Pool C -- 2015

[ExTartanPlayer]

That's the key thing to remember - the first loss doesn't eliminate Denison from the playoffs entirely, but if they win out and go 9-1 they will win the league (and therefore will not be in Pool C).  If they lose to either Wabash or DePauw and finish 8-2, they'll find themselves in a bad place, probably tied with Wittenberg at 8-2 overall with a h2h Wittenberg loss that probably puts them behind Wittenberg in the North's Pool C queue.  To make the field as an 8-2 Pool C you need something extra - a win over an RRO, a big SOS number.  8-2 Denison will not have those things, and will stack up as the third or fourth best team in the NCAC.  Pigs will fly before the lowbrow NCAC gets three teams into the tournament.  I don't think conference affiliations should matter in this, but they do.  I know the Empire 8 got three teams in once - has any other league ever gotten three teams in under the current format?

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

That's the key thing to remember - the first loss doesn't eliminate Denison from the playoffs entirely, but if they win out and go 9-1 they will win the league (and therefore will not be in Pool C).  If they lose to either Wabash or DePauw and finish 8-2, they'll find themselves in a bad place, probably tied with Wittenberg at 8-2 overall with a h2h Wittenberg loss that probably puts them behind Wittenberg in the North's Pool C queue.  To make the field as an 8-2 Pool C you need something extra - a win over an RRO, a big SOS number.  8-2 Denison will not have those things, and will stack up as the third or fourth best team in the NCAC.  Pigs will fly before the lowbrow NCAC gets three teams into the tournament.  I don't think conference affiliations should matter in this, but they do.  I know the Empire 8 got three teams in once - has any other league ever gotten three teams in under the current format?

Not that I think it'll happen but if Denison finishes 8-2 that means they'd have a win over either Wabash or DePauw

[Mr. Ypsi]

That's the key thing to remember - the first loss doesn't eliminate Denison from the playoffs entirely, but if they win out and go 9-1 they will win the league (and therefore will not be in Pool C).  If they lose to either Wabash or DePauw and finish 8-2, they'll find themselves in a bad place, probably tied with Wittenberg at 8-2 overall with a h2h Wittenberg loss that probably puts them behind Wittenberg in the North's Pool C queue.  To make the field as an 8-2 Pool C you need something extra - a win over an RRO, a big SOS number.  8-2 Denison will not have those things, and will stack up as the third or fourth best team in the NCAC.  Pigs will fly before the lowbrow NCAC gets three teams into the tournament.  I don't think conference affiliations should matter in this, but they do.  I know the Empire 8 got three teams in once - has any other league ever gotten three teams in under the current format?

Don't know, but the WIAC certainly has a chance this year.  (And the CCIW IF Wheaton, NCC, and IWU all go 1-1 on h-t-h and NCC wins the tie-break (with Wheaton and IWU both going 9-1 - a doubtful scenario, but it COULD happen).

[art76]

That's the key thing to remember - the first loss doesn't eliminate Denison from the playoffs entirely, but if they win out and go 9-1 they will win the league (and therefore will not be in Pool C).  If they lose to either Wabash or DePauw and finish 8-2, they'll find themselves in a bad place, probably tied with Wittenberg at 8-2 overall with a h2h Wittenberg loss that probably puts them behind Wittenberg in the North's Pool C queue.  To make the field as an 8-2 Pool C you need something extra - a win over an RRO, a big SOS number.  8-2 Denison will not have those things, and will stack up as the third or fourth best team in the NCAC.  Pigs will fly before the lowbrow NCAC gets three teams into the tournament.  I don't think conference affiliations should matter in this, but they do.  I know the Empire 8 got three teams in once - has any other league ever gotten three teams in under the current format?

Don't know, but the WIAC certainly has a chance this year.  (And the CCIW IF Wheaton, NCC, and IWU all go 1-1 on h-t-h and NCC wins the tie-break (with Wheaton and IWU both going 9-1 - a doubtful scenario, but it COULD happen).

In the MIAC, if Concordia-Moorhead could upset St. Thomas when they meet, and these two teams and St. John's win out, there could also be a three way tie at the top of the conference at 9 and 1.

[USee]

And if all three of those scenarios (MIAC, WIAC, CCIW) happen this year, we will have a serious issue in Pool C. The odds of that happening are better than the odds of the final play of Michigan v Michigan State.

