UAA 2015

[TennesseeJed]

Friday 10/30

CWRU 1-0 Chicago
Brandeis 1-1 Emory
NYU 1-3 Rochester
CMU 1-2 WashU

Sunday

Brandeis 2-1 Rochester
NYU 0-2 Emory
CMU 1-2 Chicago
CWRU 2-1 WashU

[Mr.Right]

This is the biggest weekend for this league.

NYU---------Eliminated


Rochester------- 99% Eliminated as they are 5-3-5 and even if they beat NYU, Brandeis and Emory their SOS will not fluctuate much because Brandeis helps and NYU drags it down. They have a .620 SOS that will most likely stay there. Their RvR is currently 1-2-3 and if they beat Emory and Brandeis would move to 3-2-3 with a .620 SOS and a 8-3-5 record. That is commendable and hard to ignore. Mind you crazier things have happened but I think they have 1 to many blemishes.


Chicago--------Bubble but they are on the wrong side of it currently. They are 9-4-2 with a nice .595 SOS and their RvR is 2-3-0. All that being said IMO they control their own destiny. They finish with Case, CMU and Wash U all at home. If they win those 3 games or even go 2-0-1 they are IN. They would be 11-4-3 with a SOS that will rise to .620 and a RvR of 5-3-0 if Case and CMU stay ranked which they might not. A lot of if's but they get 3 wins they are IN.


Carnegie Mellon----65% Eliminated....They have a lot of work to do and must rely on other regions and leagues to go their way. They are currently ranked #6 in Great Lakes. They are 9-2-3 with a SOS .546 and a RvR of 1-2-0. That is a WEAK SOS for a UAA team. Anyway, they finish with at Case, at Wash U and at Chicago all ranked teams and that SOS will most likely bump to .580. So if they beat all 3 they would finish 12-2-3 with a RvR of 3-2-0 because if they beat Case, Case would not still be ranked. 12-2-3 with a .575-.580 SOS and a RvR of 3-2-0 is hard to ignore. Like I said it is possible but very unlikely.


Emory------------80% Eliminated.....Currently they sit at 8-4-2 with a .585 SOS and a 2-2-0 RvR. Ho-hum.  Their problem is they finish with Brandeis, NYU and Rochester all at home. The only game that helps them is Brandeis. That SOS will not move much even if they win all 3 games and finish 11-4-2 with a .585 SOS and a 3-2-0 RvR they will be given a quick glance by the committee but ultimely fall short.



Wash U-----------IN unless they collapse down the stretch.  They are currently 10-2-3 with a .566 SOS and a 2-0-0 RvR. They finish v CMU, v Case and at Chicago. They also sit at the #1 Regionally ranked team in a watered down Central region. That SOS will rise to about .585 or maybe .590. I do not believe all 3 teams of Case, CMU and Chicago will finish ranked at the end because they would have all beaten up on each other. Even if Wash U goes 1-0-2 or 1-2-0 or 1-1-1 they will be IN. Say they go 1-1-1 they would finish 11-3-4 with a .585 SOS and a 3-1-1 RvR...That will be good enough IMO. More important is if they happen to go 3-0-0 and finish 13-2-3 they will be hosting for RD64/RD 32. Their problem is if they host usually you see the 1 or 2 West region teams heading there and that means a very tough RD32 game.



Case Western Reserve------------ELIMINATED unless they WIN the UAA....They MUST win the damn UAA so they kind of control their own destiny but need Brandeis to slip up.  They sit at 12-2-1 with an impressive 3-1-0 in the UAA....What is unimpressive is a .503 SOS which KILLS them. Those cupcake games in the beginning of the year have absolutely killed the SOS. So they sit at 12-2-1 with a .503 SOS and a 1-2-0 RvR....Not going to cut it anyway you slice it. They do finish at Chicago, at Wash U and v CMU. No doubt the SOS will rise to maybe .545 or a little less but that will not be good enough. If they go 3-0-0 to finish with a sitting at 15-2-1 that looks very good at a quick glance. However, the RvR at 1-2-0 would move to 3-2-0 as all 3 will not finished ranked. So 15-2-1 with a .545 SOS and 3-2-0 RvR will be given a glance by the committee and tossed as there are to many teams with better resumes. However, finishing 6-1-0 in the UAA would be impressive but they would need Brandeis to lose or draw a game as they lose that tiebreaker. NOTE---Case winning the UAA would absolutely steal a Pool C from someone else.



