Pool C -- 2015

[MonroviaCat]

In the pod cast Keith mentions that 5 out of the 6 Pool C teams won this past weekend, which means that 5 out of the remaining 8 games has an at large team in the game. Only one, Mary Hardin-Baylor enjoys a higher ranking in this week's games though. IMO, I think only Wesley and St. John's have a chance at winning this weekend, and if that happens we would still have 3 Pool C teams still in the play-offs out of the remaining 8 teams.

Here's a fun thought, if St. John's and UMHB both win, then Linfield beats Cortland, the Wildcats would then take on UMHB and the Johnnies would take on Wabash or Thomas More. If the Johnnies win, and Linfield wins, it could happen that when they meet in the semi-finals that Linfield would have faced 4 of the 6 at-large teams to get there - Whitworth, Cortland, UMHB and St. John's. Wow.

Except that I think Cortland is Pool A....no?  They could play Whitewater or Ohio Northern in the Stagg Bowl to make this happen though...

[K-Mack]

What do you guys attribute this to? Human nature?

I think the committee members have a responsbility to evaluate all four teams evenly each time they reset the board. There should be no residual effect from having been on the board previously.

Yes- and it's not that unreasonable. If you are on the national committee then you are relying on the wisdom of the RACs- made up of members who know the teams, have seen them play, etc. to give you a definitive but subjective ranking of who is who. The criteria are a guide but the ncaa chooses to let humans make the final call. So you get a list of ten from each region. The committee has a knock down drag out argument between say W5 and E2. It's close. It's very close. You could almost flip a coin between these two hypothetical teams but for whatever reason W5 gets in and next round is replaced by W6. I don't think it's unfair for the national committee to give credence to the RAC slotting W5 ahead of W6 to the point that if you are discussing the next round and E2 almost got in but didn't, and is now being compared to W6, who the RAC told you wasn't as good as W5, that the E2 voters are not likely at all to switch their vote and those that were on the fence but voted for W5 are going to be hard pressed to say that W6 should still get in over that strong E2 candidate. Keep that up over multiple rounds and you get some huge momentum going into round 6.

I think this scenario plays out if in fact the national committee is living in a vacuum.  It's hard to believe the national committee doesn't have an awareness of the overall landscape of D3 football though.  It's hard for me to believe the national committee wasn't already aware of an 8-2 UWP as well as the other likely candidates.  Even if ONU was on the board for a while, the committee must have been aware of the rising pez in the West dispenser.

Even in your scenario, wabndy, it assumes E2 is better than W6 just because it got to the board first, and that's not how it should work. There are five set criteria for that. The West RAC's rankings are great for determining that W5 is better than W6, but you follow closely enough to know that there's no guarantee E-anything is better than W-anything just because it's on the board sooner.

The system, if followed correctly, should be foolproof. It could allow for every at-large team from the same region if those were the teams that graded out best on the criteria.

[Ralph Turner]

In the pod cast Keith mentions that 5 out of the 6 Pool C teams won this past weekend, which means that 5 out of the remaining 8 games has an at large team in the game. Only one, Mary Hardin-Baylor enjoys a higher ranking in this week's games though. IMO, I think only Wesley and St. John's have a chance at winning this weekend, and if that happens we would still have 3 Pool C teams still in the play-offs out of the remaining 8 teams.

Here's a fun thought, if St. John's and UMHB both win, then Linfield beats Cortland, the Wildcats would then take on UMHB and the Johnnies would take on Wabash or Thomas More. If the Johnnies win, and Linfield wins, it could happen that when they meet in the semi-finals that Linfield would have faced 4 of the 6 at-large teams to get there - Whitworth, Cortland, UMHB and St. John's. Wow.

Except that I think Cortland is Pool A....no?  They could play Whitewater or Ohio Northern in the Stagg Bowl to make this happen though...

ONU handled itself very nicely.

[K-Mack]

Let's revisit this before 2nd & 3rd rounds.

Geographic proximity wreaks havoc with the Linfield bracket.

