Pool C -- 2015

[wally_wabash]

Ok, let's try something new.  In a few weeks, we'll start talking about who might be going to be IN the tournament.  Between now and then, I thought it would be interesting to see who's already OUT of the tournament.  Some caveats:
- Basically all of these teams can still technically win their league and qualify through Pool A.  That's not what this is.  This is an at-large eliminator.  What I've tried to do here is identify teams that are out of consideration for Pools B and C. 
- My methodology here has tried to err on the side of inclusion, even if the odds for some of these teams putting together a Pool B/C profile are already very slim.  So you'll see some teams down here in green and say "come on...they aren't making it in".  You're probably right.  But we'll eliminate those teams as it happens. 
- There were plenty of teams riding the fence here and thumbs up/thumbs down broke different ways for different reasons.  I'll try to highlight some of them in a later post. 

Thanks to ExTartanPlayer and Bombers798891 for extra eyes on this and making sure I'm reasonably consistent.  That's a lot of teams and lot of leagues to sort through and this is probably a mess without the extra help.  And with that, I present the first Pool B/C Eliminator table, arranged by region and conference.  Teams that I believe are out of at-large contention are in red, teams that I believe are still alive are in green, and Pool B eligible teams are marked with an asterisk(*), all as of Week 4 results.

CCIW	HCAC	MIAA	NACC	NCAC	OAC
Carthage	Earlham	Hope	Cocnordia(Wis)	Allegheny	Muskingum
Augustana	Hanover	Alma	Aurora	Hiram	Marietta
North Park	Bluffton	Kalamazoo	Wis Lutheran	Wooster	Heidelberg
Millikin	Anderson	Adrian	Benedictine	Oberlin	Wilmington
North Central	Defiance	Trine	Lakeland	OWU	B-W
Elmhurst	MSJ	Olivet	CUC	Kenyon	Otterbein
Wheaton	Manchester	Albion	Rockford	Witt	Capital
IWU	Franklin			Denison	ONU
	RHIT			Wabash	Mount Union
				DePauw	John Carroll

IIAC	IND	MIAC	MWC	NWC	SCIAC	UMAC	WIAC
BVC	Finlandia*	St. Olaf	Lawrence	L&C	Redlands	IWC	Eau Claire
Dubuque	Maranatha*	Carleton	Macalester	Willamette	Chapman	Martin Luther	River Falls
Loras		Hamline	Carroll	PLU	Whittier	Greenville	La Crosse
Coe		Augsburg	Ripon	UPS	P-PC	Crown	Stout
Simpson		C-MC	Beloit	Pacific	CMS	MacMurray	SP
Luther		St. John's	Grinnell	George Fox	Laverne	Eureka	Oshkosh
Central		Bethel	Lake Forest	Whitworth	Occidental	Minn-Morris	Platteville
Wartburg		St. Thomas	IC	Linfield	Cal Lutheran	SSC	Whitewater
		Gustavus Adolphus	Cornell			Westminster
			Knox			Northwestern
			Monmouth
			St. Norbert

ASC	CC	ODAC	PAC	SAA	SCAC	USAC
LC*	McDaniel	Randolph-Macon	Grove City	Sewanee	Southwestern*	Averett
Bellhaven*	Juniata	Catholic	Thiel	Millsaps	Austin*	Ferrum
HPU*	Dickinson	E&H	Waynesburg	Hendrix	TLU*	NCWC
SRSU*	Ursinus	Bridgewater	CMU	Rhodes	Trinity*	LaGrange
McMurry*	Susquehenna	H-SC	Bethany	WashU		Greensboro
ETBU*	Muhlenberg	W&L	St. Vincent	B-SC		Huntingdon
UMHB*	Moravian	Shenandoah	Westminster	Centre		Methodist
H-SU*	Gettysburg	Guilford	Geneva	Berry		Maryville
	F&M		CWRU	Chicago
	Johns Hopkins		Thomas More
			W&J

