UAA 2015

[PaulNewman]

blooter, I don't remember exactly and it was so chaotic I don't think I knew exactly at the time.  I did post about it....could look for that....I was watching online and you could hear a bunch of stuff on audio.  Can't recall if something on the field but think I vaguely recall that something was going on with CMU fans and UR bench and that someone (Apple???) was yelling for someone to go get the CMU AD to the field.  So don't necessarily think the red was for Apple specifically.  But it was a HUGE game and UR stole it...tied it late I think and then won it very late. 

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

All tied at 2-2.

Crazy thing is that Carnegie actually looks much more threatening and better in possession. But defense has been their Achilles' heel at times this season. Can't keep giving Rochester corners, as that's where both of their goals have come from - they look toothless in normal play.

I forgot this game is at CMU, as they played at CMU last year, and some really intense stuff happened on the sideline, and UR came from behind to steal the game.  That was a crushing defeat for CMU in a game it looked like they had and no doubt absolutely critical in keeping UR alive for a bid.

Just went to check the box score for that game and it appears that (TEAM) got a red card, so I'm assuming Apple? Can you clarify? I thought he was much more professional than to accumulate a red as a coach, but I guess everyone has their days.

It's a tale of 2 halves. All CMU in first and all UR in second. I don't think CMU looks near as threatening as UR since the half time break.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

2-2 final

[blooter442]

Carnegie almost steals it in 2OT, but a draw probably the fair result.

Good fightback by Rochester, but that's five ties in mid-October and no in-conference wins yet. To get to 10 wins, they have to win all six of their remaining games. Can they do it? I'm hoping not, but Apple is a good coach and he'll have them ready for crunch time.

[PaulNewman]

Carnegie almost steals it in 2OT, but a draw probably the fair result.

Good fightback by Rochester, but that's five ties in mid-October and no in-conference wins yet. To get to 10 wins, they have to win all six of their remaining games. Can they do it? I'm hoping not, but Apple is a good coach and he'll have them ready for crunch time.

Last year they got in at 9-4-4, beating CMU and Case in last 2 UAA games.  Then beat Salisbury easily as I recall and took very highly ranked F&M to PKs in round of 32.

[PaulNewman]

That's huge win for Case, 2-0 over Emory.

[blooter442]

Last year they got in at 9-4-4, beating CMU and Case in last 2 UAA games.  Then beat Salisbury easily as I recall and took very highly ranked F&M to PKs in round of 32.

Fair, but - and maybe I'm putting too much emphasis on results vs. ranked - they haven't yet gotten a big result this year like they did last year. Last season, they won 2 big games against SLU and Brandeis and tied Oneonta, so I can understand how they got in, but for them to win four, even five games is asking a lot especially considering A. Moravian aside, they're all conference games, so likely to be more challenging and B. they've tied their last three. Wouldn't be surprised to see them go on a run and make it, but hard to see at this point in my book.

Edit: I was actually wrong - they can't get to 10 regular-season wins - they'll need to go clean in order to get to 9 wins, as they only have five games left on the schedule (I previously misread and counted the Carnegie game, as I looked at their schedule and it didn't have a result listed next to it.)

That's huge win for Case, 2-0 over Emory.

WOW. Didn't see that one coming.

[PaulNewman]

I'm not saying UR is going to get in.  You're right.  Not looking promising.  But they are definitely one of those teams that you thought was dead that shows up at the end of the movie.  Sort of like I won't believe Messiah isn't going to get the AQ until I see the last second go off the clock with the Falcons on the losing end, and just as I knew OWU would be back front and center when they were in the poll about disappointing teams with the hardest road to climb.

And I think that's probably why both UR and CMU went after scoring so hard in the OTs.  BOTH needed 3 points real bad, as 3 points are not going to be easy to come by in the UAA aside from NYU.  And considering that CMU was up 2-0, at home, that's a tough result for them.

[blooter442]

I'm not saying UR is going to get in.  You're right.  Not looking promising.  But they are definitely one of those teams that you thought was dead that shows up at the end of the movie.  Sort of like I won't believe Messiah isn't going to get the AQ until I see the last second go off the clock with the Falcons on the losing end, and just as I knew OWU would be back front and center when they were in the poll about disappointing teams with the hardest road to climb.