Brandeis----------IN......This resume is extremely impressive. 13-2-1 and 3-1-0 in the UAA with the BEST SOS in the country at .644 and a RvR at 4-2-1.  That mid-week game v a 3-11 Lasell team will drag the SOS down plus finishing at Rochester, at Emory and v NYU will also kind of drag the SOS down to maybe .620. They could go 0-3-0 and still get a Pool C finishing at 13-5-1 a .620 SOS and a RvR of 4-3-1..It would be playing with fire but they would most likely get IN. More importantly if they finish 3-0-0 and end up 16-2-1 with a .620 SOS and a 5-2-1 they POSSIBLY could host until the Final 4. Doubtful but possible. I would imagine they would LOVE that as they play so well on that home carpet. Easliy going to host RD64/32 and most likely will be on the move for RD16/RD8 at Amherst or Montclair St or somewhere.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

This is the biggest weekend for this league.

NYU---------Eliminated


Rochester------- 99% Eliminated as they are 5-3-5 and even if they beat NYU, Brandeis and Emory their SOS will not fluctuate much because Brandeis helps and NYU drags it down. They have a .620 SOS that will most likely stay there. Their RvR is currently 1-2-3 and if they beat Emory and Brandeis would move to 3-2-3 with a .620 SOS and a 8-3-5 record. That is commendable and hard to ignore. Mind you crazier things have happened but I think they have 1 to many blemishes.


Chicago--------Bubble but they are on the wrong side of it currently. They are 9-4-2 with a nice .595 SOS and their RvR is 2-3-0. All that being said IMO they control their own destiny. They finish with Case, CMU and Wash U all at home. If they win those 3 games or even go 2-0-1 they are IN. They would be 11-4-3 with a SOS that will rise to .620 and a RvR of 5-3-0 if Case and CMU stay ranked which they might not. A lot of if's but they get 3 wins they are IN.


Carnegie Mellon----65% Eliminated....They have a lot of work to do and must rely on other regions and leagues to go their way. They are currently ranked #6 in Great Lakes. They are 9-2-3 with a SOS .546 and a RvR of 1-2-0. That is a WEAK SOS for a UAA team. Anyway, they finish with at Case, at Wash U and at Chicago all ranked teams and that SOS will most likely bump to .580. So if they beat all 3 they would finish 12-2-3 with a RvR of 3-2-0 because if they beat Case, Case would not still be ranked. 12-2-3 with a .575-.580 SOS and a RvR of 3-2-0 is hard to ignore. Like I said it is possible but very unlikely.


Emory------------80% Eliminated.....Currently they sit at 8-4-2 with a .585 SOS and a 2-2-0 RvR. Ho-hum.  Their problem is they finish with Brandeis, NYU and Rochester all at home. The only game that helps them is Brandeis. That SOS will not move much even if they win all 3 games and finish 11-4-2 with a .585 SOS and a 3-2-0 RvR they will be given a quick glance by the committee but ultimely fall short.



Wash U-----------IN unless they collapse down the stretch.  They are currently 10-2-3 with a .566 SOS and a 2-0-0 RvR. They finish v CMU, v Case and at Chicago. They also sit at the #1 Regionally ranked team in a watered down Central region. That SOS will rise to about .585 or maybe .590. I do not believe all 3 teams of Case, CMU and Chicago will finish ranked at the end because they would have all beaten up on each other. Even if Wash U goes 1-0-2 or 1-2-0 or 1-1-1 they will be IN. Say they go 1-1-1 they would finish 11-3-4 with a .585 SOS and a 3-1-1 RvR...That will be good enough IMO. More important is if they happen to go 3-0-0 and finish 13-2-3 they will be hosting for RD64/RD 32. Their problem is if they host usually you see the 1 or 2 West region teams heading there and that means a very tough RD32 game.



