Pool C -- 2015

[wally_wabash]

This week's eliminations:
Wheaton
Rose-Hulman
John Carroll
Linfield
UW-Oshkosh
St. Thomas
Washington & Lee
Thomas More
Case Western Reserve
Chicago
Berry
Huntingdon
Maryville
Johns Hopkins
Albright
Stevenson
Rowan

Again this week we knocked out a bunch of teams that didn't lose.  Many of those eliminated themselves from at-large consideration by qualifying automatically.  You know who they are.  Of the others:
- RHIT was already very fringe and lost. 
- Chicago and Rowan took a third loss
- Berry was probably AQ or out based on last week's RR's, but they lost sealing their at-large fate
- Maryville's loss will take them out of the RRs and out of at-large play
- Delaware Valley's loss dominoes its way through the MAC making the MAC a one bid league
- And then there's John Carroll who we knocked out...but not ONU?  From whatever angle I look at this, I think John Carroll has to beat Mount Union to qualify.  Any loss drops them to 8-2 and I can't find a suitable reason why their h2h loss to ONU wouldn't be honored at that point.  And if it's not, I can't find a criteria-based reason for JCU to be first in line from the North region, which I think has to happen.  I'm not sure the North will have more than one at-large team, and honestly right now I would bet on zero at-large teams from the North region. 

That leaves 19 teams in play for those 7 at-large bids.  The regional breakdown is:
North - 6
West - 6
South - 5
East - 2

[smedindy]

The at larges will run East and South - and maybe Wesley.

[wesleydad]

The at larges will run East and South - and maybe Wesley.

I think you mean west and south and Wesley.

[Tekken]

The Week 10 and final update to the B/C Eliminator table.  Here is a peek at the logic we are trying to apply as we go through this week to week:

1. Two-loss teams can make the tournament as Pool Cs
2. Three-loss teams never have
3. The last-time we had a conference get three teams in, the 3rd best team was the Pool A.

And with those three main points in mind:

- Three loss teams are automatically out.
- Two-loss teams are still in, unless those teams are already behind a pair of zero or one-loss teams in their own conference.  I think we're pretty close to adhering to this absolutely, but there may be a case here and there where we've knocked out a two-loss team that isn't going accumulate other useful criteria such as high SOS or wins vs. RROs. 

Thanks again to ExTartanPlayer and Bombers798891 for working through this with me.  Teams that we believe are out of at-large contention are in red, teams that I believe are still alive are in green, and Pool B eligible teams are marked with an asterisk(*), all as of Week 8 results.  And this week I've italicized teams that were newly eliminated.

CCIW	HCAC	MIAA	NACC	NCAC	OAC
Carthage	Earlham	Hope	Cocnordia(Wis)	Allegheny	Muskingum
Augustana	Hanover	Alma	Aurora	Hiram	Marietta
North Park	Bluffton	Kalamazoo	Wis Lutheran	Wooster	Heidelberg
Millikin	Anderson	Adrian	Benedictine	Oberlin	Wilmington
North Central	Defiance	Trine	Lakeland	OWU	B-W
Elmhurst	MSJ	Olivet	CUC	Kenyon	Otterbein
Wheaton	Manchester	Albion	Rockford	Witt	Capital
IWU	Franklin			Denison	ONU
	RHIT			Wabash	Mount Union
				DePauw	John Carroll

IIAC	IND	MIAC	MWC	NWC	SCIAC	UMAC	WIAC
BVC	Finlandia*	St. Olaf	Lawrence	L&C	Redlands	IWC	Eau Claire
Dubuque	Maranatha*	Carleton	Macalester	Willamette	Chapman	Martin Luther	River Falls
Loras		Hamline	Carroll	PLU	Whittier	Greenville	La Crosse
Coe		Augsburg	Ripon	UPS	P-PC	Crown	Stout
Simpson		C-MC	Beloit	Pacific	CMS	MacMurray	SP
Luther		St. John's	Grinnell	George Fox	Laverne	Eureka	Oshkosh
Central		Bethel	Lake Forest	Whitworth	Occidental	Minn-Morris	Platteville
Wartburg		St. Thomas	IC	Linfield	Cal Lutheran	SSC	Whitewater
		Gustavus Adolphus	Cornell			Westminster
			Knox			Northwestern
			Monmouth
			St. Norbert

