Pool C -- 2015

Started by wally_wabash, September 29, 2015, 08:59:25 PM

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Ralph Turner

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 13, 2015, 04:41:12 PM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 13, 2015, 04:19:02 PM
Quote from: Schwami on September 30, 2015, 11:01:16 AM
Excellent work!

One suggestion: consider placing an asterisk by the teams that can also get in through Pool B.  If I am reading the handbook correctly, this would be the three independents (Finlandia, Maranatha, and Alfred State), and the teams in the ASC and SCAC.  Currently there are 5 teams remaining out of this Pool B bunch (in no particular order):

1. UMHB
2. H-SC
3. Austin
4. TLU
5. Trinity
Can you share the URL to the 2015 D-3 Football Handbook?

Thanks.

Ralph-

Here you go.
Thanks, Wally.  I count 12 Pool B schools.

Nebraska Wesleyan is Independent and not declaring this year.

wally_wabash

#61
The Week 6 update to the B/C Eliminator table.  Here is a peek at the logic we are trying to apply as we go through this week to week:

1. Two-loss teams can make the tournament as Pool Cs
2. Three-loss teams never have
3. The last-time we had a conference get three teams in, the 3rd best team was the Pool A.

And with those three main points in mind:

- Three loss teams are automatically out.
- Two-loss teams are still in, unless those teams are already behind a pair of zero or one-loss teams in their own conference.  I think we're pretty close to adhering to this absolutely, but there may be a case here and there where we've knocked out a two-loss team that isn't going accumulate other useful criteria such as high SOS or wins vs. RROs. 

Thanks again to ExTartanPlayer and Bombers798891 for working through this with me.  Teams that we believe are out of at-large contention are in red, teams that I believe are still alive are in green, and Pool B eligible teams are marked with an asterisk(*), all as of Week 6 results.  And this week I've italicized teams that were newly eliminated.



   CCIW      HCAC      MIAA      NACC      NCAC      OAC   
   Carthage      Earlham      Hope      Cocnordia(Wis)      Allegheny      Muskingum   
   Augustana      Hanover      Alma      Aurora      Hiram      Marietta   
   North Park      Bluffton      Kalamazoo      Wis Lutheran      Wooster      Heidelberg   
   Millikin      Anderson      Adrian      Benedictine      Oberlin      Wilmington   
   North Central      Defiance      Trine      Lakeland      OWU      B-W   
   Elmhurst      MSJ      Olivet      CUC      Kenyon      Otterbein   
   Wheaton      Manchester      Albion      Rockford      Witt      Capital   
   IWU      Franklin                  Denison      ONU   
         RHIT                  Wabash      Mount Union   
                           DePauw      John Carroll   



   IIAC      IND      MIAC      MWC      NWC      SCIAC      UMAC      WIAC   
   BVC      Finlandia*      St. Olaf      Lawrence      L&C      Redlands      IWC      Eau Claire   
   Dubuque      Maranatha*      Carleton      Macalester      Willamette      Chapman      Martin Luther      River Falls   
   Loras            Hamline      Carroll      PLU      Whittier      Greenville      La Crosse   
   Coe            Augsburg      Ripon      UPS      P-PC      Crown      Stout   
   Simpson            C-MC      Beloit      Pacific      CMS      MacMurray      SP   
   Luther            St. John's      Grinnell      George Fox      Laverne      Eureka      Oshkosh   
   Central            Bethel      Lake Forest      Whitworth      Occidental      Minn-Morris      Platteville   
   Wartburg            St. Thomas      IC      Linfield      Cal Lutheran      SSC      Whitewater   
               Gustavus Adolphus      Cornell                  Westminster         
                     Knox                  Northwestern         
                     Monmouth                           
                     St. Norbert                           



