 1-0, but you don't like to leave the game in the balance.  Ref is also letting things get a little chippy, something to keep an eye on.  15 minutes left.

2-0 OWU.  In the last five minutes DePauw was committing extra men forward, leaving OWU's attacking players 1v1, and in the end it cost them.  A comeback isn't impossible, but DePauw has yet to carve out a good attacking opportunity all game.

Ohio Wesleyan wins 2-0.  Shots 25-7, SOG 8-2 (plus a post and a goal called back), corners 8-2.  Game was always on edge because DePauw counters so well, but the Tigers failed to create anything dangerous.  Really good performance from OWU with their backs to the wall.

This should take pressure off the NCAC title game as both teams should be safely into the NCAA tournament and can just play.

[Domino1195]

First 20 minutes DPU looked like they needed to call a timeout.  Settled down a little but OWU still dominant.

Announcer might want to take it easy on the Neuer GK references lol.

Too funny - I was sitting directly beneath the press box and said the same thing to a couple OWU fans midway through the first. This is the second time I've seen DePauw and I still don't get want they're trying to do on offense. Second half they came out with energy but that was done within 15 minutes. I commented that once we see the separation from the top three and the rest of the team they would be done. At about 20 minutes in the keeper gained possession and rolled it quickly to the right back. He immediately pushed it forward and got it midfield. By the time they crossed midfield DePauw still had 6 players in their defensive third. Stick the fork in . . .

[Ryan Harmanis]

DePauw is very much a defend-and-counter team as far as I can tell.  And that's been very, very effective in the past against OWU, and against other teams this year.  They did beat both Kenyon and Loras.

OWU made a few adjustments to their normal style of play in both games that made DePauw's strategy ineffective.  So unless OWU made a defensive mistake or DePauw had a piece of great individual skill - not coincidentally that's how they scored their goals in the first matchup - DePauw wasn't going to create much going forward.