Pool C -- 2015

[wally_wabash]

This week's eliminations:
DePauw
Concordia-Moorhead
St. Norbert
Trinity(TX)
Cortland State
Delaware Valley
Framingham State
Western New England
Salisbury
Frostburg State

So, not all of these teams lost this week.  What gives?  What gives is that we're running out of time and as the set of teams that we know are going to be in the at-large conversation crystallizes, it becomes apparent that some of these teams cannot put together profiles that will get them in.  DePauw, St. Norbert, Cortland State, Delaware Valley, Framingham State, and Western NE are all in AQ or out situations.  St. Norbert is just in a bad region for them, Framingham and Western NE can't absorb a loss this late in the game and want to be invited without any quality wins.  Salisbury is now in a beat Wesley or take a third loss scenario, so they go.  Concordia-Moorhead and Trinity are both victims of having losses to teams that will be ranked ahead of them, and you just can't be 3rd or 4th in line and make it in with multiple losses and without quality wins. 

That leaves 36 teams in play for those 7 at-large bids.  The regional breakdown is:
North - 9
West - 9
South - 13
East - 5

[ExTartanPlayer]

For all the fretting on the last couple of pages about the horrible East teams getting Pool C bids, y'all can probably relax.  Wally's table here shows that it's very, very unlikely we'll be having more than one really viable C candidate from the East.  Wesley is presumably going to win the NJAC.  The RR's are going to be a mess, so it's possible that Alfred and/or Rowan could be high enough to get into the discussion, but they also might be left off altogether.  That leaves the Albright-Stevenson winner as the only East team who looks like much of a threat to end up in the Pool C discussion. 

As wally has noted a few times, the North is going to be short on strong Pool C candidates as well.  Assuming that Wabash wins the NCAC and Mount wins the OAC, you'll have a couple of "meh" 8-2 teams from the OAC and maybe 9-1 RHIT and/or MIAA runner-up (is there any official word on the MIAA tiebreaker?), none of which are that inspiring.  The IWU-Wheaton result this weekend will give us another useful piece of info here...but let's just say that the North is probably short on really strong C candidates.

The West will be fine, folks.  You'll get your (deserved) Pool C bids.

[wally_wabash]

Re: the MIAA tiebreak

The word in Snap Judgements and on the ATN pod (content!) is that the three way tiebreak breaks for Albion.  I almost knocked Albion out, but if Olivet loses again, Trine can win the AQ and leave Albion at-large at 9-1, which keeps them on the fringe of the conversation, particularly given what is possible with the rest of the North's at-large candidates. 

[MonroviaCat]

And Wally you are 100% correct that my problem is largely geographic and $$$.  Kind of makes me wish for the NAIA days when schools had to pay to host games.

That's one way to thin the herd.

I suspect that the NAIA would welcome Linfield back if you want to lead the charge.

If only we'd "man-up" and play them! 
http://helenair.com/sports/college/carroll-college/football/article_aeb96d5f-9202-5017-aa21-9911f73ecd15.html

[Ralph Turner]

And Wally you are 100% correct that my problem is largely geographic and $$$.  Kind of makes me wish for the NAIA days when schools had to pay to host games.

That's one way to thin the herd.

I suspect that the NAIA would welcome Linfield back if you want to lead the charge.

If only we'd "man-up" and play them! 
http://helenair.com/sports/college/carroll-college/football/article_aeb96d5f-9202-5017-aa21-9911f73ecd15.html

I think I have a solution. An NWC team will play any Frontier Conference team, provided, the Frontier Conference team leaves those players getting athletic scholarships home.

[wabndy]

By the time the semi's come around teams from the West and MHB are much more bloodied and beaten up than teams from MUC or Wesley's bracket.  Adding Pool C teams from conferences that aren't competitive in the playoffs simply perpetuates the cycle. 

Hasn't bothered UWW now, has it?

Sure hasn't!  Can you imagine how dominant they'd have been given Wesley or MUC brackets over the past few years...Scary to think!

You do realize the last time Whitewater lost a playoff game was in 2008.  In the Stagg Bowl.  Against Mount Union.  You also realize that they've won 5 national championships since then.  You also realize they played in the three stagg bowls before that.  All against Mount Union. Winning 1 out of the three.  You also realize that they have basically dominated the 32 team playoff era and before 2005 they were a fair to middling 7-3, 5-5 WIAC team whose last playoff appearance before that was in 1997 when we had a 16 team bracket. Since you do realize that - please explain how they were supposed to be any more dominant in the playoffs these past few years than they already were.

[AO]

By the time the semi's come around teams from the West and MHB are much more bloodied and beaten up than teams from MUC or Wesley's bracket.  Adding Pool C teams from conferences that aren't competitive in the playoffs simply perpetuates the cycle. 

Hasn't bothered UWW now, has it?

Sure hasn't!  Can you imagine how dominant they'd have been given Wesley or MUC brackets over the past few years...Scary to think!

You do realize the last time Whitewater lost a playoff game was in 2008.  In the Stagg Bowl.  Against Mount Union.  You also realize that they've won 5 national championships since then.  You also realize they played in the three stagg bowls before that.  All against Mount Union. Winning 1 out of the three.  You also realize that they have basically dominated the 32 team playoff era and before 2005 they were a fair to middling 7-3, 5-5 WIAC team whose last playoff appearance before that was in 1997 when we had a 16 team bracket. Since you do realize that - please explain how they were supposed to be any more dominant in the playoffs these past few years than they already were.

