Pool C -- 2015

[wally_wabash]

First projection with the official rankings.  I'm anxious to see how this goes.  A brief primer on the process:
- In 2015 we have 25 Automatic Qualifiers (Pool A), which are determined by each qualifying conference.  Those champions qualify, if there are funky ties, the conferences are responsible for breaking those multi-team ties and they all do it differently.  I'm sure we'll see this one or two places this year. 
- We have just one Pool B bid, which comes from teams that don't play in conferences that qualify for Pool A (this year those leagues are the ASC and the SCAC) and Independents. 
- That leaves us with 6 extra bids for Pool C, which is everybody who didn't make the Pool A and B cuts. 
The process is as follows:
- The automatic qualifiers are placed first and removed from further consideration...they're already in, after all. 
- The top ranked team eligible for Pool B (based on the NCAA's regional rankings) from each region will be considered together.  The criteria will be applied and discussed and the committee will vote on those four teams and the top vote getter goes in.  Now, I've given you a bit of an okie-doke here, because only the South Region has Pool B eligible teams.  I suppose that Finlandia is eligible from the North, but we can safely assume that they aren't making it. 
- With the Pool B bid awarded, we move on to Pool C, using the same process: top ranked team from each region is considered, one of those four is selected, and the selected team is replaced on the tableau by the next ranked team from that region. 


First, my projected Pool A bids through Week 9, teams that have clinched are bolded:

League	Team
CC	Johns Hopkins
CCIW	Wheaton
ECFC	Husson
Empire 8	Cortland State
HCAC	Franklin
IIAC	Dubuque
LL	St. Lawrence
MAC	Delaware Valley
MASCAC	Framingham State
MIAA	Albion
MIAC	St. Thomas
MWC	St. Norbert
NACC	Lakeland
NCAC	Wabash
NEFC	Western NE
NJAC	Wesley
NWC	Linfield
OAC	Mount Union
ODAC	Washington & Lee
PAC	Thomas More
SAA	Berry
SCIAC	La Verne
UMAC	St. Scholastica
USAC	Huntingdon
WIAC	UW-Oshkosh

I think just one change in the Pool A projection- Albion now appears to be in control of the MIAA.  Otherwise, the same as last week.  St. Scholastica is the first team to lock up a spot in the 32.  Everybody else still has work to do. 

Now I'll take a quick break and show you what we've got left over in the regional rankings after we remove the Pool A teams:
North: Illinois Wesleyan, John Carroll, Olivet, DePauw, Rose-Hulman
South: Hardin-Simmons, Mary Hardin-Baylor, Moravian, Guilford, TLU, Maryville
East: Albright, Stevenson, Alfred, RPI
West: UW-Whitewater, St. John's Whitworth, UW-Platteville, Wartburg

Rankings notes:
- The West gave us a tie with St. John's and Whitworth.  I'm going to break that tie by ranking St. John's ahead of Whitworth, because that's pretty much how that should be as Whitworth has no criteria advantage over St. John's.  The tie is silly. 
- Albright and Stevenson are going to play this week and the loser will be out.  Because we know this, if Albright goes in, I'm going to skip down to Alfred.  IF the MAC team goes in.  I'm not sure they will at this point.  Doesn't look awesome on the surface. 

Pool B (1 bid)
The bid goes to top ranked Hardin-Simmons (6-0, 0.561 SOS, 2-0 vs. RROs).  This is a slam dunk to go to the top ranked South team.  Not really a lot more to talk about here.   

Pool C (6 bids)
Round 1:
N: Illinois Wesleyan (7-1 w/l record, 0.551 SOS, 1-0 vs. RROs)
S: Mary Hardin-Baylor (6-1, 0.476, 1-1)
E: Albright (7-1, 0.472, 0-1)
W: UW-Whitewater (5-1, 0.538, 1-1)

The first round is supposed to be easier than this.  Albright is out on this board.  No quality wins and a sub .500 SOS won't play here.  It would be easy to just say UWW, UMHB, IWU- you're all in and then move on.  Except that's not fair to the teams behind UWW in particular, so getting this order of selection right is important.  IWU has a win percentage advantage and a slight SOS advantage over UWW.  IWU has also lost to an unranked team.  UWW has defeated West 7 and lost narrowly to West 2.  IWU has beaten North 6.  UMHB lost narrow to South 1 and beat South 9.  This is hard.  As I did last week, I'm going take Whitewater here, but the giant SOS plunge they took this week makes it a difficult choice. 