ECFC	Empire 8	IND	LL	MAC	MASCAC	NEFC	NJAC
Mount Ida	Buffalo St.	Alfred St.*	Union	Misericordia	Worcester State	Curry	So Virginia
Anna Maria	Hartwick		St. Lawrence	Wilkes	Plymouth State	Nichols	TCNJ
Norwich	SJF		RPI	Leb Valley	Westfield State	Maine Maritime	Montclair St.
Gallaudet	Utica		USMMA	Lycoming	Bridgewater St.	Salve Regina	Salisbury
Husson	Morrisville St.		Springfield	King's	Western Conn.	MIT	WPU
Castleton	Brockport St.		WPI	FDU-F	Mass-Dartmouth	Endicott	CNU
Becker	Alfred		Hobart	Widener	Mass-Maritime	Coast Guard	Frostburg St.
SUNY-MC	Ithaca		Rochester	Del Valley	Framingham St.	Western NE	Rowan
	Cortland St.			Albright	Fitchburg State		Kean
				Stevenson			Wesley

[ExTartanPlayer]

This was a fun exercise. Two nuances worth pointing out:

1) As we reviewed this, I had to remind myself several times that the goal was figuring out who was eliminated from Pool C contention, not from playoff contention altogether.  I think Franklin is the best obvious example to cite here.  Franklin certainly could win out and make the playoffs at 8-2 as the HCAC Pool A, but they would have to lose another game to end up in Pool C and if they're 7-3 they probably are on the board behind a couple of 9-1 teams in the North with a h2h loss against possible fellow Pool C'er IWU.  Franklin might well get into the dance this year, but it won't be happening through Pool C.

2) On the flip side, consider a team like Hartwick.  They are 2-1 with a loss to Brockport State.  The odds of Hartwick making it are pretty darn long.  But, nonetheless, we kept them in the "maybe" column because they could (however improbable it is) finish 9-1 and not win the E8 depending on tiebreakers.  The odds of that happening are about 1,000,000 to 1.  But they technically still could have that occur.

The point is, this exercise reflects who can still qualify through Pool C as of today, not necessarily who has the best chance to make the playoffs.  It's not a projection or a ranking of who has the best chance.  Just a list of who is still alive for Pool C and who is AQ or bust at this point.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Is it not possible for North Central to at least be up for consideration for a C? Obviously they have 2 losses already and would have to pick up a 3rd... but if their losses are in OT to Platteville (who if they pull an upset this week and go unbeaten would definitely help NCC), 1 point to Wesley, and another tight game against say an unbeaten Wheaton and rack up convincing wins against IWU and Elmhurst... that would be an intriguing resume.
I don't see a lot of good C teams in the north right now... MIAA could beat each other out of contention, OAC could do the same. Depending on how the north committee ranks the teams, couldn't they could conceivably be 2nd or 3rd in line in the north and perhaps get to the discussion table?

[wally_wabash]

Is it not possible for North Central to at least be up for consideration for a C? Obviously they have 2 losses already and would have to pick up a 3rd... but if their losses are in OT to Platteville (who if they pull an upset this week and go unbeaten would definitely help NCC), 1 point to Wesley, and another tight game against say an unbeaten Wheaton and rack up convincing wins against IWU and Elmhurst... that would be an intriguing resume.
I don't see a lot of good C teams in the north right now... MIAA could beat each other out of contention, OAC could do the same. Depending on how the north committee ranks the teams, couldn't they could conceivably be 2nd or 3rd in line in the north and perhaps get to the discussion table?

Whereas no 3-loss team has ever been selected (and I'm not even sure that we've had 3-loss teams as part of the first four out group), I'm saying that North Central is out of play for Pool C.  I'm not bold enough in this space to break a never-ever tendency.  That's the tough break for North Central.  If the Cardinals had managed to close just one of those two games that they led, they'd not only be in play still, but they'd probably look pretty good if they were to lose somewhere in the CCIW.  But they didn't and they don't.  It's Pool A or bust for NCC. 

