Pool C -- 2015

[MonroviaCat]

+1! M'Cat. 

I think that we will have a NWC ASC 2nd round game, again! 

If I were a NWC team that was not going to host in the first round, I would take my chances on getting a more favorable draw than what I would likely get versus an ASC or WIAC or MIAC or even an IIAC.

Not sure I understand what you are saying...but if you are an NWC team that is not hosting the first round then you are probably rematching an NWC team that is hosting a first round game....and I'm not sure that is any better than being shipped to the ASC, WIAC, or MIAC....

[wally_wabash]

Some games to keep an eye on in Week 10, starred teams here can clinch Pool A bids with a win:

Salisbury @ *Wesley
*Wheaton @ Illinois Wesleyan
*Thomas More @ *Case Western Reserve
Hampden-Sydney @ Guilford
Utica @ Alfred
St. John's @ Bethel
Albright @ Stevenson
Hardin-Simmons @ East Texas Baptist

And some other games where we may see automatic bids clinched:
F&M @ *Johns Hopkins
*Husson @ *Norwich
Defiance @ *Franklin
*Dubuque @ Coe
*St. Lawrence @ Hobart
*Framingham State @ Bridgewater State
Carleton @ *St. Thomas
Puget Sound @ *Linfield (you thought I wouldn't get it in there, but here it is...your dc1 West Coast Special™)
Catholic @ *Washington & Lee
*Berry @ Birmingham-Southern
*La Verne @ Pomona-Pitzer
Maryville @ *Huntingdon
*UW-Oshkosh @ UW-La Crosse

We should get half or so of the Pool A spots filled this weekend. 

[art76]

This might be helpful to folks - I took the 32 teams that Wally projects as in and divided them by region - I hope I got everyone in the right spots.

West
Dubuque
St. Thomas
St. Norbert
Linfield
LaVerne
St. Scholastica
UW Oshkosh
UW Whitewater
St. John's
Whitworth

North
Wheaton
Franklin
Albion
Lakeland
Wabash
Mount Union
Illinois Wesleyan

East
Husson
Cortland State
St. Lawreence
Delaware Valley
Framingham State
Western NE
Wesley
Albright

South
Johns Hopkins
Washington and Lee
Thomas More
Berry
Huntingdon
Hardin-Simmons
Mary-Hardin Baylor

Hopefully I put the teams in the correct regions. I've italicized the at-large bids. We know that the committee does not have to stay to strict match ups within regions and one can easily see in this kind of representation that the West has too many teams and the South doesn't have enough, that the East has one too many and the North is one shy. So put yourself in the committee's shoes - how do they get as balanced of a 32 team bracket as possible? The West is loaded - send Whitewater to the North region, LaVerne to the South, as well as the Southern most Eastern team making the South the "misfit" region this year. Another possibility would be to send Dubuque into the South, keep Whitewater in the West  and then put that one Eastern region team in the North region bracket. However you cut it, the West is getting shafted because of the collective strength of the teams, not to mention the number of teams making the cut. 

Edit: Moved Johns Hopkins into the South as per Wally's comment. So now the East is set at 8, and the North and South are shy by one. Just ship a West team into each region and we're done - ha! 

[wally_wabash]

On the island teams...

While I just projected Whitworth to be in the field my feeling is that over the next 10 days Whitworth will get shuffled behind Platteville (I expect that Platteville will pick up North Central as an RRO win in the final set of rankings) and won't be in the tournament.  So that'll leave you with the standard SCIAC/NWC arrangement.  We know the committee is mandated to minimize flights.  So when we have a pair of second round teams guaranteed to be on islands (Texas and the west coast winner), you almost have to stick them in the same pod (one guaranteed second round flight vs. two if you break them up). 

Now, as to where that game would be played- I still think that the Texas winner would go play at Linfield this year, despite what the rankings say.  All we know is that West 3 is ranked lower than West 1 and 2.  We don't know that West 3 is ranked lower than South 1 or 3.  I think Linfield's run to the semis last year would be honored in a game vs. Hardin-Simmons and Linfield would stay home for round 2. 

[Weak Safety]

The ASC/south could potentially be very interesting. 

If TLU loses one of the last 2 games and HSU and UMHB win out, I assume TLU falls out of the regional rankings.  Does a 9-1 UMHB still make it in with what I assume would be a lower strength of schedule and dropping their win over a RRO? (I don't really know how those calculations work). 

If HSU loses one of the last 2 games and UMHB wins out, who gets in?  9-1 HSU? 9-1 UMHB? Both?

[wally_wabash]

art-

Nice work.  Hopkins is South, otherwise it looks good. 

Re: the number of West region teams- I haven't mapped this out to see it all visually (yet), but Dubuque, St. Norbert, and Whitewater all play pretty well with Midwestern North region teams.  I think there's some mixing and matching that could be done here to balance things out a bit. 

[wally_wabash]

The ASC/south could potentially be very interesting. 

If TLU loses one of the last 2 games and HSU and UMHB win out, I assume TLU falls out of the regional rankings.  Does a 9-1 UMHB still make it in with what I assume would be a lower strength of schedule and dropping their win over a RRO? (I don't really know how those calculations work). 

If HSU loses one of the last 2 games and UMHB wins out, who gets in?  9-1 HSU? 9-1 UMHB? Both?