[ExTartanPlayer]

And if all three of those scenarios (MIAC, WIAC, CCIW) happen this year, we will have a serious issue in Pool C. The odds of that happening are better than the odds of the final play of Michigan v Michigan State.

Exactly.  This is starting to remind me of those "What if" scenarios that emerge in D1 every year (including this one) right around now when people look at the long list of 6-0 and 5-1 teams and wonder "What happens if all five major conference champs end up undefeated?" or "What if the committee has to decide between four one-loss teams for the last playoff spot?"

Re: the WIAC...I'm not sure I actually see a (realistic) path for them to get 3.  Does anyone know the tiebreaker?  If UWP beats UWO this week and all finish with 1 league loss, who gets the Pool A?  Regardless of what you think of the actual quality of the respective teams and the difficulty in non-conference scheduling, UWP would have the strongest Pool C case thanks to the North Central and Dubuque wins (assuming that DBQ keeps some momentum after beating Wartburg, that is) because UWW and UWO (through no fault of their own) do not have the primo non-conference win.  So if you're rooting for the WIAC to get multiple C's this year, I think the scenario that has to happen is UWP beating UWO this week, but UWO still getting the AQ bid (Oshkosh would have the weakest Pool C case of the three with two unhelpful OOC wins and a non-division loss), UWP getting in at 9-1 with wins over CCIW champion North Central and IIAC champion Dubuque (note: one of the things I like best about wally's Pool C proposal in the WIAC board is adding a criteria for "win over a team that's already in the field"), and UWW getting in at 9-1 under the unofficial "defending national champion with strong record should not be left out of the field, official criteria be damned" clause.

But...history suggests we probably aren't going to get all the way there.  Because one of those teams is probably going to lose another game, one that we don't necessarily see coming.  I remember getting all excited about 2011 Oshkosh's Pool C chances after they played a close one with UWW (8-2 with losses to Mount and UWW! They have to be in!) and then they went out and lost again the next week.  Somebody is going to get picked off again.  Maybe it will be UWW this week against Stevens Point.  Maybe La Crosse is going to pick off Platteville or Oshkosh. 

The MIAC is even less likely to flesh out in the "three 9-1 teams" scenario.  Too many good teams in that league.  Bethel still has cracks at St. John's and St. Thomas.  Gustavus Adolphus still has Concordia-Moorhead and St. Thomas.  Way too much potential for carnage there.

[wally_wabash]

TBQH, one reason why I wanted to wait one more week to do a B/C projection is because this week helps firm up some of these what if scenarios.  Oshkosh/Platteville is going to help us figure out if we've got a clear WIAC leader or if we have to account for it getting weird.  Wheaton/NCC helps as well.  The MIAC doesn't help much this week- how is it that 5/9 of that league is awesome and they only ever stage one really good matchup per week?  Doesn't seem mathematically possible. 

To that end, here are some Week 8 games to keep an eye on for Pool B/C purposes.  LOT of important action this weekend. 
Note: updated to bold teams still alive in the at-large pools and to identify games that I see as loser out games.

Wheaton @ North Central
Franklin @ Rose-Hulman
Bethel @ St. Thomas
UW-Oshkosh @ UW-Platteville
TLU @ UMHB
Johns Hopkins @ Gettysburg
F&M @ Moravian [elimination game]
W&J @ CWRU [elimination game]
Brockport St. @ Cortland St.
RPI @ Hobart
Widener @ Stevenson [elimination game]
Delaware Valley @ Albright
Salisbury @ Kean
Rowan @ Wesley
The dc1 West Coast Special™: Whitworth @ Linfield

[AO]

The MIAC is even less likely to flesh out in the "three 9-1 teams" scenario.  Too many good teams in that league.  Bethel still has cracks at St. John's and St. Thomas.  Gustavus Adolphus still has Concordia-Moorhead and St. Thomas.  Way too much potential for carnage there.

Gustavus and Bethel are going to be double digit underdogs in those games, but certainly they could find a way to win 1 of those 4.

[Andy Jamison - Walla Walla Wildcat]

As a continuation of the thread in the WIAC board regarding AQs and Pool C...

I've been thinking about why AQs bother me (as do awarding Pool C to non-power conference teams) and realized that it is because they seem to give much easier paths to the 3rd round for MUC and Wesley each year than what happens to the other semi-finalists.