The really interesting scenario crops up if IWU or Wheaton, DePauw, Wittenberg, and John Carroll all find a way to lose twice...would the committee make North Central the top ranked at-large team at 7-3?  And if they did would they picked?  I still say they wouldn't get picked (I think they'd run into blockage from whatever WIAC team is on the board...and heaven forbid Rowan wins the NJAC), but that would be an interesting scenario to try and play out.  But again, there's a LOT of stuff that needs to happen before we get to that point. 

[HSCTiger74]

Wally, I really appreciate all the hard work that you, ETP and Bombers put into this, and there's no doubt in my mind that you were all as objective as possible. I do have to ask, though, as someone who is red/green colorblind .... you couldn't have used other colors? 

[ExTartanPlayer]

Just to reiterate what Wally said, no 7-3 team has ever made it.  That was the easy rationale to me.  Heck, it's been a pleasant surprise to most when the committee includes a tough-schedule 2-loss team.  2013 Thomas More stayed home with a competitive non-league loss to Wesley and a loss to W & J.  NCC's losses have been a little closer, but if you lose three times, I don't know if it matters that you lost to #1, #2, and #3 in the nation in overtime. 

The nearest comp for this scenario is probably 2011 Oshkosh, who lost a competitive-ish game to Mount Union, a 20-17 heartbreaker to Whitewater, and then 30-24 to...well, 3-7 La Crosse.

NCC's profile in this hypothetical would be a little bit different.  Instead of losing to national #1, national #2, and not-so-good...they could potentially be 7-3 with losses to three undefeated Pool A teams (although UWP may lose to UWW this week, we are working under the "best case" assumption for every team's Pool C chances, or at least the "best remotely possible case"). 

Let's suppose they lose to Wheaton in overtime but pound IWU.  Now here's another interesting question: would they be better off with IWU beating Wheaton (putting both of those teams at 9-1, say that Wheaton gets the Pool A via tiebreaker) because maybe that ensures IWU remains regionally ranked and gives them a nice RR win?  Would the committee be bold enough to rank 7-3 NCC ahead of 9-1 IWU because of the H2H result?  What about 8-2 IWU?  I think ultimately the best scenario for them is an OT loss to Wheaton, a blowout win of IWU, and Wheaton beating IWU...because I can see the committee maybe ranking 7-3 NCC ahead of 8-2 IWU with a h2h win, but I do not think it would override a 2-win gap.

Now let's look elsewhere around the North.  What else would have to happen to get NCC far enough up the totem pole?  I honestly cannot imagine that they would be ranked ahead of a 9-1 team in the RR's, so let's see if we can concoct a scenario where everyone else ends up with two losses.

- all OAC teams would have to lose 2 or more times.  Certainly possible - John Carroll has been uninspiring to date.

- all MIAA teams but the league champion would have to lose 2 or more times.  This seems likely with the way the last few seasons have gone in the MIAA; only Olivet and Albion got through non-league play unscathed so as long as one of them loses to someone else in the league there should be no 9-1 runnerup.

- all NCAC teams but the league champion would have to lose 2 or more times.  Suppose Wabash runs the table and wins the league.  This means DePauw has to beat Denison, Denison has to beat Wittenberg, and Wittenberg has to beat DePauw (or something similar) to make sure no one ends up 9-1 from that group.

- all NACC teams but the league champion would have to lose 2 or more times.  This will happen.

- RHIT has to beat Franklin for the HCAC title, or if Franklin beats RHIT, then RHIT has to lose to someone else.  Both of these are probably plausible.

Now even if all of that happens and nobody in the North Region Pool C field is 9-1, the regional committee has to look at that and decide to rank NCC ahead of all of the 8-2 teams on the board.  I think they would have to be on the board first because in the hypothetical where literally all of those teams end up 8-2 or worse, would any of them go into the field in the first few rounds of discussion?  NCC cannot get in if they're not on the board.  So let's assume that JCU drops a game to, uh, Wilmington, the NCAC teams all beat each other and then OWU steps in and beats them all too, the MIAA cannibalizes itself, RHIT beats Franklin 61-0, and NCC ends up beating out 8-2 IWU with a h2h win to get first on the board from the North.