Round 2:
N: Illinois Wesleyan (7-1 w/l record, 0.551 SOS, 1-0 vs. RROs)
S: Mary Hardin-Baylor (6-1, 0.476, 1-1)
E: Albright (7-1, 0.472, 0-1)
W: St. John's (7-1, 0.569, 1-1)

IWU has lost their SOS advantage to the new West participant, which is significant.  When I look at St. John's RRO results, I see a full on wipeout of West 8 and a really not great loss to West 1.  IWU has a win on North 6, but not quite the same degree of victory, and they've lost at home to an unranked team.  UMHB still lurks, but that SOS which is now 75-90 points lower than their competition really holds them down here.  Another close call, but I'm taking St. John's. 

Round 3:
N: Illinois Wesleyan (7-1 w/l record, 0.551 SOS, 1-0 vs. RROs)
S: Mary Hardin-Baylor (6-1, 0.476, 1-1)
E: Albright (7-1, 0.472, 0-1)
W: Whitworth (7-1, 0.541, 0-1)

Now we've got a pair of teams with wins over RROs and a pair of teams without.  I'm going to focus here on the teams that do have quality wins as win percentage is a push across the board.  To this point my thinking has been that IWU's SOS helps offset their unranked loss when comparing directly to UMHB.  I'll stay consistent here and make IWU the selection. 

Round 4:
N: John Carroll (7-1 w/l record, 0.442 SOS, 0-0 vs. RROs)
S: Mary Hardin-Baylor (6-1, 0.476, 1-1)
E: Albright (7-1, 0.472, 0-1)
W: Whitworth (7-1, 0.541, 0-1)

UMHB's only real competition in this round would have the mystery team from the North, but that team has poor credentials.  Frankly, UMHB blows the rest of the board away.  I would have loved to try and sift through a UMHB/UWP scenario here, but that's not where the trail led us tonight.   

Round 5:
N: John Carroll (7-1 w/l record, 0.442 SOS, 0-0 vs. RROs)
S: Moravian (7-1, 0.518, 0-1)
E: Albright (7-1, 0.472, 0-1)
W: Whitworth (7-1, 0.541, 0-1)

Win percentages are a push.  Moravian and Albright actually have a common opponent in King's.  Both teams beat King's, but Albright beat King's a little more than Moravian did.  Enough to matter?  I'm not sure.  Looking more at this now...Moravian actually scored to win in the final minute.  Albright controlled the game.  This isn't as close at the scores would indicate.  I'm kind of thinking Albright > Moravian here (and they'll get a SOS boost this week).  Do I like either of these more than Whitworth?  Whitworth's loss is a wipeout to West 3.  Albright's loss is a squeaker to East 2.  Moravian's loss is a bad one to South 2.  Albright is also going to have serious balloting capital at this point.  I think I like Albright to go in here actually. 

And, this is where I'm going to fudge on the rankings a bit and pass on Stevenson.  Their profile is the same as Albright's.  One of those teams will lose and be knocked out (the other will pick up a RRO win and be an easier selection, probably).  So we can take that Albright pick to be equivalent to MAC runner up and move on to the next east team, Alfred. 

Round 6:
N: John Carroll (7-1 w/l record, 0.442 SOS, 0-0 vs. RROs)
S: Moravian (7-1, 0.518, 0-1)
E: Alfred (6-2, 0.631, 1-1)
W: Whitworth (7-1, 0.541, 0-1)

And Alfred just stomped in with the #4 SOS in D3 and a RRO win which nobody else here has.  Is that enough?  They are carrying a loss to an Ithaca team that has gone in the tank and that's not a good look.  They've also lost narrowly to Cortland State.  Generally I would lean toward Alfred here, but last year's committee was ok with the 1-loss team with a decent SOS and 0-1 vs. RROs.  We have two of those options available, and Whitworth has the SOS advantage over Moravian.  So I'm waffling between Alfred and Whitworth...I'm going to pick Whitworth, but this is an either/or scenario really like we had in 2013 with SJF and Wabash. 