Case Western Reserve------------ELIMINATED unless they WIN the UAA....They MUST win the damn UAA so they kind of control their own destiny but need Brandeis to slip up.  They sit at 12-2-1 with an impressive 3-1-0 in the UAA....What is unimpressive is a .503 SOS which KILLS them. Those cupcake games in the beginning of the year have absolutely killed the SOS. So they sit at 12-2-1 with a .503 SOS and a 1-2-0 RvR....Not going to cut it anyway you slice it. They do finish at Chicago, at Wash U and v CMU. No doubt the SOS will rise to maybe .545 or a little less but that will not be good enough. If they go 3-0-0 to finish with a sitting at 15-2-1 that looks very good at a quick glance. However, the RvR at 1-2-0 would move to 3-2-0 as all 3 will not finished ranked. So 15-2-1 with a .545 SOS and 3-2-0 RvR will be given a glance by the committee and tossed as there are to many teams with better resumes. However, finishing 6-1-0 in the UAA would be impressive but they would need Brandeis to lose or draw a game as they lose that tiebreaker. NOTE---Case winning the UAA would absolutely steal a Pool C from someone else.



Brandeis----------IN......This resume is extremely impressive. 13-2-1 and 3-1-0 in the UAA with the BEST SOS in the country at .644 and a RvR at 4-2-1.  That mid-week game v a 3-11 Lasell team will drag the SOS down plus finishing at Rochester, at Emory and v NYU will also kind of drag the SOS down to maybe .620. They could go 0-3-0 and still get a Pool C finishing at 13-5-1 a .620 SOS and a RvR of 4-3-1..It would be playing with fire but they would most likely get IN. More importantly if they finish 3-0-0 and end up 16-2-1 with a .620 SOS and a 5-2-1 they POSSIBLY could host until the Final 4. Doubtful but possible. I would imagine they would LOVE that as they play so well on that home carpet. Easliy going to host RD64/32 and most likely will be on the move for RD16/RD8 at Amherst or Montclair St or somewhere.

+K Mr. Right well done. So what is your threshold for NCAA resumes if you were on the committee? What would you look for in terms as a base winning %, SOS, RvR, etc?

[Shooter McGavin]

The above question is for Mr. Right but I will chime in too as I know he appreciates my opinion now that we talk soccer and not about Skidmore, pine trees and hospital bills! 

My threshold would be .545 SOS, RvR need at least 1 win to even get a glance---.500 or better then for RvR, and winning % depends but I would go more off a record say 4 losses or less and you have my attention. 5 is borderline and I wouldn't want to put you in unless you have a very favorable SOS and RvR, 6+ you have no shot in my book.

That's why I think teams like Newark are DONE unless they win the NJAC and they might not even make playoffs. If you don't make playoffs in your conference then you don't deserve an NCAA bid in my book and I think that's fair no?   

[Mr.Right]

The above question is for Mr. Right but I will chime in too as I know he appreciates my opinion now that we talk soccer and not about Skidmore, pine trees and hospital bills! 

My threshold would be .545 SOS, RvR need at least 1 win to even get a glance---.500 or better then for RvR, and winning % depends but I would go more off a record say 4 losses or less and you have my attention. 5 is borderline and I wouldn't want to put you in unless you have a very favorable SOS and RvR, 6+ you have no shot in my book.

That's why I think teams like Newark are DONE unless they win the NJAC and they might not even make playoffs. If you don't make playoffs in your conference then you don't deserve an NCAA bid in my book and I think that's fair no?

I agree with some of this answer and disagree with other parts.

Agree---"If you do not make the playoffs in your conference then you do not deserve a bid". I am all for that and I might remember once or twice it happening but maybe FW would know better then me. It is usually a definite NO SHOT. That is why these leagues (the Liberty League and Centennial) I believe hurt themselves with these smaller tournaments. It gives a team like RPI no chance even though they deserve a chance because of their earlier work. It also hurts a league like the Centennial because some years they have a chance at 3 Pool C's and by making your league tournament smaller you take away more chances to bump your SOS and RvR.

DisAgree----The threshold is tougher to determine sometimes..There are always 1-2 teams that get in and make you scratch your head.  In 2013 we all know Williams got IN with 6 losses and Brandeis got IN with 5 losses. Why? Because of their RvR and the # of games they played Ranked opponents and both were top 5 in SOS. In 2011 Williams was left out with a 9-4-3 Record but the HIGHEST SOS in the country but also were 1-4-2 v Ranked. IMO it is better to play at least 6 ranked teams and go .500 or better against them. So a Rutgers Newark at 13-6-1 is most likely to many losses unless they tie and lose on PK's in the NJAC final. What I like about Newark is the SOS will be maybe .585-.590 BUT they will have played including NJAC tournament(if they get in) 9-10 games against Ranked opponents with right now a 4-3-1 record which could be 6-3-2 RvR assuming they make the NJAC playoffs and tie PK's in Final but lose the PK's...I mean 6 wins against ranked teams IS VERY hard to ignore and also playing 10 ranked teams is very hard to ignore. All that being said if you dissect their schedule they lost 1 to many games to the Top 4 in the NJAC.

