Pool C -- 2015

[retagent]

My memory tells me that UWW traveled to UMHB a few years ago. It also tells me that it was a close, low scoring game. Something like 7 - 6.

[wabndy]

Only this year's results should matter, but... We just don't have the datapoints with 9-10 regular season games to just let the chips fall where we may and not rely on nond3like criteria like PF/PA. Why in years that that UWW goes undefeated in the regular season should the purple powers not be on opposite sides of the bracket? I don't think this criteria has ever been used to determine the last pool c team in. But the pool c selection criteria are the same criteria that the committee must use (along with GAAP) to make up the tournament bracket. This rule allows the committee members to employ their common sense and knowledge of the d3 football world to generate common sense brackets.

Assuming UWW does get in this year, I think it'd be fascinating to see these two meet before Salem.

[art76]

Assuming UWW does get in this year, I think it'd be fascinating to see these two meet before Salem.

All,

To get these two teams on the "same side of the bracket", what has to fall in place during the Pool C picks? Perhaps better said, who has to be the top four seeds? With UMHB losing yesterday, many folks' brackets just got a little more complicated, don't you think?

[USee]

In the CCIW race we got a little more clarity and a little more complexity with regards to Pool C. North Central's win over IWU (by 18 pts) brings into play the possibility of a 3 way tie in the race for the AQ. Here are the possible scenarios:

Wheaton plays @IWU this Saturday and if they win, they lock up the AQ with one week to play. This all but eliminates any reasonable possibility of a Pool C bid for the CCIW

If Wheaton were to lose it brings up a 3 way tie for the CCIW title (assuming they all win out). The tie breaker is point differential between the 3 teams. IWU has to win Saturday by 29 pts to win the AQ. If IWU beats Wheaton, NCC is in the driver's seat for the AQ. Wheaton cannot win the AQ if they lose to IWU because of the point differential NCC has over the other two. With a Wheaton loss IWU would be ahead of them on the Pool C totem pole.

To summarize, the simplest scenario is a Wheaton win Saturday which gives them the AQ and elminates Pool C for the CCIW.

A Wheaton loss gives NCC the AQ (barring an IWU win by 29 pts) and puts IWU and Wheaton in the Pool C equation with Wheaton's criteria considered weak and IWU's resume fairly strong.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Assuming UWW does get in this year, I think it'd be fascinating to see these two meet before Salem.

All,

To get these two teams on the "same side of the bracket", what has to fall in place during the Pool C picks? Perhaps better said, who has to be the top four seeds? With UMHB losing yesterday, many folks' brackets just got a little more complicated, don't you think?

I have the distance from UWW to Mount as 507 miles... so they definitely won't meet before the quarterfinals and probably not likely to meet before semifinals since there's plenty of closer teams to have in a bracket with each. Even then, I don't feel like they'd probably end up on the same side of the bracket. I think the top seeds right now would be Mount, Linfield, Wesley, St Thomas/Wheaton/Oshkosh which would probably be Wesley @ Mount and St Thomas/Wheaton/Oshkosh @ Linfield.

I could easily see them making a sub-bracket this year be La Verne @ Linfield and UMHB @ Hardin-Simmons. Because what's a D3 playoffs without a Texas rematch in the first round?

[wabndy]

FC,
I seem to remember that the committee does do an actual 1-4 seeding to determine how the brackets go and that they are not required to predict cost savings beyond the first round or two - certainly not the national semifinal round. I wouldn't want to start projecting the 1-4 seeding at least until we get our first round of regional rankings.

For those scoring at home, the NCAA's official mileage calculator (to see if you are within 500 miles and a bus ride away from any potential opponent) can be found here: https://web1.ncaa.org/TES/exec/miles

Note that google maps mileage doesn't count.

[MonroviaCat]

Do we get Regional Rankings this week?

[nccfac]

Do we get Regional Rankings this week?

Yes. On Wednesday.