Well, after the first round of the 2015 play-offs, here's who is left standing with their pre-play-off rankings:

4 St. Thomas
10 St. John's

9 Thomas More
7 Wabash

2 Linfield
25 Cortland

35 Huntingdon
13 Mary Hardin-Baylor

1 Mount Union
20 Albright

11 Wesley
8 Johns Hopkins

3 Oshkosh
26 Ohio Northern

5 Whitewater
6 Wheaton

So, adding up the quadrants:

St. Thomas = 30

Linfield = 75

Mount Union = 40

Oshkosh = 40

So, overall, the "toughest bracket" is still the St. Thomas bracket. There are going to be 4 fairly close games, if you have faith in the D3 pollsters, as we have numbers 5 and 6 playing, numbers 7 and 9 playing, numbers 8 and 11 playing and numbers 4 and 10 playing.  The other four games, not so much, as we have number 2 taking on number 25, number 13 taking on number 35, number 1 against number 20 and number 3 against number 26.

That Linfield bracket number is heavily skewed by the fact that in a cost-unconstrained world, HSU and UMHB would have played and likely beaten Hendrix and Huntingdon this weekend.

[Ralph Turner]

Let's revisit this before 2nd & 3rd rounds.

Geographic proximity wreaks havoc with the Linfield bracket.

Well, after the first round of the 2015 play-offs, here's who is left standing with their pre-play-off rankings:

4 St. Thomas
10 St. John's

9 Thomas More
7 Wabash

2 Linfield
25 Cortland

35 Huntingdon
13 Mary Hardin-Baylor

1 Mount Union
20 Albright

11 Wesley
8 Johns Hopkins

3 Oshkosh
26 Ohio Northern

5 Whitewater
6 Wheaton

So, adding up the quadrants:

St. Thomas = 30

Linfield = 75

Mount Union = 40

Oshkosh = 40

So, overall, the "toughest bracket" is still the St. Thomas bracket. There are going to be 4 fairly close games, if you have faith in the D3 pollsters, as we have numbers 5 and 6 playing, numbers 7 and 9 playing, numbers 8 and 11 playing and numbers 4 and 10 playing.  The other four games, not so much, as we have number 2 taking on number 25, number 13 taking on number 35, number 1 against number 20 and number 3 against number 26.

That Linfield bracket number is heavily skewed by the fact that in a cost-unconstrained world, HSU and UMHB would have played and likely beaten Hendrix and Huntingdon this weekend.

... which would have dropped the Linfield Bracket total to 2+12+13+25= 52.

[art76]

In the pod cast Keith mentions that 5 out of the 6 Pool C teams won this past weekend, which means that 5 out of the remaining 8 games has an at large team in the game. Only one, Mary Hardin-Baylor enjoys a higher ranking in this week's games though. IMO, I think only Wesley and St. John's have a chance at winning this weekend, and if that happens we would still have 3 Pool C teams still in the play-offs out of the remaining 8 teams.

Here's a fun thought, if St. John's and UMHB both win, then Linfield beats Cortland, the Wildcats would then take on UMHB and the Johnnies would take on Wabash or Thomas More. If the Johnnies win, and Linfield wins, it could happen that when they meet in the semi-finals that Linfield would have faced 4 of the 6 at-large teams to get there - Whitworth, Cortland, UMHB and St. John's. Wow.

Except that I think Cortland is Pool A....no?  They could play Whitewater or Ohio Northern in the Stagg Bowl to make this happen though...

My bad - yes, I agree that Cortland was Pool A not Pool C.

[Ralph Turner]

Just posting some observations - similar to what I've done in past years.

Taking the D3 Top 25 rankings, extending them all the way out to teams receiving votes, so that teams not receiving votes get a 38th ranking, here's what we get for the initial pairings:

4 St. Thomas
37 LaVerne

18 Dubuque
10 St. John's

9 Thomas More
16 Washington and Lee

34 Albion
7 Wabash

2 Linfield
22 Whitworth

21 Salisbury
25 Cortland

35 Huntingdon
38 Hendrix

13 Mary Hardin-Baylor
12 Hardin-Simmons

1 Mount Union
36 St. Lawrence

38 Norwich
20 Albright

11 Wesley
30 Framingham State

33 Western New England
8 Johns Hopkins

3 Oshkosh
38 St. Scholastica

26 Ohio Northern
27 Franklin

5 Whitewater
28 St. Norbert

38 Lakeland
6 Wheaton

In the four quadrants, if you add up the total of the rankings, in theory, the lower the score, the tougher the bracket is as a whole with the totals applying to the first round

St. Thomas quadrant = 135   Second round   = 30;    third round = 11 pts
Linfield quadrant = 168       Second round    =    65;   third round = 15 pts
Mount Union quadrant = 177   Second round =  40;   third round  = 12 pts
Oshkosh quadrant = 171     Second round  =  42;      third round  =  8 pts.

First round losers are stricken.
Second round losers are stricken and in bold font.

