NJAC Pick'em

[lastguyoffthebench]

NJAC gets underway this weekend with 3 games on the Saturday card:

Ramapo at Stockton
Rutgers-Camden at WPU
TCNJ @ Rutgers-Newark

Stockton will be looking to avenge last years 3-3 draw at Ramapo, a team that has only mustered 3 conference wins in the last 2 seasons.  I don't expect Ramapo to get a result on the road.  An early draw vs Lancaster Bible and a rout by ECSU, Stockton should control this game from whistle to whistle.  Massey ratings has Stockton 64% to win. Stockton 3, Ramapo 1.   

Rutgers-Camden coming off an OT win vs an underrated Cabrini side and a draw vs slightly overrated CNU side without conceding a goal.  They have not lost to WPU since 2006 (7-1-2) run.  Both teams have played a seemingly underrated Manhattanville side (last second loss to MSU, win over Vassar), with Camden winning 3-2 and WPU drawing 0-0.  This is a crucial matchup for WPU as they will be floating around the 5-7th slot in the league fighting for a position to make the conference tournament.   This is also crucial for Rutgers-Camden as they can not afford slip-ups in winnable road games.  Massey ratings has Camden 53% to win. Rutgers-Camden 2, William Paterson 0.

TCNJ has been off to an impressive start, considering they were voted to finish 8th in the conference before the season (wins over Stevens Tech and Roanoke).  Both teams have played and beat NYU; TCNJ 3-1, Rutgers-Newark 1-0.  Rutgers-Newark avenged last years NCAA tourney loss to Cortland St with a 3-1.  I will give the home team the edge in this one, but a draw would not surprise me.  Massey ratings gives Newark a 60% chance to win.  Rutgers-Newark 2, TCNJ 1.


My Predictions for 2015 season:

1) Rutgers-Camden
2) MSU
3) Stockton
4) Rutgers-Newark
5) Rowan
6) Kean
7) TCNJ
8) WPU
9) Ramapo
10) NJCU

[lastguyoffthebench]

9/19 results:

Stockton 1, Ramapo 0.
Rutgers-Camden 3, William Paterson 1.
Rutgers-Newark 3, TCNJ 2.

Record 3-0

9/21

NJCU at Rutgers-Camden

NJCU has some bad losses, but played on Camden's field earlier in the year and held on 94 minutes before falling to CNU 1-0.   The following day they lost to Manhattanville 4-0.   They have scored 7 goals in 7 games, and have been shut out 3 times.   Camden 3, NJCU 0.   Possibly rests some starters after a 2-0 lead with Miseri on the schedule in two days.

[lastguyoffthebench]

9/21 result:

Rutgers-Camden 3, NJCU 1.   MF Connor Hurff now with 6G, 7A on the season.   Rutgers-Camden now 51-3-3 run at home.

Record: 4-0

Wednesday, 9/23:
MSU @ NJCU

MSU has Stockton on Saturday, so I'd expect them to rest some starters after a decent lead.  MSU wins convincingly.  MSU 3, NJCU 0.


Saturday, 9/26
Rutgers-Newark @ Rowan 
Kean University @ TCNJ 
William Paterson University @ Ramapo
Stockton University @ Montclair State   

Rutgers-Newark travels to Rowan, but which Rowan side shows up (the team that lost 4-0 to SLU or the team that beat Messiah 4-2).  I give the edge to Rutgers-Newark in a close game.  Rutgers-Newark 2, Rowan 1.

Kean University travels to TCNJ.  They haven't really been tested like TCNJ, but I think they give them a tough test.  Kean 2, TCNJ 2

William Paterson @ Ramapo.  Again, Ramapo has only 3 conference wins in the last two years, and WPU will find a way to get a result.  William Paterson 2, Ramapo 1 (1ot).

Stockton @ MSU is the game of the day.  I'm going with the upset special; Stockton 2, MSU 1.

[Mr.Right]

Who are the 3 losses and 3 draws? 51-3-3 is astounding, its no wonder they cannot beg teams to play there

[lastguyoffthebench]

I was at the Lynchburg game last year when the lost 3-0 in a down pour.  They completely controlled the game but could not finish and made 3 costly errors.

