Pool C -- 2015

Started by wally_wabash, September 29, 2015, 08:59:25 PM

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desertcat1

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 18, 2015, 08:11:42 PM
Save your energy unless you have a boatload of free time and cannot sleep some night.

As we (CruFootball, Gray Fox and I) were going thru the games for the ASC pick'em contest, we found these national games of interest.  Almost everyone eliminates one of the teams.

Whitworth at Linfield         
Rowan at Wesley                             
UW Oshkosh at UW Platteville         
North Central at Wheaton                       
W&J at Case Western Reserve             
Bethel at St. Thomas                         
Del Val and Albright         
Frank Marshall  and Moravian.

ralph.   both of these ("west coast specials"}  are undefeated  6-0, 5-0, so after the game  won't the one loss team  still be in the running  for a pool c and the winner gets the aq if they win out?   what did i miss?  ;D
" If you are going to be a bear, be a Grizzly"

C.W. Smith

ExTartanPlayer

I think you guys are misunderstanding Ralph's list a little bit. 

It was a list of national games of interest where he said almost every one eliminates one of the teams.  Not that every loser  is eliminated.

You guys have been correct that the Whitworth/Linfield loser is not "eliminated" nor would Wheaton be "eliminated" with a loss to North Central. 

Maybe he should have called it a list of "games that involve teams who might ultimately end up in the Pool C picture" - would that be better?
I was small but made up for it by being slow...

http://athletics.cmu.edu/sports/fball/2011-12/releases/20120629a4jaxa

desertcat1

Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on October 19, 2015, 11:13:16 AM
I think you guys are misunderstanding Ralph's list a little bit. 

It was a list of national games of interest where he said almost every one eliminates one of the teams.  Not that every loser  is eliminated.

You guys have been correct that the Whitworth/Linfield loser is not "eliminated" nor would Wheaton be "eliminated" with a loss to North Central. 

Maybe he should have called it a list of "games that involve teams who might ultimately end up in the Pool C picture" - would that be better?

Missed the almost from law school ? ;D got a keep that "west coast special"  alive. :-*  when you live on an island . :-* 1st round match up. :o
" If you are going to be a bear, be a Grizzly"

C.W. Smith

Ralph Turner

Quote from: desertcat1 on October 19, 2015, 11:38:03 AM
Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on October 19, 2015, 11:13:16 AM
I think you guys are misunderstanding Ralph's list a little bit. 

It was a list of national games of interest where he said almost every one eliminates one of the teams.  Not that every loser  is eliminated.

You guys have been correct that the Whitworth/Linfield loser is not "eliminated" nor would Wheaton be "eliminated" with a loss to North Central. 

Maybe he should have called it a list of "games that involve teams who might ultimately end up in the Pool C picture" - would that be better?

Missed the almost from law school ? ;D got a keep that "west coast special"  alive. :-*  when you live on an island . :-* 1st round match up. :o
Kinda like the "Texas Sub-bracket"?   ;)

desertcat1

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 19, 2015, 12:40:33 PM
Quote from: desertcat1 on October 19, 2015, 11:38:03 AM
Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on October 19, 2015, 11:13:16 AM
I think you guys are misunderstanding Ralph's list a little bit. 

It was a list of national games of interest where he said almost every one eliminates one of the teams.  Not that every loser  is eliminated.

You guys have been correct that the Whitworth/Linfield loser is not "eliminated" nor would Wheaton be "eliminated" with a loss to North Central. 

Maybe he should have called it a list of "games that involve teams who might ultimately end up in the Pool C picture" - would that be better?

Missed the almost from law school ? ;D got a keep that "west coast special"  alive. :-*  when you live on an island . :-* 1st round match up. :o
Kinda like the "Texas Sub-bracket"?   ;)

Yes it is. ;)
We could see UMHB at Catdome too ? ;D 
" If you are going to be a bear, be a Grizzly"

C.W. Smith

USee

Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on October 19, 2015, 11:13:16 AM
I think you guys are misunderstanding Ralph's list a little bit. 

It was a list of national games of interest where he said almost every one eliminates one of the teams.  Not that every loser  is eliminated.

You guys have been correct that the Whitworth/Linfield loser is not "eliminated" nor would Wheaton be "eliminated" with a loss to North Central. 

Maybe he should have called it a list of "games that involve teams who might ultimately end up in the Pool C picture" - would that be better?

I agree with one exception.  Wheaton @Naperville doesn't fit under "almost" or "every" since Wheaton is not eliminated no matter the result and the Pile of Suck from the South has already been eliminated.

Ralph Turner

Quote from: USee on October 19, 2015, 03:59:00 PM
Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on October 19, 2015, 11:13:16 AM
I think you guys are misunderstanding Ralph's list a little bit. 

It was a list of national games of interest where he said almost every one eliminates one of the teams.  Not that every loser  is eliminated.

You guys have been correct that the Whitworth/Linfield loser is not "eliminated" nor would Wheaton be "eliminated" with a loss to North Central. 