[wesleydad]

Just posting some observations - similar to what I've done in past years.

Taking the D3 Top 25 rankings, extending them all the way out to teams receiving votes, so that teams not receiving votes get a 38th ranking, here's what we get for the initial pairings:

4 St. Thomas
37 LaVerne

18 Dubuque
10 St. John's

9 Thomas More
16 Washington and Lee

34 Albion
7 Wabash

2 Linfield
22 Whitworth

21 Salisbury
25 Cortland

35 Huntingdon
38 Hendrix

13 Mary Hardin-Baylor
12 Hardin-Simmons

1 Mount Union
36 St. Lawrence

38 Norwich
20 Albright

11 Wesley
30 Framingham State

33 Western New England
8 Johns Hopkins

3 Oshkosh
38 St. Scholastica

26 Ohio Northern
27 Franklin

5 Whitewater
28 St. Norbert

38 Lakeland
6 Wheaton

In the four quadrants, if you add up the total of the rankings, in theory, the lower the score, the tougher the bracket is as a whole with the totals applying to the first round

St. Thomas quadrant = 135   Second round   = 30;    third round = 11 pts
Linfield quadrant = 168       Second round    =    65;   third round = 15 pts
Mount Union quadrant = 177   Second round =  40;   third round  = 12 pts
Oshkosh quadrant = 171     Second round  =  42;      third round  =  8 pts.

First round losers are stricken.
Second round losers are stricken and in bold font.

If you dont have the loses by UWW, UMHB, and Wesley all the 1/4s would look real tough.  I know the brackets would not have ended up this way, but in the end these are probably the top 8 of maybe 10 teams in the country.

[art76]

4 St. Thomas
7 Wabash

2 Linfield
13 UMHB

1 Mount Union
11 Wesley

3 Oshkosh
5 Whitewater

1, 2, 3, 4 ,5, 7, 11, and 13 - still alive

6, 8, 10 knocked out this past week.

You have to give the guys at D3Football props for picking the top 5 teams in the country and the NCAA props for making sure as many of these top teams are still left playing at week 14.  (I know there is no collusion between the two, but you have to agree the two independent systems seem to confirm what the other is doing.)

[jknezek]

Chalk and cheese. Only JHU and HSU have been "upset", and both of those happened to teams within 3 places of them in the rankings, basically a wash. DIII football has got to be one of the least surprising sporting events on the planet.

[Toby Taff]

Chalk and cheese. Only JHU and HSU have been "upset", and both of those happened to teams within 3 places of them in the rankings, basically a wash. DIII football has got to be one of the least surprising sporting events on the planet.

but entertainig

[retagent]

You also have to realize that there haven't been that many games where the rankings were very close. I would look for some "surprises" in the next round or two.

[K-Mack]

Chalk and cheese. Only JHU and HSU have been "upset", and both of those happened to teams within 3 places of them in the rankings, basically a wash. DIII football has got to be one of the least surprising sporting events on the planet.

but entertainig

It gets better. The past three or so years, the semifinals have had at least one epic game.

[gordonmann]

Chalk and cheese. Only JHU and HSU have been "upset", and both of those happened to teams within 3 places of them in the rankings, basically a wash. DIII football has got to be one of the least surprising sporting events on the planet.

but entertainig

Depends on which teams you follow closely.

I've only been following this from a distance this year and I'm several years removed from following this anywhere near as closely as Pat, Keith and many others on this board. But there have been 24 playoff games and it seems like only a handful have been within one score late in the fourth quarter. 

This weekend there were two great finishes (Wabash and Wesley wins) and two that were theoretically close but didn't seem that way from a distance (one team leading by two scores for most of the game). The rest were not close.

Hope the next couple weeks are better.

[jknezek]

You also have to realize that there haven't been that many games where the rankings were very close. I would look for some "surprises" in the next round or two.

Again, if they are close it's a wash. Most large scale tournaments we see big upsets. 15vs2 in March Madness. Even 12 vs 5. We just don't get those. Even the FCS tournament has upsets. Last year Sam Houston State for example beating the 3 and 6 seeds.

DIII is incredibly tiered. The haves are playing a different game than most of the division. I don't have a problem with it since it is all done within the rules, but it's very rare to see large scale tournaments like what happens in DIII with so much imbalance and almost never a significant upset.

What was the last really significant upset anyone can remember? JHU over TMC in 2009? UMHB over UMU in 2004? Rowan over Wilkes 2006? Not really great options to choose from...