This is also why the Mid-Atlantic region is concerning. I just broke down the UAA and compare their "bubble" teams to the Mid-Atlantic's bubble teams...It's not close. Etown, Eastern and even Lycoming just cannot compare in RvR and SOS. Haverford and F&M obviously do compare nicely. Now Dickinson is a bit different they could jump up if they finish strong. They are 9-3-3 with a .566 SOS but only a 0-2-1 RvR. However, they still get to play F&M and most likely could get to play 2 more ranked teams in the Centennial tournament. So not only will that SOS jump they have a chance to get some wins against Ranked opponents. So if they finish 12-3-4 and lose ok PK's in Centennial Final they will have a .585 SOS but possibly 3 wins v ranked. Mind you I do not believe Dickinson will do this but my point being is THEY have a CHANCE to do this while Lycoming DOES not. Lycoming cannot grab anymore ranked wins unless they beat Messiah but then they would have won the AQ anyway. So this is where the advantage in playing a top league with ranked teams can really help you at the end of the year. That is why that match that Lycoming had to cancel with Oneonta really hurts the SOS and a possible win that would have most likely gotten them off the bubble. This is the problem with playing in a weaker league you must try to properly schedule every year. Teams in top leagues do not need to worry as much about scheduling.

[blooter442]

If Rochester were to go clean, then I'll amend my earlier posts and say they'd be in a good position for a Pool C bid. But like Mr.Right said, I think they have one too many blemishes - three losses and five ties doesn't make for great reading - and they've made hard work of their UAA schedule so far. After their slow start to the season, I think Apple would have hoped for more than three ties and a loss in conference. The YellowJackets were no doubt under pressure to get results from both Carnegie AND Case, and while they got a tie at Carnegie they weren't able to get the win and then lost at Case. Also, the fact that they've not been regionally ranked either week is quite telling, and currently it seems they're in the doghouse.

They'll be up for this weekend. They beat Brandeis with, in my opinion, two absolute BS goals last year at home - one was a cross from the right that got shanked into the far top-corner, and the other was a corner kick that went straight in. Brandeis didn't play well, but Rochester got lucky and I doubt they're that lucky this time around. The fact that they haven't won a UAA game so far this year is telling (although I think that'll change against NYU.) They finished with a 3-3-1 conference record in 2011 and missed NCAAs for the first time in years, but if they were to go 3-1-3 this year (from their current 0-1-3) they might have a case. That said, they'll have to beat a defensively solid Brandeis team at home and Emory away, which is a tough place to go. And even then, it might not be enough.

[Mr.Right]

Yeah I think we both agree that Rochester is NOT going to go a clean 3-0-0 but IF they did somehow and finish 8-3-5 with a .620 SOS and 3-2-3 RvR not only will they be ranked after this week-end they could be #5. That SOS and 3 wins and 8 games v ranked IMO is very hard to ignore but just one to many ties and/or losses

[PaulNewman]

Mr.Right, I think your prediction on Case may be a little grim, but maybe not.  I will say you were one of the first, if not the first, to say that Case and Kenyon had to play that game and went so far as to basically guarantee that they would find a way to play.

Couple of points.  I joked, but joked seriously about Case cancelling the Waynesburg game and playing Kenyon instead.  That alone would count for a huge 28 game swing in their SoS, and that's BEFORE counting the multiplier for playing Kenyon away.  Case's SoS WILL go up like you indicated, and one has to think that Denison and/or DePauw will drop and CMU also may drop.  Denison is at risk of not even making the NCAC tourney.  Anyway, Case may need TMC and RHIT to win their AQs, but if they do, the last bid out of Great Lakes could go to the winner of the final day game between CMU and Case AT Case.

One other note that may expound on in the Great Lakes thread.  Coach Brown was the last regional cmte chair and their have been suggestions about better planning.  Case's coach, a very well trained (one would think) OWU grad, is NOW the cmte chair.  What would be the chance of the exiting and current cmte chairs both messing up so badly.  There is some bad luck there too.  A mere 2 weeks ago you and I both considered Case a near-lock, and they haven't lost a game since then.  Bottom line is I think it will be very difficult to keep Case out if they do decently these last 3 games.  There is no question in my mind that their overall resume trumps Denison, RHIT and CMU as of today, and maybe DePauw as well.  The 4 best teams in Great Lakes are Kenyon, TMC, OWU and Case.