Maybe he should have called it a list of "games that involve teams who might ultimately end up in the Pool C picture" - would that be better?

I agree with one exception.  Wheaton @Naperville doesn't fit under "almost" or "every" since Wheaton is not eliminated no matter the result and the Pile of Suck from the South has already been eliminated.
A Wheaton loss to NCC won't eliminate them, but a loss to both NCC and IWU will.   ;)

CCIW is very strong this year. NCC is the best 2 loss team in the country. I could imagine NCC going 7-3 this year with all three losses coming to teams in the Semi-Finals!

wally_wabash

I can't speak for Ralph (he does more than fine on his own), but just so you guys know where I'm coming from when I list the spotlight games each week here, I'm not necessarily looking strictly at games where the loser will be eliminated (although those are the most fun..and we'll get more of those as the season's end gets closer).  There are plenty of games where the loser isn't immediately eliminated, but the result will play a part in the Pool B/C discussion to come.  Wheaton/North Central is a prime example. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

wally_wabash

#83
Updated with winners bolded:

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 15, 2015, 11:30:36 AM
Spotlighted Pool B/C games for this weekend.  Not all of these teams are still alive, but generally pose a legitimate threat to those teams that are still alive.  I've bolded the teams here still alive in the Eliminator Table.

Elmhurst  @ North Park
Adrian @ Albion
Denison  @ Wittenberg
Gustavus Adolphus @ St. John's
UW-Stevens Point @ UW-Oshkosh
Muhlenberg @ Gettysburg
Hampden-Sydney @ Emory & Henry
Guilford  @ Bridgewater
Hendrix @ Berry
Chicago  @ Rhodes
Austin @ Trinity(TX)
Huntingdon  @ LaGrange
Brockport State @ Ithaca
Alfred  @ Cortland State
Kean  @ Wesley
Pacific Lutheran @ Whitworth  (dc1 West Coast Specialâ„¢)

And a couple of other important results that were not spotlighted:
Utica @ SJF
Springfield @ USMMA
Rochester @ RPI
Fitchburg State @ Western Connecticut
Wartburg @ Dubuque
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

wally_wabash

Lots of action in the Eliminator table this week.  Full update coming this evening. 

Also, next week we'll add in the first Pool B/C projection.  I'm going to shoot for a Tuesday post of the Eliminator (fewer teams to watch means it's getting a little easier to sift through every week) and a Wednesday post for the projections. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

Ralph Turner

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 20, 2015, 09:46:39 AM
I can't speak for Ralph (he does more than fine on his own), but just so you guys know where I'm coming from when I list the spotlight games each week here, I'm not necessarily looking strictly at games where the loser will be eliminated (although those are the most fun..and we'll get more of those as the season's end gets closer).  There are plenty of games where the loser isn't immediately eliminated, but the result will play a part in the Pool B/C discussion to come.  Wheaton/North Central is a prime example.
+1!    :)

wally_wabash

#86
The Week 7 update to the B/C Eliminator table.  Here is a peek at the logic we are trying to apply as we go through this week to week:

1. Two-loss teams can make the tournament as Pool Cs
2. Three-loss teams never have
3. The last-time we had a conference get three teams in, the 3rd best team was the Pool A.

And with those three main points in mind:

- Three loss teams are automatically out.
- Two-loss teams are still in, unless those teams are already behind a pair of zero or one-loss teams in their own conference.  I think we're pretty close to adhering to this absolutely, but there may be a case here and there where we've knocked out a two-loss team that isn't going accumulate other useful criteria such as high SOS or wins vs. RROs. 

Thanks again to ExTartanPlayer and Bombers798891 for working through this with me.  Teams that we believe are out of at-large contention are in red, teams that I believe are still alive are in green, and Pool B eligible teams are marked with an asterisk(*), all as of Week 7 results.  And this week I've italicized teams that were newly eliminated.



   CCIW      HCAC      MIAA      NACC      NCAC      OAC   
   Carthage      Earlham      Hope      Cocnordia(Wis)      Allegheny      Muskingum   
   Augustana      Hanover      Alma      Aurora      Hiram      Marietta   
   North Park      Bluffton      Kalamazoo      Wis Lutheran      Wooster      Heidelberg   
   Millikin      Anderson      Adrian      Benedictine      Oberlin      Wilmington   
   North Central      Defiance      Trine      Lakeland      OWU      B-W   
   Elmhurst      MSJ      Olivet      CUC      Kenyon      Otterbein   
   Wheaton      Manchester      Albion      Rockford      Witt      Capital   
   IWU      Franklin                  Denison      ONU   
         RHIT                  Wabash      Mount Union   
                           DePauw      John Carroll   