   ASC      CC      ODAC      PAC      SAA      SCAC      USAC   
   LC*      McDaniel      Randolph-Macon      Grove City      Sewanee      Southwestern*      Averett   
   Bellhaven*      Juniata      Catholic      Thiel      Millsaps      Austin*      Ferrum   
   HPU*      Dickinson      E&H      Waynesburg      Hendrix      TLU*      NCWC   
   SRSU*      Ursinus      Bridgewater      CMU      Rhodes      Trinity*      LaGrange   
   McMurry*      Susquehenna      H-SC      Bethany      WashU            Greensboro   
   ETBU*      Muhlenberg      W&L      St. Vincent      B-SC            Huntingdon   
   UMHB*      Moravian      Shenandoah      Westminster      Centre            Methodist   
   H-SU*      Gettysburg      Guilford      Geneva      Berry            Maryville   
         F&M            CWRU      Chicago               
         Johns Hopkins            Thomas More                     
                     W&J                     



   ECFC      Empire 8      IND      LL      MAC      MASCAC      NEFC      NJAC   
   Mount Ida      Buffalo St.      Alfred St.*      Union      Misericordia      Worcester State      Curry      So Virginia   
   Anna Maria      Hartwick            St. Lawrence      Wilkes      Plymouth State      Nichols      TCNJ   
   Norwich      SJF            RPI      Leb Valley      Westfield State      Maine Maritime      Montclair St.   
   Gallaudet      Utica            USMMA      Lycoming      Bridgewater St.      Salve Regina      Salisbury   
   Husson      Morrisville St.            Springfield      King's      Western Conn.      MIT      WPU   
   Castleton      Brockport St.            WPI      FDU-F      Mass-Dartmouth      Endicott      CNU   
   Becker      Alfred            Hobart      Widener      Mass-Maritime      Coast Guard      Frostburg St.   
   SUNY-MC      Ithaca            Rochester      Del Valley      Framingham St.      Western NE      Rowan   
         Cortland St.                  Albright      Fitchburg State            Kean   
                           Stevenson                  Wesley   
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

wally_wabash

This week's eliminations:
Wittenberg
Austin
Shenandoah
Hampden-Sydney
Morrisville State
Rhodes
Monmouth


Plenty more that are now on life support.  Elmhurst, Brockport State, Hobart, UW-Stevens Point, and Maryville specifically. 

Special note on Monmouth- they probably could have been eliminated last week or the week prior.  An MWC team hasn't been regionally ranked since Illinois College was ranked in the first ranking of 2013.  They had to be 8-0 to get there.  With the abundance of quality teams in the West region (and their h2h loss to Central being problematic as well), Monmouth cannot reasonably lose a second time and be ranked.  And if they don't lose a second time, they'll win an AQ. 

We've still got 65 teams in play for those 7 at-large bids.  The regional breakdown is:
North - 12
West - 14
South - 19
East 20
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

art76

Wally, thanx for all the work - truly mind boggling.  Trying to keep it all straight is not a task for the timid.

I think you missed a team that is still a mathematical possibility for at least another week: UW River Falls, as they only have one loss to an NCAA opponent and one to an NAIA opponent. But maybe I missed another criteria you guys used earlier on that eliminated them already.
You don't have a soul. You are a soul.
You have a body. - C.S. Lewis

wally_wabash

I think River Falls falls into the cross section of teams that are either going to win their league or lose again and be out.  I don't think there's a reasonable scenario where River Falls can have that loss to Simpson (and whatever the regional committee wants to do with the non-D3 loss), a second loss in the league and be ranked high enough to be selected.   It's just going to be really, really hard for any West team to carry a non-league D3 loss and be in play.  I think Bethel is the only one in the West that we have still alive that fits that criteria. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

Mr. Ypsi

wally, a minor quibble - I'm not sure Bellhaven and McMurry should even be on your chart, since their ineligibility for the postseason is WHY the ASC is in Pool B.  And I think the same thing is true of Alfred State.  But since none of those teams would be going anywhere near the postseason anyway ...

BTW (and I know this is the C board, not the B) for this year is it 6 Cs and 1 B?

wally_wabash

Yes 1 B and 6 Cs this year.

