Pool C -- 2015

[D3MAFAN]

How I look at things, looking at all the criteria, Mount Union, St. Thomas, Linfield, and Johns Hopkins are the #1 Seeds.

SOS Rankings for the 11 undefeated teams in NCAA play

39 Johns Hopkins  .557
67 Oshkosh  .529
107 Washington and Lee  .507
108 Linfield  .506
133 Wheaton  .497
139 Thomas More .494
154 St. Thomas  .486
163 St. Norbert  .481
168 Wabash  .474
190 Mount Union  .458
227 Western New England  .386

SOS is not only criteria, I threw in prior years playoff results and records against non-d3, we all know (we just know), that SOS can be both helpful and misleading at times, especially when all conferences aren't equal when it comes to scheduling, some have only 1 OOC game, while others have 3. Some teams play 8 conference games and that's it, while others play either 9 or 10.

[art76]

How I look at things, looking at all the criteria, Mount Union, St. Thomas, Linfield, and Johns Hopkins are the #1 Seeds.

SOS Rankings for the 11 undefeated teams in NCAA play

39 Johns Hopkins  .557
67 Oshkosh  .529
107 Washington and Lee  .507
108 Linfield  .506
133 Wheaton  .497
139 Thomas More .494
154 St. Thomas  .486
163 St. Norbert  .481
168 Wabash  .474
190 Mount Union  .458
227 Western New England  .386

SOS is not only criteria, I threw in prior years playoff results and records against non-d3, we all know (we just know), that SOS can be both helpful and misleading at times, especially when all conferences aren't equal when it comes to scheduling, some have only 1 OOC game, while others have 3. Some teams play 8 conference games and that's it, while others play either 9 or 10.

Just adding some background - no offense intended.

I think it'll be interesting who the committee puts in as the top 8 teams in the bracket - how will they be paired across from one another.

I see Mount Union and Wesley or Wabash opposite one another.
I see Wheaton and St. John's or Whitewater across from one another.
I see St. Thomas and Oshkosh across from one another.
I see Linfield and Johns Hopkins across from one another.

There are a lot of options in the upper mid-west, that's for sure.

[USee]

I don't know the specific math but there is a chance Wheaton gets above .500 SOS this weekend. They play 5-4 Carthage and their other opponents could have an affect on where they end up. Either way it will be small.

I am surprised IWU goes from #5 to unranked after losing to #2 while Wesley stays #1 despite losing to an unranked team.

[D3MAFAN]

I don't know the specific math but there is a chance Wheaton gets above .500 SOS this weekend. They play 5-4 Carthage and their other opponents could have an affect on where they end up. Either way it will be small.

I am surprised IWU goes from #5 to unranked after losing to #2 while Wesley stays #1 despite losing to an unranked team.

I think the final rankings, although undisclosed will likely drop NCC back out. I think Wesley drops to #2 if everything else falls into place based upon our current expectations. However, with the way this season has been shaping up, I wouldn't be surprised to see a few more heartbreaks and upsets this last weekend.

[USee]

I don't know the specific math but there is a chance Wheaton gets above .500 SOS this weekend. They play 5-4 Carthage and their other opponents could have an affect on where they end up. Either way it will be small.

I am surprised IWU goes from #5 to unranked after losing to #2 while Wesley stays #1 despite losing to an unranked team.

I think the final rankings, although undisclosed will likely drop NCC back out. I think Wesley drops to #2 if everything else falls into place based upon our current expectations. However, with the way this season has been shaping up, I wouldn't be surprised to see a few more heartbreaks and upsets this last weekend.

That is not very likely. What scenario has NCC moving down? They aren't losing this Saturday and 2 or 3 teams above them are probably going to lose. That means 3 teams below NCC have to move ahead of them with them winning? No chance.

[USee]

The Linfield under St Thomas ranking bothers me. It shows that groups of people can all look at the same data and criteria and come up with different answers. There is obviously some unwritten subjectivity going on there. Linfield has a stronger SOS and if you come to the conclusion they are equal on the criteria, they win with last years playoff performance as a tie breaker. Makes no sense to me.

[thewaterboy]

The Linfield under St Thomas ranking bothers me. It shows that groups of people can all look at the same data and criteria and come up with different answers. There is obviously some unwritten subjectivity going on there. Linfield has a stronger SOS and if you come to the conclusion they are equal on the criteria, they win with last years playoff performance as a tie breaker. Makes no sense to me.

Must be that behind the back extra point pass from last week! Linfield has nothing on film that like that 

[USee]

My very strong suspicion on IWU is they are tied like an anchor to NCC. They are quite likely #11 and when JCU and Depauw lose on Saturday they will re-appear in the final rankings below NCC.

[jknezek]

I'm mildly confused on how the South RAC put Guilford ahead of Moravian. No common opponents, same winning percentage, Moravian has a higher SOS, and has lost to a higher ranked Regional team. Both are 0-1 RRO. The only thing you can point to is that Guilford lost by 3 to W&L on the road, while Moravian lost by 22 at home to JHU.

Pleased for Guilford, but not sure how the criteria has them in front right now.

[Ralph Turner]

I'm mildly confused on how the South RAC put Guilford ahead of Moravian. No common opponents, same winning percentage, Moravian has a higher SOS, and has lost to a higher ranked Regional team. Both are 0-1 RRO. The only thing you can point to is that Guilford lost by 3 to W&L on the road, while Moravian lost by 22 at home to JHU.