ASC	CC	ODAC	PAC	SAA	SCAC	USAC
LC*	McDaniel	Randolph-Macon	Grove City	Sewanee	Southwestern*	Averett
Bellhaven**	Juniata	Catholic	Thiel	Millsaps	Austin*	Ferrum
HPU*	Dickinson	E&H	Waynesburg	Hendrix	TLU*	NCWC
SRSU*	Ursinus	Bridgewater	CMU	Rhodes	Trinity*	LaGrange
McMurry***	Susquehenna	H-SC	Bethany	WashU		Greensboro
ETBU*	Muhlenberg	W&L	St. Vincent	B-SC		Huntingdon
UMHB*	Moravian	Shenandoah	Westminster	Centre		Methodist
H-SU*	Gettysburg	Guilford	Geneva	Berry		Maryville
	F&M		CWRU	Chicago
	Johns Hopkins		Thomas More
			W&J

ECFC	Empire 8	IND	LL	MAC	MASCAC	NEFC	NJAC
Mount Ida	Buffalo St.	Alfred St.**	Union	Misericordia	Worcester State	Curry	So Virginia
Anna Maria	Hartwick		St. Lawrence	Wilkes	Plymouth State	Nichols	TCNJ
Norwich	SJF		RPI	Leb Valley	Westfield State	Maine Maritime	Montclair St.
Gallaudet	Utica		USMMA	Lycoming	Bridgewater St.	Salve Regina	Salisbury
Husson	Morrisville St.		Springfield	King's	Western Conn.	MIT	WPU
Castleton	Brockport St.		WPI	FDU-F	Mass-Dartmouth	Endicott	CNU
Becker	Alfred		Hobart	Widener	Mass-Maritime	Coast Guard	Frostburg St.
SUNY-MC	Ithaca		Rochester	Del Valley	Framingham St.	Western NE	Rowan
	Cortland St.			Albright	Fitchburg State		Kean
				Stevenson			Wesley

** Provisional, ineligible for postseason
*** Reclassifying, ineligible for postseason

Whys etbu out already? If they beat umhb next week dont both have two losses with etbu having h2h, common opponent in hsu and rro advantages?

[pg04]

The Week 10 and final update to the B/C Eliminator table.  Here is a peek at the logic we are trying to apply as we go through this week to week:

1. Two-loss teams can make the tournament as Pool Cs
2. Three-loss teams never have
3. The last-time we had a conference get three teams in, the 3rd best team was the Pool A.

And with those three main points in mind:

- Three loss teams are automatically out.
- Two-loss teams are still in, unless those teams are already behind a pair of zero or one-loss teams in their own conference.  I think we're pretty close to adhering to this absolutely, but there may be a case here and there where we've knocked out a two-loss team that isn't going accumulate other useful criteria such as high SOS or wins vs. RROs. 

Whys etbu out already? If they beat umhb next week dont both have two losses with etbu having h2h, common opponent in hsu and rro advantages?

Because of their criteria in Bold, I would assume. WW can correct me if I'm wrong, which I am a lot.

[Tekken]

The Week 10 and final update to the B/C Eliminator table.  Here is a peek at the logic we are trying to apply as we go through this week to week:

1. Two-loss teams can make the tournament as Pool Cs
2. Three-loss teams never have
3. The last-time we had a conference get three teams in, the 3rd best team was the Pool A.

And with those three main points in mind:

- Three loss teams are automatically out.
- Two-loss teams are still in, unless those teams are already behind a pair of zero or one-loss teams in their own conference.  I think we're pretty close to adhering to this absolutely, but there may be a case here and there where we've knocked out a two-loss team that isn't going accumulate other useful criteria such as high SOS or wins vs. RROs. 

Whys etbu out already? If they beat umhb next week dont both have two losses with etbu having h2h, common opponent in hsu and rro advantages?