If we had a playoff where all 1-32 teams were seeded and #1 played #32, #2 played #31, etc. this would provide a much more level playoff field that the current Regional setup.  As it stands the playoff path for MUC and Wesley seems to include much softer games in rounds 1 & 2 (based on rankings and score differential).

[wally_wabash]

As a continuation of the thread in the WIAC board regarding AQs and Pool C...

I've been thinking about why AQs bother me (as do awarding Pool C to non-power conference teams) and realized that it is because they seem to give much easier paths to the 3rd round for MUC and Wesley each year than what happens to the other semi-finalists.

If we had a playoff where all 1-32 teams were seeded and #1 played #32, #2 played #31, etc. this would provide a much more level playoff field that the current Regional setup.  As it stands the playoff path for MUC and Wesley seems to include much softer games in rounds 1 & 2 (based on rankings and score differential).

I mean, if you're salty that Linfield gets a tough draw, you're picking on the wrong thing.  Linfield gets a tough draw because of geography and Division III is, relatively speaking, cheap.  Being fair to Linfield or UMHB or whoever else is orphaned geographically doesn't trump expense.  It's the economics you're upset about, not the selection process. 

[Ralph Turner]

As a continuation of the thread in the WIAC board regarding AQs and Pool C...

I've been thinking about why AQs bother me (as do awarding Pool C to non-power conference teams) and realized that it is because they seem to give much easier paths to the 3rd round for MUC and Wesley each year than what happens to the other semi-finalists.

If we had a playoff where all 1-32 teams were seeded and #1 played #32, #2 played #31, etc. this would provide a much more level playoff field that the current Regional setup.  As it stands the playoff path for MUC and Wesley seems to include much softer games in rounds 1 & 2 (based on rankings and score differential).

Wally Wabash is right. Geographical proximity is the issue.

Back in your NAIA days, you had to raise your money to go to a playoff game.

The current March Madness TV contract is what pays for the expanded playoff system in which AQ's (for all sports both genders) are provided at a ratio of 1 playoff bid for every 6.5 teams in most sports and to the 32 team field in football. 

We should be grateful that we have access.

Don't worry, most fans know that the West Region and the ASC are tougher than the northeast in most cases.  (As a conference to follow?  I like the new NJAC and the E8!)

[Bengalsrule]

This week's eliminations:
Elmhurst
Denison
UW-Stevens Point
Bridgewater
Emory & Henry
Utica
Springfield
Rochester
Fitchburg State


Gettysburg survives for just a moment.  We'll see what happens with their game vs. Hopkins this weekend.  Kean is also on life support.  And one really interesting team that is now in a very precarious position- Wartburg.  Wartburg has some really difficult common opponent situations (Dubuque/St. John's, Dubuque/Platteville) and if Bethel doesn't make the rankings at the end, they'll be without a quality win.  Not a great place to be with what may well be the pair of single loss WIAC runners up and the possibility of one or two really strong at large profiles from the MIAC as well.  Wartburg may well need Dubuque to lose twice over the next four weeks to make the field. 

Also, an Empire 8 note.  It looks increasingly likely that none of these teams will be Pool C viable in another month, but for right now, we can't knock them out.  They'll do that on their own here soon. 

That leaves 56 teams in play for those 7 at-large bids.  The regional breakdown is:
North - 10
West - 13
South - 17
East - 16

I sure hope that 2/3 of our E8 teams prove you wrong!!

[wally_wabash]

Winners from the spotlight games bolded:

Wheaton @ North Central
Franklin @ Rose-Hulman
Bethel @ St. Thomas
UW-Oshkosh @ UW-Platteville
TLU @ UMHB
Johns Hopkins @ Gettysburg
F&M @ Moravian
W&J @ CWRU
Brockport St. @ Cortland St.
RPI @ Hobart
Widener @ Stevenson
Delaware Valley @ Albright
Salisbury @ Kean
Rowan @ Wesley
The dc1 West Coast Special™: Whitworth @ Linfield

And some other important results:
Trine @ Albion
DePauw @ Ohio Wesleyan
Cal Lutheran @ Chapman
Hendrix @ Chicago
Ithaca @ Morrisville State

[ExTartanPlayer]

I know that we're still a week or two away from full clarity here and wally's first attempt at a Pool C exercise, but as a complimentary piece of information here, I think I'm going to run through all of the conferences right now, list the current leader, and identify any key games yet to determine the league title.  It's not Pool C per se, but as we all know, Pool A must be filled before we can actually swim around in Pool C.

