Pool C -- 2015

[Ralph Turner]

Excellent work!

One suggestion: consider placing an asterisk by the teams that can also get in through Pool B.  If I am reading the handbook correctly, this would be the three independents (Finlandia, Maranatha, and Alfred State), and the teams in the ASC and SCAC.  Currently there are 5 teams remaining out of this Pool B bunch (in no particular order):

1. UMHB
2. H-SC
3. Austin
4. TLU
5. Trinity

Can you share the URL to the 2015 D-3 Football Handbook?

Thanks.

Ralph-

Here you go.

Thanks, Wally.  I count 12 Pool B schools.

Nebraska Wesleyan is Independent and not declaring this year.

[wally_wabash]

The Week 6 update to the B/C Eliminator table.  Here is a peek at the logic we are trying to apply as we go through this week to week:

1. Two-loss teams can make the tournament as Pool Cs
2. Three-loss teams never have
3. The last-time we had a conference get three teams in, the 3rd best team was the Pool A.

And with those three main points in mind:

- Three loss teams are automatically out.
- Two-loss teams are still in, unless those teams are already behind a pair of zero or one-loss teams in their own conference.  I think we're pretty close to adhering to this absolutely, but there may be a case here and there where we've knocked out a two-loss team that isn't going accumulate other useful criteria such as high SOS or wins vs. RROs. 

Thanks again to ExTartanPlayer and Bombers798891 for working through this with me.  Teams that we believe are out of at-large contention are in red, teams that I believe are still alive are in green, and Pool B eligible teams are marked with an asterisk(*), all as of Week 6 results.  And this week I've italicized teams that were newly eliminated.

CCIW	HCAC	MIAA	NACC	NCAC	OAC
Carthage	Earlham	Hope	Cocnordia(Wis)	Allegheny	Muskingum
Augustana	Hanover	Alma	Aurora	Hiram	Marietta
North Park	Bluffton	Kalamazoo	Wis Lutheran	Wooster	Heidelberg
Millikin	Anderson	Adrian	Benedictine	Oberlin	Wilmington
North Central	Defiance	Trine	Lakeland	OWU	B-W
Elmhurst	MSJ	Olivet	CUC	Kenyon	Otterbein
Wheaton	Manchester	Albion	Rockford	Witt	Capital
IWU	Franklin			Denison	ONU
	RHIT			Wabash	Mount Union
				DePauw	John Carroll

IIAC	IND	MIAC	MWC	NWC	SCIAC	UMAC	WIAC
BVC	Finlandia*	St. Olaf	Lawrence	L&C	Redlands	IWC	Eau Claire
Dubuque	Maranatha*	Carleton	Macalester	Willamette	Chapman	Martin Luther	River Falls
Loras		Hamline	Carroll	PLU	Whittier	Greenville	La Crosse
Coe		Augsburg	Ripon	UPS	P-PC	Crown	Stout
Simpson		C-MC	Beloit	Pacific	CMS	MacMurray	SP
Luther		St. John's	Grinnell	George Fox	Laverne	Eureka	Oshkosh
Central		Bethel	Lake Forest	Whitworth	Occidental	Minn-Morris	Platteville
Wartburg		St. Thomas	IC	Linfield	Cal Lutheran	SSC	Whitewater
		Gustavus Adolphus	Cornell			Westminster
			Knox			Northwestern
			Monmouth
			St. Norbert

ASC	CC	ODAC	PAC	SAA	SCAC	USAC
LC*	McDaniel	Randolph-Macon	Grove City	Sewanee	Southwestern*	Averett
Bellhaven*	Juniata	Catholic	Thiel	Millsaps	Austin*	Ferrum
HPU*	Dickinson	E&H	Waynesburg	Hendrix	TLU*	NCWC
SRSU*	Ursinus	Bridgewater	CMU	Rhodes	Trinity*	LaGrange
McMurry*	Susquehenna	H-SC	Bethany	WashU		Greensboro
ETBU*	Muhlenberg	W&L	St. Vincent	B-SC		Huntingdon
UMHB*	Moravian	Shenandoah	Westminster	Centre		Methodist
H-SU*	Gettysburg	Guilford	Geneva	Berry		Maryville
	F&M		CWRU	Chicago
	Johns Hopkins		Thomas More
			W&J

ECFC	Empire 8	IND	LL	MAC	MASCAC	NEFC	NJAC
Mount Ida	Buffalo St.	Alfred St.*	Union	Misericordia	Worcester State	Curry	So Virginia
Anna Maria	Hartwick		St. Lawrence	Wilkes	Plymouth State	Nichols	TCNJ
Norwich	SJF		RPI	Leb Valley	Westfield State	Maine Maritime	Montclair St.
Gallaudet	Utica		USMMA	Lycoming	Bridgewater St.	Salve Regina	Salisbury
Husson	Morrisville St.		Springfield	King's	Western Conn.	MIT	WPU
Castleton	Brockport St.		WPI	FDU-F	Mass-Dartmouth	Endicott	CNU
Becker	Alfred		Hobart	Widener	Mass-Maritime	Coast Guard	Frostburg St.
SUNY-MC	Ithaca		Rochester	Del Valley	Framingham St.	Western NE	Rowan
	Cortland St.			Albright	Fitchburg State		Kean
				Stevenson			Wesley

[wally_wabash]

This week's eliminations:
Wittenberg
Austin
Shenandoah
Hampden-Sydney
Morrisville State
Rhodes
Monmouth


Plenty more that are now on life support.  Elmhurst, Brockport State, Hobart, UW-Stevens Point, and Maryville specifically. 