Because of their criteria in Bold, I would assume. WW can correct me if I'm wrong, which I am a lot.

I read that but assumed he meant in cases where this couldnt be changed in last week. With the h2h that could change for next week. Dawning on me now that maybe he recalculates each week? I was reading under assumption of espn eliminator. Once a team is in red theyre gone for the long haul

[pg04]

The Week 10 and final update to the B/C Eliminator table.  Here is a peek at the logic we are trying to apply as we go through this week to week:

1. Two-loss teams can make the tournament as Pool Cs
2. Three-loss teams never have
3. The last-time we had a conference get three teams in, the 3rd best team was the Pool A.

And with those three main points in mind:

- Three loss teams are automatically out.
- Two-loss teams are still in, unless those teams are already behind a pair of zero or one-loss teams in their own conference.  I think we're pretty close to adhering to this absolutely, but there may be a case here and there where we've knocked out a two-loss team that isn't going accumulate other useful criteria such as high SOS or wins vs. RROs. 

Whys etbu out already? If they beat umhb next week dont both have two losses with etbu having h2h, common opponent in hsu and rro advantages?

Because of their criteria in Bold, I would assume. WW can correct me if I'm wrong, which I am a lot.

I read that but assumed he meant in cases where this couldnt be changed in last week. With the h2h that could change for next week. Dawning on me now that maybe he recalculates each week? I was reading under assumption of espn eliminator. Once a team is in red theyre gone for the long haul

Yeah I am not sure about that. I know ETBU may be the only team this is a problem for, but I would think there is still a chance for them . 

[Tekken]

Eh. When i read it again i think it's an oversight. Red is belief they are out of at large contention? (Will be true when umhb beats them, but hasn't happened yet.)

[wally_wabash]

Whys etbu out already? If they beat umhb next week dont both have two losses with etbu having h2h, common opponent in hsu and rro advantages?

ETBU has presented a really interesting case.  Losing to McMurry is really bad.  I mean, really, really bad.  But what do you do with ETBU if they wind up sweeping the Hardins and winning the ASC?  Honestly, I'd be inclined to put them in the playoffs.  I've been looking at that Pool B slot as a de facto AQ for the ASC champion with consideration to TLU who played a good number of ASC teams this year.  But I'm not the committee and I really wonder if ETBU, even if they do go and beat UMHB on Saturday, will go from unranked to the front of the line so long as Hardin-Simmons wins their finale this weekend. 

I'm straying from the question here- basically we knocked ETBU out early on in this process because of that really bad loss to McMurry and a second loss to TLU looked like more than they could overcome to make the field as an at-large team.  I think that's still the case today, but they've definitely made that a much more interesting conversation than I thought it would be. 

And you're keen to mention the ESPN eliminator...that was definitely an inspiration for this.  We've tried to hold off on eliminating teams until we're really sure they're out.  We pulled ONU back from the red, but that's the only one where I think we knocked someone out too soon. 

[Tekken]

Well you can just leave em red and hope umhb takes care of business; that's what rick reilly would do. Otherwise i think they're square green.  Umhb would have a horrible resume at that point.  If you take the name off the jersey there's no way they're second in line in tx in front of etbu. (Yes i realize there's a Texas sized if in etbu bathing umhb). Just passing devils advocate of the process.

[ExTartanPlayer]

Whys etbu out already? If they beat umhb next week dont both have two losses with etbu having h2h, common opponent in hsu and rro advantages?

ETBU has presented a really interesting case.  Losing to McMurry is really bad.  I mean, really, really bad.  But what do you do with ETBU if they wind up sweeping the Hardins and winning the ASC?  Honestly, I'd be inclined to put them in the playoffs.  I've been looking at that Pool B slot as a de facto AQ for the ASC champion with consideration to TLU who played a good number of ASC teams this year.  But I'm not the committee and I really wonder if ETBU, even if they do go and beat UMHB on Saturday, will go from unranked to the front of the line so long as Hardin-Simmons wins their finale this weekend. 

I'm straying from the question here- basically we knocked ETBU out early on in this process because of that really bad loss to McMurry and a second loss to TLU looked like more than they could overcome to make the field as an at-large team.  I think that's still the case today, but they've definitely made that a much more interesting conversation than I thought it would be. 

And you're keen to mention the ESPN eliminator...that was definitely an inspiration for this.  We've tried to hold off on eliminating teams until we're really sure they're out.  We pulled ONU back from the red, but that's the only one where I think we knocked someone out too soon.

The RR's will be the key.  If HSU and UMHB both remain ranked in the top half of the South RR's this week and ETBU appears in the bottom portion of the poll, then presumably ETBU has a chance.  The South RAC obviously does not think much of the SAA or the PAC beyond Thomas More, so it's probably not a stretch to imagine three ASC teams getting into the RR's and staying there.  If ETBU beats UMHB and UMHB stays in the RRs, then you'll have an 8-2 ETBU with two RR wins and they'll probably have a decent chance.

[wally_wabash]

Well you can just leave em red and hope umhb takes care of business; that's what rick reilly would do. Otherwise i think they're square green.  Umhb would have a horrible resume at that point.  If you take the name off the jersey there's no way they're second in line in tx in front of etbu. (Yes i realize there's a Texas sized if in etbu bathing umhb). Just passing devils advocate of the process.

Man, tough room. 

It's a double edged sword for ETBU this week.  They have to beat UMHB to have any chance at all- but a hefty portion of that chance lies with UMHB being thought of as a really good team...which, if they lose this weekend, is very much in doubt (from a rankings and selection standpoint...I'm NOT saying UMHB is bad, Cru fans).  ETBU still has a loss to TLU that we have to deal with and the McMurry thing which you can only put so much deodorant on.  I think ETBU is out no matter what happens, hence the red.  They've made it interesting here, but I think they're out. 

[bluestreak66]

I don't know if I buy this week being a win or go home situation for John Carroll. I think they can lose a close game to Mount Union and still sit high enough in the regional rankings to possibly sneak in. The head to head with ONU is damaging, but there could be a three way tie for second place in the OAC, and at that point, there is no reason why the head to head with ONU should do more damage to JCU than the head to head with BW should do to ONU. More than likely, John Carroll will be the highest non-presumptive AQ team in the north. And short of getting blown out by Mount, I don't see them dropping far enough to drop out of the rankings completely.
It probably wouldn't be totally fair if JCU got in over ONU, but I would argue that since ONU isn't even ranked at the moment, it is far more likely for JCU to get a bid over ONU. Obviously, we all know sports isn't always fair, and this could be one of those cases, but I think eliminating JCU from pool C contention at this point is a little bit hasty.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

I don't know if I buy this week being a win or go home situation for John Carroll. I think they can lose a close game to Mount Union and still sit high enough in the regional rankings to possibly sneak in. The head to head with ONU is damaging, but there could be a three way tie for second place in the OAC, and at that point, there is no reason why the head to head with ONU should do more damage to JCU than the head to head with BW should do to ONU. More than likely, John Carroll will be the highest non-presumptive AQ team in the north. And short of getting blown out by Mount, I don't see them dropping far enough to drop out of the rankings completely.
It probably wouldn't be totally fair if JCU got in over ONU, but I would argue that since ONU isn't even ranked at the moment, it is far more likely for JCU to get a bid over ONU. Obviously, we all know sports isn't always fair, and this could be one of those cases, but I think eliminating JCU from pool C contention at this point is a little bit hasty.

I think Olivet would likely be ahead of them (they probably should have been ahead in the first rankings). And there's the possibility that if DePauw wins this weekend then Wabash gets thrown in the mix.

[bluestreak66]

That is true. Obviously, if DePauw and JCU both win, this essentially becomes the least intense pool C ever, with Whitewater, St. Johns, MHB, Wesley, Mount, and Wabash easily taking five of the spots
And I'm obviously not saying JCU is a lock, because they aren't by far. I just think they have enough of a chance to still be a non-eliminated team