Pleased for Guilford, but not sure how the criteria has them in front right now.

The "L" goes into the loss column but 3 points of home field advantage is good enough for me as a "result".

[ExTartanPlayer]

I'm mildly confused on how the South RAC put Guilford ahead of Moravian. No common opponents, same winning percentage, Moravian has a higher SOS, and has lost to a higher ranked Regional team. Both are 0-1 RRO. The only thing you can point to is that Guilford lost by 3 to W&L on the road, while Moravian lost by 22 at home to JHU.

Pleased for Guilford, but not sure how the criteria has them in front right now.

Moravian was totally noncompetitive with JHU (the 22-point margin is deceiving; the game was 35-0 at halftime and 42-0 in the third quarter), while Guilford was competitive with W & L.  I understand that JHU is ranked higher than W & L, but we're already working with imperfect information here so I'm fine with the committee looking at those results and decided that Moravian's SOS advantage could be outweighed by the fact that they trailed 42-0 in the third quarter of their loss, while Guilford went down to the wire. 

[wally_wabash]

I'm mildly confused on how the South RAC put Guilford ahead of Moravian. No common opponents, same winning percentage, Moravian has a higher SOS, and has lost to a higher ranked Regional team. Both are 0-1 RRO. The only thing you can point to is that Guilford lost by 3 to W&L on the road, while Moravian lost by 22 at home to JHU.

Pleased for Guilford, but not sure how the criteria has them in front right now.

Moravian was totally noncompetitive with JHU (the 22-point margin is deceiving; the game was 35-0 at halftime and 42-0 in the third quarter), while Guilford was competitive with W & L.  I understand that JHU is ranked higher than W & L, but we're already working with imperfect information here so I'm fine with the committee looking at those results and decided that Moravian's SOS advantage could be outweighed by the fact that they trailed 42-0 in the third quarter of their loss, while Guilford went down to the wire.

I think the weird part is that all of those things were true last week so the position switch is tough to understand.  But without seeing those votes it's hard to know how or why rankings positions move.  It may be that the way HSU's loss and Maryville's loss affected the balloting positions of Guilford and Moravian ended up with Guilford just creeping by. 

[Schwami]

Can someone explain Olivet? How can they be behind John Carroll and even worse DePauw? All are 8-1... Olivet with the superior SoS and their loss is to #5 while JCU's is #7 and DePauw's is unranked... so why is JCU #6 DePauw #8 and Olivet #9?

Also the Finlandia games for Oshkosh and Whitewater seem to still not be counting.

Yes, what is different this week to flip Olivet (.502 SOS) and DePauw (.406 SOS), and also Albion (1-0 RRO, .576 SOS) and Franklin (0-0 RRO, .512 SOS)?  Last week Franklin was 1-1 against RRO, which would seem to be better than this week's 0-0.

Also seems weird that ONU jumped both DePauw and Olivet for no apparent reason.

[jknezek]

I'm mildly confused on how the South RAC put Guilford ahead of Moravian. No common opponents, same winning percentage, Moravian has a higher SOS, and has lost to a higher ranked Regional team. Both are 0-1 RRO. The only thing you can point to is that Guilford lost by 3 to W&L on the road, while Moravian lost by 22 at home to JHU.

Pleased for Guilford, but not sure how the criteria has them in front right now.

Moravian was totally noncompetitive with JHU (the 22-point margin is deceiving; the game was 35-0 at halftime and 42-0 in the third quarter), while Guilford was competitive with W & L.  I understand that JHU is ranked higher than W & L, but we're already working with imperfect information here so I'm fine with the committee looking at those results and decided that Moravian's SOS advantage could be outweighed by the fact that they trailed 42-0 in the third quarter of their loss, while Guilford went down to the wire.

I think the weird part is that all of those things were true last week so the position switch is tough to understand. But without seeing those votes it's hard to know how or why rankings positions move.  It may be that the way HSU's loss and Maryville's loss affected the balloting positions of Guilford and Moravian ended up with Guilford just creeping by.

That's the issue I was trying to get at.

[Ralph Turner]

I'm mildly confused on how the South RAC put Guilford ahead of Moravian. No common opponents, same winning percentage, Moravian has a higher SOS, and has lost to a higher ranked Regional team. Both are 0-1 RRO. The only thing you can point to is that Guilford lost by 3 to W&L on the road, while Moravian lost by 22 at home to JHU.

Pleased for Guilford, but not sure how the criteria has them in front right now.

Moravian was totally noncompetitive with JHU (the 22-point margin is deceiving; the game was 35-0 at halftime and 42-0 in the third quarter), while Guilford was competitive with W & L.  I understand that JHU is ranked higher than W & L, but we're already working with imperfect information here so I'm fine with the committee looking at those results and decided that Moravian's SOS advantage could be outweighed by the fact that they trailed 42-0 in the third quarter of their loss, while Guilford went down to the wire.

I think the weird part is that all of those things were true last week so the position switch is tough to understand. But without seeing those votes it's hard to know how or why rankings positions move.  It may be that the way HSU's loss and Maryville's loss affected the balloting positions of Guilford and Moravian ended up with Guilford just creeping by.

That's the issue I was trying to get at.

After further deliberation (and reading the wisdom on the D3 message boards, wink), they reconsidered and rectified the situation.