Pool C -- 2015

[art76]

It would be a travesty/injustice if a 9-1 MHB team were to be excluded from the play-offs.

Right now UMHB's SOS is 0.476 and comes in at 158th on the national SOS rankings. That ranking will certainly go down next week as they pick up a game against 1-7 Howard Payne and won't be helped much when they play East Texas Baptist in week 11.  They will have a (1-1) record against RROs.


As a point of comparison, I've tried to reconstruct the 2014 Pool B/C resumes.  RRO numbers are
Pool B
Wesley (5-0, 2-0 vs. RRO, 0.608 SOS (#2))
Texas Lutheran (7-1, 1-1 vs. RRO, SOS 0.510 (T #95))

Pool C
John Carroll (9-1, 1-1 vs. RRO,  SOS 0.511 (T #90))
Wabash (9-1, 1-1* vs. RRO,  SOS 0.520 (T #66))
Muhlenberg (9-1, 1-1 vs. RRO, SOS 0.500 (T #120))
Delaware Valley (9-1, 0-1 vs. RRO, SOS 0.519 (T #72))
St. John Fisher (8-2, 0-1 vs. RRO, SOS  0.564 (#15))
St. Thomas (8-2, 0-2 vs. RRO, SOS 0.502 (T #114))

* not sure if Hampden-Sydney was ranked in the final east rankings, they were ranked 9th in their region going into the losing game against Randolph Macon but nevertheless won the crazy ODAC AQ on a 4 way tie.

So going back to UMHB - I'd probably put a buck or two down on them getting in, but I wouldn't exactly today call it an injustice if they don't with such a horrendously low SOS.  No, the low SOS is not really their fault (A: its a long way to Texas, B: its a long way to travel for a likely shellacking).  I don't see at two loss team jumping over them, but with an 0-1 RRO and a low sos, they may be the last one loss team in.

Never mind - I now see this comparison is using last year's rankings.

[crufootball]

UMHB's non-conference games are an example of what on paper could have been decent that turned south. OWU and LAX are underperforming and Millsaps is a mess. Their next two games may not help - Howard Payne is terrible and ETBU will probably finish 6-4.

Adding to that point, its not like UMHB is scheduling those teams out of convenience either. Ohio Wesleyan is over 1,000 miles away and while LAX and Milsaps were at home this year we traveled there last year and one was a plane trip and the other was a very long bus trip.

True, but wasn't Whitewater and Oshkosh looking for games since they both scheduled Finlandia?   I won't be insulted if MHB doesn't make it.  There are a lot of good teams out there with great wins.

Well I cannot say whether or not UMHB tried to schedule either of those games but we have scheduled teams such as UW-W, Wesley, Redlands, CNU, Kean, and TLU for our non-conference games and at that time all of those teams were in the playoff discussion when we scheduled the game.

I can't argue with the fact that the SOS number for UMHB doesn't look good and or give a quantifiable better way to judge teams other than SOS but as smedindy said you can't say we don't try.

[wally_wabash]

I wouldn't say that UMHB is definitely out or definitely in at this point.  They're closer to in, IMO.  The problem here is that right this second, it is a crowded house trying to get those at-large spots and UMHB picked a bad year to take a loss.  Most years, this isn't going to be an issue for them.   But, there are also two weeks of games left and a lot of stuff that we don't see happening will happen (CNU/Salisbury, anyone?).  I think the herd will thin just enough that this won't be a big issue in two weeks. 

What would be fun is if UMHB was ranked something like 6th this week behind TMC and CWRU and maybe even Berry and we can get a full week of outrage and hand wringing.  That'd just be fun for spectators. 

[crufootball]

I wouldn't say that UMHB is definitely out or definitely in at this point.  They're closer to in, IMO.  The problem here is that right this second, it is a crowded house trying to get those at-large spots and UMHB picked a bad year to take a loss.  Most years, this isn't going to be an issue for them.   But, there are also two weeks of games left and a lot of stuff that we don't see happening will happen (CNU/Salisbury, anyone?).  I think the herd will thin just enough that this won't be a big issue in two weeks. 

What would be fun is if UMHB was ranked something like 6th this week behind TMC and CWRU and maybe even Berry and we can get a full week of outrage and hand wringing.  That'd just be fun for spectators.

At this point do the regional rankings that compare HSU and UMHB really matter. If UMHB gets in, is there anyway they aren't playing HSU in Abilene?

[desertcat1]

I wouldn't say that UMHB is definitely out or definitely in at this point.  They're closer to in, IMO.  The problem here is that right this second, it is a crowded house trying to get those at-large spots and UMHB picked a bad year to take a loss.  Most years, this isn't going to be an issue for them.   But, there are also two weeks of games left and a lot of stuff that we don't see happening will happen (CNU/Salisbury, anyone?).  I think the herd will thin just enough that this won't be a big issue in two weeks. 

What would be fun is if UMHB was ranked something like 6th this week behind TMC and CWRU and maybe even Berry and we can get a full week of outrage and hand wringing.  That'd just be fun for spectators.

At this point do the regional rankings that compare HSU and UMHB really matter. If UMHB gets in, is there anyway they aren't playing HSU in Abilene?

