Pool C -- 2015

[desertcat1]

Save your energy unless you have a boatload of free time and cannot sleep some night.

As we (CruFootball, Gray Fox and I) were going thru the games for the ASC pick'em contest, we found these national games of interest.  Almost everyone eliminates one of the teams.

Whitworth at Linfield         
Rowan at Wesley                             
UW Oshkosh at UW Platteville         
North Central at Wheaton                       
W&J at Case Western Reserve             
Bethel at St. Thomas                         
Del Val and Albright         
Frank Marshall  and Moravian.

ralph.   both of these ("west coast specials"}  are undefeated  6-0, 5-0, so after the game  won't the one loss team  still be in the running  for a pool c and the winner gets the aq if they win out?   what did i miss? 

[ExTartanPlayer]

I think you guys are misunderstanding Ralph's list a little bit. 

It was a list of national games of interest where he said almost every one eliminates one of the teams.  Not that every loser  is eliminated.

You guys have been correct that the Whitworth/Linfield loser is not "eliminated" nor would Wheaton be "eliminated" with a loss to North Central. 

Maybe he should have called it a list of "games that involve teams who might ultimately end up in the Pool C picture" - would that be better?

[desertcat1]

I think you guys are misunderstanding Ralph's list a little bit. 

It was a list of national games of interest where he said almost every one eliminates one of the teams.  Not that every loser  is eliminated.

You guys have been correct that the Whitworth/Linfield loser is not "eliminated" nor would Wheaton be "eliminated" with a loss to North Central. 

Maybe he should have called it a list of "games that involve teams who might ultimately end up in the Pool C picture" - would that be better?

Missed the almost from law school ? got a keep that "west coast special"  alive.   when you live on an island . 1st round match up.

[Ralph Turner]

I think you guys are misunderstanding Ralph's list a little bit. 

It was a list of national games of interest where he said almost every one eliminates one of the teams.  Not that every loser  is eliminated.

You guys have been correct that the Whitworth/Linfield loser is not "eliminated" nor would Wheaton be "eliminated" with a loss to North Central. 

Maybe he should have called it a list of "games that involve teams who might ultimately end up in the Pool C picture" - would that be better?

Missed the almost from law school ? got a keep that "west coast special"  alive.   when you live on an island . 1st round match up.

Kinda like the "Texas Sub-bracket"?   

[desertcat1]

I think you guys are misunderstanding Ralph's list a little bit. 

It was a list of national games of interest where he said almost every one eliminates one of the teams.  Not that every loser  is eliminated.

You guys have been correct that the Whitworth/Linfield loser is not "eliminated" nor would Wheaton be "eliminated" with a loss to North Central. 

Maybe he should have called it a list of "games that involve teams who might ultimately end up in the Pool C picture" - would that be better?

Missed the almost from law school ? got a keep that "west coast special"  alive.   when you live on an island . 1st round match up.

Kinda like the "Texas Sub-bracket"?   

Yes it is.
We could see UMHB at Catdome too ?  

[USee]

I think you guys are misunderstanding Ralph's list a little bit. 

It was a list of national games of interest where he said almost every one eliminates one of the teams.  Not that every loser  is eliminated.

You guys have been correct that the Whitworth/Linfield loser is not "eliminated" nor would Wheaton be "eliminated" with a loss to North Central. 

Maybe he should have called it a list of "games that involve teams who might ultimately end up in the Pool C picture" - would that be better?

I agree with one exception.  Wheaton @Naperville doesn't fit under "almost" or "every" since Wheaton is not eliminated no matter the result and the Pile of Suck from the South has already been eliminated.

[Ralph Turner]

I think you guys are misunderstanding Ralph's list a little bit. 

It was a list of national games of interest where he said almost every one eliminates one of the teams.  Not that every loser  is eliminated.

You guys have been correct that the Whitworth/Linfield loser is not "eliminated" nor would Wheaton be "eliminated" with a loss to North Central. 

Maybe he should have called it a list of "games that involve teams who might ultimately end up in the Pool C picture" - would that be better?

I agree with one exception.  Wheaton @Naperville doesn't fit under "almost" or "every" since Wheaton is not eliminated no matter the result and the Pile of Suck from the South has already been eliminated.

A Wheaton loss to NCC won't eliminate them, but a loss to both NCC and IWU will.   

CCIW is very strong this year. NCC is the best 2 loss team in the country. I could imagine NCC going 7-3 this year with all three losses coming to teams in the Semi-Finals!