Noted RE: the reclassifying ASC teams. No harm, no foul since they aren't in play even if they were eligible.  :)
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

wally_wabash

Spotlighted Pool B/C games for this weekend.  Not all of these teams are still alive, but generally pose a legitimate threat to those teams that are still alive.  I've bolded the teams here still alive in the Eliminator Table.

Elmhurst @ North Park
Adrian @ Albion
Denison @ Wittenberg
Gustavus Adolphus @ St. John's
UW-Stevens Point @ UW-Oshkosh
Muhlenberg @ Gettysburg
Hampden-Sydney @ Emory & Henry
Guilford @ Bridgewater
Hendrix @ Berry
Chicago @ Rhodes
Austin @ Trinity(TX)
Huntingdon @ LaGrange
Brockport State @ Ithaca
Alfred @ Cortland State
Kean @ Wesley
Pacific Lutheran @ Whitworth (dc1 West Coast Specialâ„¢)
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

desertcat1

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 15, 2015, 11:30:36 AM
Spotlighted Pool B/C games for this weekend.  Not all of these teams are still alive, but generally pose a legitimate threat to those teams that are still alive.  I've bolded the teams here still alive in the Eliminator Table.

Elmhurst @ North Park
Adrian @ Albion
Denison @ Wittenberg
Gustavus Adolphus @ St. John's
UW-Stevens Point @ UW-Oshkosh
Muhlenberg @ Gettysburg
Hampden-Sydney @ Emory & Henry
Guilford @ Bridgewater
Hendrix @ Berry
Chicago @ Rhodes
Austin @ Trinity(TX)
Huntingdon @ LaGrange
Brockport State @ Ithaca
Alfred @ Cortland State
Kean @ Wesley
Pacific Lutheran @ Whitworth (dc1 West Coast Specialâ„¢) 8-)

u da man wally  :-*  thanks :)
" If you are going to be a bear, be a Grizzly"

C.W. Smith

wally_wabash

FYI gang, I think I'm targeting my first Pool B/C projection for after the Week 8 games.  Will give everybody 7 games in.  I can do one after this week's games if people want, but I thought I'd go with the Eliminator for one more week before getting into at large projections.  Let's do this: RT for a week 7 projection, FAV for week 8.  Did I do that right? 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

Ralph Turner

#70
Save your energy unless you have a boatload of free time and cannot sleep some night.

As we (CruFootball, Gray Fox and I) were going thru the games for the ASC pick'em contest, we found these national games of interest.  Almost everyone eliminates one of the teams.

Whitworth at Linfield         
Rowan at Wesley                             
UW Oshkosh at UW Platteville         
North Central at Wheaton                       
W&J at Case Western Reserve             
Bethel at St. Thomas                         
Del Val and Albright         
Frank Marshall  and Moravian.

Mr. Ypsi

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 18, 2015, 08:11:42 PM
Save your energy unless you have a boatload of free time and cannot sleep some night.

As we (CruFootball, Gray Fox and I) were going thru the games for the ASC pick'em contest, we found these national games of interest.  Almost everyone eliminates one of the teams.

Whitworth at Linfield         
Rowan at Wesley                             
UW Oshkosh at UW Platteville         
North Central at Wheaton                       
W&J at Case Western Reserve             
Bethel at St. Thomas                         
Del Val and Albright         
Frank Marshall  and Moravian.

For Pool C, NCC is already eliminated (since unless they get a third loss they will be Pool A).  And Wheaton would not be eliminated with their first loss.

USee

And the game is in Naperville, not Wheaton

Mr. Ypsi

Quote from: USee on October 18, 2015, 09:46:03 PM
And the game is in Naperville, not Wheaton

Good catch - I missed that.  But shouldn't that be 'Napperville'? ;D

Ralph Turner

Quote from: USee on October 18, 2015, 09:46:03 PM
And the game is in Naperville, not Wheaton
Thanks and +1!