Pool C -- 2015

[wally_wabash]

Not that I have a say in the selections, but if I did, I'd have to eliminate UWP from Pool C contention for the same reason I would have eliminated TLU from Pool C contention last year.  The regular season is important, and it's very much like an audition for the world to see how well a team stacks up against the best competition.  UWP lost badly to UWO.  Even though I think it's likely they would be a favorite against a couple Pool C teams this year (assuming committee uses same criteria as it has), I can't reward a team that so miserably failed such an important audition.

I actually posed to Wally that we include, essentially, the "resumes" of recent 2-loss Pool C teams, so we'd have something to guide our process with teams like that. If/when he gets that up, we might have some more info to help that decision. I think for now, we've tried to air on the side of caution with 2-loss teams who might have a few positive checks the committee is looking for, but you might be right on UWP.

I think I'll go ahead and do this ahead of my Pool B/C projection this week.  Once we get all of the regional fan polls posted (which will be surrogate regional rankings this week),  we'll put up profiles for the two loss teams that we have still alive in the eliminator. 

[jknezek]

Not that I have a say in the selections, but if I did, I'd have to eliminate UWP from Pool C contention for the same reason I would have eliminated TLU from Pool C contention last year.  The regular season is important, and it's very much like an audition for the world to see how well a team stacks up against the best competition.  UWP lost badly to UWO.  Even though I think it's likely they would be a favorite against a couple Pool C teams this year (assuming committee uses same criteria as it has), I can't reward a team that so miserably failed such an important audition.

I actually posed to Wally that we include, essentially, the "resumes" of recent 2-loss Pool C teams, so we'd have something to guide our process with teams like that. If/when he gets that up, we might have some more info to help that decision. I think for now, we've tried to air on the side of caution with 2-loss teams who might have a few positive checks the committee is looking for, but you might be right on UWP.

I think I'll go ahead and do this ahead of my Pool B/C projection this week.  Once we get all of the regional fan polls posted (which will be surrogate regional rankings this week),  we'll put up profiles for the two loss teams that we have still alive in the eliminator.

I don't think the fan polls work real well as Regional Ranking surrogates but I can see how it would make your life easier. Criteria is simply too different.

[wally_wabash]

Not that I have a say in the selections, but if I did, I'd have to eliminate UWP from Pool C contention for the same reason I would have eliminated TLU from Pool C contention last year.  The regular season is important, and it's very much like an audition for the world to see how well a team stacks up against the best competition.  UWP lost badly to UWO.  Even though I think it's likely they would be a favorite against a couple Pool C teams this year (assuming committee uses same criteria as it has), I can't reward a team that so miserably failed such an important audition.

I actually posed to Wally that we include, essentially, the "resumes" of recent 2-loss Pool C teams, so we'd have something to guide our process with teams like that. If/when he gets that up, we might have some more info to help that decision. I think for now, we've tried to air on the side of caution with 2-loss teams who might have a few positive checks the committee is looking for, but you might be right on UWP.

I think I'll go ahead and do this ahead of my Pool B/C projection this week.  Once we get all of the regional fan polls posted (which will be surrogate regional rankings this week),  we'll put up profiles for the two loss teams that we have still alive in the eliminator.

I don't think the fan polls work real well as Regional Ranking surrogates but I can see how it would make your life easier. Criteria is simply too different.

I'm going to allow myself the latitude to make adjustments where there are egregious...errors isn't the right word...oversights of the criteria, let's say.  I don't know if I'll have to do much tweaking (I think I can more or less buy what the fan pollsters are putting together right now...the people participating in those exercises are really thoughtful), but we won't do anything crazy here like pretend that North Central is toward the front of the at-large line in the North.  That might be the only weird case, really. 

[jknezek]

I can see that. The one I found surprising is right now I'd have Moravian or Hendrix as the first candidate on the table for the South by the current criteria. Since neither are in the SRFP as of last week, it surprised me when I looked at current SOS and RRO numbers. Moravian gets Gettysburg and Muhlenberg to come, so that could change things, but Hendrix is pretty much clear sailing to the end of the season.

Lots of games to play, but little things like that are strange right now.

[Bombers798891]

On one of the boards, PAC maybe? I played around with a mock South Region Committee ranking given the info we have right now. Not accounting for anything that might happen going forward. I was surprised that I ended up with two 2 loss teams over a host of one loss teams, but when looking at how the RRO dominoes fell and SOS it seemed almost inevitable. Granted they were teams 9 and 10 and probably wouldn't see the board, but it was hard to ignore them based on the criteria.

Yeah, as the season's gone on, the thought process on two-loss teams has morphed slowly from a "We can't just eliminate two-loss teams yet, no matter how lousy we think they are" to "Give us a reason why you should be up here". Wally and ETP know a lot more about the big picture than me, so they've done almost all that lifting, but I can tell you they're following an internal logic and trying to think about criteria in these calls.