LOSSES
2014:  Lynchbury 0-3, Haverford 3-7 (chased the game and were down a man or two, cannot remember).
2012:  Rutgers-Newark 0-1

DRAWS
2015:  #1 CNU 0-0
2013:  #9 MSU 0-0
2011:  NJCU 0-0


Early in 2010, they had 3 home losses (Arcadia, Kean, TCNJ).  That year they traveled to Wheaton MA (lost to Brandeis 2-0, lost to Wheaton 2-0 in a rebuilding year).  Including the last 4 home games of 2010: 55-3-3

[Mr.Right]

Yes rain provides for the nutty to happen in futbol...That 7-3 Haverford game was at Camden? Letting up 7 goals on your own field has to sting the confidence.

[lastguyoffthebench]

-- 1st -- 
Rutgers-Camden  9:04  Mike Ryan (6) (Ryan Kelly)  long pass out of the back springs Ryan. 
Haverford           33:20 Tejan Walcott (3) (unassisted)  loose ball box, turn, first inside R pos 
Rutgers-Camden  34:03 Connor Hurff (2) (Mike Ryan)   
Haverford            35:21 Brady Seitz (4) (Russell Nicholson)  finish off serve across 
Haverford            42:54 Brady Seitz (5) (Will Corkery)  header near L post off CK 

-- 2nd -- 
Haverford            49:49 Ben Field (3) (Sam Yarosh)  through ball 
RED CARD 63rd MIN
Haverford            65:19 Maclyn Willigan (2) (Will Corkery)  header far post off CK 
Rutgers-Camden  76:14 Mike Ryan (7) (unassisted)  loose ball in goal 
Haverford            81:38 Tejan Walcott (Sam Yarosh)  cross, hit at L post, in 
Haverford            82:27 Brady Seitz (6) (unassisted)

[Mr.Right]

Ahh yes I forgot that Jersey / Philly toughness and horrible refs that lose control fast that leads to many cards

[lastguyoffthebench]

Results

MSU 4, NJCU 0.   (Prediction MSU 3, NJCU 0)
Rowan 7, Rutgers-Newark 1.  (Prediction Rutgers-Newark 2, Rowan 1).
Kean 4, TCNJ 1    (Prediction Kean 2, TCNJ 2).
WPU 2, Ramapo 2.  (Prediction WPU 2, Ramapo 1).

Record:  5-4


Wednesday, 9/30
Kean @  New Jersey City      3:00 PM LS 
Rowan  @  Rutgers-Camden      7:00 PM 
TCNJ @  Stockton      7:00 PM 
William Paterson @ Montclair State      7:00 PM 
Ramapo  @  Rutgers-Newark      7:30 PM 

Kean travels to New Jersey City and I expect them to get a result.   Kean 3, NJCU 1

Which Rowan team shows up, the one that lost to SLU 4-0 or the one that beat Messiah 4-2 and Newark 7-1?  My guess is the latter, but Camden will defend it's home turf and get a late winner.  Rutgers-Camden 2, Rowan 1.

TCNJ travels to Stockton in what already has playoff implications.  A loss would set them back to 0-3 in conference play with MSU, RU-C, Rowan remaining on the schedule.   Stockton is on a two game skid (losses to MSU 3-1 and Haverford 2-0).  They will return home with confidence get the W.  Stockton 3, TCNJ 1.

Willy P heading to MSU with an 0-1-1 conference record.  MSU will be too much for them. MSU 2, WPU 0.

Ramapo at Rutgers-Newark.  This is a MUST WIN for Newark at home.  They have NJCU next so this will not be a trap/let down game in my opinion.  Rutgers-Newark 2, Ramapo 1.

[lastguyoffthebench]

9/30/15 RESULTS

Kean 5, NJCU 0.
TNCJ 1, Stockton 3.
WPU 1, MSU 2 (ot)
Rowan 0, Rutgers-Camden 1
Ramapo 0, Rutgers-Newark 1

Record: 10-4


Saturday, 10/3

Saturday10.3.15Men's Soccer

New Jersey City University @ Rutgers-Newark   Conference Game  11:00 AM  Newark, N.J. (Alumni Field)   
Stockton University @ William Paterson   Conference Game  1:00 PM  Wayne, N.J.  Live Stats   
Rowan University @ Ramapo   Conference Game  1:00 PM  Mahwah, NJ  Live Stats   
Montclair State University  @ The College of NJ   Conference Game  1:00 PM  Ewing, NJ - TCNJ Soccer Complex  Live Stats   
Rutgers-Camden @ Kean   Conference Game  4:00 PM  Union, NJ 


NJCU struggles will continue.  They have only score twice in the last seven games.  Newark needs MAX points here, so expect them to come out blazing. Rutgers-Newark 2, NJCU 0.