[PaulNewman]

I also don't think even 3-0-0 gets UR in.  Probably gets them ranked in the last secret poll but not high enough to get a bid.

[Mr.Right]

I also don't think even 3-0-0 gets UR in.  Probably gets them ranked in the last secret poll but not high enough to get a bid.

I have to disagree. Looking at both resumes side by side if both teams go a clean 3-0-0 to finish. I like Rochester's better.


Rochester------8-3-5   .620 SOS and 3-2-3 RvR

Case-----------15-2-1  .540 SOS and 2-2-0 RvR


Let me BE CLEAR...Neither team realistically will go clean. Also, besides Wash U we cannot be sure CMU and Chicago will still be ranked if they beat them. That Kenyon v Case game which was cancelled in early October HAD TO BE replayed for both schools. If Case coach is the Great Lakes Chair he should of known this looking at his schedule. I don't care if you had to play a mid-week back to back just play the damn game. Ridiculous. Play neutral. Whatever get it in. Also, I have only seen Case once this year against Brandeis and they are NCAA tournament quality but they would be out in the RD64/RD32 w/o question. A decent side and you are right about their #2 who is a great player. Maybe I caught them on an off day but I saw NCAA tournament quality not a team with any chance of getting to a NCAA Final 4. None of this matters because quantitatively Case does not have the resume for a Pool C but they do have a realistic chance of winning the UAA if Brandeis can get a draw and they can go 3-0-0 so they are at the doorstep with the door slightly ajar.



     

[PaulNewman]

I also don't think even 3-0-0 gets UR in.  Probably gets them ranked in the last secret poll but not high enough to get a bid.

I have to disagree. Looking at both resumes side by side if both teams go a clean 3-0-0 to finish. I like Rochester's better.


Rochester------8-3-5   .620 SOS and 3-2-3 RvR

Case-----------15-2-1  .540 SOS and 2-2-0 RvR


Let me BE CLEAR...Neither team realistically will go clean. Also, besides Wash U we cannot be sure CMU and Chicago will still be ranked if they beat them. That Kenyon v Case game which was cancelled in early October HAD TO BE replayed for both schools. If Case coach is the Great Lakes Chair he should of known this looking at his schedule. I don't care if you had to play a mid-week back to back just play the damn game. Ridiculous. Play neutral. Whatever get it in. Also, I have only seen Case once this year against Brandeis and they are NCAA tournament quality but they would be out in the RD64/RD32 w/o question. A decent side and you are right about their #2 who is a great player. Maybe I caught them on an off day but I saw NCAA tournament quality not a team with any chance of getting to a NCAA Final 4. None of this matters because quantitatively Case does not have the resume for a Pool C but they do have a realistic chance of winning the UAA if Brandeis can get a draw and they can go 3-0-0 so they are at the doorstep with the door slightly ajar.

We'll just have to agree to disagree a little on this one.  The RvR would be close but 15-2-1 looks much, much better than 8-3-5.  Remember, we're not talking about a 15-2-1 PS-Behrend or Roger Williams.  These are both UAA teams.  Also, remember that Case and UR are fighting for rank in different regions.  I see a scenario where Case gets themselves up to the 2nd or 3rd at large spot out of Great Lakes if the other teams mentioned get their AQs as expected.  Where I do agree with you is that Case is a very solid, good team and not a great team....about a round of 32 team although you can always have fortune and win a game you shouldn't 1-0 or advance in PKs (as Rochester almost did last year against F&M).

[Shooter McGavin]

Good stuff from all of the above. Thanks for the input Mr. Right. Big weekend for all the teams nationwide.

[Mr.Right]

Hmmm..what game to watch tonight in the UAA.

Well I am not paying to watch Rochester play NYU so that is out.

Since the others all have an hour difference we can take a peek at all of them

[Mr.Right]

Brandeis v Emory a good game with both teams keeping it on the carpet, however neither team with to many chances.

[Mr.Right]

Brandeis playing so well with some nice combinations but they cannot get anything off in the final 3rd. Viera working his ass off.