[wally_wabash]

This is going to be really, really interesting this week.  I'm anxious to hear ATN tomorrow talk about what's going on in the at-large world and in particular with UMHB.  As I noted in the projection last week, Hardin-Simmons probably looked better according to the criteria than UMHB and could have been ranked ahead of the Crusaders, except that the Crusaders have the kind of track record that generally lets them slide a bit for weak(er) criteria.  But that all goes away once you lose a game.  And now UMHB is going to come to this dance with some really shaky criteria.  At this point, I think they would still be the top ranked at-large team in the South (after Hardin-Simmons peels off for the Pool B bid) and that may be good enough to get them in.  Wednesday's rankings will tell the tale. 

[smedindy]

UMHB's non-conference games are an example of what on paper could have been decent that turned south. OWU and LAX are underperforming and Millsaps is a mess. Their next two games may not help - Howard Payne is terrible and ETBU will probably finish 6-4.

[Mr. Ypsi]

UMHB's non-conference games are an example of what on paper could have been decent that turned south. OWU and LAX are underperforming and Millsaps is a mess. Their next two games may not help - Howard Payne is terrible and ETBU will probably finish 6-4.

All true, but despite the official criteria, it is just inconceivable to me that a 9-1 UMHB would not be in.

[Andy Jamison - Walla Walla Wildcat]

It would be a travesty/injustice if a 9-1 MHB team were to be excluded from the play-offs.

[crufootball]

UMHB's non-conference games are an example of what on paper could have been decent that turned south. OWU and LAX are underperforming and Millsaps is a mess. Their next two games may not help - Howard Payne is terrible and ETBU will probably finish 6-4.

Adding to that point, its not like UMHB is scheduling those teams out of convenience either. Ohio Wesleyan is over 1,000 miles away and while LAX and Milsaps were at home this year we traveled there last year and one was a plane trip and the other was a very long bus trip.

[AO]

UMHB's non-conference games are an example of what on paper could have been decent that turned south. OWU and LAX are underperforming and Millsaps is a mess. Their next two games may not help - Howard Payne is terrible and ETBU will probably finish 6-4.

Adding to that point, its not like UMHB is scheduling those teams out of convenience either. Ohio Wesleyan is over 1,000 miles away and while LAX and Milsaps were at home this year we traveled there last year and one was a plane trip and the other was a very long bus trip.

True, but wasn't Whitewater and Oshkosh looking for games since they both scheduled Finlandia?   I won't be insulted if MHB doesn't make it.  There are a lot of good teams out there with great wins.

[wabndy]

It would be a travesty/injustice if a 9-1 MHB team were to be excluded from the play-offs.

Right now UMHB's SOS is 0.476 and comes in at 158th on the national SOS rankings. That ranking will certainly go down next week as they pick up a game against 1-7 Howard Payne and won't be helped much when they play East Texas Baptist in week 11.  They will have a (1-1) record against RROs.


As a point of comparison, I've tried to reconstruct the 2014 Pool B/C resumes.  Since we didn't see the final regional rankings, RRO results are estimates.
Pool B
Wesley (5-0, 2-0 vs. RRO, 0.608 SOS (#2))
Texas Lutheran (7-1, 1-1 vs. RRO, SOS 0.510 (T #95))

Pool C

Centre (10-0, 0-0 vs. RRO, SOS 0.440 (T#212))
John Carroll (9-1, 1-1 vs. RRO,  SOS 0.511 (T #90))
Wabash (9-1, 1-1* vs. RRO,  SOS 0.520 (T #66))
Muhlenberg (9-1, 1-1 vs. RRO, SOS 0.500 (T #120))
Delaware Valley (9-1, 0-1 vs. RRO, SOS 0.519 (T #72))
St. Thomas (8-2, 0-2 vs. RRO, SOS 0.502 (T #114))

* not sure if Hampden-Sydney was ranked in the final east rankings, they were ranked 9th in their region going into the losing game against Randolph Macon but nevertheless won the crazy ODAC AQ on a 4 way tie.  If they weren't, Wabash had a 0-1 RRO record.

So going back to UMHB - I'd probably put a buck or two down on them getting in, but I wouldn't exactly today call it an injustice if they don't with such a horrendously low SOS.  No, the low SOS is not really their fault (A: its a long way to Texas, B: its a long way to travel for a likely shellacking).  I don't see a two loss team jumping over them, but with an 0-1 RRO and a low sos, they may be the last one loss team in.