[wally_wabash]

I can't speak for Ralph (he does more than fine on his own), but just so you guys know where I'm coming from when I list the spotlight games each week here, I'm not necessarily looking strictly at games where the loser will be eliminated (although those are the most fun..and we'll get more of those as the season's end gets closer).  There are plenty of games where the loser isn't immediately eliminated, but the result will play a part in the Pool B/C discussion to come.  Wheaton/North Central is a prime example. 

[wally_wabash]

Updated with winners bolded:

Spotlighted Pool B/C games for this weekend.  Not all of these teams are still alive, but generally pose a legitimate threat to those teams that are still alive.  I've bolded the teams here still alive in the Eliminator Table.

Elmhurst  @ North Park
Adrian @ Albion
Denison  @ Wittenberg
Gustavus Adolphus @ St. John's
UW-Stevens Point @ UW-Oshkosh
Muhlenberg @ Gettysburg
Hampden-Sydney @ Emory & Henry
Guilford  @ Bridgewater
Hendrix @ Berry
Chicago  @ Rhodes
Austin @ Trinity(TX)
Huntingdon  @ LaGrange
Brockport State @ Ithaca
Alfred  @ Cortland State
Kean  @ Wesley
Pacific Lutheran @ Whitworth  (dc1 West Coast Special™)

And a couple of other important results that were not spotlighted:
Utica @ SJF
Springfield @ USMMA
Rochester @ RPI
Fitchburg State @ Western Connecticut
Wartburg @ Dubuque

[wally_wabash]

Lots of action in the Eliminator table this week.  Full update coming this evening. 

Also, next week we'll add in the first Pool B/C projection.  I'm going to shoot for a Tuesday post of the Eliminator (fewer teams to watch means it's getting a little easier to sift through every week) and a Wednesday post for the projections. 

[Ralph Turner]

I can't speak for Ralph (he does more than fine on his own), but just so you guys know where I'm coming from when I list the spotlight games each week here, I'm not necessarily looking strictly at games where the loser will be eliminated (although those are the most fun..and we'll get more of those as the season's end gets closer).  There are plenty of games where the loser isn't immediately eliminated, but the result will play a part in the Pool B/C discussion to come.  Wheaton/North Central is a prime example.

+1!   

[wally_wabash]

The Week 7 update to the B/C Eliminator table.  Here is a peek at the logic we are trying to apply as we go through this week to week:

1. Two-loss teams can make the tournament as Pool Cs
2. Three-loss teams never have
3. The last-time we had a conference get three teams in, the 3rd best team was the Pool A.

And with those three main points in mind:

- Three loss teams are automatically out.
- Two-loss teams are still in, unless those teams are already behind a pair of zero or one-loss teams in their own conference.  I think we're pretty close to adhering to this absolutely, but there may be a case here and there where we've knocked out a two-loss team that isn't going accumulate other useful criteria such as high SOS or wins vs. RROs. 

Thanks again to ExTartanPlayer and Bombers798891 for working through this with me.  Teams that we believe are out of at-large contention are in red, teams that I believe are still alive are in green, and Pool B eligible teams are marked with an asterisk(*), all as of Week 7 results.  And this week I've italicized teams that were newly eliminated.

CCIW	HCAC	MIAA	NACC	NCAC	OAC
Carthage	Earlham	Hope	Cocnordia(Wis)	Allegheny	Muskingum
Augustana	Hanover	Alma	Aurora	Hiram	Marietta
North Park	Bluffton	Kalamazoo	Wis Lutheran	Wooster	Heidelberg
Millikin	Anderson	Adrian	Benedictine	Oberlin	Wilmington
North Central	Defiance	Trine	Lakeland	OWU	B-W
Elmhurst	MSJ	Olivet	CUC	Kenyon	Otterbein
Wheaton	Manchester	Albion	Rockford	Witt	Capital
IWU	Franklin			Denison	ONU
	RHIT			Wabash	Mount Union
				DePauw	John Carroll