Now let's consider (not in that level of granularity) the other regions.  There would have to be an extreme paucity of 1-loss teams (and quality 2-loss) from around the country, too.  Here, I'm not sure if NCC should be hoping for 1-loss runners-up and then a big dropoff or a bunch of 2-loss teams from some of the tough leagues.  Take the MIAC.  Are they better off if St. John's and St. Thomas beat everyone and everyone else beats each other and they only have to deal with 9-1 SJU in the at-large pool?  (basically, trading off the fact that they will not be ahead of the first MIAC team on the board for a guarantee that they wouldn't lose out to 2 of them)  Or are they better off if SJU loses again and there's possibly 8-2 SJU and 8-2 Gustavus Adolphus both on the board, hoping to leapfrog both of them?  Same with the WIAC (although for the purposes of our hypothetical, we should give them the best case scenario, which is UWP winning the league), so maybe they want UWP to win the league, 9-1 UWW, and everyone else to lose three or more games.

If we work really hard, we might be able to concoct a scenario that's still in play where 7-3 North Central gets in.  Incidentally, that North Region armageddon above probably isn't that far-fetched.  The question then becomes would the committee actually put 7-3 NCC on the board ahead of all of those 8-2 teams.  I don't think they would have a chance unless they're the first North team on the table.

[art76]

Thanx Wally, ExTartan and Bombers for going through this exercise. It'll be interesting to see how the teams turn from green to red (or some other colors) as the weeks unfold.

[wally_wabash]

Wally, I really appreciate all the hard work that you, ETP and Bombers put into this, and there's no doubt in my mind that you were all as objective as possible. I do have to ask, though, as someone who is red/green colorblind .... you couldn't have used other colors? 

Oof.  I'll update that table tonight with some additional formatting (probably bold the teams still alive).  Sorry about that!

[ExTartanPlayer]

It'll be interesting to see how the teams turn from green to red (or some other colors) as the weeks unfold.

I think that's why wally got the idea, or at least why it appealed to me.  The day the season kicks off, all 247 teams (theoretically) have a path to the playoffs through Pool A, B, and C. 

Interestingly enough, Pool A remains open for awhile for everyone because even if you lose your first 2 league games, you can still come into play if your conference has a lot of internal strife and you rip off a winning streak.

However, we know that pretty much just by the law of "someone has to win games" across the nation, Pool C teams are almost all going to be 9-1 conference runners-up or 8-2 teams with some extra punch, like a big OOC win or a couple of good results against RRO's (the aforementioned potentially 7-3 NCC being one very-very-very-very-very long shot at bucking this trend).  So we can look at a team like Alma, who is 2-1 but still alive for the MIAA title, and say that they're probably out because they would be an 8-2 runner-up with a weak SOS and no quality wins.  If you have multiple losses, who have to have one of those things.  Alma is out as a Pool C candidate.

So while it's hard to pin down who is eliminated from the playoffs altogether (and conversely, the number of teams "still alive") until we have moved into conference play, we probably do have a decent idea of who is still alive for a Pool C bid because they probably have to fit that profile of "9-1 or 8-2 with a good result and/or tough schedule" and we know that a team like Franklin or NCC can't get there because if they are in Pool C they would be 7-3, a team like Alma probably doesn't have enough oomph to make it at 8-2, while everyone in green still at least has a theoretical path to that minimum bar of "9-1 league runner-up" or "8-2 with an extra line on the resume."

[wally_wabash]

Breaking down the number of teams still alive by region:
North - 12
West - 15
South - 27
East - 28

So after three games for most, four for some, we've eliminated 2/3 of the division from Pools B/C.  That's interesting to me. 

One more follow up on North Central- you saw the gymnastics ETP had to do just to get North Central near the top of the North region queue.  You'd have to see similar armageddon scenarios in every other region to clear a path for North Central to have a shot.  It really isn't feasible. 

[USee]

For this reason I would also doubt the regional committee would rank NCC #1 as a 3 loss team if there are other 2 loss teams available simply because they would effectively block all north teams from getting in. Great analysis here.