Yes just two,    slim and none.  "island"   

[wally_wabash]

I wouldn't say that UMHB is definitely out or definitely in at this point.  They're closer to in, IMO.  The problem here is that right this second, it is a crowded house trying to get those at-large spots and UMHB picked a bad year to take a loss.  Most years, this isn't going to be an issue for them.   But, there are also two weeks of games left and a lot of stuff that we don't see happening will happen (CNU/Salisbury, anyone?).  I think the herd will thin just enough that this won't be a big issue in two weeks. 

What would be fun is if UMHB was ranked something like 6th this week behind TMC and CWRU and maybe even Berry and we can get a full week of outrage and hand wringing.  That'd just be fun for spectators.

At this point do the regional rankings that compare HSU and UMHB really matter. If UMHB gets in, is there anyway they aren't playing HSU in Abilene?

Super highly unlikely.  It just kind of depends on who all gets in, but right now it looks like the NWC/SCIAC pairing is clean (as in, there won't be any at-large teams from those leagues), Berry has a few options that they can drive to, and Husson looks like they'll have a couple of options also.  They might be able to do this first round with just the one west coast flight. 

But you're not really worried about the rankings w/ respect to Hardin-Simmons.  That relationship is carved in stone at this point.  It's the rest of the South that matters and whether or not any other at-large team could sneak up above UMHB.  I don't think that'll happen, but we've seen some funky things happen in these rankings, particularly the South's rankings. 

[jknezek]

Berry should pair with the USASAC winner. Either Huntingdon or Maryville are well inside 500 miles. That actually makes for reasonable first round game. The only hiccup is that it would be a rematch with Maryville of week 1. I think Berry has come a long way since then, Maryville seems very week to week. M'ville and Huntingdon play this week for the USASAC marble. Can't imagine the loser has a shot at anything though a 2 loss M'Ville would be 1-1 vs RRO if Berry and Huntingdon win out. SOS will probably be awful...

[Pat Coleman]

Berry can also get to likely playoff teams Thomas More, Franklin or Washington & Lee.

[jknezek]

Berry can also get to likely playoff teams Thomas More, Franklin or Washington & Lee.

Yes. But Huntingdon can't.... Lot of football left.

[Andy Jamison - Walla Walla Wildcat]

From a selfish standpoint I'd much rather see MHB stay home in the playoffs as they will most likely be somewhere in Linfield's side of the bracket along with UWW, UWO, St Thomas, St Johns, Hardin Simmons, etc.  Any team that replaces them will be nowhere as good...

But, MHB has earned the respect of getting into the playoffs by how they have done in prior years.  They deserve to go over any other 9-1 team outside of UWW.  SOS be damned...

[minni]

From a selfish standpoint I'd much rather see MHB stay home in the playoffs as they will most likely be somewhere in Linfield's side of the bracket along with UWW, UWO, St Thomas, St Johns, Hardin Simmons, etc.  Any team that replaces them will be nowhere as good...

But, MHB has earned the respect of getting into the playoffs by how they have done in prior years.  They deserve to go over any other 9-1 team outside of UWW.  SOS be damned...

So you are saying based on the "past" MHB should receive a bid?  You're not basing it on the current year performance?

[Andy Jamison - Walla Walla Wildcat]

Yes.

A 9-1 MHB team is most likely a true Top 8 caliber team this season. Their program has shown an ability to compete with the top teams of D3 over the past decade. I don't see any reason why this year's team is not at that same level.

What other Pool C candidates would likely beat MHB? The list is short -UWW and maybe St John's. Head to head MHB is going to beat - Thomas More, John's Hopkins, and everyone ranked below them in the Top 25.

MHB has proven that they are a Top 5 program and as such they deserve a spot in the playoffs at 9-1.

[crufootball]

From a selfish standpoint I'd much rather see MHB stay home in the playoffs as they will most likely be somewhere in Linfield's side of the bracket along with UWW, UWO, St Thomas, St Johns, Hardin Simmons, etc.  Any team that replaces them will be nowhere as good...

But, MHB has earned the respect of getting into the playoffs by how they have done in prior years.  They deserve to go over any other 9-1 team outside of UWW.  SOS be damned...

So you are saying based on the "past" MHB should receive a bid?  You're not basing it on the current year performance?

Is that much worse than potentially keeping out a team that lost to a very good opponent on the road by 3 just because their opponents didn't have a good record?

[AO]

Yes.

A 9-1 MHB team is most likely a true Top 8 caliber team this season. Their program has shown an ability to compete with the top teams of D3 over the past decade. I don't see any reason why this year's team is not at that same level.

What other Pool C candidates would likely beat MHB? The list is short -UWW and maybe St John's. Head to head MHB is going to beat - Thomas More, John's Hopkins, and everyone ranked below them in the Top 25.

MHB has proven that they are a Top 5 program and as such they deserve a spot in the playoffs at 9-1.

I'm not sure they'd be favored by much at Platteville or Concordia. 

[wally_wabash]

What other Pool C candidates would likely beat MHB? The list is short -UWW and maybe St John's. Head to head MHB is going to beat - Thomas More, John's Hopkins, and everyone ranked below them in the Top 25.

I think what we learned on Saturday is that we don't really know who in the top 25 UMHB is going to beat.  Except for TLU.  We know they can beat TLU.