Will come back and post the Pool A picks/candidates this afternoon.

[ExTartanPlayer]

So here's a look at where all of the conference races stand.  I have tried to list all teams that are leading the league along with any others who are still alive (in realistic scenarios) and subsequent matchups between teams that are still vying for the respective titles.  For clarity, when I refer to a "one-loss team" in this post, I am referring to the number of LEAGUE losses, since I am writing this in the prism of "Who still can win the conference title?" 

This is long and I may have missed something, so apologies in advance for any oversights, typos, etc.
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Centennial Conference:

Leader: Johns Hopkins.  The Jays have already beaten second-place Moravian head-to-head so they have an effective two-game lead on the field.  I'm calling this one about 98% sewn up with the way JHU has owned this league over the last decade.
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CCIW:

Leaders: Wheaton, Illinois Wesleyan.  There are still two legs to go in this title race: first, Illinois Wesleyan must beat North Central this coming Saturday.  If they accomplish that, the following week Wheaton and Illinois Wesleyan will play for control of the CCIW title picture outright.  If North Central beats IWU next week, the calculus changes and IWU will need to beat Wheaton to create a three-way tie.  Both Wheaton and IWU control their destinies at the moment.  North Central is still alive but needs help.
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ECFC:

Leaders: Husson, Norwich.  Both undefeated in league play and in control of their destinies with a showdown looming on 11/7 for control of the league title picture.  Castleton lurks in third with 1 league loss...although they have already lost to Husson, if Norwich beats Husson then Castleton would play Norwich on 11/14 with a chance to create a three-way tie.  Similar to CCIW: Husson and Norwich control their own destiny, Castleton is alive but needs help.
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Empire 8:

Leader: Cortland State.  This is a huge mess.  Cortland has one loss, three teams have 2 losses, and no result in this league can be taken for granted.  I'm not even going to try to list the different scenarios still in play here.  It's still entirely possible this could come down to a tie with 3 or 4 teams.
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HCAC:

Leader: Franklin.  The Grizzlies just beat second-place Rose-Hulman this week and, like Johns Hopkins, have what amounts to a two-game lead on the field with three to play.  Probably about 98 percent sure here as well, similar to Johns Hopkins against the Centennial.
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IIAC:

Leader: Dubuque, undefeated in league play, holding a one-game lead over Wartburg with h2h victory in hand.  Dubuque plays 1-loss Loras this week, and with a win would also have the "effective two game lead" on the entire field.  If Loras beats Dubuque, a number of different scenarios come back into play.
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Liberty League:

Leader: St. Lawrence, also with the "win over second place team" (RPI) securely in hand, giving them an effective two-game lead with three to play.  St. Lawrence doesn't quite have the same history of lording over this league that JHU does over the Centennial and Franklin does over the HCAC, so I don't know if this race is OVER in all caps like those two are, but it's close.
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MAC:

Leaders: Albright, Delaware Valley, Stevenson (all one-loss in conference play).  Delaware Valley owns h2h wins over both Albright and Stevenson so they're in the driver's seat here, and they're the only team in control of their own destiny.  Albright and Stevenson play next week; the winner of that game will have to win out and hope that someone (Widener?) can upset Delaware Valley.
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MASCAC:

Leader: Framingham State.  Has a one-game lead but yet to play current second-place team, Bridgewater State.  Winner of that game likely takes the league; both Framingham State and Bridgewater State control their own destiny.
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MIAA:

Leader: Olivet.  Trine's upset over Albion this week muddies the picture a little.  Olivet is undefeated and controls their fate; if Albion beats Olivet next week, that could create a three-way tie with Olivet, Trine, and Albion atop the league (not a given, either, as this league can be somewhat unpredictable).
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MIAC:

Leader: St. Thomas.  There are three one-loss teams lurking but Concordia-Moorhead's game this week will likely determine the league title.  If CM upsets St. Thomas we have a lot of scenarios in play.  If UST wins they will probably take the league, although they do still play one-loss Gustavus Adolphus (who would be a heavy underdog and may have multiple losses by the time that game is played).  St. John's is also sitting with one loss but it came against UST, so they need help.
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MWC:

Leader: the MWC is (I think) the only Division III league with two divisions.  St. Norbert and Monmouth are presently in control of their divisions and on track to meet in the league title game to determine the Pool A selection.  Macalester has one loss and a game remaining with St. Norbert, so they might be able to nose their way into the league title game with an upset.
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NACC:

Leaders: Benedictine, Lakeland.  This week Lakeland plays third-place Concordia (Wisconsin).  If Lakeland wins that game, the Benedictine/Lakeland game will decide the title outright.  If Concordia wins, that brings the possibility of a three-way tie into play.
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NCAC:

Leader: Wabash.  The Monon Bell game was looking like an exciting showdown of 9-0's until DePauw went out and lost to Ohio Wesleyan this week.  Technically both Denison and DePauw are still alive if they can upset Wabash.  But really, this one's over, folks.
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NEFC:

Leader: Western New England.  WNE has three games remaining against three teams who all only have one league loss of their own (Endicott, Coast Guard, Salve Regina) so this league has a series of elimination games remaining.  WNE is probably the heavy favorite.
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NESCAC

Just kidding!
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NJAC:

Leaders: Wesley, Salisbury.  Both undefeated in the league and scheduled to play11/7 for the game that should decide the league title (I assume that Salisbury's canceled game with TCNJ has effectively no bearing on the league championship).  However, surprising Frostburg State is lurking with one loss vs. Wesley and a game remaining against Salisbury...so if Salisbury is able to upset Wesley, Frostburg will play Salisbury on 11/14 with a share of the league title at stake.
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NWC:

Leader: Linfield.  Just notched a 52-10 win over Whitworth and also already blew out Pacific.  Technically still has to beat one-loss Puget Sound to seal the title but I'm guessing that will not be a problem.
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OAC:

Next question.

OK, fine.  Mount Union is the leader and still has to play John Carroll and Baldwin-Wallace, both with only one loss.  In a related story, Mount Union has outscored opponents 405-31 this year, including a 51-7 win against Ohio Northern (who beat John Carroll and lost 17-14 to Baldwin-Wallace).  I'll give BW some credit for bouncing back from a bad opening loss to reach 5-2, but come on.  These guys aren't beating Mount this year.
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ODAC:

Leader: Washington & Lee, who sits undefeated with three one-loss lurkers.  W & L should be out of the woods if they can beat Emory & Henry this week; the other 1-loss teams, Guilford and Hampden-Sydney, already have lost to W &L and need help.
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PAC:

Leaders: Thomas More, Case Western.  CWRU beat W & J this week to insert themselves formally into the race.  The two undefeated leaders will play on 11/7 for the title.  W & J has lost to both so I think this is down to a two-horse race in any realistic scenario.
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SAA:

Leader: Berry.  The third-year program is in the driver's seat after beating fellow third-year program and current second-place team Hendrix (the only 1-loss team in the league).  Everyone else has two or more league losses, so only calamity can take the title from Berry.
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SCIAC:

Leader: La Verne.  One of the more surprising stories of the season, La Verne is undefeated in league play and owns a h2h victory over the only 1-loss team, Claremont-Mudd-Scrips.  They are safe if they can win at least two of their last three.
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UMAC:

Leader: St. Scholastica, undefeated in league play with a h2h victory over the only 1-loss team, Northwestern.  Probably has this one wrapped up.
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USAC:

Leader: Huntingdon, with 1-loss Maryville looming on 11/7.  A Huntingdon win there would likely win the league.  Maryville's loss is against NC Wesleyan, way down in the league standings, so I don't think there are any three-way tie scenarios in play here.
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WIAC:

Leader: UW-Oshkosh, who is undefeated with h2h wins over UWP and UWW.  UWO has to beat one-loss UW-River Falls this week to put themselves totally out of the woods, and if they do that will almost seal this race.
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ASC*

Leaders: UMHB, Hardin-Simmons.  UMHB @ Hardin-Simmons, 10/31 will decide the league...probably.  ETBU still has games against both but seems unlikely to beat both.

*the ASC does not have an AQ this year, but the winner of the UMHB-HSU game is likely your Pool B team.  I did not list the independents and the SCAC anywhere.  Trinity (SCAC) is 6-1 and maybe kinda-sorta alive as a Pool B team but they won't get selected over UMHB or HSU so we're probably putting them into Pool C.