The rankings really shook things up this week.  The absence of North Central really takes away an important piece of Platteville's profile.  I think Platteville is a lock to jump Whitworth and go in if North Central finds a way into the rankings. 

[desertcat1]

nice work wally   

[MonroviaCat]

nice work wally   

Indeed.  My only question is (looking at  your 5th round of pool c), does the  margin of victory/loss in a "result vs. ranked opponent" supersede the strength of schedule?  I.E.  You took Albright over Whitworth based on them playing a ranked opponent closer while Whitworth has the (pretty significantly) higher SOS.  I'm not saying you are wrong or that it should be the other way but I'm curious about if this is how the process should (or has been) be done.

[wally_wabash]

nice work wally   

Indeed.  My only question is (looking at  your 5th round of pool c), does the  margin of victory/loss in a "result vs. ranked opponent" supersede the strength of schedule?  I.E.  You took Albright over Whitworth based on them playing a ranked opponent closer while Whitworth has the (pretty significantly) higher SOS.  I'm not saying you are wrong or that it should be the other way but I'm curious about if this is how the process should (or has been) be done.

I wouldn't say supersede as much as it's a part of the whole picture that can be looked at.  In round 5 you could easily select Whitworth instead (which would bring in Platteville, who I think would go in in the final round).  And there are a couple of other things that I have in the back of my mind at that point- the first is that we know that Whitworth's SOS is at it's high-water mark right now.  That thing is coming down over the next two weeks.  The second is that we know Albright/Stevenson are going to pick up a win that will count as an RRO (a hunch that the loser there doesn't fall out of the East's rankings, but that's not exactly a given with Salisbury, Rowan, and Frostburg State all lurking just on the outside there).  The third is that Albright/Stevenson is on the board from jump street and as much as it doesn't make sense, ballot inertia is a real thing that happens. 

Round 5 was hard because there isn't a slam dunk pick from that group of four. 

[D O.C.]

nice work wally   

Indeed. Several of you.

[Ralph Turner]

+1!
Okay, where do you Fly La Verne?  You have Whitworth at Linfield and UMHB at HSU in the first round.

[wally_wabash]

+1!
Okay, where do you Fly La Verne?  You have Whitworth at Linfield and UMHB at HSU in the first round.

You could send them anywhere really.  Cynically, they probably get sent somewhere that makes it really hard for them to get another flight in round 2.   

[Ralph Turner]

+1!
Okay, where do you Fly La Verne?  You have Whitworth at Linfield and UMHB at HSU in the first round.

You could send them anywhere really.  Cynically, they probably get sent somewhere that makes it really hard for them to get another flight in round 2.   

Ooo, cynically?  Hmmm, I thought that was the usual state of the Division.   Sorry about that... just life on an island.

BTW, just where are the "Professor and Mary Ann"?
Of course, I have La Verne no higher than a #6 or #7 in the West Region anyway.  (Above St Scholastica and maybe St Norbert)

[MonroviaCat]

+1!
Okay, where do you Fly La Verne?  You have Whitworth at Linfield and UMHB at HSU in the first round.

You could send them anywhere really.  Cynically, they probably get sent somewhere that makes it really hard for them to get another flight in round 2.   

Ooo, cynically?  Hmmm, I thought that was the usual state of the Division.   Sorry about that... just life on an island.

BTW, just where are the "Professor and Mary Ann"?
Of course, I have La Verne no higher than a #6 or #7 in the West Region anyway.  (Above St Scholastica and maybe St Norbert)

Wow--not sure if that is credit to LaVerne or superslam to the the Sts.--anyway maybe they should fly LaVerne to Linfield and and one of the St.'s to Whitworth ---sure it is 2 first round flights but then they could have Whitworth drive down to McMinnville in round 2 and save a flight that way!

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

+1!
Okay, where do you Fly La Verne?  You have Whitworth at Linfield and UMHB at HSU in the first round.

You could send them anywhere really.  Cynically, they probably get sent somewhere that makes it really hard for them to get another flight in round 2.   

Ooo, cynically?  Hmmm, I thought that was the usual state of the Division.   Sorry about that... just life on an island.