[wally_wabash]

I can see that. The one I found surprising is right now I'd have Moravian or Hendrix as the first candidate on the table for the South by the current criteria. Since neither are in the SRFP as of last week, it surprised me when I looked at current SOS and RRO numbers. Moravian gets Gettysburg and Muhlenberg to come, so that could change things, but Hendrix is pretty much clear sailing to the end of the season.

Lots of games to play, but little things like that are strange right now.

Barring a weird second loss somewhere, I think the loser of the UMHB-HSU game this weekend should and will be the first Pool C team available from the South (with the winner obviously getting the Pool B invitation).  Past that, it gets weird and difficult in the South for sure- thanks in large part to Chicago, who couldn't possibly be any less South. 

[jknezek]

I can see that. The one I found surprising is right now I'd have Moravian or Hendrix as the first candidate on the table for the South by the current criteria. Since neither are in the SRFP as of last week, it surprised me when I looked at current SOS and RRO numbers. Moravian gets Gettysburg and Muhlenberg to come, so that could change things, but Hendrix is pretty much clear sailing to the end of the season.

Lots of games to play, but little things like that are strange right now.

Barring a weird second loss somewhere, I think the loser of the UMHB-HSU game this weekend should and will be the first Pool C team available from the South (with the winner obviously getting the Pool B invitation).  Past that, it gets weird and difficult in the South for sure- thanks in large part to Chicago, who couldn't possibly be any less South.

You are right. That's what I had but I forgot only one of them would hit the table since both are undefeated. Still, probably looking at 0-1 RRO and not a great SOS for either, since TLU is sitting on an 0-2, not so good SOS right now either, they may not even hit the rankings. Of the two loss teams, TLU had a pretty bad SOS for whatever reason and if Hendrix and Chicago end up ranked they have better RRO records and higher SOS numbers. Of course UMHB has the worst SOS of the undefeated South teams right now. All that will change obviously.

[Mr. Ypsi]

I can see that. The one I found surprising is right now I'd have Moravian or Hendrix as the first candidate on the table for the South by the current criteria. Since neither are in the SRFP as of last week, it surprised me when I looked at current SOS and RRO numbers. Moravian gets Gettysburg and Muhlenberg to come, so that could change things, but Hendrix is pretty much clear sailing to the end of the season.

Lots of games to play, but little things like that are strange right now.

Barring a weird second loss somewhere, I think the loser of the UMHB-HSU game this weekend should and will be the first Pool C team available from the South (with the winner obviously getting the Pool B invitation).  Past that, it gets weird and difficult in the South for sure- thanks in large part to Chicago, who couldn't possibly be any less South.

Well, as Sageer has noted, they are on the South Side of Chicago!

[crufootball]

I can see that. The one I found surprising is right now I'd have Moravian or Hendrix as the first candidate on the table for the South by the current criteria. Since neither are in the SRFP as of last week, it surprised me when I looked at current SOS and RRO numbers. Moravian gets Gettysburg and Muhlenberg to come, so that could change things, but Hendrix is pretty much clear sailing to the end of the season.

Lots of games to play, but little things like that are strange right now.

Barring a weird second loss somewhere, I think the loser of the UMHB-HSU game this weekend should and will be the first Pool C team available from the South (with the winner obviously getting the Pool B invitation).  Past that, it gets weird and difficult in the South for sure- thanks in large part to Chicago, who couldn't possibly be any less South.

With that in mind, any chance the winner doesn't host the loser in the first round of the tournament?

[jknezek]

I can see that. The one I found surprising is right now I'd have Moravian or Hendrix as the first candidate on the table for the South by the current criteria. Since neither are in the SRFP as of last week, it surprised me when I looked at current SOS and RRO numbers. Moravian gets Gettysburg and Muhlenberg to come, so that could change things, but Hendrix is pretty much clear sailing to the end of the season.

Lots of games to play, but little things like that are strange right now.

Barring a weird second loss somewhere, I think the loser of the UMHB-HSU game this weekend should and will be the first Pool C team available from the South (with the winner obviously getting the Pool B invitation).  Past that, it gets weird and difficult in the South for sure- thanks in large part to Chicago, who couldn't possibly be any less South.

With that in mind, any chance the winner doesn't host the loser in the first round of the tournament?

Hendrix is within 500 miles of UMHB. There is always a shot! Or the loser could simply lose again, or not be chosen.

[wally_wabash]

I can see that. The one I found surprising is right now I'd have Moravian or Hendrix as the first candidate on the table for the South by the current criteria. Since neither are in the SRFP as of last week, it surprised me when I looked at current SOS and RRO numbers. Moravian gets Gettysburg and Muhlenberg to come, so that could change things, but Hendrix is pretty much clear sailing to the end of the season.

Lots of games to play, but little things like that are strange right now.

Barring a weird second loss somewhere, I think the loser of the UMHB-HSU game this weekend should and will be the first Pool C team available from the South (with the winner obviously getting the Pool B invitation).  Past that, it gets weird and difficult in the South for sure- thanks in large part to Chicago, who couldn't possibly be any less South.