Special note on Monmouth- they probably could have been eliminated last week or the week prior.  An MWC team hasn't been regionally ranked since Illinois College was ranked in the first ranking of 2013.  They had to be 8-0 to get there.  With the abundance of quality teams in the West region (and their h2h loss to Central being problematic as well), Monmouth cannot reasonably lose a second time and be ranked.  And if they don't lose a second time, they'll win an AQ. 

We've still got 65 teams in play for those 7 at-large bids.  The regional breakdown is:
North - 12
West - 14
South - 19
East 20

[art76]

Wally, thanx for all the work - truly mind boggling.  Trying to keep it all straight is not a task for the timid.

I think you missed a team that is still a mathematical possibility for at least another week: UW River Falls, as they only have one loss to an NCAA opponent and one to an NAIA opponent. But maybe I missed another criteria you guys used earlier on that eliminated them already.

[wally_wabash]

I think River Falls falls into the cross section of teams that are either going to win their league or lose again and be out.  I don't think there's a reasonable scenario where River Falls can have that loss to Simpson (and whatever the regional committee wants to do with the non-D3 loss), a second loss in the league and be ranked high enough to be selected.   It's just going to be really, really hard for any West team to carry a non-league D3 loss and be in play.  I think Bethel is the only one in the West that we have still alive that fits that criteria. 

[Mr. Ypsi]

wally, a minor quibble - I'm not sure Bellhaven and McMurry should even be on your chart, since their ineligibility for the postseason is WHY the ASC is in Pool B.  And I think the same thing is true of Alfred State.  But since none of those teams would be going anywhere near the postseason anyway ...

BTW (and I know this is the C board, not the B) for this year is it 6 Cs and 1 B?

[wally_wabash]

Yes 1 B and 6 Cs this year.

Noted RE: the reclassifying ASC teams. No harm, no foul since they aren't in play even if they were eligible. 

[wally_wabash]

Spotlighted Pool B/C games for this weekend.  Not all of these teams are still alive, but generally pose a legitimate threat to those teams that are still alive.  I've bolded the teams here still alive in the Eliminator Table.

Elmhurst @ North Park
Adrian @ Albion
Denison @ Wittenberg
Gustavus Adolphus @ St. John's
UW-Stevens Point @ UW-Oshkosh
Muhlenberg @ Gettysburg
Hampden-Sydney @ Emory & Henry
Guilford @ Bridgewater
Hendrix @ Berry
Chicago @ Rhodes
Austin @ Trinity(TX)
Huntingdon @ LaGrange
Brockport State @ Ithaca
Alfred @ Cortland State
Kean @ Wesley
Pacific Lutheran @ Whitworth (dc1 West Coast Special™)

[desertcat1]

Spotlighted Pool B/C games for this weekend.  Not all of these teams are still alive, but generally pose a legitimate threat to those teams that are still alive.  I've bolded the teams here still alive in the Eliminator Table.

Elmhurst @ North Park
Adrian @ Albion
Denison @ Wittenberg
Gustavus Adolphus @ St. John's
UW-Stevens Point @ UW-Oshkosh
Muhlenberg @ Gettysburg
Hampden-Sydney @ Emory & Henry
Guilford @ Bridgewater
Hendrix @ Berry
Chicago @ Rhodes
Austin @ Trinity(TX)
Huntingdon @ LaGrange
Brockport State @ Ithaca
Alfred @ Cortland State
Kean @ Wesley
Pacific Lutheran @ Whitworth (dc1 West Coast Special™)

u da man wally    thanks

[wally_wabash]

FYI gang, I think I'm targeting my first Pool B/C projection for after the Week 8 games.  Will give everybody 7 games in.  I can do one after this week's games if people want, but I thought I'd go with the Eliminator for one more week before getting into at large projections.  Let's do this: RT for a week 7 projection, FAV for week 8.  Did I do that right? 

[Ralph Turner]

Save your energy unless you have a boatload of free time and cannot sleep some night.

As we (CruFootball, Gray Fox and I) were going thru the games for the ASC pick'em contest, we found these national games of interest.  Almost everyone eliminates one of the teams.

Whitworth at Linfield         
Rowan at Wesley                             
UW Oshkosh at UW Platteville         
North Central at Wheaton                       
W&J at Case Western Reserve             
Bethel at St. Thomas                         
Del Val and Albright         
Frank Marshall  and Moravian.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Save your energy unless you have a boatload of free time and cannot sleep some night.

As we (CruFootball, Gray Fox and I) were going thru the games for the ASC pick'em contest, we found these national games of interest.  Almost everyone eliminates one of the teams.

Whitworth at Linfield         
Rowan at Wesley                             
UW Oshkosh at UW Platteville         
North Central at Wheaton                       
W&J at Case Western Reserve             
Bethel at St. Thomas                         
Del Val and Albright         
Frank Marshall  and Moravian.

For Pool C, NCC is already eliminated (since unless they get a third loss they will be Pool A).  And Wheaton would not be eliminated with their first loss.

[USee]

And the game is in Naperville, not Wheaton

[Mr. Ypsi]

And the game is in Naperville, not Wheaton

Good catch - I missed that.  But shouldn't that be 'Napperville'?

[Ralph Turner]

And the game is in Naperville, not Wheaton

Thanks and +1!