Stockton travels to WPU.   Osprey pace will be too much for WPU, but it will be a late winner with the possibility of overtime.  Stockton 2, WPU 1 (2OT).

Rowan heads to Ramapo in hopes to rebound over the tough loss at Camden.  My comments remain the same in reference to Ramapo conference struggles with only 3 wins the last 2.5 seasons.  With the 4-0 whitewash by ECSU and no other real strong opponents I'll roll with Rowan's potent offense here.  Each game that Ramapo has lost this season, they were held scoreless; 0-4, 0-1 (Stockton), 0-1 (Arcadia), 0-1 (RU-N);  Rowan 2, Ramapo 0.

MSU has a tricky fixture on the TCNJ turf, where the Lions continue to get results (Wins over Stevens and Drew).  With an 0-3 conference record and Rutgers-Camden and Rowan left on the schedule in addition to MSU, TCNJ could be falling fast.  With their backs against the wall, my heart thinks they stay organized and earn a draw a hard fought draw here.  My head says they are in trouble having let up 7 goals the last two conference games; 3 to Stockton and 4 to Kean.   If they fail to get a point, any chance at a postseason bid will be diminished.  MSU 3, TCNJ 0.

Rutgers-Camden travels to Kean and both teams are jockeying for stronger positions in the table.  Just in 2013, Kean was 0-8-1 in conference play; 5-4 in 2014.   I have not seen Kean this year, but the 4-1 box score at TCNJ was a shocker.   I'm leaning towards experience here, along with the team that has had the tougher schedule thus far.  Kean will struggle to break down a side as organized as Camden.  Aside from a reeling TCNJ, Kean's only real test was against Swarthmore, a game where they lost 1-0.   Rutgers-Camden 3, Kean 1.. 

[lastguyoffthebench]

KEAN SOS (259)

at Old Westbury (2-7)
vs Widener (4-5-1)
at Swarthmore (4-6)
Medgar Evers (2-6)
at St Joseph's LI (2-7-1)
at Yeshiva (3-4-1) 
at Marywood (2-4-2)
DeSales (4-5)
Purchase (2-8)
at College of NJ (6-3-2)
at NJ City (1-9)

7 of their 11 games have been on the road, 1 neutral...  Maybe schools just don't want to play them and they are forced to travel vs weaker teams?

[lastguyoffthebench]

Massey Ratings as of 10/1/15

MSU (9)
Rowan (16)
RUC (19)
Kean (28)
Stockton (35)
RUN (66)
TCNJ (82)

[Mr.Right]

KEAN SOS (259)

at Old Westbury (2-7)
vs Widener (4-5-1)
at Swarthmore (4-6)
Medgar Evers (2-6)
at St Joseph's LI (2-7-1)
at Yeshiva (3-4-1) 
at Marywood (2-4-2)
DeSales (4-5)
Purchase (2-8)
at College of NJ (6-3-2)
at NJ City (1-9)

7 of their 11 games have been on the road, 1 neutral...  Maybe schools just don't want to play them and they are forced to travel vs weaker teams?

God is that SOFT....Just that resume alone has to be .480 SOS with a horrible OWP and OOWP...Thankfully for them their next conference games will significantly bump all those numbers up. Now lets see if they can get some results and they should be in good shape

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Mr. Right,

Is Kean any good? Are they for real? I noticed them climbing the rankings but know nothing about them. Any info on them?

[Mr.Right]

Mr. Right,

Is Kean any good? Are they for real? I noticed them climbing the rankings but know nothing about them. Any info on them?

I have no idea...I have not seen 1 NJAC team this year because 1. Usually they are playing when I am watching Nescac or UAA games or 2. Their live stream is non-existent or so bad that it makes me dizzy to watch.  It is a shame because it is a great league and I would like to follow it and analyze it more than I do.  Luckily we have Lastguy to fill us in