The last two years Whitewater had more trouble in the quarters and semis than the title game against Mount.  The implication there is that Mount might not have made it through the same gauntlet.

[art76]

This week's eliminations:
DePauw
Concordia-Moorhead
St. Norbert
Trinity(TX)
Cortland State
Delaware Valley
Framingham State
Western New England
Salisbury
Frostburg State

So, not all of these teams lost this week.  What gives?  What gives is that we're running out of time and as the set of teams that we know are going to be in the at-large conversation crystallizes, it becomes apparent that some of these teams cannot put together profiles that will get them in.  DePauw, St. Norbert, Cortland State, Delaware Valley, Framingham State, and Western NE are all in AQ or out situations.  St. Norbert is just in a bad region for them, Framingham and Western NE can't absorb a loss this late in the game and want to be invited without any quality wins.  Salisbury is now in a beat Wesley or take a third loss scenario, so they go.  Concordia-Moorhead and Trinity are both victims of having losses to teams that will be ranked ahead of them, and you just can't be 3rd or 4th in line and make it in with multiple losses and without quality wins. 

That leaves 36 teams in play for those 7 at-large bids.  The regional breakdown is:
North - 9
West - 9
South - 13
East - 5

I find it interesting that Concordia Moorhead is out and Gustavus is still in when they have the same record. Bethel beat Gustavus last week and lost to Concordia by 3 earlier in the season. It could happen that Gustavus could beat Concordia this week, but I don't see them getting by St. Thomas in the final week of the season. Concordia gets its bye in the last week of the season this year. Looking forward, if I understand you correctly, you're basically saying the MIAC has only one AQ and maybe one Pool C team in the mix at this point in the year?

[wally_wabash]

I find it interesting that Concordia Moorhead is out and Gustavus is still in when they have the same record. Bethel beat Gustavus last week and lost to Concordia by 3 earlier in the season. It could happen that Gustavus could beat Concordia this week, but I don't see them getting by St. Thomas in the final week of the season. Concordia gets its bye in the last week of the season this year. Looking forward, if I understand you correctly, you're basically saying the MIAC has only one AQ and maybe one Pool C team in the mix at this point in the year?

Concordia-Moorhead is out because they can't do anything at this point to boost their profile.  We know they're behind St. John's and St. Thomas (whichever lands in the at-large pool), we know they have a poor SOS (to be helped a little bit by GAC, but not a ton), and we know that if they do beat GAC, GAC won't be ranked.  Concordia-Moorhead just doesn't have a profile that works as a multi-loss team.  I left GAC in because they can get a really nice win against St. Thomas here at the end of the year, which is honestly still probably not enough to get them in, but it would be a nice addition to their profile that keeps them in the conversation, even if on the fringe. 

[USee]

How much does a single game influence SOS? Specifically, how will Wheaton's SOS change after playing IWU this saturday? presumably it will be higher but how big is the move? After they played NCC they went from #170 to somewhere around #158 or so.

[wally_wabash]

How much does a single game influence SOS? Specifically, how will Wheaton's SOS change after playing IWU this saturday? presumably it will be higher but how big is the move? After they played NCC they went from #170 to somewhere around #158 or so.

Quick and dirty- ignoring results from Wheaton's other opponents and IWU's OOWP contribution to Wheaton's math:

- Wheaton has an OWP of .4107 (23-33 is the aggregate record of Wheaton's opponents excluding games vs. Wheaton)
- IWU adds a 7-1 record to that bringing the OWP up to 30-34 or 0.4688
- OWP is 2/3 of the SOS, so the improvement in OWP here is 2/3*(0.4688) - 2/3*(.4107) = 0.039

Doesn't seem like much, does it?  That 0.039 moves Wheaton from today's SOS of 0.471 up to an estimated SOS of 0.510, which is about 50 spots higher on the list.  Now that's an estimate- there will be other contributions like results from Wheaton's non-league opponents and IWU's OOWP contribution (which I think will actually shave off a couple of points.  But Wheaton's SOS looks like it will go from pretty poor to ok this week.  Wheaton's SOS just won't be great this year (Eau Claire is a drag), but it'll be somewhere in the middle of the pack when all is said and done. 

[USee]

anything with a .5 handle on it makes me feel much better than anything with a .4 handle. That seems to be a cut-off of sorts.

[MonroviaCat]

Regional rankings are up!  http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/d3/regional-rankings

[ExTartanPlayer]

Regional rankings are up!  http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/d3/regional-rankings

+K

(everyone shuts their office door and opens rankings)

[ExTartanPlayer]

#hottakes

East: not much to argue with here.  The Albright/Stevenson winner will likely be the first Pool C team to the board.

North: Wheaton over Wabash!  Big news if the Wheaties win re: who has a good chance to host multiple rounds.  IWU over Franklin (for now) seems like good news for the Wheaties as well - means that IWU probably will not fall out entirely at 8-2.

*Oh, also: no North Central. 

South: Moravian shows up as a Pool C darkhorse here.  I don't know if I expected them to appear at all, much less to appear that high on the RR's.

West: the biggest surprise on the entire board, IMO, is Whitworth ranked ahead of Platteville (and Wartburg 9th!).  The West RR's tell us a couple of things:

1) I think we're likely to get at least 2 and possibly as many as 4 or 5 Pool C bids from the West.

2) UWP is going to be mighty salty if they end up staying home because Whitworth blocked them on the board while a team like Albright or Moravian went in.

3) Wartburg is in really, really big trouble.  I think the committee is right to rank them behind Dubuque but that means Wartburg is currently fifth on the list of Pool C candidates from the West.