BTW, just where are the "Professor and Mary Ann"?
Of course, I have La Verne no higher than a #6 or #7 in the West Region anyway.  (Above St Scholastica and maybe St Norbert)

Wow--not sure if that is credit to LaVerne or superslam to the the Sts.--anyway maybe they should fly LaVerne to Linfield and and one of the St.'s to Whitworth ---sure it is 2 first round flights but then they could have Whitworth drive down to McMinnville in round 2 and save a flight that way!

If they were going to do 2 flights they could also do the same but La Verne to Texas instead of the NWC.

Going to the other end of the country... I think Husson can only reach W New England, Framingham St, and St Lawrence (unless I missed someone which is possible). I'm guessing unranked (based on regional rankings) Husson to #3 St Lawrence and #8 WNE to #5 Framingham with winners playing in the 2nd round?

[MonroviaCat]

+1!
Okay, where do you Fly La Verne?  You have Whitworth at Linfield and UMHB at HSU in the first round.

You could send them anywhere really.  Cynically, they probably get sent somewhere that makes it really hard for them to get another flight in round 2.   

Ooo, cynically?  Hmmm, I thought that was the usual state of the Division.   Sorry about that... just life on an island.

BTW, just where are the "Professor and Mary Ann"?
Of course, I have La Verne no higher than a #6 or #7 in the West Region anyway.  (Above St Scholastica and maybe St Norbert)

Wow--not sure if that is credit to LaVerne or superslam to the the Sts.--anyway maybe they should fly LaVerne to Linfield and and one of the St.'s to Whitworth ---sure it is 2 first round flights but then they could have Whitworth drive down to McMinnville in round 2 and save a flight that way!

If they were going to do 2 flights they could also do the same but La Verne to Texas instead of the NWC.

Going to the other end of the country... I think Husson can only reach W New England, Framingham St, and St Lawrence (unless I missed someone which is possible). I'm guessing unranked (based on regional rankings) Husson to #3 St Lawrence and #8 WNE to #5 Framingham with winners playing in the 2nd round?

Truth.  The only way they avoid a first round rematch in Oregon and Texas would be with 4 flights.....or 3 I guess--sending Texas to Oregon, Whitworth to Texas and LaVerne Elsewhere (or swap LaVerne and Whitworth)....so yeah--i guess if Whitworth actually makes the field---they drive to McMinnville and LaVerne gets shipped wherever they are needed to fill a spot.

[Ralph Turner]

+1!
Okay, where do you Fly La Verne?  You have Whitworth at Linfield and UMHB at HSU in the first round.

You could send them anywhere really.  Cynically, they probably get sent somewhere that makes it really hard for them to get another flight in round 2.   

Ooo, cynically?  Hmmm, I thought that was the usual state of the Division.   Sorry about that... just life on an island.

BTW, just where are the "Professor and Mary Ann"?
Of course, I have La Verne no higher than a #6 or #7 in the West Region anyway.  (Above St Scholastica and maybe St Norbert)

Wow--not sure if that is credit to LaVerne or superslam to the the Sts.--anyway maybe they should fly LaVerne to Linfield and and one of the St.'s to Whitworth ---sure it is 2 first round flights but then they could have Whitworth drive down to McMinnville in round 2 and save a flight that way!

If they were going to do 2 flights they could also do the same but La Verne to Texas instead of the NWC.

Going to the other end of the country... I think Husson can only reach W New England, Framingham St, and St Lawrence (unless I missed someone which is possible). I'm guessing unranked (based on regional rankings) Husson to #3 St Lawrence and #8 WNE to #5 Framingham with winners playing in the 2nd round?

Truth.   The only way they avoid a first round rematch in Oregon and Texas would be with 4 flights.....or 3 I guess--sending Texas to Oregon, Whitworth to Texas and LaVerne Elsewhere (or swap LaVerne and Whitworth)....so yeah--i guess if Whitworth actually makes the field---they drive to McMinnville and LaVerne gets shipped wherever they are needed to fill a spot.

Oregon plays Oregon. (#1 seed Linfield versus #4 or #5 seed Whitworth).