   IIAC      IND      MIAC      MWC      NWC      SCIAC      UMAC      WIAC   
   BVC      Finlandia*      St. Olaf      Lawrence      L&C      Redlands      IWC      Eau Claire   
   Dubuque      Maranatha*      Carleton      Macalester      Willamette      Chapman      Martin Luther      River Falls   
   Loras            Hamline      Carroll      PLU      Whittier      Greenville      La Crosse   
   Coe            Augsburg      Ripon      UPS      P-PC      Crown      Stout   
   Simpson            C-MC      Beloit      Pacific      CMS      MacMurray      SP   
   Luther            St. John's      Grinnell      George Fox      Laverne      Eureka      Oshkosh   
   Central            Bethel      Lake Forest      Whitworth      Occidental      Minn-Morris      Platteville   
   Wartburg            St. Thomas      IC      Linfield      Cal Lutheran      SSC      Whitewater   
               Gustavus Adolphus      Cornell                  Westminster         
                     Knox                  Northwestern         
                     Monmouth                           
                     St. Norbert                           



   ASC      CC      ODAC      PAC      SAA      SCAC      USAC   
   LC*      McDaniel      Randolph-Macon      Grove City      Sewanee      Southwestern*      Averett   
   Bellhaven**      Juniata      Catholic      Thiel      Millsaps      Austin*      Ferrum   
   HPU*      Dickinson      E&H      Waynesburg      Hendrix      TLU*      NCWC   
   SRSU*      Ursinus      Bridgewater      CMU      Rhodes      Trinity*      LaGrange   
   McMurry***      Susquehenna      H-SC      Bethany      WashU            Greensboro   
   ETBU*      Muhlenberg      W&L      St. Vincent      B-SC            Huntingdon   
   UMHB*      Moravian      Shenandoah      Westminster      Centre            Methodist   
   H-SU*      Gettysburg      Guilford      Geneva      Berry            Maryville   
         F&M            CWRU      Chicago               
         Johns Hopkins            Thomas More                     
                     W&J                     



   ECFC      Empire 8      IND      LL      MAC      MASCAC      NEFC      NJAC   
   Mount Ida      Buffalo St.      Alfred St.**      Union      Misericordia      Worcester State      Curry      So Virginia   
   Anna Maria      Hartwick            St. Lawrence      Wilkes      Plymouth State      Nichols      TCNJ   
   Norwich      SJF            RPI      Leb Valley      Westfield State      Maine Maritime      Montclair St.   
   Gallaudet      Utica            USMMA      Lycoming      Bridgewater St.      Salve Regina      Salisbury   
   Husson      Morrisville St.            Springfield      King's      Western Conn.      MIT      WPU   
   Castleton      Brockport St.            WPI      FDU-F      Mass-Dartmouth      Endicott      CNU   
   Becker      Alfred            Hobart      Widener      Mass-Maritime      Coast Guard      Frostburg St.   
   SUNY-MC      Ithaca            Rochester      Del Valley      Framingham St.      Western NE      Rowan   
         Cortland St.                  Albright      Fitchburg State            Kean   
                           Stevenson                  Wesley   

** Provisional, ineligible for postseason
*** Reclassifying, ineligible for postseason
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

wally_wabash

This week's eliminations:
Elmhurst
Denison
UW-Stevens Point
Bridgewater
Emory & Henry
Utica
Springfield
Rochester
Fitchburg State


Gettysburg survives for just a moment.  We'll see what happens with their game vs. Hopkins this weekend.  Kean is also on life support.  And one really interesting team that is now in a very precarious position- Wartburg.  Wartburg has some really difficult common opponent situations (Dubuque/St. John's, Dubuque/Platteville) and if Bethel doesn't make the rankings at the end, they'll be without a quality win.  Not a great place to be with what may well be the pair of single loss WIAC runners up and the possibility of one or two really strong at large profiles from the MIAC as well.  Wartburg may well need Dubuque to lose twice over the next four weeks to make the field. 

Also, an Empire 8 note.  It looks increasingly likely that none of these teams will be Pool C viable in another month, but for right now, we can't knock them out.  They'll do that on their own here soon. 

That leaves 56 teams in play for those 7 at-large bids.  The regional breakdown is:
North - 10
West - 13
South - 17
East - 16
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

Mr. Ypsi

Wally, what was you rationale for eliminating Denison with their FIRST loss?  (I think they got exposed and have zero chance of a C, but they don't seem to be eliminated by your criteria).

wally_wabash

Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on October 21, 2015, 08:15:03 PM
Wally, what was you rationale for eliminating Denison with their FIRST loss?  (I think they got exposed and have zero chance of a C, but they don't seem to be eliminated by your criteria).

Denison doesn't project as a team that can handle a second loss.  If they don't pick up that second loss, they'll have beaten DePauw and Wabash and won the league.  If they do lose a second game, they'd have that second loss and they'd be stuck behind whoever loses the Monon Bell Classic...and that's before we even start talking about the rest of the North region and then the remaining three regions.   That loss to a team that won't win the league was a killer for the Big Red.   They're in the Monmouth zone.
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire