Pool C -- 2015

[wally_wabash]

I believe it would take 2008 levels of Week 11 calamity for this multiple loss John Carroll team to make the field.  Unlike the last couple of years, John Carroll does not have a 9-1 St. Norbert boosting their SOS or a RRO win against somebody like Heidelberg.  There is no meat on JCU's profile and this is the wrong year to stroll into the Pool C saloon with an empty wheel. 

John Carroll could lose a close game to Mount Union and climb in the top 25.  They can not lose a close game to Mount Union and climb in the regional rankings.  Different rules govern those two things. 

[Toby Taff]

Whys etbu out already? If they beat umhb next week dont both have two losses with etbu having h2h, common opponent in hsu and rro advantages?

ETBU has presented a really interesting case.  Losing to McMurry is really bad.  I mean, really, really bad.  But what do you do with ETBU if they wind up sweeping the Hardins and winning the ASC?  Honestly, I'd be inclined to put them in the playoffs.  I've been looking at that Pool B slot as a de facto AQ for the ASC champion with consideration to TLU who played a good number of ASC teams this year.  But I'm not the committee and I really wonder if ETBU, even if they do go and beat UMHB on Saturday, will go from unranked to the front of the line so long as Hardin-Simmons wins their finale this weekend. 

I'm straying from the question here- basically we knocked ETBU out early on in this process because of that really bad loss to McMurry and a second loss to TLU looked like more than they could overcome to make the field as an at-large team.  I think that's still the case today, but they've definitely made that a much more interesting conversation than I thought it would be. 

And you're keen to mention the ESPN eliminator...that was definitely an inspiration for this.  We've tried to hold off on eliminating teams until we're really sure they're out.  We pulled ONU back from the red, but that's the only one where I think we knocked someone out too soon.

The RR's will be the key.  If HSU and UMHB both remain ranked in the top half of the South RR's this week and ETBU appears in the bottom portion of the poll, then presumably ETBU has a chance.  The South RAC obviously does not think much of the SAA or the PAC beyond Thomas More, so it's probably not a stretch to imagine three ASC teams getting into the RR's and staying there. If ETBU beats UMHB and UMHB stays in the RRs, then you'll have an 8-2 ETBU with two RR wins and they'll probably have a decent chance.

not to be too not picky but McM is a non D3 game. IF ETBU wins they'll be 8-1 against d3 schools with the h2h against 9-1 hsu (assuming a win out).. the mcm loss is a big turd on the record, but I thought we should keep it clear

[Pat Coleman]

I think by the time you're talking about ETBU, the secondary criteria will be in play. McMurry isn't a full D-III member but they are a transitioning one and they've played a good number of D-III teams.

[wally_wabash]

Whys etbu out already? If they beat umhb next week dont both have two losses with etbu having h2h, common opponent in hsu and rro advantages?

ETBU has presented a really interesting case.  Losing to McMurry is really bad.  I mean, really, really bad.  But what do you do with ETBU if they wind up sweeping the Hardins and winning the ASC?  Honestly, I'd be inclined to put them in the playoffs.  I've been looking at that Pool B slot as a de facto AQ for the ASC champion with consideration to TLU who played a good number of ASC teams this year.  But I'm not the committee and I really wonder if ETBU, even if they do go and beat UMHB on Saturday, will go from unranked to the front of the line so long as Hardin-Simmons wins their finale this weekend. 

I'm straying from the question here- basically we knocked ETBU out early on in this process because of that really bad loss to McMurry and a second loss to TLU looked like more than they could overcome to make the field as an at-large team.  I think that's still the case today, but they've definitely made that a much more interesting conversation than I thought it would be. 

And you're keen to mention the ESPN eliminator...that was definitely an inspiration for this.  We've tried to hold off on eliminating teams until we're really sure they're out.  We pulled ONU back from the red, but that's the only one where I think we knocked someone out too soon.

The RR's will be the key.  If HSU and UMHB both remain ranked in the top half of the South RR's this week and ETBU appears in the bottom portion of the poll, then presumably ETBU has a chance.  The South RAC obviously does not think much of the SAA or the PAC beyond Thomas More, so it's probably not a stretch to imagine three ASC teams getting into the RR's and staying there. If ETBU beats UMHB and UMHB stays in the RRs, then you'll have an 8-2 ETBU with two RR wins and they'll probably have a decent chance.

not to be too not picky but McM is a non D3 game. IF ETBU wins they'll be 8-1 against d3 schools with the h2h against 9-1 hsu (assuming a win out).. the mcm loss is a big turd on the record, but I thought we should keep it clear

Understood, but pretending that McMurry 49, ETBU 22 didn't happen would be irresponsible. 

We'll know where ETBU stands tomorrow.  If they are not in front of Hardin-Simmons in tomorrow's rankings, I don't know what they can do to get ahead of them in the final rankings and get that Pool B spot. 

[ExTartanPlayer]

We'll know where ETBU stands tomorrow.  If they are not in front of Hardin-Simmons in tomorrow's rankings, I don't know what they can do to get ahead of them in the final rankings and get that Pool B spot.