Texas plays Texas. If TMC and JHU go undefeated, then #1 HSU goes against a #4 UMHB.  The last time that an ASC team lost to another South Region (non-ASC) team other than Wesley was the 2003 ASC Tri-champ ETBU, in the snow in the second round at #1 seed Lycoming, 13-7. I just believe the ASC is that much stronger than the rest of the South Region.  The Texas Sub-bracket seems like #1-seed HSU versus #2-seed UMHB to me. 

La Verne is shipped to a high seed to avoid a possible second round flight.

I believe that we rarely see anything like a standard bracket west of the Mississippi because of geography.
We have joked about the Texas Sub-bracket with a #1 seed HSU may play a #4 seed in the first round.  The ASC has left the first round with a 1-1 record and one team to advance. 

In another part of the country, we might see UMHB meeting HSU in the round of 8. The final conference record in that bracket for the year is no worse than 5 wins and 2 losses.

The ASC is 27-18 (.600) in playoff games since 1999 in inter-conference matchups. The ASC team usually loses to a purple or a Wesley blue.

[Ralph Turner]

Midwest Conference is 3-17.
SCIAC is 2-14 and usually shipped to the NWC champ.
UMAC is 0-4.

[MonroviaCat]

+1!
Okay, where do you Fly La Verne?  You have Whitworth at Linfield and UMHB at HSU in the first round.

You could send them anywhere really.  Cynically, they probably get sent somewhere that makes it really hard for them to get another flight in round 2.   

Ooo, cynically?  Hmmm, I thought that was the usual state of the Division.   Sorry about that... just life on an island.

BTW, just where are the "Professor and Mary Ann"?
Of course, I have La Verne no higher than a #6 or #7 in the West Region anyway.  (Above St Scholastica and maybe St Norbert)

Wow--not sure if that is credit to LaVerne or superslam to the the Sts.--anyway maybe they should fly LaVerne to Linfield and and one of the St.'s to Whitworth ---sure it is 2 first round flights but then they could have Whitworth drive down to McMinnville in round 2 and save a flight that way!

If they were going to do 2 flights they could also do the same but La Verne to Texas instead of the NWC.

Going to the other end of the country... I think Husson can only reach W New England, Framingham St, and St Lawrence (unless I missed someone which is possible). I'm guessing unranked (based on regional rankings) Husson to #3 St Lawrence and #8 WNE to #5 Framingham with winners playing in the 2nd round?

Truth.   The only way they avoid a first round rematch in Oregon and Texas would be with 4 flights.....or 3 I guess--sending Texas to Oregon, Whitworth to Texas and LaVerne Elsewhere (or swap LaVerne and Whitworth)....so yeah--i guess if Whitworth actually makes the field---they drive to McMinnville and LaVerne gets shipped wherever they are needed to fill a spot.

Oregon plays Oregon. (#1 seed Linfield versus #4 or #5 seed Whitworth).

Texas plays Texas. If TMC and JHU go undefeated, then #1 HSU goes against a #4 UMHB.  The last time that an ASC team lost to another South Region (non-ASC) team other than Wesley was the 2003 ASC Tri-champ ETBU, in the snow in the second round at #1 seed Lycoming, 13-7. I just believe the ASC is that much stronger than the rest of the South Region.  The Texas Sub-bracket seems like #1-seed HSU versus #2-seed UMHB to me. 

La Verne is shipped to a high seed to avoid a possible second round flight.

I believe that we rarely see anything like a standard bracket west of the Mississippi because of geography.
We have joked about the Texas Sub-bracket with a #1 seed HSU may play a #4 seed in the first round.  The ASC has left the first round with a 1-1 record and one team to advance. 

In another part of the country, we might see UMHB meeting HSU in the round of 8. The final conference record in that bracket for the year is no worse than 5 wins and 2 losses.

The ASC is 27-18 (.600) in playoff games since 1999 in inter-conference matchups. The ASC team usually loses to a purple or a Wesley blue.

Agreed---was just posting a few "what if the bracket was actually done differently" ideas!  The big question I guess is are we looking at another 2nd round matchup between (potentially) Linfield and the winner of the ASC rematch?

[Ralph Turner]

+1! M'Cat. 

I think that we will have a NWC ASC 2nd round game, again! 

If I were a NWC team that was not going to host in the first round, I would take my chances on getting a more favorable draw than what I would likely get versus an ASC or WIAC or MIAC or even an IIAC.