UAA 2015

[Mr.Right]

Do not give me any crap about Nescac teams and a "free pass"

Maybe 2010 Bowdoin but that is it.

2009- Williams went thru RPI, York and CNU

2012 and 2013 both Williams and Amherst met in the elite 8 but they both dispatched of top Centennial, LL and UAA squads.

2014-Tufts ---They didnt play 1 Nescac side.

[blooter442]

One argument that I don't think I've seen mentioned about why UAA teams historically don't seem to make as many deep runs in the tournament is that because the conference is so geographically spread out, the different UAA teams are usually sent to different regions. This actually decreases the chances of any one of them making a deep run because UAA teams don't ever meet each other in the tournament. Contrast that with other conferences like NESCAC where you will often find multiple teams from the NESCAC in the same region. Naturally that will increase the chances of any one of these NESCAC schools to make a deep run because you will see NCAA matchups between NESCAC schools in the tournament, which in essence gives a "free" pass to a NESCAC team on to the next round. UAA teams never get these free passes of one of their teams moving on to the next round because they never meet each other in the tournament. Not saying there is no validity to other arguments, but just something to think about.

Can't say I agree with the "free pass" argument, and I personally think that UAA teams just haven't been scrappy enough (which you can read about in my previous post.) However, I do think that nw_ds raises a good point about all of the NESCACs being in the same region. When an entire conference is in the same part of the bracket, it can (not does, can) increase the chances that that particular conference is represented further down the road, at least mathematically.

Think about this: While certain teams are favored, the mathematical odds of your team winning a game (whether in regulation, overtime, or PKs) is at 50 percent. You have to win four games to get to the Final Four. That means that any one team has, mathematically, a 1/16 chance (1/2 ^ 4 = 1/16) of getting to the Final Four. If, say, four teams from the same conference are spread out in each region, the odds of a team reaching the Final Four remain at 1/16. But if you were to have all four teams in the same region, then there is a 1/4 chance that one of those four teams gets all the way to the Final Four. Three teams = 3/16. Two teams = 1/8. The number of teams selected from any given conference varies year-on-year, but when you load all of the teams from one conference into one quadrant of the bracket, as opposed to putting one in each quadrant, the mathematical odds that one of those teams gets to the Final Four goes up.

Obviously, there are times where UAA teams will get put in the same quadrant of the bracket, and regardless of the mathematical odds or the opponent you have to win those games, so this is not a perfect hypothetical situation. Additionally, soccer is not a sport where mathematical odds determine outcomes - there are significant intangibles. However, what cannot be argued is that a 25 percent chance is significantly better (four times, in fact) than a 6.25 percent chance, so I think there is some merit to nw_ds' point.

Regardless, the NESCAC teams have gotten it done when the UAA teams haven't, and that's what it comes down to.

[nw_ds]

Blooter I think we actually agree on this as this is basically what I was saying. To be clear, I'm not trying to suggest that any individual teams from the NESCAC (or other conferences I was just using NESCAC as an example) get free passes through in the tournament, only that it's a fact that when two teams from the same conference play each other one of them has to advance, so essentially the conference does get a pass on one of its teams to the next round. Like you said its more a mathematical argument than anything else.

[blooter442]

Like you said its more a mathematical argument than anything else.

Right. I still think it has more to do with the fact that UAA teams haven't been able to grind it out in close contests as well as NESCAC teams have been able to do, but there is a mathematical component to it that perhaps does have some merit.

[nw_ds]

Yep, you won't get any arguments from me as to that. It seems like more often than not UAA teams are knocked out in the first or second round to teams that I would personally expect them to beat.

[blooter442]

Brandeis (AQ), Carnegie, and WashU all number one in each of their respective regions. Those, ladies and gentlemen, are the three NCAA bids.

...unless Chicago beats WashU, the world falls apart, and somehow bid #19 goes to them. Ain't gonna happen.

[NERevs127]

Brandeis (AQ), Carnegie, and WashU all number one in each of their respective regions. Those, ladies and gentlemen, are the three NCAA bids.

...unless Chicago beats WashU, the world falls apart, and somehow bid #19 goes to them. Ain't gonna happen.