Moving further down into Pool C, then, it's not just about where they are vs. HSU but also compared to other non-AQ teams like Moravian, Guilford, Texas Lutheran, Maryville, etc.  If ETBU beats UMHB and remains behind HSU but ahead of all other Pool B/C teams, and UMHB is also still in the rankings but below ETBU, then presumably HSU takes the Pool B and ETBU would be the first Pool C up from the South.  With two RR wins, I expect that they would get their name called at some point.  But if they're behind any of Moravian, Guilford, Texas Lutheran, etc...that goes out the window because they'll be sitting on the board for at least a little while until any of those teams get selected.  And it seems like a pretty big stretch that ETBU will go from unranked to ahead of all of those teams, while also keeping HSU and UMHB high enough in the rankings for them to work as the sort of quality wins needed to make onself a viable 2-loss Pool C candidate.

This is all moot if UMHB beats ETBU, of course, and we should probably quit wasting airtime until we know that result.

[wally_wabash]

We'll know where ETBU stands tomorrow.  If they are not in front of Hardin-Simmons in tomorrow's rankings, I don't know what they can do to get ahead of them in the final rankings and get that Pool B spot.

Moving further down into Pool C, then, it's not just about where they are vs. HSU but also compared to other non-AQ teams like Moravian, Guilford, Texas Lutheran, Maryville, etc.  If ETBU beats UMHB and remains behind HSU but ahead of all other Pool B/C teams, and UMHB is also still in the rankings but below ETBU, then presumably HSU takes the Pool B and ETBU would be the first Pool C up from the South.  With two RR wins, I expect that they would get their name called at some point.  But if they're behind any of Moravian, Guilford, Texas Lutheran, etc...that goes out the window because they'll be sitting on the board for at least a little while until any of those teams get selected.  And it seems like a pretty big stretch that ETBU will go from unranked to ahead of all of those teams, while also keeping HSU and UMHB high enough in the rankings for them to work as the sort of quality wins needed to make onself a viable 2-loss Pool C candidate.

This is all moot if UMHB beats ETBU, of course, and we should probably quit wasting airtime until we know that result.

TLU is kind of the hair in the soup here for ETBU, aren't they?  Maybe ETBU's common opponent results with HSU and UMHB can offset both that McMurry result and a h2h loss to TLU, and maybe it can't.  And maybe the South committee looks at that mess and punts (kind of like what they did with Berry/CWRU/Chicago last week) and puts them all behind Moravian and Guilford. 

In short, I think there's an interesting conversation around whether or not ETBU, if they win the ASC outright, have earned that pool B bid (I would be inclined to treat it like a de facto AQ for the ASC, particularly with TLU having lost twice to ASC teams).  I don't think ETBU can get in through Pool C with that McMurry result. 

[USee]

So we have some wacky conference tie breakers out there.  Point spread differential, previous playoff history, points allowed, and now the national committee gets to potentially be the de facto subjective tie breaker.  Pretty fascinating stuff.

[Toby Taff]

I think by the time you're talking about ETBU, the secondary criteria will be in play. McMurry isn't a full D-III member but they are a transitioning one and they've played a good number of D-III teams.

agreed, but my thinking here goes more towards wondering if that would be enough for the pool b. wins against HSU & UMHB and on!y one D3 loss to a team that lost to both hsdu and umhb. I dont think there's any hope for a pool c with the McM turd on their plate, but could they get the poolb and blow pool c up for Texas altogether?

[wally_wabash]

I think by the time you're talking about ETBU, the secondary criteria will be in play. McMurry isn't a full D-III member but they are a transitioning one and they've played a good number of D-III teams.

agreed, but my thinking here goes more towards wondering if that would be enough for the pool b. wins against HSU & UMHB and on!y one D3 loss to a team that lost to both hsdu and umhb. I dont think there's any hope for a pool c with the McM turd on their plate, but could they get the poolb and blow pool c up for Texas altogether?

That, ultimately, will be decided by the South RAC and how they choose to order HSU, ETBU, and UMHB. 

[RLW]

What does RAC stand for and who are they?

[wally_wabash]

What does RAC stand for and who are they?

RAC = Region Advisory Committee and they are the people that create the regional rankings which are the key to everything. 

Just for edification and because so much of this week's spotlight is on this group, here is the South RAC:
Darla Kirby, co-chair (UMHB)
Jack Leipheimer, co-chair (Thiel)
Dennis Dunn (Louisiana College)
Steve Ulrich (Centennial Conference)
Dave Dunn (Catholic)
Danny Padron (TLU)
Kurt Reiser (Thiel)
Tommy Laurendine (Sewanee)
Dave Harper (Ferrum)

[USee]

And two people from every RAC serve on the national committee that does the selections for Pool B/C. Usually the chair and co-chair. 

[Pat Coleman]

And the co-chairs don't vote on the regional call.

[Tekken]

I guess my point was simply that if there is still this much discussion about ETBU possibly being in, should we consider them definitively out?

Sorry to cause everyone such mental gymnastics!

[RLW]

Thanks Pat,Usee, and a special Thanks Wally for all you do.