IIAC	IND	MIAC	MWC	NWC	SCIAC	UMAC	WIAC
BVC	Finlandia*	St. Olaf	Lawrence	L&C	Redlands	IWC	Eau Claire
Dubuque	Maranatha*	Carleton	Macalester	Willamette	Chapman	Martin Luther	River Falls
Loras		Hamline	Carroll	PLU	Whittier	Greenville	La Crosse
Coe		Augsburg	Ripon	UPS	P-PC	Crown	Stout
Simpson		C-MC	Beloit	Pacific	CMS	MacMurray	SP
Luther		St. John's	Grinnell	George Fox	Laverne	Eureka	Oshkosh
Central		Bethel	Lake Forest	Whitworth	Occidental	Minn-Morris	Platteville
Wartburg		St. Thomas	IC	Linfield	Cal Lutheran	SSC	Whitewater
		Gustavus Adolphus	Cornell			Westminster
			Knox			Northwestern
			Monmouth
			St. Norbert

ASC	CC	ODAC	PAC	SAA	SCAC	USAC
LC*	McDaniel	Randolph-Macon	Grove City	Sewanee	Southwestern*	Averett
Bellhaven**	Juniata	Catholic	Thiel	Millsaps	Austin*	Ferrum
HPU*	Dickinson	E&H	Waynesburg	Hendrix	TLU*	NCWC
SRSU*	Ursinus	Bridgewater	CMU	Rhodes	Trinity*	LaGrange
McMurry***	Susquehenna	H-SC	Bethany	WashU		Greensboro
ETBU*	Muhlenberg	W&L	St. Vincent	B-SC		Huntingdon
UMHB*	Moravian	Shenandoah	Westminster	Centre		Methodist
H-SU*	Gettysburg	Guilford	Geneva	Berry		Maryville
	F&M		CWRU	Chicago
	Johns Hopkins		Thomas More
			W&J

ECFC	Empire 8	IND	LL	MAC	MASCAC	NEFC	NJAC
Mount Ida	Buffalo St.	Alfred St.**	Union	Misericordia	Worcester State	Curry	So Virginia
Anna Maria	Hartwick		St. Lawrence	Wilkes	Plymouth State	Nichols	TCNJ
Norwich	SJF		RPI	Leb Valley	Westfield State	Maine Maritime	Montclair St.
Gallaudet	Utica		USMMA	Lycoming	Bridgewater St.	Salve Regina	Salisbury
Husson	Morrisville St.		Springfield	King's	Western Conn.	MIT	WPU
Castleton	Brockport St.		WPI	FDU-F	Mass-Dartmouth	Endicott	CNU
Becker	Alfred		Hobart	Widener	Mass-Maritime	Coast Guard	Frostburg St.
SUNY-MC	Ithaca		Rochester	Del Valley	Framingham St.	Western NE	Rowan
	Cortland St.			Albright	Fitchburg State		Kean
				Stevenson			Wesley

** Provisional, ineligible for postseason
*** Reclassifying, ineligible for postseason

[wally_wabash]

This week's eliminations:
Elmhurst
Denison
UW-Stevens Point
Bridgewater
Emory & Henry
Utica
Springfield
Rochester
Fitchburg State


Gettysburg survives for just a moment.  We'll see what happens with their game vs. Hopkins this weekend.  Kean is also on life support.  And one really interesting team that is now in a very precarious position- Wartburg.  Wartburg has some really difficult common opponent situations (Dubuque/St. John's, Dubuque/Platteville) and if Bethel doesn't make the rankings at the end, they'll be without a quality win.  Not a great place to be with what may well be the pair of single loss WIAC runners up and the possibility of one or two really strong at large profiles from the MIAC as well.  Wartburg may well need Dubuque to lose twice over the next four weeks to make the field. 

Also, an Empire 8 note.  It looks increasingly likely that none of these teams will be Pool C viable in another month, but for right now, we can't knock them out.  They'll do that on their own here soon. 

That leaves 56 teams in play for those 7 at-large bids.  The regional breakdown is:
North - 10
West - 13
South - 17
East - 16

[Mr. Ypsi]

Wally, what was you rationale for eliminating Denison with their FIRST loss?  (I think they got exposed and have zero chance of a C, but they don't seem to be eliminated by your criteria).

[wally_wabash]

Wally, what was you rationale for eliminating Denison with their FIRST loss?  (I think they got exposed and have zero chance of a C, but they don't seem to be eliminated by your criteria).

Denison doesn't project as a team that can handle a second loss.  If they don't pick up that second loss, they'll have beaten DePauw and Wabash and won the league.  If they do lose a second game, they'd have that second loss and they'd be stuck behind whoever loses the Monon Bell Classic...and that's before we even start talking about the rest of the North region and then the remaining three regions.   That loss to a team that won't win the league was a killer for the Big Red.   They're in the Monmouth zone.