[ExTartanPlayer]

One more follow up on North Central- you saw the gymnastics ETP had to do just to get North Central near the top of the North region queue.  You'd have to see similar armageddon scenarios in every other region to clear a path for North Central to have a shot.  It really isn't feasible.

I guess that's one caveat we should acknowledge up front - no matter what we do here there's some sort of imaginary line about what's feasible and what's not.  Somehow I view it as different with a not-very-good team that could still end up 9-1 (like Hartwick) because however unlikely it seems to us that they will actually go 9-1, they control their own destiny, for now.  The path is simpler - win the rest and they can at least lay claim to a spot on the board at 9-1, no dependency on contingency scenarios around the region, much less the country.

If NCC ends up 7-3 in Pool C, they will need, like, hundreds of games for the rest of the season around the nation to fall into place.  We have to construct a scenario where everyone in the North Pool C ends up 8-2 (maybe 1 team at 9-1), and where the regional committee puts NCC atop that heap (even with four "results" against RRO's, they will have only one win against an RRO), and where every other region has a similar path that results in a complete dearth of 9-1 Pool C's (what's the lowest number of 1-loss teams eligible for Pool C in recent history?  There have been at least 5 every year, right?  Maybe some years as many as 10?) and then a dearth of quality 8-2 Pool C's, to the point where a three-loss team would jump all of them.  Just can't see it.

[wabndy]

If you are following this postseason thread now (its still September for #!@&#$ sake) then you won't want to miss perusing the erudite prose that is the NCAA prechampionship manual for 2015. At least the intern assigned to fat finger the manual this year knew enough to leave the NESCAC out of Pool A.  We also get our official confirmation of 25 in Pool A, 1 in Pool B, and 6 in Pool C.

The other highlight from the manual is the names on the regional advisory committees and national selection committee who each promise, cross their heart and hope to die, in no way shape or form to crib off of Wally Wabash's work on this board and pinkie swears to not sandbag the selection process by giving weaker teams a higher regional ranking and further promise to consider each round of the Pool C selection independently of the previous ones, even if 4 north region teams in a row get bids.

Those in bold are the national selection committee members

EAST REGION
John Marzka, Albright
Jack McKiernon, Kean
Mike Licthen, Becker
Chad Martinovich, MIT
Mark Raymond, St. Lawrence
Mark Ross, Misericordia
Norm Kieffer, St. John Fisher
Tom Kelley, Framingham State
Dan Garrett, Kean

NORTH REGION
Erik Raeburn, Wabash
Chris Martin, CCIW
Patrick Etherton, Millikin
Mike Leonard, Franklin
Greg Pscodna, Alma
Jack Hatem, Denison
Rick Ponx, Aurora
John Snell, Baldwin Wallace

SOUTH REGION
Darla Kirby, Mary Hardin-Baylor
Jack Leipheimer, Thiel
Dennis Dunn, Louisiana College
Steve Ulrich, Centennial Conference
Dave Dunn, Catholic
Danny Padron, Texas Lutheran
Kurt Reiser, Thiel
Tommy Laurendine, University of the South (Sewanee)
Dave Harper, Ferrum

WEST REGION
Duey Naatz, Wisconsin-Stout
Rodney Sandberg, Whitworth
Chuck Yrigoyen, Iowa Intercollegiate Conf.
Glen Caruso, St. Thomas (MN)
Jim Cantanzaro, Lake Forest
Chris Casey, George Fox
Kyle Sweeney, Claremont-Mudd-Scripps
Clayt Birmingham, Wisconsin-Stout
Kirk Talley, Northwestern-St. Paul

[wally_wabash]

Thank you for posting a link to the handbook, wabndy.  I'm glad that it finally puts to rest the question regarding the regionality of the teams that did some conference relocating. 

Other than that I didn't see any real changes to the selection criteria on my first pass through.  I'll go through it again later with a closer eye though. 

[ExTartanPlayer]

At least the intern assigned to fat finger the manual this year knew enough to leave the NESCAC out of Pool A.

Good to see that Nebraska Wesleyan is still listed, though