Chicago always has one of the top 10/top 5 SOS in the country so this may help them out if they can get a result against Wash U. What's more exciting is that we might have 3 UAA schools host the first two rounds of the tournament as Brandeis, Carnegie and Wash U are all #1 ranked in their regions. Brandeis might get home field all the way up to the Final Four is NYU doesn't bring their SOS down too far and they get the Win.

[NERevs127]

UAA Pick'Em - Last round of the year
Home team listed second

Rochester 1-0 Emory
NYU 0-2 Brandeis
Wash U 0-1 Chicago
Carnegie 2-1 Case

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Rochester 1-0 Emory
NYU 0-3 Brandeis
Wash U 1-1 Chicago
Carnegie 1-0 Case

[blooter442]

Chicago always has one of the top 10/top 5 SOS in the country so this may help them out if they can get a result against Wash U. What's more exciting is that we might have 3 UAA schools host the first two rounds of the tournament as Brandeis, Carnegie and Wash U are all #1 ranked in their regions. Brandeis might get home field all the way up to the Final Four is NYU doesn't bring their SOS down too far and they get the Win.

Good point, and perhaps I was being hyperbolic in my initial point. Chicago is a good team - they got robbed this year against Brandeis, but I think Brandeis would have felt that it was karmic revenge (not saying I 100% believe in that stuff, but still) for Chicago winning the UAA last year against a more talented Brandeis side that went a very good 5-2 in conference (Chicago was 5-0-2 in conference, but 11-5-2 on the season, while Brandeis was 17-2.) Still, even though they're not top 5/10 material IMHO as they were ranked earlier this year, Chicago is legit, and a win over the #1 ranked team in their region could be telling, and if nothing else would certainly raise its profile.

The way I see it, Amherst still has a great shot of hosting to the Final Four (as Bowdoin did in 2010, even though it didn't win the NESCAC), but Brandeis has a good chance the more and more I think about it. Could go either way.

[Mr.Right]

Rochester 0-0 Emory---The battle of which team will quit first
NYU 0-1 Brandeis-------Why change things now.
Wash U 1-2 Chicago----Chicago in their own mind still thinks it has a chance.
Carnegie 0-1 Case------Just when CMU won everyone over Case interrupts the GL region AGAIN.

[blooter442]

I didn't partake up to this point, but better late than never. Away team first, as seems to be SOP on this board.

Rochester 1-1 Emory - Both teams playing for pride. Surprising for the Yellowjackets, who are - for the first time in memory - out of contention for an NCAA bid before the final day of the season. They are always a tough out no matter who they're playing, but I think they draw yet another game.

NYU 0-1 Brandeis - Brandeis has already wrapped up the UAA title. Despite NYU putting up a good battle for pride, the Judges will get their customary goal per game, and while their confidence will have been boosted by the conference title I still didn't see any change to the goalscoring challenges. Maybe that will change? Who knows.

Wash U 0-1 Chicago - This is where things get interesting. The top two games are teams that have either wrapped up their postseason, or have nothing left to play for. But while I think WashU is a pretty safe bet as #1 seed, I'll amend my earlier statement and say a Chicago win could put them back in contention.

Carnegie 0-1 Case - Case, like I've seen with Williams, Wesleyan, and WPI, has had some rotten luck this year, and it appears to have cost them an NCAA bid. But I still think they're equally talented as Carnegie, and Cveko is a great player. Being at home will give the Spartans the edge.

[swibbles]

My UAA Pick-em

Rochester 0-0 Emory
NYU 1-4 Brandeis
Wash U 2-3 Chicago
Carnegie 0-1 Case

[CovensCorner]

UAA Pick-em

Rochester 2-0 Emory
NYU 0-1 Brandeis
Wash U 1-1 Chicago
Carnegie 0-1 Case

You have to respect all whom are picking Brandeis to score more than a goal.

[swibbles]

UAA Pick-em

Rochester 2-0 Emory
NYU 0-1 Brandeis
Wash U 1-1 Chicago
Carnegie 0-1 Case

You have to respect all whom are picking Brandeis to score more than a goal.

Have a look at NYU's defensive record.  That defense ships goals.