With that in mind, any chance the winner doesn't host the loser in the first round of the tournament?

I think Hendrix is the only other school even remotely in play that could spare y'all the rematch.  And I think Hendrix probably needs calamity to get in (we've knocked them out in the Eliminator).  A UMHB/HSU rematch is probably about a 96% probability of happening. 

[Andy Jamison - Walla Walla Wildcat]

Are we saying that UWP has been knocked out of Pool C contention with their 2nd loss - even though they lost to two teams ranked in the Top 7?  There are very, very few teams in D3 that would not have lost both of those games by a much greater average margin (22.5). 

I bet that there are zero teams outside the Top 8 that would do better against UWO and UWW - History sure wouldn't support it.  Maybe Wabash will be in the same bracket again as UWW and hopefully UWO and I can be proven wrong.  Unfortunately Thomas More and JHU most likely won't get a chance to see how they would do as they'll be in the East and lose to Wesley.

[smedindy]

Wally has them still having a chance, and there's precedence for an excellent 2-loss team to make the tourney from the West.

[ExTartanPlayer]

Are we saying that UWP has been knocked out of Pool C contention with their 2nd loss - even though they lost to two teams ranked in the Top 7?  There are very, very few teams in D3 that would not have lost both of those games by a much greater average margin (22.5). 

Aw, the poor kids lost to two teams in the top 7?  Man, life is hard!  If they hadn't given up 63 points in one of those games, I might listen.  Even emma17, diehard WIAC fan and ardent supporter of changing the Pool C process to include teams with solid performances against "established teams" just posted here saying that he would be hard-pressed to include UWP!

On one hand you repeatedly complain about AQ's being an everyone-gets-a-trophy problem, then you whine about the poor team who had to play a tough schedule getting left out - even though they lost one of those games by 35 points!  Yeah - it's a tough life.  Winning the national title is something you have to earn.  Like I've said, this stuff devalues the regular season games.  UWP had their chance to beat UWW and UWO.  They lost both.  Neither one was a last-minute fluke.  Deal with it.

*Editing to add: with that said, I'm about to add another comment that suggests I don't think UWP is eliminated yet.  This first post was just a reply to this silly ongoing notion that teams deserve second, third, fourth chances just because they played a hard schedule instead of teams that are going undefeated and 9-1 in "weaker" leagues.

[ExTartanPlayer]

On one of the boards, PAC maybe? I played around with a mock South Region Committee ranking given the info we have right now. Not accounting for anything that might happen going forward. I was surprised that I ended up with two 2 loss teams over a host of one loss teams, but when looking at how the RRO dominoes fell and SOS it seemed almost inevitable. Granted they were teams 9 and 10 and probably wouldn't see the board, but it was hard to ignore them based on the criteria.

Yeah, as the season's gone on, the thought process on two-loss teams has morphed slowly from a "We can't just eliminate two-loss teams yet, no matter how lousy we think they are" to "Give us a reason why you should be up here". Wally and ETP know a lot more about the big picture than me, so they've done almost all that lifting, but I can tell you they're following an internal logic and trying to think about criteria in these calls.

For me, it's been simple.  Any 9-1 team at least survives the first cut of "Do they have any chance at all to get discussed?" because there just aren't many teams that finish 9-1 in Pool C (what's the all-time record for 9-1 teams in the Pool C discussion since the field expanded to 32?  I think the most 9-1 teams I can ever remember being left out of the field is 2).  Even though there will be the occasional 9-1 team with an extremely flimsy resume who will never get discussed, it's hard to flag that for sure in the Eliminator, so we'd best leave all 1-loss possibilities on the table.

Then when we start looking at 8-2 teams, you realize, there are going to be a lot of 8-2 teams.  Too many for any old 8-2 team to make it to the table.  So there's gotta be a bonus point on an 8-2's resume.  A really big SOS, one or more RR wins, or 2+ good RR "results" working for you.

And that's where I think walla walla's last post is really stretching it with the "closeness" of those UWP losses.  It's possible that a team like 8-2 Concordia-Moorhead might get into the discussion if they're carrying an 8-point loss to St. John's and an overtime loss to St. Thomas.  As smedindy noted, there is precedent; St. Thomas got in last year at 8-2 with two competitive losses (although, as wally said in the past, that seemed like a bit of an odd pick).  But one of those UWP losses was an annihilation, and while UWO is undeniably awesome, the two weeks preceding their UWP game, they won by 3 points and 11 points.  UWP lost by a whole lot more than that.

The other thing that hurts UWP is that their big win, North Central, is going to have (at least) two other losses and will probably not be in the playoff field.  In an alternate universe where NCC beats Wesley and Wheaton and takes the CCIW at 9-1 with their only loss against UWP...that trump card of an RR win against a 9-1 league champion would help offset the two losses.  But with NCC 7-3 or 6-4 and maybe not regionally ranked, that win no longer works as a big shiny diamond in your favor.  It's just a good win.