I'll agree with that. Tomorrow is the halfway point for UAA fixtures, and with only seven league games as opposed to the NESCAC's 10 (and no playoff finals), every single one counts. Can't remember if it was you or not, NCAC, but someone said getting an early 1-0 lead in the UAA is like having a 3-0 lead in any other game. Given the number of tight, tense affairs that there are (most UAA games are) I'd say you're right. Would be curious to know the percentage of games that end in one-goal decisions.

On another note, I think Bonin of Chicago is the best goalkeeper I've seen in a while in the UAA. Seen him a few times and he's impressed, and now I understand why he was 2nd Team All-UAA as a freshman. Not the tallest goalkeeper at 5-11 but he commands his box as good as any. Last night he made a phenomenal point-blank save from a Chaput header. Couldn't believe it was in. As far as the goal, he couldn't have done anything about it. His team has overachieved IMHO in the past two years but when you've got a good GK back there you'll be in every game.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Last year they got in at 9-4-4, beating CMU and Case in last 2 UAA games.  Then beat Salisbury easily as I recall and took very highly ranked F&M to PKs in round of 32.

Fair, but - and maybe I'm putting too much emphasis on results vs. ranked - they haven't yet gotten a big result this year like they did last year. Last season, they won 2 big games against SLU and Brandeis and tied Oneonta, so I can understand how they got in, but for them to win four, even five games is asking a lot especially considering A. Moravian aside, they're all conference games, so likely to be more challenging and B. they've tied their last three. Wouldn't be surprised to see them go on a run and make it, but hard to see at this point in my book.

Edit: I was actually wrong - they can't get to 10 regular-season wins - they'll need to go clean in order to get to 9 wins, as they only have five games left on the schedule (I previously misread and counted the Carnegie game, as I looked at their schedule and it didn't have a result listed next to it.)

That's huge win for Case, 2-0 over Emory.

WOW. Didn't see that one coming.

It would also to be hard to let a UR team with only 2 losses not in the tournament no matter how many ties they end up with. Say they go 8-2-6....would be tough not to count them in with only two losses and playing in the UAA.

[blooter442]

It would also to be hard to let a UR team with only 2 losses not in the tournament no matter how many ties they end up with. Say they go 8-2-6....would be tough not to count them in with only two losses and playing in the UAA.

Hypothetically speaking I agree, but I don't think it's very realistic to expect that they go unbeaten the rest of the season. My prediction is that they drop at least one of those games, and even if they were to win three, tie one, and lose one, that puts them at 7-3-7, which is not very impressive. It's important to remember that, despite their past, Rochester did miss out on NCAAs in 2011 when they blew it by losing their last two games, so they are by no means an undisputed pick every year.

I'm thinking the best course of action is to shelve this debate until November.

[Mr.Right]

Didn't Brockport St get a Pool C last year with 6 draws?

[blooter442]

Yes, but they missed the year before with a similar 11-2-5 record. Guess it depends on the year - think that big 2014 win over SLU probably had something to do with it.

Anyway, tomorrow (actually, technically today I guess) - Brandeis vs. WashU should be a great game. Despite being ranked at one point this season, I feel like WashU has flown under the radar. The Bears are a good, balanced team, and were on the wrong end of three tough OT losses in the UAA last year, so they'll be hungry. Coming into its game against Brandeis tomorrow hot off the heels of a 4-0 romping of NYU. From what I was told, WashU pulled most of its starters after taking control, while Brandeis was lucky to get away with a 1-0 win in a game Chicago dominated. That said, Brandeis has gotten away with wins in countless close games this year - 11 of its 12 wins have been by a goal - and while part of that is due to offensive inefficiency, the other part is that they just know how to grind out wins. All the pieces are there for a great matchup.

Fun facts:
* Brandeis has won the last two meetings (2012 & 2014) in St. Louis - the 2012 victory was Brandeis' first over WashU in 10 years. However, the last two games in Waltham, the Judges have drawn (2013) and lost (2011), so WashU will hope that their road success continues.
* WashU is 6-1 on the road this year, significantly better than its 2-0-3 home record.

[Mr.Right]

NCAA thoughts on UAA teams.....

Locks:

Brandeis
Case Western

Very good Possibility:

Wash U


Bubble:

Carnegie Mellon



Long shots:

Emory---They need to go clean and even then it is a long shot

Chicago---"same as Emory"

OUT:

NYU and Rochester

[PaulNewman]

Agree with Mr.Right.  And I believe CMU's last 3 UAA games are on the road.