I would still honor the h2h and grant that Pool B bid to Hardin-Simmons, however that is an interesting scenario and one where the committee could flip the UMHB/HSU order if they felt they could justify it through other criteria like SOS (which actually favors HSU) and results vs. common opponents. 

If TLU loses, they would definitely fall out of the rankings and UMHB would lose their RRO win.  That's not good news, but I'm not sure it would keep UMHB out.  Depends on what happens elsewhere and how other teams' at-large profiles change over the next couple of weeks. 

[Coolrey]

I don't see TLU losing the last 2 games.  Of course, they could, but if they play well and don't make mistakes, they should handle the last two opponents.  What will be interesting to see is if TLU works itself back into Pool C consideration if a couple of those ahead of them in the South drop a game and they move up.  That loss to Hardin-Simmons in the last minute or so of the game was crucial.

[Weak Safety]

Thanks Wally!  Really enjoy this thread.

Royal, I agree.  All three teams should win out.  I was just curious how fragile a really good UMHB team is with their SOS that seems to be lower than others.  Didn't know if that coupled with the loss of a RRO (not that I really see it happening) would keep them out.

I would love to see three TX teams in, if for no other reason than to allow one team to escape the TX sub-bracket.

[John Dust]

North
Illinois Wesleyan 7-1 .550      Wheaton 8-0      North Park 2-6
John Carroll 7-1 .442         Otterbein 4-4      Mount Union 8-0
Olivet 7-1 .512                         Concordia Wis 3-5   Alma 5-3
DePauw 7-1 .400                Oberlin 3-5      Wabash 8-0
Rose-Hulman 7-1 .482             MSJ 5-3               Earlham 0-9

East
Albright 7-1 .472         Stevenson 7-1    Lebanon Valley 4-4
Stevenson 7-1 .467         Albright 7-1      FDU 3-5

South
Mary Hardin-Baylor 7-1 .476      Howard Payne 1-7             ESB 6-2
Moravian 7-1 .518                  Juniata 3-5                Muhlenberg 6-2
Guilford 7-1 .447                  Hampden-Sydney 6-2    Emory And Henry 5-3
Maryville 7-1 .487                  Huntington 7-1            Greensboro 2-6

West
Waterwater 7-1 .538      Rivers Fall 4-4           Stout 2-6
St. Johns 7-1 .569          Bethel 5-3      St. Olaf 2-7
Whitworth 7-1 .541         Willamette 2-5    Lewis and Clark 0-7
Wartburg 7-1 .499         Simpson 3-5      Loras 4-4

[ExTartanPlayer]

What will be interesting to see is if TLU works itself back into Pool C consideration if a couple of those ahead of them in the South drop a game and they move up. 

Probably not happening unless both Moravian and Guilford lose another game and TLU also has to hope that they aren't leapfrogged by anyone further down (if Case Western beats Thomas More this weekend, the placement of CWRU and TMC in the poll will be interesting).  It just doesn't look good for anyone who will be the third team up from their region (outside of the West) because the West is deep with four very strong candidates.  If you're third or fourth to the board from anywhere else, you are toast.

[crufootball]

Thanks Wally!  Really enjoy this thread.

Royal, I agree.  All three teams should win out.  I was just curious how fragile a really good UMHB team is with their SOS that seems to be lower than others.  Didn't know if that coupled with the loss of a RRO (not that I really see it happening) would keep them out.

I would love to see three TX teams in, if for no other reason than to allow one team to escape the TX sub-bracket.

Even when Texas did get 3 teams in, we didn't escape the Texas Sub-Bracket. Trinity hosted McMurry with the winner playing UMHB who had to beat Redlands in the 1st round. This year even if it did happen you can bet that UMHB would TLU and then play the winner of HSU and other team.

[Ron Boerger]

I don't see TLU losing the last 2 games.  Of course, they could, but if they play well and don't make mistakes, they should handle the last two opponents.  What will be interesting to see is if TLU works itself back into Pool C consideration if a couple of those ahead of them in the South drop a game and they move up.  That loss to Hardin-Simmons in the last minute or so of the game was crucial.

Can't see them losing either, but there are so many other teams across the country that would have to drop games for TLU to be in the picture again, it's not just getting to the table in the South, it's being able to have the advantage over the teams at the other regional tables if and when you do.

[wally_wabash]

Thanks Wally!  Really enjoy this thread.

Royal, I agree.  All three teams should win out.  I was just curious how fragile a really good UMHB team is with their SOS that seems to be lower than others.  Didn't know if that coupled with the loss of a RRO (not that I really see it happening) would keep them out.

I would love to see three TX teams in, if for no other reason than to allow one team to escape the TX sub-bracket.

Even when Texas did get 3 teams in, we didn't escape the Texas Sub-Bracket. Trinity hosted McMurry with the winner playing UMHB who had to beat Redlands in the 1st round. This year even if it did happen you can bet that UMHB would TLU and then play the winner of HSU and other team.

I think in this scenario TLU would almost certainly go back to Hardin-Simmons and some random team would be brought in to play UMHB, with the winners of those two games being paired up. 

But as Ron has pointed out, TLU is really not close to being in at this point and they have teams behind them that can add to their profiles whereas TLU is kind of in neutral over these last two weeks. 

[smedindy]

If IWU loses to Wheaton, they have two losses and that may shake things up a bit and allow a Moravian to sneak in. That also may the only hope Platteville has, too.